The Kelly Capital Growth Investment Criterion

The Kelly Capital Growth Investment Criterion

Author: Leonard C. MacLean

Publisher: World Scientific

Published: 2011

Total Pages: 883

ISBN-13: 9814293490

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This volume provides the definitive treatment of fortune's formula or the Kelly capital growth criterion as it is often called. The strategy is to maximize long run wealth of the investor by maximizing the period by period expected utility of wealth with a logarithmic utility function. Mathematical theorems show that only the log utility function maximizes asymptotic long run wealth and minimizes the expected time to arbitrary large goals. In general, the strategy is risky in the short term but as the number of bets increase, the Kelly bettor's wealth tends to be much larger than those with essentially different strategies. So most of the time, the Kelly bettor will have much more wealth than these other bettors but the Kelly strategy can lead to considerable losses a small percent of the time. There are ways to reduce this risk at the cost of lower expected final wealth using fractional Kelly strategies that blend the Kelly suggested wager with cash. The various classic reprinted papers and the new ones written specifically for this volume cover various aspects of the theory and practice of dynamic investing. Good and bad properties are discussed, as are fixed-mix and volatility induced growth strategies. The relationships with utility theory and the use of these ideas by great investors are featured.


Book Synopsis The Kelly Capital Growth Investment Criterion by : Leonard C. MacLean

Download or read book The Kelly Capital Growth Investment Criterion written by Leonard C. MacLean and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2011 with total page 883 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume provides the definitive treatment of fortune's formula or the Kelly capital growth criterion as it is often called. The strategy is to maximize long run wealth of the investor by maximizing the period by period expected utility of wealth with a logarithmic utility function. Mathematical theorems show that only the log utility function maximizes asymptotic long run wealth and minimizes the expected time to arbitrary large goals. In general, the strategy is risky in the short term but as the number of bets increase, the Kelly bettor's wealth tends to be much larger than those with essentially different strategies. So most of the time, the Kelly bettor will have much more wealth than these other bettors but the Kelly strategy can lead to considerable losses a small percent of the time. There are ways to reduce this risk at the cost of lower expected final wealth using fractional Kelly strategies that blend the Kelly suggested wager with cash. The various classic reprinted papers and the new ones written specifically for this volume cover various aspects of the theory and practice of dynamic investing. Good and bad properties are discussed, as are fixed-mix and volatility induced growth strategies. The relationships with utility theory and the use of these ideas by great investors are featured.

Handbook of Portfolio Construction

Handbook of Portfolio Construction

Author: John B. Guerard, Jr.

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2009-12-12

Total Pages: 794

ISBN-13: 0387774394

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Portfolio construction is fundamental to the investment management process. In the 1950s, Harry Markowitz demonstrated the benefits of efficient diversification by formulating a mathematical program for generating the "efficient frontier" to summarize optimal trade-offs between expected return and risk. The Markowitz framework continues to be used as a basis for both practical portfolio construction and emerging research in financial economics. Such concepts as the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and the Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT), for example, provide the foundation for setting benchmarks, for predicting returns and risk, and for performance measurement. This volume showcases original essays by some of today’s most prominent academics and practitioners in the field on the contemporary application of Markowitz techniques. Covering a wide spectrum of topics, including portfolio selection, data mining tests, and multi-factor risk models, the book presents a comprehensive approach to portfolio construction tools, models, frameworks, and analyses, with both practical and theoretical implications.


Book Synopsis Handbook of Portfolio Construction by : John B. Guerard, Jr.

Download or read book Handbook of Portfolio Construction written by John B. Guerard, Jr. and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2009-12-12 with total page 794 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Portfolio construction is fundamental to the investment management process. In the 1950s, Harry Markowitz demonstrated the benefits of efficient diversification by formulating a mathematical program for generating the "efficient frontier" to summarize optimal trade-offs between expected return and risk. The Markowitz framework continues to be used as a basis for both practical portfolio construction and emerging research in financial economics. Such concepts as the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and the Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT), for example, provide the foundation for setting benchmarks, for predicting returns and risk, and for performance measurement. This volume showcases original essays by some of today’s most prominent academics and practitioners in the field on the contemporary application of Markowitz techniques. Covering a wide spectrum of topics, including portfolio selection, data mining tests, and multi-factor risk models, the book presents a comprehensive approach to portfolio construction tools, models, frameworks, and analyses, with both practical and theoretical implications.

