Classification of Summertime West Coast Fog and Stratus Events and the Development of Fog and Stratus Forecast Techniques

Classification of Summertime West Coast Fog and Stratus Events and the Development of Fog and Stratus Forecast Techniques

Author: Greg S. Ireton

Publisher:

Published: 2001-09-01

Total Pages: 149

ISBN-13: 9781423526261

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The fog and stratus that frequently plagues the West Coast in the summer months is responsible for a variety of impacts on everyday life, the greatest impact on aviation. Many flight delays and cancellations that are experienced around the Pacific Rim are attributed to the development and evolution of the fog and stratus on the U.S. West Coast. This thesis studies the evolution of the fog and stratus events during the summer of 2000 through the use of geostationary, GOES-10, visual satellite imagery to develop a classification scheme. The synoptic-scale weather patterns as well as the mesoscale coastal regime were then associated with a type of stratus evolution. The Navy's mesoscale model, coupled ocean/atmosphere mesoscale prediction system (COAMPS), provided detailed simulation of 11 events to highlight the boundary layer evolution and its relationship to fog and stratus evolution. The fog and stratus classification scheme produced several consistent synoptic and mesoscale signals associated with stratus evolution. These relationships provide some forecasting techniques that should aid forecasters with predicting the evolution of fog and status events.


Book Synopsis Classification of Summertime West Coast Fog and Stratus Events and the Development of Fog and Stratus Forecast Techniques by : Greg S. Ireton

Download or read book Classification of Summertime West Coast Fog and Stratus Events and the Development of Fog and Stratus Forecast Techniques written by Greg S. Ireton and published by . This book was released on 2001-09-01 with total page 149 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The fog and stratus that frequently plagues the West Coast in the summer months is responsible for a variety of impacts on everyday life, the greatest impact on aviation. Many flight delays and cancellations that are experienced around the Pacific Rim are attributed to the development and evolution of the fog and stratus on the U.S. West Coast. This thesis studies the evolution of the fog and stratus events during the summer of 2000 through the use of geostationary, GOES-10, visual satellite imagery to develop a classification scheme. The synoptic-scale weather patterns as well as the mesoscale coastal regime were then associated with a type of stratus evolution. The Navy's mesoscale model, coupled ocean/atmosphere mesoscale prediction system (COAMPS), provided detailed simulation of 11 events to highlight the boundary layer evolution and its relationship to fog and stratus evolution. The fog and stratus classification scheme produced several consistent synoptic and mesoscale signals associated with stratus evolution. These relationships provide some forecasting techniques that should aid forecasters with predicting the evolution of fog and status events.

Fog Sequences on the Central California Coast with Examples

Fog Sequences on the Central California Coast with Examples

Author: Craig Allen Peterson

Publisher:

Published: 1975

Total Pages: 190

ISBN-13:

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In the low visibility range, forecasts during the summer period along the west coast of California are presently not made with any degree of accuracy. Modeling sequences associated with the nonfrontal fog formations during the summer period offer the possibility of improving fog diagnosis. Such sequences have been in use in Southern California for some time. This study uses a synoptic approach, focusing on sequences observed in the non-diurnal aspects of coastal fog. A development model is presented in order to delineate patterns of the fog phenomenon along the Central California coast. Actually observed fog situations are presented in order to evaluate the model and determine if day-to-day changes in specific non-diurnal indices represent trends which can aid forecasters. Results show that, although the model is general in nature, a correlation between the stages of the observed fog exists. The relationship of the time of occurrence of dense fog and the trends in the height of the inversion base and daily maximum temperatures at the top of the inversion and the inland valley are pointed out. (Author).


Book Synopsis Fog Sequences on the Central California Coast with Examples by : Craig Allen Peterson

Download or read book Fog Sequences on the Central California Coast with Examples written by Craig Allen Peterson and published by . This book was released on 1975 with total page 190 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the low visibility range, forecasts during the summer period along the west coast of California are presently not made with any degree of accuracy. Modeling sequences associated with the nonfrontal fog formations during the summer period offer the possibility of improving fog diagnosis. Such sequences have been in use in Southern California for some time. This study uses a synoptic approach, focusing on sequences observed in the non-diurnal aspects of coastal fog. A development model is presented in order to delineate patterns of the fog phenomenon along the Central California coast. Actually observed fog situations are presented in order to evaluate the model and determine if day-to-day changes in specific non-diurnal indices represent trends which can aid forecasters. Results show that, although the model is general in nature, a correlation between the stages of the observed fog exists. The relationship of the time of occurrence of dense fog and the trends in the height of the inversion base and daily maximum temperatures at the top of the inversion and the inland valley are pointed out. (Author).

