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Bounded Rationality in Decision Making Under Uncertainty: Towards Optimal Granularity

Author: Joe Lorkowski

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2017-07-01

Total Pages: 167

ISBN-13: 3319622145

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This book addresses an intriguing question: are our decisions rational? It explains seemingly irrational human decision-making behavior by taking into account our limited ability to process information. It also shows with several examples that optimization under granularity restriction leads to observed human decision-making. Drawing on the Nobel-prize-winning studies by Kahneman and Tversky, researchers have found many examples of seemingly irrational decisions: e.g., we overestimate the probability of rare events. Our explanation is that since human abilities to process information are limited, we operate not with the exact values of relevant quantities, but with “granules” that contain these values. We show that optimization under such granularity indeed leads to observed human behavior. In particular, for the first time, we explain the mysterious empirical dependence of betting odds on actual probabilities. This book can be recommended to all students interested in human decision-making, to researchers whose work involves human decisions, and to practitioners who design and employ systems involving human decision-making —so that they can better utilize our ability to make decisions under uncertainty.

Book Synopsis Bounded Rationality in Decision Making Under Uncertainty: Towards Optimal Granularity by : Joe Lorkowski

Download or read book Bounded Rationality in Decision Making Under Uncertainty: Towards Optimal Granularity written by Joe Lorkowski and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-07-01 with total page 167 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book addresses an intriguing question: are our decisions rational? It explains seemingly irrational human decision-making behavior by taking into account our limited ability to process information. It also shows with several examples that optimization under granularity restriction leads to observed human decision-making. Drawing on the Nobel-prize-winning studies by Kahneman and Tversky, researchers have found many examples of seemingly irrational decisions: e.g., we overestimate the probability of rare events. Our explanation is that since human abilities to process information are limited, we operate not with the exact values of relevant quantities, but with “granules” that contain these values. We show that optimization under such granularity indeed leads to observed human behavior. In particular, for the first time, we explain the mysterious empirical dependence of betting odds on actual probabilities. This book can be recommended to all students interested in human decision-making, to researchers whose work involves human decisions, and to practitioners who design and employ systems involving human decision-making —so that they can better utilize our ability to make decisions under uncertainty.

Bounded Rationality in Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Author: Joseph A. Lorkowski

Publisher:

Published: 2015

Total Pages: 210

ISBN-13:

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Book Synopsis Bounded Rationality in Decision Making Under Uncertainty by : Joseph A. Lorkowski

Download or read book Bounded Rationality in Decision Making Under Uncertainty written by Joseph A. Lorkowski and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 210 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Bounded Rationality

Author: Gerd Gigerenzer

Publisher: MIT Press

Published: 2002-07-26

Total Pages: 404

ISBN-13: 9780262571647

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In a complex and uncertain world, humans and animals make decisions under the constraints of limited knowledge, resources, and time. Yet models of rational decision making in economics, cognitive science, biology, and other fields largely ignore these real constraints and instead assume agents with perfect information and unlimited time. About forty years ago, Herbert Simon challenged this view with his notion of "bounded rationality." Today, bounded rationality has become a fashionable term used for disparate views of reasoning. This book promotes bounded rationality as the key to understanding how real people make decisions. Using the concept of an "adaptive toolbox," a repertoire of fast and frugal rules for decision making under uncertainty, it attempts to impose more order and coherence on the idea of bounded rationality. The contributors view bounded rationality neither as optimization under constraints nor as the study of people's reasoning fallacies. The strategies in the adaptive toolbox dispense with optimization and, for the most part, with calculations of probabilities and utilities. The book extends the concept of bounded rationality from cognitive tools to emotions; it analyzes social norms, imitation, and other cultural tools as rational strategies; and it shows how smart heuristics can exploit the structure of environments.

Book Synopsis Bounded Rationality by : Gerd Gigerenzer

Download or read book Bounded Rationality written by Gerd Gigerenzer and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2002-07-26 with total page 404 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In a complex and uncertain world, humans and animals make decisions under the constraints of limited knowledge, resources, and time. Yet models of rational decision making in economics, cognitive science, biology, and other fields largely ignore these real constraints and instead assume agents with perfect information and unlimited time. About forty years ago, Herbert Simon challenged this view with his notion of "bounded rationality." Today, bounded rationality has become a fashionable term used for disparate views of reasoning. This book promotes bounded rationality as the key to understanding how real people make decisions. Using the concept of an "adaptive toolbox," a repertoire of fast and frugal rules for decision making under uncertainty, it attempts to impose more order and coherence on the idea of bounded rationality. The contributors view bounded rationality neither as optimization under constraints nor as the study of people's reasoning fallacies. The strategies in the adaptive toolbox dispense with optimization and, for the most part, with calculations of probabilities and utilities. The book extends the concept of bounded rationality from cognitive tools to emotions; it analyzes social norms, imitation, and other cultural tools as rational strategies; and it shows how smart heuristics can exploit the structure of environments.