Controlled Markov Processes

Controlled Markov Processes

Author: E. B. Dynkin

Publisher: Springer

Published: 1980-02-02

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13: 9781461567462

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This book is devoted to the systematic exposition of the contemporary theory of controlled Markov processes with discrete time parameter or in another termi nology multistage Markovian decision processes. We discuss the applications of this theory to various concrete problems. Particular attention is paid to mathe matical models of economic planning, taking account of stochastic factors. The authors strove to construct the exposition in such a way that a reader interested in the applications can get through the book with a minimal mathe matical apparatus. On the other hand, a mathematician will find, in the appropriate chapters, a rigorous theory of general control models, based on advanced measure theory, analytic set theory, measurable selection theorems, and so forth. We have abstained from the manner of presentation of many mathematical monographs, in which one presents immediately the most general situation and only then discusses simpler special cases and examples. Wishing to separate out difficulties, we introduce new concepts and ideas in the simplest setting, where they already begin to work. Thus, before considering control problems on an infinite time interval, we investigate in detail the case of the finite interval. Here we first study in detail models with finite state and action spaces-a case not requiring a departure from the realm of elementary mathematics, and at the same time illustrating the most important principles of the theory.


Book Synopsis Controlled Markov Processes by : E. B. Dynkin

Download or read book Controlled Markov Processes written by E. B. Dynkin and published by Springer. This book was released on 1980-02-02 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is devoted to the systematic exposition of the contemporary theory of controlled Markov processes with discrete time parameter or in another termi nology multistage Markovian decision processes. We discuss the applications of this theory to various concrete problems. Particular attention is paid to mathe matical models of economic planning, taking account of stochastic factors. The authors strove to construct the exposition in such a way that a reader interested in the applications can get through the book with a minimal mathe matical apparatus. On the other hand, a mathematician will find, in the appropriate chapters, a rigorous theory of general control models, based on advanced measure theory, analytic set theory, measurable selection theorems, and so forth. We have abstained from the manner of presentation of many mathematical monographs, in which one presents immediately the most general situation and only then discusses simpler special cases and examples. Wishing to separate out difficulties, we introduce new concepts and ideas in the simplest setting, where they already begin to work. Thus, before considering control problems on an infinite time interval, we investigate in detail the case of the finite interval. Here we first study in detail models with finite state and action spaces-a case not requiring a departure from the realm of elementary mathematics, and at the same time illustrating the most important principles of the theory.

Intelligent Information and Database Systems

Intelligent Information and Database Systems

Author: Ngoc Thanh Nguyen

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2018-03-03

Total Pages: 721

ISBN-13: 3319754173

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The two-volume set LNAI 10751 and 10752 constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 10th Asian Conference on Intelligent Information and Database Systems, ACIIDS 2018, held in Dong Hoi City, Vietnam, in March 2018. The total of 133 full papers accepted for publication in these proceedings was carefully reviewed and selected from 423 submissions. They were organized in topical sections named: Knowledge Engineering and Semantic Web; Social Networks and Recommender Systems; Text Processing and Information Retrieval; Machine Learning and Data Mining; Decision Support and Control Systems; Computer Vision Techniques; Advanced Data Mining Techniques and Applications; Multiple Model Approach to Machine Learning; Sensor Networks and Internet of Things; Intelligent Information Systems; Data Structures Modeling for Knowledge Representation; Modeling, Storing, and Querying of Graph Data; Data Science and Computational Intelligence; Design Thinking Based R&D, Development Technique, and Project Based Learning; Intelligent and Contextual Systems; Intelligent Systems and Algorithms in Information Sciences; Intelligent Applications of Internet of Thing and Data Analysis Technologies; Intelligent Systems and Methods in Biomedicine; Intelligent Biomarkers of Neurodegenerative Processes in Brain; Analysis of Image, Video and Motion Data in Life Sciences; Computational Imaging and Vision; Computer Vision and Robotics; Intelligent Computer Vision Systems and Applications; Intelligent Systems for Optimization of Logistics and Industrial Applications.