Marine Fog Studies Off the California Coast

Marine Fog Studies Off the California Coast

Author: Eugene J. Mack

Publisher:

Published: 1975

Total Pages: 102

ISBN-13:

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;Contents: Summary of marine fog occurrence off the West Coast; The importance of organized vertical motions in coastal fog; Bay fog (marine fog formation through continental influences); Observations of a mesoscale organization of fog occurrence off the West Coast.


Book Synopsis Marine Fog Studies Off the California Coast by : Eugene J. Mack

Download or read book Marine Fog Studies Off the California Coast written by Eugene J. Mack and published by . This book was released on 1975 with total page 102 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: ;Contents: Summary of marine fog occurrence off the West Coast; The importance of organized vertical motions in coastal fog; Bay fog (marine fog formation through continental influences); Observations of a mesoscale organization of fog occurrence off the West Coast.

Forecasting Marine Fog on the West Coast of the United States Using a Linear Discriminant Analysis Approach

Forecasting Marine Fog on the West Coast of the United States Using a Linear Discriminant Analysis Approach

Author: Michael Charles McConnell

Publisher:

Published: 1975

Total Pages: 220

ISBN-13:

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Book Synopsis Forecasting Marine Fog on the West Coast of the United States Using a Linear Discriminant Analysis Approach by : Michael Charles McConnell

Download or read book Forecasting Marine Fog on the West Coast of the United States Using a Linear Discriminant Analysis Approach written by Michael Charles McConnell and published by . This book was released on 1975 with total page 220 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

An Open-ocean Marine Fog Development and Forecast Model for Ocean Weather Station Papa

An Open-ocean Marine Fog Development and Forecast Model for Ocean Weather Station Papa

Author: Robert Louis Clark

Publisher:

Published: 1981

Total Pages: 274

ISBN-13:

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Marine fog forecasts during the summer period in the North Pacific are not made presently with any acceptable degree of accuracy. Objective fog development models exist and are used with some success for localized coastal regions of the western U.S.; scarcity of accurate data has hindered creation of a reliable open-ocean model. The Eulerian single-station approach, utilizing a segment of the complete accurate data of Ocean Weather Station Papa (50N, 145W) is applied in this study to an objective marine fog forecasting model. The time-series study of significant atmospheric variables at OWS Papa, when coupled with a chronological synoptic overview, delineates accurately fog/no fog sequences in the summer months of 1973 and 1977. Actual observed fog situations are evaluated by the general model and presented in relation to open-ocean fog indices, NOAA 5 satellite coverage and synoptic history. The open-ocean forecast model is tested on an independent data set for the month of July 1975 at OWS Papa, with favorable results. The research delineates four required indices that must all be positive to forecast fog. These indices, when plotted daily in the region of OWS Papa allow a single station to predict, with some confidence out to twenty-four hours, the occurrence of advection fog. (Author).


Book Synopsis An Open-ocean Marine Fog Development and Forecast Model for Ocean Weather Station Papa by : Robert Louis Clark

Download or read book An Open-ocean Marine Fog Development and Forecast Model for Ocean Weather Station Papa written by Robert Louis Clark and published by . This book was released on 1981 with total page 274 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Marine fog forecasts during the summer period in the North Pacific are not made presently with any acceptable degree of accuracy. Objective fog development models exist and are used with some success for localized coastal regions of the western U.S.; scarcity of accurate data has hindered creation of a reliable open-ocean model. The Eulerian single-station approach, utilizing a segment of the complete accurate data of Ocean Weather Station Papa (50N, 145W) is applied in this study to an objective marine fog forecasting model. The time-series study of significant atmospheric variables at OWS Papa, when coupled with a chronological synoptic overview, delineates accurately fog/no fog sequences in the summer months of 1973 and 1977. Actual observed fog situations are evaluated by the general model and presented in relation to open-ocean fog indices, NOAA 5 satellite coverage and synoptic history. The open-ocean forecast model is tested on an independent data set for the month of July 1975 at OWS Papa, with favorable results. The research delineates four required indices that must all be positive to forecast fog. These indices, when plotted daily in the region of OWS Papa allow a single station to predict, with some confidence out to twenty-four hours, the occurrence of advection fog. (Author).

Santa Ana Associated Offshore Fog

Santa Ana Associated Offshore Fog

Author: Douglas Allen Backes

Publisher:

Published: 1977

Total Pages: 260

ISBN-13:

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Aircraft measurements made offshore during a coastal fog sequence by R.A. Markson are analyzed. Fog occurrence and areal extent are determined using aircraft, ship and shore station observations obtained during the Cooperative Experiment in West Coast Oceanography and Meteorology--1976 along with analyzed satellite visual and infra-red imagery. The offshore conditions are compared with those at the shore stations using selected fog indices. Photographs of special features observed are included. The offshore conditions are classified into phases by assigning limits within the specified fog indices used in the modified Leipper fog model. The sequence of observed fog events is compared to the ideal sequence. The trends in the sequence are analyzed and a general relationship between the phase sequence and the local offshore flow is indicated. The Leipper indices, the San Diego raob and the sequential fog model appear to be useful in fog prediction for the nearshore oceanic region from San Diego the Point Conception. (Author).


