Author: United States Congressional Budget Office
Publisher: Createspace Independent Publishing Platform
Published: 2017-09-14
Total Pages: 24
ISBN-13: 9781976352256
DOWNLOAD EBOOKIn their analysis of the President's budget, CBO and JCT generally produce detailed "conventional" estimates of the President's proposals for individual provisions- as well as for the deficit and debt-that exclude any feedback from macroeconomic effects; the agencies also produce "dynamic" estimates that include economic feedback effects on the budget for the set of proposals as a whole. The economic projections used in the conventional analysis reflect CBO's recently published baseline projections, which incorporate the assumption that current laws governing federal outlays and revenues will remain generally unchanged.1 Excluding economic feedback effects, CBO and JCT estimate, federal budget deficits under the President's proposals would shrink relative to the size of the economy over the coming decade, ranging between 2.6 percent and 3.3 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) during that period. As a result, the cumulative federal deficit would be nearly one-third smaller than in CBO's baseline projections for the 2018-2027 period. (Those baseline projections show deficits rising to more than 5 percent of GDP by 2027.) By the end of the coming decade, debt held by the public would total 80 percent of GDP-11 percentage points below the debt-to-GDP 1. CBO regularly produces such baseline projections, which serve as a benchmark against which the President's proposals and other potential legislation can be measured. For the latest projections, see Congressional Budget Office, An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2017 to 2027 (June 2017), www.cbo.gov/ publication/52801. Those projections incorporate the effects of legislation enacted and administrative actions taken through June 19, 2017. ratio projected in CBO's baseline but 3 percentage points higher than the ratio anticipated for the end of this year. The reduction in deficits and debt under the President's budget would be achieved by decreasing both mandatory and discretionary spending significantly compared with projections under current law. In particular, federal spending for health care would be much lower than the amounts in CBO's baseline, as would outlays for warrelated programs and for many nondefense purposes. Revenues also would be lower than baseline amounts under the President's proposals, offsetting some of the deficit reduction achieved by the spending cuts. Such reductions in the deficit would have effects on the economy that would further decrease deficits by modest amounts. Including just the effects of economic feedback from deficit reduction would reduce the cumulative deficit over the next 10 years by roughly $160 billion-or about 0.1 percent of GDP, on average-compared with CBO and JCT's conventional estimate of the President's proposals. In 2027, debt held by the public would be lower by 0.6 percent of GDP.
Book Synopsis An Analysis of the President's 2018 Budget by : United States Congressional Budget Office
Download or read book An Analysis of the President's 2018 Budget written by United States Congressional Budget Office and published by Createspace Independent Publishing Platform. This book was released on 2017-09-14 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In their analysis of the President's budget, CBO and JCT generally produce detailed "conventional" estimates of the President's proposals for individual provisions- as well as for the deficit and debt-that exclude any feedback from macroeconomic effects; the agencies also produce "dynamic" estimates that include economic feedback effects on the budget for the set of proposals as a whole. The economic projections used in the conventional analysis reflect CBO's recently published baseline projections, which incorporate the assumption that current laws governing federal outlays and revenues will remain generally unchanged.1 Excluding economic feedback effects, CBO and JCT estimate, federal budget deficits under the President's proposals would shrink relative to the size of the economy over the coming decade, ranging between 2.6 percent and 3.3 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) during that period. As a result, the cumulative federal deficit would be nearly one-third smaller than in CBO's baseline projections for the 2018-2027 period. (Those baseline projections show deficits rising to more than 5 percent of GDP by 2027.) By the end of the coming decade, debt held by the public would total 80 percent of GDP-11 percentage points below the debt-to-GDP 1. CBO regularly produces such baseline projections, which serve as a benchmark against which the President's proposals and other potential legislation can be measured. For the latest projections, see Congressional Budget Office, An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2017 to 2027 (June 2017), www.cbo.gov/ publication/52801. Those projections incorporate the effects of legislation enacted and administrative actions taken through June 19, 2017. ratio projected in CBO's baseline but 3 percentage points higher than the ratio anticipated for the end of this year. The reduction in deficits and debt under the President's budget would be achieved by decreasing both mandatory and discretionary spending significantly compared with projections under current law. In particular, federal spending for health care would be much lower than the amounts in CBO's baseline, as would outlays for warrelated programs and for many nondefense purposes. Revenues also would be lower than baseline amounts under the President's proposals, offsetting some of the deficit reduction achieved by the spending cuts. Such reductions in the deficit would have effects on the economy that would further decrease deficits by modest amounts. Including just the effects of economic feedback from deficit reduction would reduce the cumulative deficit over the next 10 years by roughly $160 billion-or about 0.1 percent of GDP, on average-compared with CBO and JCT's conventional estimate of the President's proposals. In 2027, debt held by the public would be lower by 0.6 percent of GDP.