Book Synopsis Intelligent Information and Database Systems by : Ngoc Thanh Nguyen

Download or read book Intelligent Information and Database Systems written by Ngoc Thanh Nguyen and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-03-03 with total page 721 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The two-volume set LNAI 10751 and 10752 constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 10th Asian Conference on Intelligent Information and Database Systems, ACIIDS 2018, held in Dong Hoi City, Vietnam, in March 2018. The total of 133 full papers accepted for publication in these proceedings was carefully reviewed and selected from 423 submissions. They were organized in topical sections named: Knowledge Engineering and Semantic Web; Social Networks and Recommender Systems; Text Processing and Information Retrieval; Machine Learning and Data Mining; Decision Support and Control Systems; Computer Vision Techniques; Advanced Data Mining Techniques and Applications; Multiple Model Approach to Machine Learning; Sensor Networks and Internet of Things; Intelligent Information Systems; Data Structures Modeling for Knowledge Representation; Modeling, Storing, and Querying of Graph Data; Data Science and Computational Intelligence; Design Thinking Based R&D, Development Technique, and Project Based Learning; Intelligent and Contextual Systems; Intelligent Systems and Algorithms in Information Sciences; Intelligent Applications of Internet of Thing and Data Analysis Technologies; Intelligent Systems and Methods in Biomedicine; Intelligent Biomarkers of Neurodegenerative Processes in Brain; Analysis of Image, Video and Motion Data in Life Sciences; Computational Imaging and Vision; Computer Vision and Robotics; Intelligent Computer Vision Systems and Applications; Intelligent Systems for Optimization of Logistics and Industrial Applications.

Great Investment Ideas

Great Investment Ideas

Author: William T Ziemba

Publisher: World Scientific Publishing Company

Published: 2016-09-08

Total Pages: 297

ISBN-13: 9813144386

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Great Investment Ideas is a collection of articles published in the Journal of Portfolio Management from 1993 to 2015. The book contains useful ideas for investment management and trading and discusses the methods, results and evaluation of great investors. It also covers important topics such as the effect of errors in means, variances and co-variances in portfolio selection problems, stock market crashes and stock market anomalies, portfolio theory and practice, evaluation theory, etc. This book is a must-have publication for investors and financial experts, researchers and graduate students in finance.


Book Synopsis Great Investment Ideas by : William T Ziemba

Download or read book Great Investment Ideas written by William T Ziemba and published by World Scientific Publishing Company. This book was released on 2016-09-08 with total page 297 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Great Investment Ideas is a collection of articles published in the Journal of Portfolio Management from 1993 to 2015. The book contains useful ideas for investment management and trading and discusses the methods, results and evaluation of great investors. It also covers important topics such as the effect of errors in means, variances and co-variances in portfolio selection problems, stock market crashes and stock market anomalies, portfolio theory and practice, evaluation theory, etc. This book is a must-have publication for investors and financial experts, researchers and graduate students in finance.

Handbook Of Applied Investment Research

Handbook Of Applied Investment Research

Author: John B Guerard Jr

Publisher: World Scientific

Published: 2020-10-02

Total Pages: 817

ISBN-13: 9811222649

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This book introduces the readers to the rapidly growing literature and latest results on financial, fundamental and seasonal anomalies, stock selection modeling and portfolio management. Fifty years ago, finance professors taught the Efficient Markets Hypothesis which states that the average investor could not outperform the stock market based on technical, seasonal and fundamental data. Many, if not most faculty and investors, no longer share that opinion. In this book, the authors report original empirical evidence that applied investment research can produce statistically significant stock selection and excess portfolio returns in the US, and larger excess returns in international and emerging markets.