Book Synopsis Santa Ana Associated Offshore Fog by : Douglas Allen Backes

Download or read book Santa Ana Associated Offshore Fog written by Douglas Allen Backes and published by . This book was released on 1977 with total page 260 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Aircraft measurements made offshore during a coastal fog sequence by R.A. Markson are analyzed. Fog occurrence and areal extent are determined using aircraft, ship and shore station observations obtained during the Cooperative Experiment in West Coast Oceanography and Meteorology--1976 along with analyzed satellite visual and infra-red imagery. The offshore conditions are compared with those at the shore stations using selected fog indices. Photographs of special features observed are included. The offshore conditions are classified into phases by assigning limits within the specified fog indices used in the modified Leipper fog model. The sequence of observed fog events is compared to the ideal sequence. The trends in the sequence are analyzed and a general relationship between the phase sequence and the local offshore flow is indicated. The Leipper indices, the San Diego raob and the sequential fog model appear to be useful in fog prediction for the nearshore oceanic region from San Diego the Point Conception. (Author).

A Statistically-Based Method for Predicting Fog and Stratus Dissipation

A Statistically-Based Method for Predicting Fog and Stratus Dissipation

Author: Louis L. III. Lussier

Publisher:

Published: 2004-03-01

Total Pages: 89

ISBN-13: 9781423517108

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The method is a success in producing forecasts for ceiling and visibility criteria that had never previously been examined. It is suggested that the 15 OWS incorporate this methodology into their operational forecasting routine. Ceiling forecasts at Dover AFB and McGuire AFB show improvements over conditional climatology ranging from 1-51% with an average improvement of 19.2% when verified against an independent data set. McGuire AFB visibility forecasts show an average improvement over conditional climatology of 3%. These findings are of particular importance to the Air Force in general and specifically to the 15th Operational Weather Squadron (15 OWS) who produces forecasts for these airfields. Demonstrating a method superior to conditional climatology is expected to provide improved forecasts and flight operations in this region. The two forecasts for Andrews AFB show relatively low mean square errors, but are unable to consistently improve on conditional climatology, demonstrating an average decrease in forecasting skill of 42%. Small samples of data could be the reason for the decrease in skill. The Dover visibility forecast also shows negative forecast skill, with an average decrease of 39%. The method is a success in producing forecasts for ceiling and visibility criteria that had never previously been examined. Further research into the forecasts could produce a powerful tool consistently able to defeat conditional climatology. It is suggested that the 15 OWS incorporate this methodology into their operational forecasting routine.


Book Synopsis A Statistically-Based Method for Predicting Fog and Stratus Dissipation by : Louis L. III. Lussier

Download or read book A Statistically-Based Method for Predicting Fog and Stratus Dissipation written by Louis L. III. Lussier and published by . This book was released on 2004-03-01 with total page 89 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The method is a success in producing forecasts for ceiling and visibility criteria that had never previously been examined. It is suggested that the 15 OWS incorporate this methodology into their operational forecasting routine. Ceiling forecasts at Dover AFB and McGuire AFB show improvements over conditional climatology ranging from 1-51% with an average improvement of 19.2% when verified against an independent data set. McGuire AFB visibility forecasts show an average improvement over conditional climatology of 3%. These findings are of particular importance to the Air Force in general and specifically to the 15th Operational Weather Squadron (15 OWS) who produces forecasts for these airfields. Demonstrating a method superior to conditional climatology is expected to provide improved forecasts and flight operations in this region. The two forecasts for Andrews AFB show relatively low mean square errors, but are unable to consistently improve on conditional climatology, demonstrating an average decrease in forecasting skill of 42%. Small samples of data could be the reason for the decrease in skill. The Dover visibility forecast also shows negative forecast skill, with an average decrease of 39%. The method is a success in producing forecasts for ceiling and visibility criteria that had never previously been examined. Further research into the forecasts could produce a powerful tool consistently able to defeat conditional climatology. It is suggested that the 15 OWS incorporate this methodology into their operational forecasting routine.

