Download Adversarial Risk Analysis full books in PDF, epub, and Kindle. Read online Adversarial Risk Analysis ebook anywhere anytime directly on your device. Fast Download speed and no annoying ads. We cannot guarantee that every ebooks is available!
Winner of the 2017 De Groot Prize awarded by the International Society for Bayesian Analysis (ISBA)A relatively new area of research, adversarial risk analysis (ARA) informs decision making when there are intelligent opponents and uncertain outcomes. Adversarial Risk Analysis develops methods for allocating defensive or offensive resources against
Book Synopsis Adversarial Risk Analysis by : David L. Banks
Download or read book Adversarial Risk Analysis written by David L. Banks and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2015-06-30 with total page 220 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Winner of the 2017 De Groot Prize awarded by the International Society for Bayesian Analysis (ISBA)A relatively new area of research, adversarial risk analysis (ARA) informs decision making when there are intelligent opponents and uncertain outcomes. Adversarial Risk Analysis develops methods for allocating defensive or offensive resources against
Game theory and other group decision-making paradigms, see Gibbons [1992], have been regarded for a long time inadequate in most risk analysis applications. However, thanks to the urge to take into account the strategies of adversaries in contexts such as counter terrorism, economic competition or cybersecurity, a growing interest on these once dismissed methodologies has arisen. Adversarial Risk Analysis (ARA) [Ros Insua et al., 2009] is an emergent frameworkfor supporting a decision-maker (she) who faces opponents (he/they) in conflict situationsfor which the consequences are random and determined by all interacting agents' actions. ARA provides one-sided prescriptive help to the decision-maker, maximising her expected utility while treating her adversaries' decisions as random variables...
Book Synopsis Contribuciones Al Análisis de Riesgos Adversarios by : Jorge González Ortega
Download or read book Contribuciones Al Análisis de Riesgos Adversarios written by Jorge González Ortega and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 142 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Game theory and other group decision-making paradigms, see Gibbons [1992], have been regarded for a long time inadequate in most risk analysis applications. However, thanks to the urge to take into account the strategies of adversaries in contexts such as counter terrorism, economic competition or cybersecurity, a growing interest on these once dismissed methodologies has arisen. Adversarial Risk Analysis (ARA) [Ros Insua et al., 2009] is an emergent frameworkfor supporting a decision-maker (she) who faces opponents (he/they) in conflict situationsfor which the consequences are random and determined by all interacting agents' actions. ARA provides one-sided prescriptive help to the decision-maker, maximising her expected utility while treating her adversaries' decisions as random variables...
This book deals with the state-of-the-art of physical security knowledge and research in the chemical and process industries. Legislation differences between Europe and the USA are investigated, followed by an overview of the how, what and why of contemporary security risk assessment in this particular industrial sector. Innovative solutions such as attractiveness calculations and the use of game theory, advancing the present science of adversarial risk analysis, are discussed. The book further stands up for developing and employing dynamic security risk assessments, for instance based on Bayesian networks, and using OR methods to truly move security forward in the chemical and process industries.
Book Synopsis Security Risk Assessment by : Genserik Reniers
Download or read book Security Risk Assessment written by Genserik Reniers and published by Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co KG. This book was released on 2017-11-20 with total page 201 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book deals with the state-of-the-art of physical security knowledge and research in the chemical and process industries. Legislation differences between Europe and the USA are investigated, followed by an overview of the how, what and why of contemporary security risk assessment in this particular industrial sector. Innovative solutions such as attractiveness calculations and the use of game theory, advancing the present science of adversarial risk analysis, are discussed. The book further stands up for developing and employing dynamic security risk assessments, for instance based on Bayesian networks, and using OR methods to truly move security forward in the chemical and process industries.
The mission of Department of Homeland Security Bioterrorism Risk Assessment: A Call for Change, the book published in December 2008, is to independently and scientifically review the methodology that led to the 2006 Department of Homeland Security report, Bioterrorism Risk Assessment (BTRA) and provide a foundation for future updates. This book identifies a number of fundamental concerns with the BTRA of 2006, ranging from mathematical and statistical mistakes that have corrupted results, to unnecessarily complicated probability models and models with fidelity far exceeding existing data, to more basic questions about how terrorist behavior should be modeled. Rather than merely criticizing what was done in the BTRA of 2006, this new NRC book consults outside experts and collects a number of proposed alternatives that could improve DHS's ability to assess potential terrorist behavior as a key element of risk-informed decision making, and it explains these alternatives in the specific context of the BTRA and the bioterrorism threat.
Book Synopsis Department of Homeland Security Bioterrorism Risk Assessment by : National Research Council
Download or read book Department of Homeland Security Bioterrorism Risk Assessment written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2009-01-03 with total page 172 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The mission of Department of Homeland Security Bioterrorism Risk Assessment: A Call for Change, the book published in December 2008, is to independently and scientifically review the methodology that led to the 2006 Department of Homeland Security report, Bioterrorism Risk Assessment (BTRA) and provide a foundation for future updates. This book identifies a number of fundamental concerns with the BTRA of 2006, ranging from mathematical and statistical mistakes that have corrupted results, to unnecessarily complicated probability models and models with fidelity far exceeding existing data, to more basic questions about how terrorist behavior should be modeled. Rather than merely criticizing what was done in the BTRA of 2006, this new NRC book consults outside experts and collects a number of proposed alternatives that could improve DHS's ability to assess potential terrorist behavior as a key element of risk-informed decision making, and it explains these alternatives in the specific context of the BTRA and the bioterrorism threat.
This book pulls together many perspectives on the theory, methods and practice of drawing judgments from panels of experts in assessing risks and making decisions in complex circumstances. The book is divided into four parts: Structured Expert Judgment (SEJ) current research fronts; the contributions of Roger Cooke and the Classical Model he developed; process, procedures and education; and applications. After an Introduction by the Editors, the first part presents chapters on expert elicitation of parameters of multinomial models; the advantages of using performance weighting by advancing the “random expert” hypothesis; expert elicitation for specific graphical models; modelling dependencies between experts’ assessments within a Bayesian framework; preventive maintenance optimization in a Bayesian framework; eliciting life time distributions to parametrize a Dirichlet process; and on an adversarial risk analysis approach for structured expert judgment studies. The second part includes Roger Cooke’s oration from 1995 on taking up his chair at Delft University of Technology; one of the editors reflections on the early decade of the Classical Model development and use; a current overview of the theory of the Classical Model, providing a deep and comprehensive perspective on its foundations and its application; and an interview with Roger Cooke. The third part starts with an interview with Professor Dame Anne Glover, who served as the Chief Scientific Advisor to the President of the European Commission. It then presents chapters on the characteristics of good elicitations by reviewing those advocated and applied; the design and development of a training course for SEJ; and on specific experiences with SEJ protocols with the intention of presenting the challenges and insights collected during these journeys. Finally, the fourth (and largest) part begins with some reflections from Willy Aspinall on his many experiences in applying the Classical Model in several application domains; it continues with related reflections on imperfect elicitations; and then it presents chapters with applications on medicines policy and management, supply chain cyber risk management, geo-political risks, terrorism and the risks facing businesses looking to internationalise.
Book Synopsis Expert Judgement in Risk and Decision Analysis by : Anca M. Hanea
Download or read book Expert Judgement in Risk and Decision Analysis written by Anca M. Hanea and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-02-19 with total page 503 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book pulls together many perspectives on the theory, methods and practice of drawing judgments from panels of experts in assessing risks and making decisions in complex circumstances. The book is divided into four parts: Structured Expert Judgment (SEJ) current research fronts; the contributions of Roger Cooke and the Classical Model he developed; process, procedures and education; and applications. After an Introduction by the Editors, the first part presents chapters on expert elicitation of parameters of multinomial models; the advantages of using performance weighting by advancing the “random expert” hypothesis; expert elicitation for specific graphical models; modelling dependencies between experts’ assessments within a Bayesian framework; preventive maintenance optimization in a Bayesian framework; eliciting life time distributions to parametrize a Dirichlet process; and on an adversarial risk analysis approach for structured expert judgment studies. The second part includes Roger Cooke’s oration from 1995 on taking up his chair at Delft University of Technology; one of the editors reflections on the early decade of the Classical Model development and use; a current overview of the theory of the Classical Model, providing a deep and comprehensive perspective on its foundations and its application; and an interview with Roger Cooke. The third part starts with an interview with Professor Dame Anne Glover, who served as the Chief Scientific Advisor to the President of the European Commission. It then presents chapters on the characteristics of good elicitations by reviewing those advocated and applied; the design and development of a training course for SEJ; and on specific experiences with SEJ protocols with the intention of presenting the challenges and insights collected during these journeys. Finally, the fourth (and largest) part begins with some reflections from Willy Aspinall on his many experiences in applying the Classical Model in several application domains; it continues with related reflections on imperfect elicitations; and then it presents chapters with applications on medicines policy and management, supply chain cyber risk management, geo-political risks, terrorism and the risks facing businesses looking to internationalise.
This book is about making machine learning models and their decisions interpretable. After exploring the concepts of interpretability, you will learn about simple, interpretable models such as decision trees, decision rules and linear regression. Later chapters focus on general model-agnostic methods for interpreting black box models like feature importance and accumulated local effects and explaining individual predictions with Shapley values and LIME. All interpretation methods are explained in depth and discussed critically. How do they work under the hood? What are their strengths and weaknesses? How can their outputs be interpreted? This book will enable you to select and correctly apply the interpretation method that is most suitable for your machine learning project.