Book Synopsis Handbook Of Applied Investment Research by : John B Guerard Jr

Download or read book Handbook Of Applied Investment Research written by John B Guerard Jr and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2020-10-02 with total page 817 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book introduces the readers to the rapidly growing literature and latest results on financial, fundamental and seasonal anomalies, stock selection modeling and portfolio management. Fifty years ago, finance professors taught the Efficient Markets Hypothesis which states that the average investor could not outperform the stock market based on technical, seasonal and fundamental data. Many, if not most faculty and investors, no longer share that opinion. In this book, the authors report original empirical evidence that applied investment research can produce statistically significant stock selection and excess portfolio returns in the US, and larger excess returns in international and emerging markets.

Probability Models for Economic Decisions, second edition

Probability Models for Economic Decisions, second edition

Author: Roger B. Myerson

Publisher: MIT Press

Published: 2019-12-17

Total Pages: 568

ISBN-13: 0262355604

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An introduction to the use of probability models for analyzing risk and economic decisions, using spreadsheets to represent and simulate uncertainty. This textbook offers an introduction to the use of probability models for analyzing risks and economic decisions. It takes a learn-by-doing approach, teaching the student to use spreadsheets to represent and simulate uncertainty and to analyze the effect of such uncertainty on an economic decision. Students in applied business and economics can more easily grasp difficult analytical methods with Excel spreadsheets. The book covers the basic ideas of probability, how to simulate random variables, and how to compute conditional probabilities via Monte Carlo simulation. The first four chapters use a large collection of probability distributions to simulate a range of problems involving worker efficiency, market entry, oil exploration, repeated investment, and subjective belief elicitation. The book then covers correlation and multivariate normal random variables; conditional expectation; optimization of decision variables, with discussions of the strategic value of information, decision trees, game theory, and adverse selection; risk sharing and finance; dynamic models of growth; dynamic models of arrivals; and model risk. New material in this second edition includes two new chapters on additional dynamic models and model risk; new sections in every chapter; many new end-of-chapter exercises; and coverage of such topics as simulation model workflow, models of probabilistic electoral forecasting, and real options. The book comes equipped with Simtools, an open-source, free software used througout the book, which allows students to conduct Monte Carlo simulations seamlessly in Excel.


Book Synopsis Probability Models for Economic Decisions, second edition by : Roger B. Myerson

Download or read book Probability Models for Economic Decisions, second edition written by Roger B. Myerson and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2019-12-17 with total page 568 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An introduction to the use of probability models for analyzing risk and economic decisions, using spreadsheets to represent and simulate uncertainty. This textbook offers an introduction to the use of probability models for analyzing risks and economic decisions. It takes a learn-by-doing approach, teaching the student to use spreadsheets to represent and simulate uncertainty and to analyze the effect of such uncertainty on an economic decision. Students in applied business and economics can more easily grasp difficult analytical methods with Excel spreadsheets. The book covers the basic ideas of probability, how to simulate random variables, and how to compute conditional probabilities via Monte Carlo simulation. The first four chapters use a large collection of probability distributions to simulate a range of problems involving worker efficiency, market entry, oil exploration, repeated investment, and subjective belief elicitation. The book then covers correlation and multivariate normal random variables; conditional expectation; optimization of decision variables, with discussions of the strategic value of information, decision trees, game theory, and adverse selection; risk sharing and finance; dynamic models of growth; dynamic models of arrivals; and model risk. New material in this second edition includes two new chapters on additional dynamic models and model risk; new sections in every chapter; many new end-of-chapter exercises; and coverage of such topics as simulation model workflow, models of probabilistic electoral forecasting, and real options. The book comes equipped with Simtools, an open-source, free software used througout the book, which allows students to conduct Monte Carlo simulations seamlessly in Excel.