Decision Making Under Uncertainty and Bounded Rationality

Author:

Publisher:

Published: 2005

Total Pages:

ISBN-13:

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Book Synopsis Decision Making Under Uncertainty and Bounded Rationality by :

Download or read book Decision Making Under Uncertainty and Bounded Rationality written by and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Advances in Engineering Management, Innovation, and Sustainability

Author: James Olabode Bamidele Rotimi

Publisher: Springer Nature

Published:

Total Pages: 818

ISBN-13: 3031565444

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Book Synopsis Advances in Engineering Management, Innovation, and Sustainability by : James Olabode Bamidele Rotimi

Download or read book Advances in Engineering Management, Innovation, and Sustainability written by James Olabode Bamidele Rotimi and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on with total page 818 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Decision Making Under Uncertainty and Constraints

Author: Martine Ceberio

Publisher: Springer Nature

Published: 2023-01-03

Total Pages: 286

ISBN-13: 3031164156

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This book shows, on numerous examples, how to make decisions in realistic situations when we have both uncertainty and constraints. In most these situations, the book's emphasis is on the why-question, i.e., on a theoretical explanation for empirical formulas and techniques. Such explanations are important: they help understand why these techniques work well in some cases and not so well in others, and thus, help practitioners decide whether a technique is appropriate for a given situation. Example of applications described in the book ranges from science (biosciences, geosciences, and physics) to electrical and civil engineering, education, psychology and decision making, and religion—and, of course, include computer science, AI (in particular, eXplainable AI), and machine learning. The book can be recommended to researchers and students in these application areas. Many of the examples use general techniques that can be used in other application areas as well, so it is also useful for practitioners and researchers in other areas who are looking for possible theoretical explanations of empirical formulas and techniques.

Book Synopsis Decision Making Under Uncertainty and Constraints by : Martine Ceberio

Download or read book Decision Making Under Uncertainty and Constraints written by Martine Ceberio and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2023-01-03 with total page 286 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book shows, on numerous examples, how to make decisions in realistic situations when we have both uncertainty and constraints. In most these situations, the book's emphasis is on the why-question, i.e., on a theoretical explanation for empirical formulas and techniques. Such explanations are important: they help understand why these techniques work well in some cases and not so well in others, and thus, help practitioners decide whether a technique is appropriate for a given situation. Example of applications described in the book ranges from science (biosciences, geosciences, and physics) to electrical and civil engineering, education, psychology and decision making, and religion—and, of course, include computer science, AI (in particular, eXplainable AI), and machine learning. The book can be recommended to researchers and students in these application areas. Many of the examples use general techniques that can be used in other application areas as well, so it is also useful for practitioners and researchers in other areas who are looking for possible theoretical explanations of empirical formulas and techniques.

Decision Making Under Uncertainty, with a Special Emphasis on Geosciences and Education

Author: Laxman Bokati

Publisher: Springer Nature

Published: 2023-03-21

Total Pages: 203

ISBN-13: 3031260864

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This book describes new techniques for making decisions in situations with uncertainty and new applications of decision-making techniques. The main emphasis is on situations when it is difficult to decrease uncertainty. For example, it is very difficult to accurately predict human economic behavior, so in economics, it is very important to take this uncertainty into account when making decisions. Other areas where it is difficult to decrease uncertainty are geosciences and teaching. The book analyzes the general problem of decision making and shows how its results can be applied to economics, geosciences, and teaching. Since all these applications involve computing, the book also shows how these results can be applied to computing, including deep learning and quantum computing. The book is recommended to researchers, practitioners, and students who want to learn more about decision making under uncertainty—and who want to work on remaining challenges.

Book Synopsis Decision Making Under Uncertainty, with a Special Emphasis on Geosciences and Education by : Laxman Bokati

Download or read book Decision Making Under Uncertainty, with a Special Emphasis on Geosciences and Education written by Laxman Bokati and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2023-03-21 with total page 203 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book describes new techniques for making decisions in situations with uncertainty and new applications of decision-making techniques. The main emphasis is on situations when it is difficult to decrease uncertainty. For example, it is very difficult to accurately predict human economic behavior, so in economics, it is very important to take this uncertainty into account when making decisions. Other areas where it is difficult to decrease uncertainty are geosciences and teaching. The book analyzes the general problem of decision making and shows how its results can be applied to economics, geosciences, and teaching. Since all these applications involve computing, the book also shows how these results can be applied to computing, including deep learning and quantum computing. The book is recommended to researchers, practitioners, and students who want to learn more about decision making under uncertainty—and who want to work on remaining challenges.