Book Synopsis Interpretable Machine Learning by : Christoph Molnar
Download or read book Interpretable Machine Learning written by Christoph Molnar and published by Lulu.com. This book was released on 2020 with total page 320 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is about making machine learning models and their decisions interpretable. After exploring the concepts of interpretability, you will learn about simple, interpretable models such as decision trees, decision rules and linear regression. Later chapters focus on general model-agnostic methods for interpreting black box models like feature importance and accumulated local effects and explaining individual predictions with Shapley values and LIME. All interpretation methods are explained in depth and discussed critically. How do they work under the hood? What are their strengths and weaknesses? How can their outputs be interpreted? This book will enable you to select and correctly apply the interpretation method that is most suitable for your machine learning project.
Book Synopsis Risk Analysis and Its Applications by : David Bendel Hertz
Download or read book Risk Analysis and Its Applications written by David Bendel Hertz and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
This study allows readers to get to grips with the conceptual tools and practical techniques for building robust machine learning in the face of adversaries.
Book Synopsis Adversarial Machine Learning by : Anthony D. Joseph
Download or read book Adversarial Machine Learning written by Anthony D. Joseph and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2019-02-21 with total page 341 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study allows readers to get to grips with the conceptual tools and practical techniques for building robust machine learning in the face of adversaries.
In recent years, interest and progress in the area of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) have boomed, with new applications vigorously pursued across many sectors. At the same time, the computing and communications technologies on which we have come to rely present serious security concerns: cyberattacks have escalated in number, frequency, and impact, drawing increased attention to the vulnerabilities of cyber systems and the need to increase their security. In the face of this changing landscape, there is significant concern and interest among policymakers, security practitioners, technologists, researchers, and the public about the potential implications of AI and ML for cybersecurity. The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine convened a workshop on March 12-13, 2019 to discuss and explore these concerns. This publication summarizes the presentations and discussions from the workshop.
Book Synopsis Implications of Artificial Intelligence for Cybersecurity by : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
Download or read book Implications of Artificial Intelligence for Cybersecurity written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2020-01-27 with total page 99 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In recent years, interest and progress in the area of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) have boomed, with new applications vigorously pursued across many sectors. At the same time, the computing and communications technologies on which we have come to rely present serious security concerns: cyberattacks have escalated in number, frequency, and impact, drawing increased attention to the vulnerabilities of cyber systems and the need to increase their security. In the face of this changing landscape, there is significant concern and interest among policymakers, security practitioners, technologists, researchers, and the public about the potential implications of AI and ML for cybersecurity. The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine convened a workshop on March 12-13, 2019 to discuss and explore these concerns. This publication summarizes the presentations and discussions from the workshop.
Risk assessment has become a dominant public policy tool for making choices, based on limited resources, to protect public health and the environment. It has been instrumental to the mission of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) as well as other federal agencies in evaluating public health concerns, informing regulatory and technological decisions, prioritizing research needs and funding, and in developing approaches for cost-benefit analysis. However, risk assessment is at a crossroads. Despite advances in the field, risk assessment faces a number of significant challenges including lengthy delays in making complex decisions; lack of data leading to significant uncertainty in risk assessments; and many chemicals in the marketplace that have not been evaluated and emerging agents requiring assessment. Science and Decisions makes practical scientific and technical recommendations to address these challenges. This book is a complement to the widely used 1983 National Academies book, Risk Assessment in the Federal Government (also known as the Red Book). The earlier book established a framework for the concepts and conduct of risk assessment that has been adopted by numerous expert committees, regulatory agencies, and public health institutions. The new book embeds these concepts within a broader framework for risk-based decision-making. Together, these are essential references for those working in the regulatory and public health fields.
Book Synopsis Science and Decisions by : National Research Council
Download or read book Science and Decisions written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2009-03-24 with total page 422 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Risk assessment has become a dominant public policy tool for making choices, based on limited resources, to protect public health and the environment. It has been instrumental to the mission of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) as well as other federal agencies in evaluating public health concerns, informing regulatory and technological decisions, prioritizing research needs and funding, and in developing approaches for cost-benefit analysis. However, risk assessment is at a crossroads. Despite advances in the field, risk assessment faces a number of significant challenges including lengthy delays in making complex decisions; lack of data leading to significant uncertainty in risk assessments; and many chemicals in the marketplace that have not been evaluated and emerging agents requiring assessment. Science and Decisions makes practical scientific and technical recommendations to address these challenges. This book is a complement to the widely used 1983 National Academies book, Risk Assessment in the Federal Government (also known as the Red Book). The earlier book established a framework for the concepts and conduct of risk assessment that has been adopted by numerous expert committees, regulatory agencies, and public health institutions. The new book embeds these concepts within a broader framework for risk-based decision-making. Together, these are essential references for those working in the regulatory and public health fields.