Risk-Sensitive Investment Management

Risk-Sensitive Investment Management

Author: Mark H A Davis

Publisher: World Scientific

Published: 2014-07-21

Total Pages: 416

ISBN-13: 9814578061

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Over the last two decades, risk-sensitive control has evolved into an innovative and successful framework for solving dynamically a wide range of practical investment management problems. This book shows how to use risk-sensitive investment management to manage portfolios against an investment benchmark, with constraints, and with assets and liabilities. It also addresses model implementation issues in parameter estimation and numerical methods. Most importantly, it shows how to integrate jump-diffusion processes which are crucial to model market crashes. With its emphasis on the interconnection between mathematical techniques and real-world problems, this book will be of interest to both academic researchers and money managers. Risk-sensitive investment management links stochastic control and portfolio management. Because of its distinct emphasis on integrating advanced theoretical concepts into practical dynamic investment management tools, this book stands out from the existing literature in fundamental ways. It goes beyond mainstream research in portfolio management in a traditional static setting. The theoretical developments build on contemporary research in stochastic control theory, but are informed throughout by the need to construct an effective and practical framework for dynamic portfolio management. This book fills a gap in the literature by connecting mathematical techniques with the real world of investment management. Readers seeking to solve key problems such as benchmarked asset management or asset and liability management will certainly find it useful. Contents:Diffusion Models:The Merton ProblemRisk-Sensitive Asset ManagementManaging Against a BenchmarkAsset and Liability ManagementInvestment ConstraintsInfinite Horizon ProblemsJump-Diffusion Models:Jumps in Asset PricesGeneral Jump-Diffusion SettingFund Separation and Fractional Kelly StrategiesManaging Against a Benchmark: Jump-Diffusion CaseAsset and Liability Management: Jump-Diffusion CaseImplementation:Factor and Securities ModelsCase StudiesNumerical MethodsFactor Estimation: Filtering and Black-Litterman Readership: Professionals, researchers, academics and graduate students in the field of investment management, stochastic optimization, stochastic analysis and probability, and quantitative finance. Key Features:Integrates advanced theoretical concepts into practical dynamic investmentDiscusses practical issues that will be relevant to practitioners, including parameter estimation, investment benchmarks, asset and liabilities management (ALM), investment constraints, and the Kelly criterionPresents a thorough treatment of jump diffusion models, including latest developments regarding classical solutions to jump diffusion control problemsWritten by professors with extensive experience on risk sensitive asset management and the relevant financial industry experienceKeywords:Stochastic Control;Risk Sensitive Control;Dynamic Investment Management;Benchmarked Asset Management;Asset and Liability Management;Jump Diffusion Processes;Lévy Processes;Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman Equations;Classical Solutions;Viscosity Solutions;Kelly Criterion


Book Synopsis Risk-Sensitive Investment Management by : Mark H A Davis

Download or read book Risk-Sensitive Investment Management written by Mark H A Davis and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2014-07-21 with total page 416 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the last two decades, risk-sensitive control has evolved into an innovative and successful framework for solving dynamically a wide range of practical investment management problems. This book shows how to use risk-sensitive investment management to manage portfolios against an investment benchmark, with constraints, and with assets and liabilities. It also addresses model implementation issues in parameter estimation and numerical methods. Most importantly, it shows how to integrate jump-diffusion processes which are crucial to model market crashes. With its emphasis on the interconnection between mathematical techniques and real-world problems, this book will be of interest to both academic researchers and money managers. Risk-sensitive investment management links stochastic control and portfolio management. Because of its distinct emphasis on integrating advanced theoretical concepts into practical dynamic investment management tools, this book stands out from the existing literature in fundamental ways. It goes beyond mainstream research in portfolio management in a traditional static setting. The theoretical developments build on contemporary research in stochastic control theory, but are informed throughout by the need to construct an effective and practical framework for dynamic portfolio management. This book fills a gap in the literature by connecting mathematical techniques with the real world of investment management. Readers seeking to solve key problems such as benchmarked asset management or asset and liability management will certainly find it useful. Contents:Diffusion Models:The Merton ProblemRisk-Sensitive Asset ManagementManaging Against a BenchmarkAsset and Liability ManagementInvestment ConstraintsInfinite Horizon ProblemsJump-Diffusion Models:Jumps in Asset PricesGeneral Jump-Diffusion SettingFund Separation and Fractional Kelly StrategiesManaging Against a Benchmark: Jump-Diffusion CaseAsset and Liability Management: Jump-Diffusion CaseImplementation:Factor and Securities ModelsCase StudiesNumerical MethodsFactor Estimation: Filtering and Black-Litterman Readership: Professionals, researchers, academics and graduate students in the field of investment management, stochastic optimization, stochastic analysis and probability, and quantitative finance. Key Features:Integrates advanced theoretical concepts into practical dynamic investmentDiscusses practical issues that will be relevant to practitioners, including parameter estimation, investment benchmarks, asset and liabilities management (ALM), investment constraints, and the Kelly criterionPresents a thorough treatment of jump diffusion models, including latest developments regarding classical solutions to jump diffusion control problemsWritten by professors with extensive experience on risk sensitive asset management and the relevant financial industry experienceKeywords:Stochastic Control;Risk Sensitive Control;Dynamic Investment Management;Benchmarked Asset Management;Asset and Liability Management;Jump Diffusion Processes;Lévy Processes;Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman Equations;Classical Solutions;Viscosity Solutions;Kelly Criterion

Design of Innovation Processes

Design of Innovation Processes

Author: Darrell Velegol

Publisher: Elsevier

Published: 2023-08-25

Total Pages: 257

ISBN-13: 0323904661

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Design of Innovation Processes: Flow from Idea to Market Launch with Higher Speed and Value, Time after Time introduces the concept of seeing innovation as a type of process manufacturing operation and offers a coherent set of principles that will accelerate innovation in the chemical processing industries. The book provides actionable practices for innovating chemically related products and services faster, and with higher value. The author shows that by coordinating an Integrated Innovation Team (IIT) consisting of R&D, marketing, manufacturing, regulatory, toxicology, analytical, legal, finance, VP-level leadership, sustainability, and other functions, it's possible to increase innovation throughput. The author, Dr. Darrell Velegol, Distinguished Professor of Chemical Engineering at Penn State University, sees ineffective innovation processes as the reason why chemical process industries are growing less than industries like digitech, hence he provides valuable information in this updated resource. Explains, in detail, how to form Integrated Innovation Teams (IIT) Helps identify bottlenecks where innovation processes might be stalling out Suggests valuable questions and multiple hypotheses (VQs and MHs) that help users ask clear questions and test against clearly stated hypotheses


Book Synopsis Design of Innovation Processes by : Darrell Velegol

Download or read book Design of Innovation Processes written by Darrell Velegol and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2023-08-25 with total page 257 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Design of Innovation Processes: Flow from Idea to Market Launch with Higher Speed and Value, Time after Time introduces the concept of seeing innovation as a type of process manufacturing operation and offers a coherent set of principles that will accelerate innovation in the chemical processing industries. The book provides actionable practices for innovating chemically related products and services faster, and with higher value. The author shows that by coordinating an Integrated Innovation Team (IIT) consisting of R&D, marketing, manufacturing, regulatory, toxicology, analytical, legal, finance, VP-level leadership, sustainability, and other functions, it's possible to increase innovation throughput. The author, Dr. Darrell Velegol, Distinguished Professor of Chemical Engineering at Penn State University, sees ineffective innovation processes as the reason why chemical process industries are growing less than industries like digitech, hence he provides valuable information in this updated resource. Explains, in detail, how to form Integrated Innovation Teams (IIT) Helps identify bottlenecks where innovation processes might be stalling out Suggests valuable questions and multiple hypotheses (VQs and MHs) that help users ask clear questions and test against clearly stated hypotheses