2023 Global Financial Turbulence and Economic Outlook

2023 Global Financial Turbulence and Economic Outlook

Author: Jiandong Ju

Publisher: Springer Nature

Published:

Total Pages: 129

ISBN-13: 9819702062

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Book Synopsis 2023 Global Financial Turbulence and Economic Outlook by : Jiandong Ju

Download or read book 2023 Global Financial Turbulence and Economic Outlook written by Jiandong Ju and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on with total page 129 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:


The Global Financial Crisis - Explaining Cross-Country Differences in the Output Impact

The Global Financial Crisis - Explaining Cross-Country Differences in the Output Impact

Author: Pelin Berkmen

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2009-12-01

Total Pages: 21

ISBN-13: 1451874251

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We provide one of the first attempts at explaining the differences in the crisis impact across developing countries and emerging markets. Using cross-country regressions to explain the factors driving growth forecast revisions after the eruption of the global crisis, we find that a small set of variables explain a large share of the variation in growth revisions. Countries with more leveraged domestic financial systems and more rapid credit growth tended to suffer larger downward revisions to their growth outlooks. For emerging markets, this financial channel trumps the trade channel. For a broader set of developing countries, however, the trade channel seems to have mattered, with countries exporting more advanced manufacturing goods more affected than those exporting food. Exchange-rate flexibility clearly helped in buffering the impact of the shock. There is also some -weaker-evidence that countries with a stronger fiscal position prior to the crisis were hit less severely. We find little evidence for the importance of other policy variables.


Book Synopsis The Global Financial Crisis - Explaining Cross-Country Differences in the Output Impact by : Pelin Berkmen

Download or read book The Global Financial Crisis - Explaining Cross-Country Differences in the Output Impact written by Pelin Berkmen and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2009-12-01 with total page 21 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We provide one of the first attempts at explaining the differences in the crisis impact across developing countries and emerging markets. Using cross-country regressions to explain the factors driving growth forecast revisions after the eruption of the global crisis, we find that a small set of variables explain a large share of the variation in growth revisions. Countries with more leveraged domestic financial systems and more rapid credit growth tended to suffer larger downward revisions to their growth outlooks. For emerging markets, this financial channel trumps the trade channel. For a broader set of developing countries, however, the trade channel seems to have mattered, with countries exporting more advanced manufacturing goods more affected than those exporting food. Exchange-rate flexibility clearly helped in buffering the impact of the shock. There is also some -weaker-evidence that countries with a stronger fiscal position prior to the crisis were hit less severely. We find little evidence for the importance of other policy variables.


Financial Crises, Investment Slumps, and Slow Recoveries

Financial Crises, Investment Slumps, and Slow Recoveries

Author: Ms. Valerie Cerra

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2021-06-25

Total Pages: 30

ISBN-13: 1484325273

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One of the most puzzling facts in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) is that output across advanced and emerging economies recovered at a much slower rate than anticipated by most forecasting agencies. This paper delves into the mechanics behind the observed slow recovery and the associated permanent output losses in the aftermath of the crisis, with a particular focus on the role played by financial frictions and investment dynamics. The paper provides two main contributions. First, we empirically document that lower investment during financial crises is the key factor leading to permanent loss of output and total factor productivity (TFP) in the wake of a crisis. Second, we develop a DSGE model with financial frictions and capital-embodied technological change capable of reproducing the empirical facts. We also evaluate the role of financial policies in stabilizing output and TFP in response to disruptions in financial markets.


Book Synopsis Financial Crises, Investment Slumps, and Slow Recoveries by : Ms. Valerie Cerra

Download or read book Financial Crises, Investment Slumps, and Slow Recoveries written by Ms. Valerie Cerra and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-06-25 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: One of the most puzzling facts in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) is that output across advanced and emerging economies recovered at a much slower rate than anticipated by most forecasting agencies. This paper delves into the mechanics behind the observed slow recovery and the associated permanent output losses in the aftermath of the crisis, with a particular focus on the role played by financial frictions and investment dynamics. The paper provides two main contributions. First, we empirically document that lower investment during financial crises is the key factor leading to permanent loss of output and total factor productivity (TFP) in the wake of a crisis. Second, we develop a DSGE model with financial frictions and capital-embodied technological change capable of reproducing the empirical facts. We also evaluate the role of financial policies in stabilizing output and TFP in response to disruptions in financial markets.


Aftershock

Aftershock

Author: David Wiedemer

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

Published: 2015-07-07

Total Pages: 400

ISBN-13: 1119118506

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Secure your financial future before the next big bubble bursts Aftershock provides a definitive look at the economic climate still ahead in 2015—and beyond—and details the steps you can take now to secure your financial future. Written by the authors who accurately predicted the financial crisis of 2008 and 2009, this book serves as both a warning and a game plan for investors looking to avoid catastrophic loss. This updated fourth edition has been expanded with new actionable insights about protection and profits in an increasingly confusing investment environment, and includes the latest data, updated charts and tables, and brand new coverage of monetary stimulus. With a look back at the domino fall of the conjoined real estate, stock, and private debt bubbles that triggered the last major crisis, this book paints a vivid picture of what to expect the next time the world's economy pops. You'll learn how to protect your assets before and during the coming fall, and how to capitalize on the opportunities everyone else is missing. The housing bubble has popped, toppling banks and sending shockwaves of stock market misery around the world. It may seem like the worst is over. It's not. This book shows you what's still to come, and how to ride the crest instead of being sucked under. Learn when, why, and how the global bubble will burst Understand the repercussions that will reach into your accounts Get up to date on the data, with expert analysis and insight Start protecting yourself now with a few smart investment moves The stock market, real estate, consumer spending, private debt, dollar, and government debt bubbles will burst, driving up unemployment, devaluing the dollar, and causing deep global recession. Aftershock helps you fortify your assets before the wave so you can enjoy clear skies after the storm.


Book Synopsis Aftershock by : David Wiedemer

Download or read book Aftershock written by David Wiedemer and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2015-07-07 with total page 400 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Secure your financial future before the next big bubble bursts Aftershock provides a definitive look at the economic climate still ahead in 2015—and beyond—and details the steps you can take now to secure your financial future. Written by the authors who accurately predicted the financial crisis of 2008 and 2009, this book serves as both a warning and a game plan for investors looking to avoid catastrophic loss. This updated fourth edition has been expanded with new actionable insights about protection and profits in an increasingly confusing investment environment, and includes the latest data, updated charts and tables, and brand new coverage of monetary stimulus. With a look back at the domino fall of the conjoined real estate, stock, and private debt bubbles that triggered the last major crisis, this book paints a vivid picture of what to expect the next time the world's economy pops. You'll learn how to protect your assets before and during the coming fall, and how to capitalize on the opportunities everyone else is missing. The housing bubble has popped, toppling banks and sending shockwaves of stock market misery around the world. It may seem like the worst is over. It's not. This book shows you what's still to come, and how to ride the crest instead of being sucked under. Learn when, why, and how the global bubble will burst Understand the repercussions that will reach into your accounts Get up to date on the data, with expert analysis and insight Start protecting yourself now with a few smart investment moves The stock market, real estate, consumer spending, private debt, dollar, and government debt bubbles will burst, driving up unemployment, devaluing the dollar, and causing deep global recession. Aftershock helps you fortify your assets before the wave so you can enjoy clear skies after the storm.


Aftershock

Aftershock

Author: John David Wiedemer

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

Published: 2014-03-31

Total Pages: 384

ISBN-13: 1118375629

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Offers an analysis of recent economic developments and presents advice on how people can protect themselves and profit when a global economic meltdown occurs.


Book Synopsis Aftershock by : John David Wiedemer

Download or read book Aftershock written by John David Wiedemer and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2014-03-31 with total page 384 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Offers an analysis of recent economic developments and presents advice on how people can protect themselves and profit when a global economic meltdown occurs.


The Global Financial Crisis

The Global Financial Crisis

Author: Noah Berlatsky

Publisher: Greenhaven Publishing LLC

Published: 2010-01-15

Total Pages: 264

ISBN-13: 0737751169

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This book explores possible causes of the global economic crisis, including lack of banking regulation, greed of financial institutions, decisions of the Federal Reserve, and the abandonment of the gold standard. Examines the differing impacts of the crisis on wealthy nations and developing nations, and why some nations are weathering the crisis better than others. Discusses potential solutions to the crisis, such as regulatory reform and lowering restrictions on trade.


Book Synopsis The Global Financial Crisis by : Noah Berlatsky

Download or read book The Global Financial Crisis written by Noah Berlatsky and published by Greenhaven Publishing LLC. This book was released on 2010-01-15 with total page 264 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book explores possible causes of the global economic crisis, including lack of banking regulation, greed of financial institutions, decisions of the Federal Reserve, and the abandonment of the gold standard. Examines the differing impacts of the crisis on wealthy nations and developing nations, and why some nations are weathering the crisis better than others. Discusses potential solutions to the crisis, such as regulatory reform and lowering restrictions on trade.


The Global Financial Crisis

The Global Financial Crisis

Author: S. B. Khandare

Publisher: Createspace Independent Pub

Published: 2014-07-08

Total Pages: 138

ISBN-13: 9781500431020

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In recent years, US sub-prime crisis appeared in mid-2007 which was transformed into a global financial crisis and then into global economic crisis, attracted the attention of all. Although advanced countries remained the epic centre of the crisis but the EMEs have also substantially been affected including India. In case of developed countries, banking and financial crises have been costly to the economy, but these crises seem to be imposed on the developing countries. The spread of financial crisis with a rapid speed shocked the rest of the world with US and Europe. It is now widely accepted that the nearest precedent to this crisis is the 'Great Depression'. In the nineteenth and twentieth centuries many financial crises were associated with banking panics and many recessions coincided with these panics. More than the financial cost, the adverse impact of this crisis on real economy have been severe. In 2009, the world GDP is estimated by the IMF to have contracted by 0.8 percent and the world trade volume is estimated to have declined by 12 percent. The expanse of the crisis has tested all the limits of conventional and unconventional policy options around the world. Interbank markets in advanced economies were the first to be affected by severe liquidity crisis; however India could not be untouched itself from it. Economic growth of India was decelerated in 2008-09 to 6.7 percent. This represented a decline of 2.1 percent from the average growth rate of 8.8 percent in the previous five years. During the initial phase of crisis the impact on Indian financial markets was muted, however, since mid-September of 2008 it became amplified. In 2008-09 the industrial production grow only 2.6 percent comparing to the 7.4 in the previous year, imports fell by 12.2 percent and exports fell by 20 percent at the end of March, 2009. Trade deficit widened from $88.5 billion to $119.1 billion in 2008-09. Current account deficit increased from $17.0 billion to $29.8 billion. Net capital inflows in 2008-09 were 9.1 percent of GDP as of 9.2 percent of GDP in previous year. Present work is a description, narration and analysis of conceptual framework of the related terms. This is a humble attempt to describe and interrelate the two main terms viz. 'Global Financial Crisis' and 'Indian Banking Scenario', after considering, referring, studying and relying on various kinds of Reports, (Annual, Bi-annual, Quarterly and Occasional), Research & Working Papers of various national, international, Government and non-government bodies/authorities, various books, Opinions & published Speeches, Articles etc. It would be useful for student, researchers and readers in International Studies, Economics and Banking & Finance. Hope will be useful as a Reference Book, for the readers with expectation that improvement and suggestions will be communicated.


Book Synopsis The Global Financial Crisis by : S. B. Khandare

Download or read book The Global Financial Crisis written by S. B. Khandare and published by Createspace Independent Pub. This book was released on 2014-07-08 with total page 138 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In recent years, US sub-prime crisis appeared in mid-2007 which was transformed into a global financial crisis and then into global economic crisis, attracted the attention of all. Although advanced countries remained the epic centre of the crisis but the EMEs have also substantially been affected including India. In case of developed countries, banking and financial crises have been costly to the economy, but these crises seem to be imposed on the developing countries. The spread of financial crisis with a rapid speed shocked the rest of the world with US and Europe. It is now widely accepted that the nearest precedent to this crisis is the 'Great Depression'. In the nineteenth and twentieth centuries many financial crises were associated with banking panics and many recessions coincided with these panics. More than the financial cost, the adverse impact of this crisis on real economy have been severe. In 2009, the world GDP is estimated by the IMF to have contracted by 0.8 percent and the world trade volume is estimated to have declined by 12 percent. The expanse of the crisis has tested all the limits of conventional and unconventional policy options around the world. Interbank markets in advanced economies were the first to be affected by severe liquidity crisis; however India could not be untouched itself from it. Economic growth of India was decelerated in 2008-09 to 6.7 percent. This represented a decline of 2.1 percent from the average growth rate of 8.8 percent in the previous five years. During the initial phase of crisis the impact on Indian financial markets was muted, however, since mid-September of 2008 it became amplified. In 2008-09 the industrial production grow only 2.6 percent comparing to the 7.4 in the previous year, imports fell by 12.2 percent and exports fell by 20 percent at the end of March, 2009. Trade deficit widened from $88.5 billion to $119.1 billion in 2008-09. Current account deficit increased from $17.0 billion to $29.8 billion. Net capital inflows in 2008-09 were 9.1 percent of GDP as of 9.2 percent of GDP in previous year. Present work is a description, narration and analysis of conceptual framework of the related terms. This is a humble attempt to describe and interrelate the two main terms viz. 'Global Financial Crisis' and 'Indian Banking Scenario', after considering, referring, studying and relying on various kinds of Reports, (Annual, Bi-annual, Quarterly and Occasional), Research & Working Papers of various national, international, Government and non-government bodies/authorities, various books, Opinions & published Speeches, Articles etc. It would be useful for student, researchers and readers in International Studies, Economics and Banking & Finance. Hope will be useful as a Reference Book, for the readers with expectation that improvement and suggestions will be communicated.


World Economic Outlook, October 2022

World Economic Outlook, October 2022

Author: International Monetary

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2022-10-11

Total Pages: 186

ISBN-13:

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Global economic activity is experiencing a broad-based and sharper-than-expected slowdown, with inflation higher than seen in several decades. The cost-of-living crisis, tightening financial conditions in most regions, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the lingering COVID-19 pandemic all weigh heavily on the outlook. Global growth is forecast to slow from 6.0 percent in 2021 to 3.2 percent in 2022 and 2.7 percent in 2023. This is the weakest growth profile since 2001 except for the global financial crisis and the acute phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. Global inflation is forecast to rise from 4.7 percent in 2021 to 8.8 percent in 2022 but to decline to 6.5 percent in 2023 and to 4.1 percent by 2024. Monetary policy should stay the course to restore price stability, and fiscal policy should aim to alleviate the cost-of-living pressures while maintaining a sufficiently tight stance aligned with monetary policy. Structural reforms can further support the fight against inflation by improving productivity and easing supply constraints, while multilateral cooperation is necessary for fast-tracking the green energy transition and preventing fragmentation.


Book Synopsis World Economic Outlook, October 2022 by : International Monetary

Download or read book World Economic Outlook, October 2022 written by International Monetary and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-10-11 with total page 186 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global economic activity is experiencing a broad-based and sharper-than-expected slowdown, with inflation higher than seen in several decades. The cost-of-living crisis, tightening financial conditions in most regions, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the lingering COVID-19 pandemic all weigh heavily on the outlook. Global growth is forecast to slow from 6.0 percent in 2021 to 3.2 percent in 2022 and 2.7 percent in 2023. This is the weakest growth profile since 2001 except for the global financial crisis and the acute phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. Global inflation is forecast to rise from 4.7 percent in 2021 to 8.8 percent in 2022 but to decline to 6.5 percent in 2023 and to 4.1 percent by 2024. Monetary policy should stay the course to restore price stability, and fiscal policy should aim to alleviate the cost-of-living pressures while maintaining a sufficiently tight stance aligned with monetary policy. Structural reforms can further support the fight against inflation by improving productivity and easing supply constraints, while multilateral cooperation is necessary for fast-tracking the green energy transition and preventing fragmentation.


Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia, May 2023

Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia, May 2023

Author: International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2023-05-03

Total Pages: 44

ISBN-13:

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The economies of the Middle East and Central Asia proved resilient in 2022, despite a series of global shocks. However, this year—and potentially next—growth is expected to slow in the Middle East and North Africa as tight policies to fight inflation, reduce vulnerabilities, and rebuild buffers start to dent economic activity in many countries, and agreed oil production cuts curb growth in oil exporters. Inflation is projected to remain persistent. The outlook for Caucasus and Central Asia countries depends heavily on external factors, namely the impact of monetary tightening, and growth in their main trading partners, the pace of private transfers, and inflows of migrants from Russia. Uncertainty is high, and risks to the baseline are tilted to the downside amid financial stability concerns, particularly in advanced economies amid contagion fears. Policy trade-offs are even more complex, and policymakers will need to calibrate the policy mix carefully to reduce core inflation without triggering financial stress and excessive tightening and continue to provide targeted fiscal support to vulnerable groups while preserving debt sustainability and financial stability. Tight monetary and fiscal policies across the region amid tight global financial conditions call for accelerating structural reforms to bolster potential growth and enhance resilience.


Book Synopsis Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia, May 2023 by : International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Download or read book Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia, May 2023 written by International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-05-03 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The economies of the Middle East and Central Asia proved resilient in 2022, despite a series of global shocks. However, this year—and potentially next—growth is expected to slow in the Middle East and North Africa as tight policies to fight inflation, reduce vulnerabilities, and rebuild buffers start to dent economic activity in many countries, and agreed oil production cuts curb growth in oil exporters. Inflation is projected to remain persistent. The outlook for Caucasus and Central Asia countries depends heavily on external factors, namely the impact of monetary tightening, and growth in their main trading partners, the pace of private transfers, and inflows of migrants from Russia. Uncertainty is high, and risks to the baseline are tilted to the downside amid financial stability concerns, particularly in advanced economies amid contagion fears. Policy trade-offs are even more complex, and policymakers will need to calibrate the policy mix carefully to reduce core inflation without triggering financial stress and excessive tightening and continue to provide targeted fiscal support to vulnerable groups while preserving debt sustainability and financial stability. Tight monetary and fiscal policies across the region amid tight global financial conditions call for accelerating structural reforms to bolster potential growth and enhance resilience.


World Economic Outlook, October 2019

World Economic Outlook, October 2019

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2019-10-15

Total Pages: 208

ISBN-13: 1513516175

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Global growth is forecast at 3.0 percent for 2019, its lowest level since 2008–09 and a 0.3 percentage point downgrade from the April 2019 World Economic Outlook.


Book Synopsis World Economic Outlook, October 2019 by : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Download or read book World Economic Outlook, October 2019 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-10-15 with total page 208 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global growth is forecast at 3.0 percent for 2019, its lowest level since 2008–09 and a 0.3 percentage point downgrade from the April 2019 World Economic Outlook.