Bounded Rationality in Decision-making

Author: Helle Nielsen

Publisher:

Published: 2009

Total Pages: 264

ISBN-13:

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Challenging standard economic models, this book shows how farmers tend to use cognitive shortcuts and how professional pride frequently trumps profit considerations when farmers make decisions about fertilizers and other types of decisions. This indicates that environmental regulation based on economic incentives may not work as effectively as economic theory and ex ante policy analyses would have it. Rather than assuming that regulations respond to incentive-based policies, this book examines the ways in which they do, which is rare in the policy-making literature. Furthermore, the book demonstrates in a real world setting how bounded rationality plays out, whereas bounded rationality in decision-making has typically been studied in a laboratory setting. The book contains a comprehensive and comparative review of rational and bounded rationality models of behavior. It explores concepts developed in books such as Administrative Behaviour by Herbert Simon and, A Behavioural Theory of the Firm by Cyert and March, and it reviews their implications for economic theory and environmental policy. Empirically, the book examines the responses of farmers in Denmark to fertilizer regulation and the decision processes they go through regarding fertilizer levels. Fertilizer regulation builds on economically optimal levels and therefore offers a rational standard against which to compare actual decisions on fertilizer levels. This lends the study a significant methodological advantage, and it represents a novel approach to the study of rationality. It combines quantitative analysis of fertilizer practices among Danish farmers over more than 10 years with qualitative interviews. These are compared with analysis other types of decisions showing that decision processes and the weight assigned to economic considerations varies by type of decisions.

Book Synopsis Bounded Rationality in Decision-making by : Helle Nielsen

Download or read book Bounded Rationality in Decision-making written by Helle Nielsen and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 264 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Challenging standard economic models, this book shows how farmers tend to use cognitive shortcuts and how professional pride frequently trumps profit considerations when farmers make decisions about fertilizers and other types of decisions. This indicates that environmental regulation based on economic incentives may not work as effectively as economic theory and ex ante policy analyses would have it. Rather than assuming that regulations respond to incentive-based policies, this book examines the ways in which they do, which is rare in the policy-making literature. Furthermore, the book demonstrates in a real world setting how bounded rationality plays out, whereas bounded rationality in decision-making has typically been studied in a laboratory setting. The book contains a comprehensive and comparative review of rational and bounded rationality models of behavior. It explores concepts developed in books such as Administrative Behaviour by Herbert Simon and, A Behavioural Theory of the Firm by Cyert and March, and it reviews their implications for economic theory and environmental policy. Empirically, the book examines the responses of farmers in Denmark to fertilizer regulation and the decision processes they go through regarding fertilizer levels. Fertilizer regulation builds on economically optimal levels and therefore offers a rational standard against which to compare actual decisions on fertilizer levels. This lends the study a significant methodological advantage, and it represents a novel approach to the study of rationality. It combines quantitative analysis of fertilizer practices among Danish farmers over more than 10 years with qualitative interviews. These are compared with analysis other types of decisions showing that decision processes and the weight assigned to economic considerations varies by type of decisions.

Credible Asset Allocation, Optimal Transport Methods, and Related Topics

Author: Songsak Sriboonchitta

Publisher: Springer Nature

Published: 2022-07-29

Total Pages: 762

ISBN-13: 3030972739

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This book describes state-of-the-art economic ideas and how these ideas can be (and are) used to make economic decision (in particular, to optimally allocate assets) and to gauge the results of different economic decisions (in particular, by using optimal transport methods). Special emphasis is paid to machine learning techniques (including deep learning) and to different aspects of quantum econometrics—when quantum physics and quantum computing models are techniques are applied to study economic phenomena. Applications range from more traditional economic areas to more non-traditional topics such as economic aspects of tourism, cryptocurrencies, telecommunication infrastructure, and pandemic. This book helps student to learn new techniques, practitioners to become better knowledgeable of the state-of-the-art econometric techniques, and researchers to further develop these important research directions

Book Synopsis Credible Asset Allocation, Optimal Transport Methods, and Related Topics by : Songsak Sriboonchitta

Download or read book Credible Asset Allocation, Optimal Transport Methods, and Related Topics written by Songsak Sriboonchitta and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2022-07-29 with total page 762 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book describes state-of-the-art economic ideas and how these ideas can be (and are) used to make economic decision (in particular, to optimally allocate assets) and to gauge the results of different economic decisions (in particular, by using optimal transport methods). Special emphasis is paid to machine learning techniques (including deep learning) and to different aspects of quantum econometrics—when quantum physics and quantum computing models are techniques are applied to study economic phenomena. Applications range from more traditional economic areas to more non-traditional topics such as economic aspects of tourism, cryptocurrencies, telecommunication infrastructure, and pandemic. This book helps student to learn new techniques, practitioners to become better knowledgeable of the state-of-the-art econometric techniques, and researchers to further develop these important research directions

Decision-making Under Bounded Rationality and Model Uncertainty

Author: Jordi Grau Moya

Publisher:

Published: 2016

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13:

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Book Synopsis Decision-making Under Bounded Rationality and Model Uncertainty by : Jordi Grau Moya

Download or read book Decision-making Under Bounded Rationality and Model Uncertainty written by Jordi Grau Moya and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: