A Primer for Risk Measurement of Bonded Debt from the Perspective of a Sovereign Debt Manager

A Primer for Risk Measurement of Bonded Debt from the Perspective of a Sovereign Debt Manager

Author: Michael G. Papaioannou

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2006-08

Total Pages: 54

ISBN-13:

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

This paper presents some conventional and new measures of market, credit, and liquidity risks for government bonds. These measures are analyzed from the perspective of a sovereign's debt manager. In particular, it examines duration, convexity, M-square, skewness, kurtosis, and VaR statistics as measures of interest rate exposure; a VaR statistic as the prominent measure of exchange rate exposure; the balance sheet approach (or contingent claims approach), and its consequent probability of default as the most promising measure of credit risk exposure; and an elasticity approach and a VaR statistic to measure liquidity risk. Along with the formulas for the various statistics proposed, we provide simple examples of their application to some common risk valuation cases. Finally, we present an integrated approach for the simultaneous estimation of a portfolio's interest rate and exchange rate risk using the VaR methodology. The integrated approach is then extended to also include N risk factors. This approach allows us to measure the total risk of a portfolio, provided that the volatilities and correlations among the risk factors can be estimated.


Book Synopsis A Primer for Risk Measurement of Bonded Debt from the Perspective of a Sovereign Debt Manager by : Michael G. Papaioannou

Download or read book A Primer for Risk Measurement of Bonded Debt from the Perspective of a Sovereign Debt Manager written by Michael G. Papaioannou and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2006-08 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents some conventional and new measures of market, credit, and liquidity risks for government bonds. These measures are analyzed from the perspective of a sovereign's debt manager. In particular, it examines duration, convexity, M-square, skewness, kurtosis, and VaR statistics as measures of interest rate exposure; a VaR statistic as the prominent measure of exchange rate exposure; the balance sheet approach (or contingent claims approach), and its consequent probability of default as the most promising measure of credit risk exposure; and an elasticity approach and a VaR statistic to measure liquidity risk. Along with the formulas for the various statistics proposed, we provide simple examples of their application to some common risk valuation cases. Finally, we present an integrated approach for the simultaneous estimation of a portfolio's interest rate and exchange rate risk using the VaR methodology. The integrated approach is then extended to also include N risk factors. This approach allows us to measure the total risk of a portfolio, provided that the volatilities and correlations among the risk factors can be estimated.

A Primer on Managing Sovereign Debt-Portfolio Risks

A Primer on Managing Sovereign Debt-Portfolio Risks

Author: Thordur Jonasson

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2018-04-06

Total Pages: 133

ISBN-13: 1484350545

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

This paper provides an overview of sovereign debt portfolio risks and discusses various liability management operations (LMOs) and instruments used by public debt managers to mitigate these risks. Debt management strategies analyzed in the context of helping reach debt portfolio targets and attain desired portfolio structures. Also, the paper outlines how LMOs could be integrated into a debt management strategy and serve as policy tools to reduce potential debt portfolio vulnerabilities. Further, the paper presents operational issues faced by debt managers, including the need to develop a risk management framework, interactions of debt management with fiscal policy, monetary policy, and financial stability, as well as efficient government bond markets.


Book Synopsis A Primer on Managing Sovereign Debt-Portfolio Risks by : Thordur Jonasson

Download or read book A Primer on Managing Sovereign Debt-Portfolio Risks written by Thordur Jonasson and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-04-06 with total page 133 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides an overview of sovereign debt portfolio risks and discusses various liability management operations (LMOs) and instruments used by public debt managers to mitigate these risks. Debt management strategies analyzed in the context of helping reach debt portfolio targets and attain desired portfolio structures. Also, the paper outlines how LMOs could be integrated into a debt management strategy and serve as policy tools to reduce potential debt portfolio vulnerabilities. Further, the paper presents operational issues faced by debt managers, including the need to develop a risk management framework, interactions of debt management with fiscal policy, monetary policy, and financial stability, as well as efficient government bond markets.

Credit, Currency or Derivatives

Credit, Currency or Derivatives

Author: Michael G. Papaioannou

Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing

Published: 2009-11-13

Total Pages: 578

ISBN-13: 1849506027

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

Contains original papers that examine various issues concerning the role, the structure and functioning of credit, currency and derivatives instruments and markets as they relate to financial crises. This title stresses the importance of the inter-linkages of these instruments and markets in promoting or hindering financial stability or crises.


Book Synopsis Credit, Currency or Derivatives by : Michael G. Papaioannou

Download or read book Credit, Currency or Derivatives written by Michael G. Papaioannou and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2009-11-13 with total page 578 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Contains original papers that examine various issues concerning the role, the structure and functioning of credit, currency and derivatives instruments and markets as they relate to financial crises. This title stresses the importance of the inter-linkages of these instruments and markets in promoting or hindering financial stability or crises.

A Primer on Sovereign Debt Buybacks and Swaps

A Primer on Sovereign Debt Buybacks and Swaps

Author: Carlos I. Medeiros

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2007-03

Total Pages: 56

ISBN-13:

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

This paper sets forth some basic principles that could help debt managers in emerging market and other countries to plan and implement sovereign debt buyback and swap operations. It discusses the macroeconomic context in which buybacks and swaps are undertaken, the objectives of buybacks and swaps, the analytical framework for deciding whether to undertake a particular buyback or swap operation and for selecting among alternative operations, and some key issues in the determination of the strategy for executing buybacks and swaps. The focus is on developing the analytical framework for evaluating sovereign debt buyback and swap operations, since very little work has been done in this area. In this regard, the paper presents a step-wise decision-making procedure, in which discounted cash flow analysis and the use of strategic benchmarks for the debt play central roles.


Book Synopsis A Primer on Sovereign Debt Buybacks and Swaps by : Carlos I. Medeiros

Download or read book A Primer on Sovereign Debt Buybacks and Swaps written by Carlos I. Medeiros and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2007-03 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper sets forth some basic principles that could help debt managers in emerging market and other countries to plan and implement sovereign debt buyback and swap operations. It discusses the macroeconomic context in which buybacks and swaps are undertaken, the objectives of buybacks and swaps, the analytical framework for deciding whether to undertake a particular buyback or swap operation and for selecting among alternative operations, and some key issues in the determination of the strategy for executing buybacks and swaps. The focus is on developing the analytical framework for evaluating sovereign debt buyback and swap operations, since very little work has been done in this area. In this regard, the paper presents a step-wise decision-making procedure, in which discounted cash flow analysis and the use of strategic benchmarks for the debt play central roles.

Sovereign Risk and Asset and Liability Management

Sovereign Risk and Asset and Liability Management

Author: Mr.Udaibir S Das

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2012-10-04

Total Pages: 44

ISBN-13: 1475511833

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

Country practices towards managing financial risks on a sovereign balance sheet continue to evolve. Each crisis period, and its legacy on sovereign balance sheets, reaffirms the need for strengthening financial risk management. This paper discusses some salient features embedded in in the current generation of sovereign asset and liability management (SALM) approaches, including objectives, definitions of relevant assets and liabilities, and methodologies used in obtaining optimal SALM outcomes. These elements are used in developing an analytical SALM framework which could become an operational instrument in formulating asset management and debtor liability management strategies at the sovereign level. From a portfolio perspective, the SALM approach could help detect direct and derived sovereign risk exposures. It allows analyzing the financial characteristics of the balance sheet, identifying sources of costs and risks, and quantifying the correlations among these sources of risk. The paper also outlines institutional requirements in implementing an SALM framework and seeks to lay the ground for further policy and analytical work on this topic.


Book Synopsis Sovereign Risk and Asset and Liability Management by : Mr.Udaibir S Das

Download or read book Sovereign Risk and Asset and Liability Management written by Mr.Udaibir S Das and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-10-04 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Country practices towards managing financial risks on a sovereign balance sheet continue to evolve. Each crisis period, and its legacy on sovereign balance sheets, reaffirms the need for strengthening financial risk management. This paper discusses some salient features embedded in in the current generation of sovereign asset and liability management (SALM) approaches, including objectives, definitions of relevant assets and liabilities, and methodologies used in obtaining optimal SALM outcomes. These elements are used in developing an analytical SALM framework which could become an operational instrument in formulating asset management and debtor liability management strategies at the sovereign level. From a portfolio perspective, the SALM approach could help detect direct and derived sovereign risk exposures. It allows analyzing the financial characteristics of the balance sheet, identifying sources of costs and risks, and quantifying the correlations among these sources of risk. The paper also outlines institutional requirements in implementing an SALM framework and seeks to lay the ground for further policy and analytical work on this topic.

Advances in Risk Management of Government Debt

Advances in Risk Management of Government Debt

Author: OECD

Publisher: OECD Publishing

Published: 2005-08-05

Total Pages: 276

ISBN-13: 9264104437

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

This study on government debt brings together a number of reports on best practices for managing market risk, credit risk, operational risk and contingent liability risk. It was prepared by the OECD Working Party on Public Debt Management.


Book Synopsis Advances in Risk Management of Government Debt by : OECD

Download or read book Advances in Risk Management of Government Debt written by OECD and published by OECD Publishing. This book was released on 2005-08-05 with total page 276 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study on government debt brings together a number of reports on best practices for managing market risk, credit risk, operational risk and contingent liability risk. It was prepared by the OECD Working Party on Public Debt Management.

Sovereign Debt Restructurings 1950-2010

Sovereign Debt Restructurings 1950-2010

Author: Mr.Udaibir S. Das

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2012-08-01

Total Pages: 128

ISBN-13: 1475505531

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

This paper provides a comprehensive survey of pertinent issues on sovereign debt restructurings, based on a newly constructed database. This is the first complete dataset of sovereign restructuring cases, covering the six decades from 1950–2010; it includes 186 debt exchanges with foreign banks and bondholders, and 447 bilateral debt agreements with the Paris Club. We present new stylized facts on the outcome and process of debt restructurings, including on the size of haircuts, creditor participation, and legal aspects. In addition, the paper summarizes the relevant empirical literature, analyzes recent restructuring episodes, and discusses ongoing debates on crisis resolution mechanisms, credit default swaps, and the role of collective action clauses.


Book Synopsis Sovereign Debt Restructurings 1950-2010 by : Mr.Udaibir S. Das

Download or read book Sovereign Debt Restructurings 1950-2010 written by Mr.Udaibir S. Das and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-08-01 with total page 128 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides a comprehensive survey of pertinent issues on sovereign debt restructurings, based on a newly constructed database. This is the first complete dataset of sovereign restructuring cases, covering the six decades from 1950–2010; it includes 186 debt exchanges with foreign banks and bondholders, and 447 bilateral debt agreements with the Paris Club. We present new stylized facts on the outcome and process of debt restructurings, including on the size of haircuts, creditor participation, and legal aspects. In addition, the paper summarizes the relevant empirical literature, analyzes recent restructuring episodes, and discusses ongoing debates on crisis resolution mechanisms, credit default swaps, and the role of collective action clauses.

Debt Dilution and Sovereign Default Risk

Debt Dilution and Sovereign Default Risk

Author: Mr.Leonardo Martinez

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2011-03-01

Total Pages: 28

ISBN-13: 1455227099

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

We propose a modification to a baseline sovereign default framework that allows us to quantify the importance of debt dilution in accounting for the level and volatility of the interest rate spread paid by sovereigns. We measure the effects of debt dilution by comparing the simulations of the baseline model (with debt dilution) with the ones of the modified model without dilution. We calibrate the baseline model to mimic the mean and standard deviation of the spread, as well as the external debt level, the mean debt duration and a measure of default frequency in the data. We find that, even without commitment to future repayment policies and withoutcontingency of sovereign debt, if the sovereign could eliminate debt dilution, the number of default per 100 years decreases from 3.10 to 0.42. The mean spread decreases from 7.38% to 0.57%. The standard deviation of the spread decreases from 2.45 to 0.72. Default risk falls in part because of a reduction of the level of sovereign debt (36% of the face value and of 11% of the market value). But we show that the most important effect of dilution on default risk results from a shift in the set of government's borrowing opportunities. Our analysis is also relevant for the study of other credit markets where the debt dilution problem could be present.


Book Synopsis Debt Dilution and Sovereign Default Risk by : Mr.Leonardo Martinez

Download or read book Debt Dilution and Sovereign Default Risk written by Mr.Leonardo Martinez and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-03-01 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We propose a modification to a baseline sovereign default framework that allows us to quantify the importance of debt dilution in accounting for the level and volatility of the interest rate spread paid by sovereigns. We measure the effects of debt dilution by comparing the simulations of the baseline model (with debt dilution) with the ones of the modified model without dilution. We calibrate the baseline model to mimic the mean and standard deviation of the spread, as well as the external debt level, the mean debt duration and a measure of default frequency in the data. We find that, even without commitment to future repayment policies and withoutcontingency of sovereign debt, if the sovereign could eliminate debt dilution, the number of default per 100 years decreases from 3.10 to 0.42. The mean spread decreases from 7.38% to 0.57%. The standard deviation of the spread decreases from 2.45 to 0.72. Default risk falls in part because of a reduction of the level of sovereign debt (36% of the face value and of 11% of the market value). But we show that the most important effect of dilution on default risk results from a shift in the set of government's borrowing opportunities. Our analysis is also relevant for the study of other credit markets where the debt dilution problem could be present.

IMF Research Bulletin

IMF Research Bulletin

Author:

Publisher:

Published: 2000

Total Pages: 444

ISBN-13:

DOWNLOAD EBOOK


Book Synopsis IMF Research Bulletin by :

Download or read book IMF Research Bulletin written by and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 444 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Risk Management of Sovereign Assets and Liabilities

Risk Management of Sovereign Assets and Liabilities

Author: Mr.D. F. I. Folkerts-Landau

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 1997-12-01

Total Pages: 54

ISBN-13: 1451979614

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

In an environment of sizable and volatile capital flows and integrated international capital markets, large and unhedged net external sovereign liabilities expose countries to swings in international asset prices and to potential speculative currency attacks. The paper argues that an essential step in reducing emerging market vulnerability to such external shocks is to reform the institutional arrangements governing asset and liability management policies, so as to promote a transparent, publicly accountable, and professional incentive structure.


Book Synopsis Risk Management of Sovereign Assets and Liabilities by : Mr.D. F. I. Folkerts-Landau

Download or read book Risk Management of Sovereign Assets and Liabilities written by Mr.D. F. I. Folkerts-Landau and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1997-12-01 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In an environment of sizable and volatile capital flows and integrated international capital markets, large and unhedged net external sovereign liabilities expose countries to swings in international asset prices and to potential speculative currency attacks. The paper argues that an essential step in reducing emerging market vulnerability to such external shocks is to reform the institutional arrangements governing asset and liability management policies, so as to promote a transparent, publicly accountable, and professional incentive structure.