A Systems Approach to Estimating the Natural Rate of Unemployment and Potential Output for the United States

A Systems Approach to Estimating the Natural Rate of Unemployment and Potential Output for the United States

Author: International Monetary Fund

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 1989-10-26

Total Pages: 65

ISBN-13: 1451952171

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The methodology used in this paper has three distinguishing features: the natural rate of unemployment and potential output are jointly estimated; estimation integrates wage and price data with “real” and structural data; and third, the methodology encompasses many of the methods found in the literature. The results indicate that potential output growth has recovered somewhat during the early 1980s, but remains below the rapid rates of increase in the late 1960s. The natural rate, after rising during the late 1960s and the 1970s, is found to have declined in the 1980s. The paper concludes with an assessment of medium-term prospects for potential output and-the natural rate.


Book Synopsis A Systems Approach to Estimating the Natural Rate of Unemployment and Potential Output for the United States by : International Monetary Fund

Download or read book A Systems Approach to Estimating the Natural Rate of Unemployment and Potential Output for the United States written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1989-10-26 with total page 65 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The methodology used in this paper has three distinguishing features: the natural rate of unemployment and potential output are jointly estimated; estimation integrates wage and price data with “real” and structural data; and third, the methodology encompasses many of the methods found in the literature. The results indicate that potential output growth has recovered somewhat during the early 1980s, but remains below the rapid rates of increase in the late 1960s. The natural rate, after rising during the late 1960s and the 1970s, is found to have declined in the 1980s. The paper concludes with an assessment of medium-term prospects for potential output and-the natural rate.


A Systems Approach to Estimating the Natural Rate of Unemployment and Potential Output for the United States

A Systems Approach to Estimating the Natural Rate of Unemployment and Potential Output for the United States

Author: Charles L. Adams

Publisher:

Published: 2006

Total Pages: 65

ISBN-13:

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The methodology used in this paper has three distinguishing features: the natural rate of unemployment and potential output are jointly estimated; estimation integrates wage and price data with quot;realquot; and structural data; and third, the methodology encompasses many of the methods found in the literature. The results indicate that potential output growth has recovered somewhat during the early 1980s, but remains below the rapid rates of increase in the late 1960s. The natural rate, after rising during the late 1960s and the 1970s, is found to have declined in the 1980s. The paper concludes with an assessment of medium-term prospects for potential output and the natural rate.


Book Synopsis A Systems Approach to Estimating the Natural Rate of Unemployment and Potential Output for the United States by : Charles L. Adams

Download or read book A Systems Approach to Estimating the Natural Rate of Unemployment and Potential Output for the United States written by Charles L. Adams and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 65 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The methodology used in this paper has three distinguishing features: the natural rate of unemployment and potential output are jointly estimated; estimation integrates wage and price data with quot;realquot; and structural data; and third, the methodology encompasses many of the methods found in the literature. The results indicate that potential output growth has recovered somewhat during the early 1980s, but remains below the rapid rates of increase in the late 1960s. The natural rate, after rising during the late 1960s and the 1970s, is found to have declined in the 1980s. The paper concludes with an assessment of medium-term prospects for potential output and the natural rate.


A System Approach to Estimating the Natural Rate of Unemployment and Potential Output for the United States

A System Approach to Estimating the Natural Rate of Unemployment and Potential Output for the United States

Author: Charles F. Adams

Publisher:

Published: 1989

Total Pages: 52

ISBN-13:

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Book Synopsis A System Approach to Estimating the Natural Rate of Unemployment and Potential Output for the United States by : Charles F. Adams

Download or read book A System Approach to Estimating the Natural Rate of Unemployment and Potential Output for the United States written by Charles F. Adams and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:


A Systems Approach to Estimating the Natural Rate of Unemploment and Potential Output for the United States

A Systems Approach to Estimating the Natural Rate of Unemploment and Potential Output for the United States

Author: Charles Adams

Publisher:

Published: 1989

Total Pages:

ISBN-13:

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Book Synopsis A Systems Approach to Estimating the Natural Rate of Unemploment and Potential Output for the United States by : Charles Adams

Download or read book A Systems Approach to Estimating the Natural Rate of Unemploment and Potential Output for the United States written by Charles Adams and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:


Estimating Potential Output for the U.S. Economy in a Model Framework

Estimating Potential Output for the U.S. Economy in a Model Framework

Author: Albert J. Eckstein

Publisher:

Published: 1976

Total Pages: 44

ISBN-13:

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Book Synopsis Estimating Potential Output for the U.S. Economy in a Model Framework by : Albert J. Eckstein

Download or read book Estimating Potential Output for the U.S. Economy in a Model Framework written by Albert J. Eckstein and published by . This book was released on 1976 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:


Multivariate Filter Estimation of Potential Output for the United States: An Extension with Labor Market Hysteresis

Multivariate Filter Estimation of Potential Output for the United States: An Extension with Labor Market Hysteresis

Author: Ali Alichi

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2019-02-19

Total Pages: 35

ISBN-13: 1484398068

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This paper extends the multivariate filter approach of estimating potential output developed by Alichi and others (2018) to incorporate labor market hysteresis. This extension captures the idea that long and deep recessions (expansions) cause persistent damage (improvement) to the labor market, thereby reducing (increasing) potential output. Applying the model to U.S. data results in significantly smaller estimates of output gaps, and higher estimates of the NAIRU, after the global financial crisis, compared to estimates without hysteresis. The smaller output gaps partly explain the absence of persistent deflation despite the slow recovery during 2010-2017. Going forward, if strong growth performance continues well beyond 2018, hysteresis is expected to result in a structural improvement in growth and employment.


Book Synopsis Multivariate Filter Estimation of Potential Output for the United States: An Extension with Labor Market Hysteresis by : Ali Alichi

Download or read book Multivariate Filter Estimation of Potential Output for the United States: An Extension with Labor Market Hysteresis written by Ali Alichi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-02-19 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper extends the multivariate filter approach of estimating potential output developed by Alichi and others (2018) to incorporate labor market hysteresis. This extension captures the idea that long and deep recessions (expansions) cause persistent damage (improvement) to the labor market, thereby reducing (increasing) potential output. Applying the model to U.S. data results in significantly smaller estimates of output gaps, and higher estimates of the NAIRU, after the global financial crisis, compared to estimates without hysteresis. The smaller output gaps partly explain the absence of persistent deflation despite the slow recovery during 2010-2017. Going forward, if strong growth performance continues well beyond 2018, hysteresis is expected to result in a structural improvement in growth and employment.


Money in a Free Society

Money in a Free Society

Author: Tim Congdon

Publisher: Encounter Books

Published: 2011-11-01

Total Pages: 522

ISBN-13: 159403544X

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In the 15 years to mid-2007 the world economy enjoyed unparalleled stability (the so-called “Great Moderation”), with steady growth and low inflation. But the period since mid-2007 (“the Great Recession”) has seen the worst macroeconomic turmoil since the 1930s. A dramatic plunge in trade, output and employment in late 2008 and 2009 has been followed by an unconvincing recovery. How is the lurch from stability to instability to be explained? What are the intellectual origins of the policy mistakes that led to the Great Recession? What theories motivated policies in the USA and other leading nations? Which ideas about economic policy have proved right? And which have been wrong? Money in a Free Society contains 18 provocative essays on these questions from Tim Congdon, an influential economic adviser to the Thatcher government in the UK and one of the world’s leading monetary commentators. Congdon argues that academic economists and policy-makers have betrayed the intellectual legacy of both Keynes and Friedman. These two great economists believed – if in somewhat different ways – in the need for steady growth in the quantity of money. But Keynes has been misunderstood as advocating big rises in public spending and large budget deficits as the only way to defeat recession. That has led under President Obama to an unsustainable explosion in American public debt. Meanwhile the Fed has ignored extreme volatility in the rate of money growth, contrary to the central message of Friedman’s analytical work. In his 1923 Tract on Monetary Reform Keynes said, “The Individualistic Capitalism of today, precisely because it entrusts saving to the individual investor and production to the individual employer, presumes a stable measuring-rod of value, and cannot be efficient--perhaps cannot survive--without one.” In Money in a Free Society Congdon calls for a return to stable money growth and sound public finances, and argues that these remain the best answers to the problems facing modern capitalism.


Book Synopsis Money in a Free Society by : Tim Congdon

Download or read book Money in a Free Society written by Tim Congdon and published by Encounter Books. This book was released on 2011-11-01 with total page 522 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the 15 years to mid-2007 the world economy enjoyed unparalleled stability (the so-called “Great Moderation”), with steady growth and low inflation. But the period since mid-2007 (“the Great Recession”) has seen the worst macroeconomic turmoil since the 1930s. A dramatic plunge in trade, output and employment in late 2008 and 2009 has been followed by an unconvincing recovery. How is the lurch from stability to instability to be explained? What are the intellectual origins of the policy mistakes that led to the Great Recession? What theories motivated policies in the USA and other leading nations? Which ideas about economic policy have proved right? And which have been wrong? Money in a Free Society contains 18 provocative essays on these questions from Tim Congdon, an influential economic adviser to the Thatcher government in the UK and one of the world’s leading monetary commentators. Congdon argues that academic economists and policy-makers have betrayed the intellectual legacy of both Keynes and Friedman. These two great economists believed – if in somewhat different ways – in the need for steady growth in the quantity of money. But Keynes has been misunderstood as advocating big rises in public spending and large budget deficits as the only way to defeat recession. That has led under President Obama to an unsustainable explosion in American public debt. Meanwhile the Fed has ignored extreme volatility in the rate of money growth, contrary to the central message of Friedman’s analytical work. In his 1923 Tract on Monetary Reform Keynes said, “The Individualistic Capitalism of today, precisely because it entrusts saving to the individual investor and production to the individual employer, presumes a stable measuring-rod of value, and cannot be efficient--perhaps cannot survive--without one.” In Money in a Free Society Congdon calls for a return to stable money growth and sound public finances, and argues that these remain the best answers to the problems facing modern capitalism.


World Economic Outlook, October 1999

World Economic Outlook, October 1999

Author: International Monetary Fund

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 1999-10-01

Total Pages: 268

ISBN-13: 9781557758392

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Supporting Studies for the World Economic Outlook, prepared by IMF staff, provide a more detailed analysis of issues recently covered in the main pubication. The current edition includes studies of globalization and growth, the future of the international financial system, currency crises, business cycles and exchange rates, supply-side issues in the contractions experienced in the Baltics, Russia, and other countries of the former Soviet Union, and challenges to European labor markets posed by European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU).


Book Synopsis World Economic Outlook, October 1999 by : International Monetary Fund

Download or read book World Economic Outlook, October 1999 written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1999-10-01 with total page 268 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Supporting Studies for the World Economic Outlook, prepared by IMF staff, provide a more detailed analysis of issues recently covered in the main pubication. The current edition includes studies of globalization and growth, the future of the international financial system, currency crises, business cycles and exchange rates, supply-side issues in the contractions experienced in the Baltics, Russia, and other countries of the former Soviet Union, and challenges to European labor markets posed by European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU).


Estimating the Output Gap in Real Time

Estimating the Output Gap in Real Time

Author: Anton Cheremukhin

Publisher:

Published: 2013

Total Pages: 26

ISBN-13:

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I propose a novel method of estimating the potential level of U.S. GDP in real time. The proposed wage-based measure of economic potential remains virtually unchanged when new data are released. The distance between current and potential output--the output gap--satisfies Okun's law and outperforms many other measures of slack in forecasting inflation. Thus, I provide a robust statistical tool useful for understanding current economic conditions and guiding policymaking.


Book Synopsis Estimating the Output Gap in Real Time by : Anton Cheremukhin

Download or read book Estimating the Output Gap in Real Time written by Anton Cheremukhin and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: I propose a novel method of estimating the potential level of U.S. GDP in real time. The proposed wage-based measure of economic potential remains virtually unchanged when new data are released. The distance between current and potential output--the output gap--satisfies Okun's law and outperforms many other measures of slack in forecasting inflation. Thus, I provide a robust statistical tool useful for understanding current economic conditions and guiding policymaking.


East Asian Economic Issues, Vol 3

East Asian Economic Issues, Vol 3

Author: Donghyun Park

Publisher: World Scientific

Published: 1997-11-29

Total Pages: 452

ISBN-13: 9814496790

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This book is a compilation of papers written jointly by the staff and students of the Applied Economics Division of the Nanyang Business School. It is unique, in that all the works included are the result of an extensive, equal and mutually beneficial collaboration between the students and staff. At the same time, they embody the highest level of technical and analytical rigor, and will be immensely relevant and useful to readers interested in East Asian economic issues. In particular, this volume will prove valuable for anyone interested in both the microeconomic and macroeconomic developments affecting Singapore and ASEAN.


Book Synopsis East Asian Economic Issues, Vol 3 by : Donghyun Park

Download or read book East Asian Economic Issues, Vol 3 written by Donghyun Park and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 1997-11-29 with total page 452 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is a compilation of papers written jointly by the staff and students of the Applied Economics Division of the Nanyang Business School. It is unique, in that all the works included are the result of an extensive, equal and mutually beneficial collaboration between the students and staff. At the same time, they embody the highest level of technical and analytical rigor, and will be immensely relevant and useful to readers interested in East Asian economic issues. In particular, this volume will prove valuable for anyone interested in both the microeconomic and macroeconomic developments affecting Singapore and ASEAN.