Fog Occurrence and Forecasting at Two North Pacific Ocean Stations, May and June, 1953

Fog Occurrence and Forecasting at Two North Pacific Ocean Stations, May and June, 1953

Author: Frank John Misciasci

Publisher:

Published: 1974

Total Pages: 242

ISBN-13:

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Book Synopsis Fog Occurrence and Forecasting at Two North Pacific Ocean Stations, May and June, 1953 by : Frank John Misciasci

Download or read book Fog Occurrence and Forecasting at Two North Pacific Ocean Stations, May and June, 1953 written by Frank John Misciasci and published by . This book was released on 1974 with total page 242 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Marine Fog: Challenges and Advancements in Observations, Modeling, and Forecasting

Marine Fog: Challenges and Advancements in Observations, Modeling, and Forecasting

Author: Darko Koračin

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2017-01-28

Total Pages: 537

ISBN-13: 3319452290

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This volume presents the history of marine fog research and applications, and discusses the physical processes leading to fog's formation, evolution, and dissipation. A special emphasis is on the challenges and advancements of fog observation and modeling as well as on efforts toward operational fog forecasting and linkages and feedbacks between marine fog and the environment.


Book Synopsis Marine Fog: Challenges and Advancements in Observations, Modeling, and Forecasting by : Darko Koračin

Download or read book Marine Fog: Challenges and Advancements in Observations, Modeling, and Forecasting written by Darko Koračin and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-01-28 with total page 537 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume presents the history of marine fog research and applications, and discusses the physical processes leading to fog's formation, evolution, and dissipation. A special emphasis is on the challenges and advancements of fog observation and modeling as well as on efforts toward operational fog forecasting and linkages and feedbacks between marine fog and the environment.

Forecasting Advective Sea Fog with the Use of Classification and Regression Tree Analyses for Kunsan Air Base

Forecasting Advective Sea Fog with the Use of Classification and Regression Tree Analyses for Kunsan Air Base

Author: Danielle M. Lewis

Publisher:

Published: 2004-03-01

Total Pages: 103

ISBN-13: 9781423516491

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Advective sea fog frequently plagues Kunsan Air Base (AB), Republic of Korea, in the spring and summer seasons. It is responsible for a variety of impacts on military operations, the greatest being to aviation. To date, there are no suitable methods developed for forecasting advective sea fog at Kunsan, primarily due to a lack of understanding of sea fog formation under various synoptic situations over the Yellow Sea. This work explored the feasibility of predicting sea fog development with a 24-hour forecast lead time. Before exploratory data analysis was performed, a geographical introduction to the region was provided along with a discussion of basic elements of fog formation, the physical properties of fog droplets, and its dissipation. Examined in this work were data sets of Kunsan surface observations, upstream upper air data, sea surface temperatures over the Yellow Sea, and modeled analyses of gridded data over the Yellow Sea. A complete ten year period of record was examined for inclusion into data mining models to find predictive patterns. The data were first examined using logistic regression techniques, followed my classification and regression tree analysis (CART) for exploring possible concealed predictors. Regression revealed weak relationships between the target variable (sea fog) and upper air predictors, with stronger relationships between the target variable and sea surface temperatures. CART results determined the importance between the target variable and upstream upper air predictors, and established specific criteria to be used when forecasting target variable events. The results of the regression and CART data mining analyses are summarized as forecasting guidelines to air forecasters in predicting the evolution of sea fog events and advection over the area.


Book Synopsis Forecasting Advective Sea Fog with the Use of Classification and Regression Tree Analyses for Kunsan Air Base by : Danielle M. Lewis

Download or read book Forecasting Advective Sea Fog with the Use of Classification and Regression Tree Analyses for Kunsan Air Base written by Danielle M. Lewis and published by . This book was released on 2004-03-01 with total page 103 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Advective sea fog frequently plagues Kunsan Air Base (AB), Republic of Korea, in the spring and summer seasons. It is responsible for a variety of impacts on military operations, the greatest being to aviation. To date, there are no suitable methods developed for forecasting advective sea fog at Kunsan, primarily due to a lack of understanding of sea fog formation under various synoptic situations over the Yellow Sea. This work explored the feasibility of predicting sea fog development with a 24-hour forecast lead time. Before exploratory data analysis was performed, a geographical introduction to the region was provided along with a discussion of basic elements of fog formation, the physical properties of fog droplets, and its dissipation. Examined in this work were data sets of Kunsan surface observations, upstream upper air data, sea surface temperatures over the Yellow Sea, and modeled analyses of gridded data over the Yellow Sea. A complete ten year period of record was examined for inclusion into data mining models to find predictive patterns. The data were first examined using logistic regression techniques, followed my classification and regression tree analysis (CART) for exploring possible concealed predictors. Regression revealed weak relationships between the target variable (sea fog) and upper air predictors, with stronger relationships between the target variable and sea surface temperatures. CART results determined the importance between the target variable and upstream upper air predictors, and established specific criteria to be used when forecasting target variable events. The results of the regression and CART data mining analyses are summarized as forecasting guidelines to air forecasters in predicting the evolution of sea fog events and advection over the area.