Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability

Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability

Author: National Research Council

Publisher: National Academies Press

Published: 2010-10-08

Total Pages: 192

ISBN-13: 030915183X

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More accurate forecasts of climate conditions over time periods of weeks to a few years could help people plan agricultural activities, mitigate drought, and manage energy resources, amongst other activities; however, current forecast systems have limited ability on these time- scales. Models for such climate forecasts must take into account complex interactions among the ocean, atmosphere, and land surface. Such processes can be difficult to represent realistically. To improve the quality of forecasts, this book makes recommendations about the development of the tools used in forecasting and about specific research goals for improving understanding of sources of predictability. To improve the accessibility of these forecasts to decision-makers and researchers, this book also suggests best practices to improve how forecasts are made and disseminated.


Book Synopsis Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability by : National Research Council

Download or read book Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2010-10-08 with total page 192 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: More accurate forecasts of climate conditions over time periods of weeks to a few years could help people plan agricultural activities, mitigate drought, and manage energy resources, amongst other activities; however, current forecast systems have limited ability on these time- scales. Models for such climate forecasts must take into account complex interactions among the ocean, atmosphere, and land surface. Such processes can be difficult to represent realistically. To improve the quality of forecasts, this book makes recommendations about the development of the tools used in forecasting and about specific research goals for improving understanding of sources of predictability. To improve the accessibility of these forecasts to decision-makers and researchers, this book also suggests best practices to improve how forecasts are made and disseminated.

Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability

Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability

Author: Committee on Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability

Publisher:

Published: 2010-09-08

Total Pages: 192

ISBN-13: 9780309383967

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More accurate forecasts of climate conditions over time periods of weeks to a few years could help people plan agricultural activities, mitigate drought, and manage energy resources, amongst other activities; however, current forecast systems have limited ability on these time- scales. Models for such climate forecasts must take into account complex interactions among the ocean, atmosphere, and land surface. Such processes can be difficult to represent realistically. To improve the quality of forecasts, this book makes recommendations about the development of the tools used in forecasting and about specific research goals for improving understanding of sources of predictability. To improve the accessibility of these forecasts to decision-makers and researchers, this book also suggests best practices to improve how forecasts are made and disseminated.


Book Synopsis Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability by : Committee on Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability

Download or read book Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability written by Committee on Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability and published by . This book was released on 2010-09-08 with total page 192 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: More accurate forecasts of climate conditions over time periods of weeks to a few years could help people plan agricultural activities, mitigate drought, and manage energy resources, amongst other activities; however, current forecast systems have limited ability on these time- scales. Models for such climate forecasts must take into account complex interactions among the ocean, atmosphere, and land surface. Such processes can be difficult to represent realistically. To improve the quality of forecasts, this book makes recommendations about the development of the tools used in forecasting and about specific research goals for improving understanding of sources of predictability. To improve the accessibility of these forecasts to decision-makers and researchers, this book also suggests best practices to improve how forecasts are made and disseminated.

Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability

Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability

Author: National Research Council (U.

Publisher:

Published: 2010

Total Pages:

ISBN-13:

DOWNLOAD EBOOK


Book Synopsis Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability by : National Research Council (U.

Download or read book Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability written by National Research Council (U. and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Next Generation Earth System Prediction

Next Generation Earth System Prediction

Author: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine

Publisher: National Academies Press

Published: 2016-08-22

Total Pages: 351

ISBN-13: 0309388805

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As the nation's economic activities, security concerns, and stewardship of natural resources become increasingly complex and globally interrelated, they become ever more sensitive to adverse impacts from weather, climate, and other natural phenomena. For several decades, forecasts with lead times of a few days for weather and other environmental phenomena have yielded valuable information to improve decision-making across all sectors of society. Developing the capability to forecast environmental conditions and disruptive events several weeks and months in advance could dramatically increase the value and benefit of environmental predictions, saving lives, protecting property, increasing economic vitality, protecting the environment, and informing policy choices. Over the past decade, the ability to forecast weather and climate conditions on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales, i.e., two to fifty-two weeks in advance, has improved substantially. Although significant progress has been made, much work remains to make S2S predictions skillful enough, as well as optimally tailored and communicated, to enable widespread use. Next Generation Earth System Predictions presents a ten-year U.S. research agenda that increases the nation's S2S research and modeling capability, advances S2S forecasting, and aids in decision making at medium and extended lead times.


Book Synopsis Next Generation Earth System Prediction by : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine

Download or read book Next Generation Earth System Prediction written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2016-08-22 with total page 351 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As the nation's economic activities, security concerns, and stewardship of natural resources become increasingly complex and globally interrelated, they become ever more sensitive to adverse impacts from weather, climate, and other natural phenomena. For several decades, forecasts with lead times of a few days for weather and other environmental phenomena have yielded valuable information to improve decision-making across all sectors of society. Developing the capability to forecast environmental conditions and disruptive events several weeks and months in advance could dramatically increase the value and benefit of environmental predictions, saving lives, protecting property, increasing economic vitality, protecting the environment, and informing policy choices. Over the past decade, the ability to forecast weather and climate conditions on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales, i.e., two to fifty-two weeks in advance, has improved substantially. Although significant progress has been made, much work remains to make S2S predictions skillful enough, as well as optimally tailored and communicated, to enable widespread use. Next Generation Earth System Predictions presents a ten-year U.S. research agenda that increases the nation's S2S research and modeling capability, advances S2S forecasting, and aids in decision making at medium and extended lead times.

Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction

Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction

Author: Andrew Robertson

Publisher: Elsevier

Published: 2018-10-19

Total Pages: 585

ISBN-13: 012811715X

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The Gap Between Weather and Climate Forecasting: Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction is an ideal reference for researchers and practitioners across the range of disciplines involved in the science, modeling, forecasting and application of this new frontier in sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction. It provides an accessible, yet rigorous, introduction to the scientific principles and sources of predictability through the unique challenges of numerical simulation and forecasting with state-of-science modeling codes and supercomputers. Additional coverage includes the prospects for developing applications to trigger early action decisions to lessen weather catastrophes, minimize costly damage, and optimize operator decisions. The book consists of a set of contributed chapters solicited from experts and leaders in the fields of S2S predictability science, numerical modeling, operational forecasting, and developing application sectors. The introduction and conclusion, written by the co-editors, provides historical perspective, unique synthesis and prospects, and emerging opportunities in this exciting, complex and interdisciplinary field. Contains contributed chapters from leaders and experts in sub-seasonal to seasonal science, forecasting and applications Provides a one-stop shop for graduate students, academic and applied researchers, and practitioners in an emerging and interdisciplinary field Offers a synthesis of the state of S2S science through the use of concrete examples, enabling potential users of S2S forecasts to quickly grasp the potential for application in their own decision-making Includes a broad set of topics, illustrated with graphic examples, that highlight interdisciplinary linkages


Book Synopsis Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction by : Andrew Robertson

Download or read book Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction written by Andrew Robertson and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2018-10-19 with total page 585 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Gap Between Weather and Climate Forecasting: Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction is an ideal reference for researchers and practitioners across the range of disciplines involved in the science, modeling, forecasting and application of this new frontier in sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction. It provides an accessible, yet rigorous, introduction to the scientific principles and sources of predictability through the unique challenges of numerical simulation and forecasting with state-of-science modeling codes and supercomputers. Additional coverage includes the prospects for developing applications to trigger early action decisions to lessen weather catastrophes, minimize costly damage, and optimize operator decisions. The book consists of a set of contributed chapters solicited from experts and leaders in the fields of S2S predictability science, numerical modeling, operational forecasting, and developing application sectors. The introduction and conclusion, written by the co-editors, provides historical perspective, unique synthesis and prospects, and emerging opportunities in this exciting, complex and interdisciplinary field. Contains contributed chapters from leaders and experts in sub-seasonal to seasonal science, forecasting and applications Provides a one-stop shop for graduate students, academic and applied researchers, and practitioners in an emerging and interdisciplinary field Offers a synthesis of the state of S2S science through the use of concrete examples, enabling potential users of S2S forecasts to quickly grasp the potential for application in their own decision-making Includes a broad set of topics, illustrated with graphic examples, that highlight interdisciplinary linkages

Review of CCSP Draft Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.3

Review of CCSP Draft Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.3

Author: National Research Council

Publisher: National Academies Press

Published: 2008-03-02

Total Pages: 56

ISBN-13: 030911568X

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This study offered an independent peer review for a synthetic document being produced for the CCSP. It found the draft document to be in a fairly early stage of development and noted several issues needing attention in the revision. The draft was inconsistent across sections with respect to whether or not it accepted two assumptions: that more skillful forecasts necessarily have greater value, and that the most useful form of information is a projected future value of an outcome parameter with an uncertainty distribution. Available scientific evidence gives reason to question these assumptions, and the draft did not discuss the evidence. Among other issues needing attention, the review called for the revised draft to do more to substantiate its claims of the potential benefits of knowledge-action networks and to give more careful consideration to the appropriate balance of roles between governmental and private efforts.


Book Synopsis Review of CCSP Draft Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.3 by : National Research Council

Download or read book Review of CCSP Draft Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.3 written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2008-03-02 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study offered an independent peer review for a synthetic document being produced for the CCSP. It found the draft document to be in a fairly early stage of development and noted several issues needing attention in the revision. The draft was inconsistent across sections with respect to whether or not it accepted two assumptions: that more skillful forecasts necessarily have greater value, and that the most useful form of information is a projected future value of an outcome parameter with an uncertainty distribution. Available scientific evidence gives reason to question these assumptions, and the draft did not discuss the evidence. Among other issues needing attention, the review called for the revised draft to do more to substantiate its claims of the potential benefits of knowledge-action networks and to give more careful consideration to the appropriate balance of roles between governmental and private efforts.

GOALS (Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System) for Predicting Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate

GOALS (Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System) for Predicting Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate

Author: National Research Council

Publisher: National Academies Press

Published: 1994-02-01

Total Pages: 116

ISBN-13: 0309051800

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This book lays out a science plan for a major, international, 15-year research program. The past 10 years have seen significant progress in studies of short-term climate variations, in particular for the region of the tropical Pacific Ocean and the El Nino/Southern Oscillation phenomenon. Some forecast skill with lead times as long as a year in advance has already been developed and put to use. The GOALS program plans to capitalize on this progress by expanding efforts on observations and seasonal-to-interannual predictions to the remainder of the tropics and to higher latitudes.


Book Synopsis GOALS (Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System) for Predicting Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate by : National Research Council

Download or read book GOALS (Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System) for Predicting Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1994-02-01 with total page 116 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book lays out a science plan for a major, international, 15-year research program. The past 10 years have seen significant progress in studies of short-term climate variations, in particular for the region of the tropical Pacific Ocean and the El Nino/Southern Oscillation phenomenon. Some forecast skill with lead times as long as a year in advance has already been developed and put to use. The GOALS program plans to capitalize on this progress by expanding efforts on observations and seasonal-to-interannual predictions to the remainder of the tropics and to higher latitudes.

The Climate Demon

The Climate Demon

Author: R. Saravanan

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 2021-10-21

Total Pages: 400

ISBN-13: 1009040057

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Climate predictions - and the computer models behind them - play a key role in shaping public opinion and our response to the climate crisis. Some people interpret these predictions as 'prophecies of doom' and some others dismiss them as mere speculation, but the vast majority are only vaguely aware of the science behind them. This book gives a balanced view of the strengths and limitations of climate modeling. It covers historical developments, current challenges, and future trends in the field. The accessible discussion of climate modeling only requires a basic knowledge of science. Uncertainties in climate predictions and their implications for assessing climate risk are analyzed, as are the computational challenges faced by future models. The book concludes by highlighting the dangers of climate 'doomism', while also making clear the value of predictive models, and the severe and very real risks posed by anthropogenic climate change.


Book Synopsis The Climate Demon by : R. Saravanan

Download or read book The Climate Demon written by R. Saravanan and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2021-10-21 with total page 400 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Climate predictions - and the computer models behind them - play a key role in shaping public opinion and our response to the climate crisis. Some people interpret these predictions as 'prophecies of doom' and some others dismiss them as mere speculation, but the vast majority are only vaguely aware of the science behind them. This book gives a balanced view of the strengths and limitations of climate modeling. It covers historical developments, current challenges, and future trends in the field. The accessible discussion of climate modeling only requires a basic knowledge of science. Uncertainties in climate predictions and their implications for assessing climate risk are analyzed, as are the computational challenges faced by future models. The book concludes by highlighting the dangers of climate 'doomism', while also making clear the value of predictive models, and the severe and very real risks posed by anthropogenic climate change.

A Scientific Strategy for U.S. Participation in the GOALS (Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System) Component of the CLIVAR (Climate Variability and Predictability) Programme

A Scientific Strategy for U.S. Participation in the GOALS (Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System) Component of the CLIVAR (Climate Variability and Predictability) Programme

Author: National Research Council

Publisher: National Academies Press

Published: 1998-08-13

Total Pages: 90

ISBN-13: 9780309061452

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Book Synopsis A Scientific Strategy for U.S. Participation in the GOALS (Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System) Component of the CLIVAR (Climate Variability and Predictability) Programme by : National Research Council

Download or read book A Scientific Strategy for U.S. Participation in the GOALS (Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System) Component of the CLIVAR (Climate Variability and Predictability) Programme written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1998-08-13 with total page 90 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Predictability of Weather and Climate

Predictability of Weather and Climate

Author: Tim Palmer

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 2006-07-27

Total Pages: 693

ISBN-13: 1139458205

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With contributions by leading experts, including an unpublished paper by Ed Lorenz, this book, first published in 2006, covers many topics in weather and climate predictability. It will interest those in the fields of environmental science and weather and climate forecasting, from graduate students to researchers, by examining theoretical and practical aspects of predictability.


Book Synopsis Predictability of Weather and Climate by : Tim Palmer

Download or read book Predictability of Weather and Climate written by Tim Palmer and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2006-07-27 with total page 693 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: With contributions by leading experts, including an unpublished paper by Ed Lorenz, this book, first published in 2006, covers many topics in weather and climate predictability. It will interest those in the fields of environmental science and weather and climate forecasting, from graduate students to researchers, by examining theoretical and practical aspects of predictability.