Cognition and Chance

Cognition and Chance

Author: Raymond S. Nickerson

Publisher: Psychology Press

Published: 2004-06-24

Total Pages: 798

ISBN-13: 113561461X

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Lack of ability to think probabilistically makes one prone to a variety of irrational fears and vulnerable to scams designed to exploit probabilistic naiveté, impairs decision making under uncertainty, facilitates the misinterpretation of statistical information, and precludes critical evaluation of likelihood claims. Cognition and Chance presents an overview of the information needed to avoid such pitfalls and to assess and respond to probabilistic situations in a rational way. Dr. Nickerson investigates such questions as how good individuals are at thinking probabilistically and how consistent their reasoning under uncertainty is with principles of mathematical statistics and probability theory. He reviews evidence that has been produced in researchers' attempts to investigate these and similar types of questions. Seven conceptual chapters address such topics as probability, chance, randomness, coincidences, inverse probability, paradoxes, dilemmas, and statistics. The remaining five chapters focus on empirical studies of individuals' abilities and limitations as probabilistic thinkers. Topics include estimation and prediction, perception of covariation, choice under uncertainty, and people as intuitive probabilists. Cognition and Chance is intended to appeal to researchers and students in the areas of probability, statistics, psychology, business, economics, decision theory, and social dilemmas.


Book Synopsis Cognition and Chance by : Raymond S. Nickerson

Download or read book Cognition and Chance written by Raymond S. Nickerson and published by Psychology Press. This book was released on 2004-06-24 with total page 798 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Lack of ability to think probabilistically makes one prone to a variety of irrational fears and vulnerable to scams designed to exploit probabilistic naiveté, impairs decision making under uncertainty, facilitates the misinterpretation of statistical information, and precludes critical evaluation of likelihood claims. Cognition and Chance presents an overview of the information needed to avoid such pitfalls and to assess and respond to probabilistic situations in a rational way. Dr. Nickerson investigates such questions as how good individuals are at thinking probabilistically and how consistent their reasoning under uncertainty is with principles of mathematical statistics and probability theory. He reviews evidence that has been produced in researchers' attempts to investigate these and similar types of questions. Seven conceptual chapters address such topics as probability, chance, randomness, coincidences, inverse probability, paradoxes, dilemmas, and statistics. The remaining five chapters focus on empirical studies of individuals' abilities and limitations as probabilistic thinkers. Topics include estimation and prediction, perception of covariation, choice under uncertainty, and people as intuitive probabilists. Cognition and Chance is intended to appeal to researchers and students in the areas of probability, statistics, psychology, business, economics, decision theory, and social dilemmas.


Cognition and Chance

Cognition and Chance

Author: Raymond S. Nickerson

Publisher: Psychology Press

Published: 2004-06-24

Total Pages: 450

ISBN-13: 1135614628

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This book presents an overview of the necessary information needed to make educational assumptions about the statistical or probable characteristics of a situation. The book can be used as a supplemental text in courses on probability, logic, statistics,


Book Synopsis Cognition and Chance by : Raymond S. Nickerson

Download or read book Cognition and Chance written by Raymond S. Nickerson and published by Psychology Press. This book was released on 2004-06-24 with total page 450 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents an overview of the necessary information needed to make educational assumptions about the statistical or probable characteristics of a situation. The book can be used as a supplemental text in courses on probability, logic, statistics,


Cognition and Perception

Cognition and Perception

Author: Athanassios Raftopoulos

Publisher: MIT Press

Published: 2009-07-17

Total Pages: 447

ISBN-13: 0262258412

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An argument that there are perceptual mechanisms that retrieve information in cognitively and conceptually unmediated ways and that this sheds light on various philosophical issues. In Cognition and Perception, Athanassios Raftopoulos discusses the cognitive penetrability of perception and claims that there is a part of visual processes (which he calls “perception”) that results in representational states with nonconceptual content; that is, a part that retrieves information from visual scenes in conceptually unmediated, “bottom-up,” theory-neutral ways. Raftopoulos applies this insight to problems in philosophy of science, philosophy of mind, and epistemology, and examines how we access the external world through our perception as well as what we can know of that world. To show that there is a theory-neutral part of existence, Raftopoulos turns to cognitive science and argues that there is substantial scientific evidence. He then claims that perception induces representational states with nonconceptual content and examines the nature of the nonconceptual content. The nonconceptual information retrieved, he argues, does not allow the identification or recognition of an object but only its individuation as a discrete persistent object with certain spatiotemporal properties and other features. Object individuation, however, suffices to determine the referents of perceptual demonstratives. Raftopoulos defends his account in the context of current discussions on the issue of the theory-ladenness of perception (namely the Fodor-Churchland debate), and then discusses the repercussions of his thesis for problems in the philosophy of science. Finally, Raftopoulos claims that there is a minimal form of realism that is defensible. This minimal realism holds that objects, their spatiotemporal properties, and such features as shape, orientation, and motion are real, mind-independent properties in the world.


Book Synopsis Cognition and Perception by : Athanassios Raftopoulos

Download or read book Cognition and Perception written by Athanassios Raftopoulos and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2009-07-17 with total page 447 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An argument that there are perceptual mechanisms that retrieve information in cognitively and conceptually unmediated ways and that this sheds light on various philosophical issues. In Cognition and Perception, Athanassios Raftopoulos discusses the cognitive penetrability of perception and claims that there is a part of visual processes (which he calls “perception”) that results in representational states with nonconceptual content; that is, a part that retrieves information from visual scenes in conceptually unmediated, “bottom-up,” theory-neutral ways. Raftopoulos applies this insight to problems in philosophy of science, philosophy of mind, and epistemology, and examines how we access the external world through our perception as well as what we can know of that world. To show that there is a theory-neutral part of existence, Raftopoulos turns to cognitive science and argues that there is substantial scientific evidence. He then claims that perception induces representational states with nonconceptual content and examines the nature of the nonconceptual content. The nonconceptual information retrieved, he argues, does not allow the identification or recognition of an object but only its individuation as a discrete persistent object with certain spatiotemporal properties and other features. Object individuation, however, suffices to determine the referents of perceptual demonstratives. Raftopoulos defends his account in the context of current discussions on the issue of the theory-ladenness of perception (namely the Fodor-Churchland debate), and then discusses the repercussions of his thesis for problems in the philosophy of science. Finally, Raftopoulos claims that there is a minimal form of realism that is defensible. This minimal realism holds that objects, their spatiotemporal properties, and such features as shape, orientation, and motion are real, mind-independent properties in the world.


Cognition and Conditionals

Cognition and Conditionals

Author: Mike Oaksford

Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA

Published: 2010

Total Pages: 420

ISBN-13: 0199233292

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The conditional, if...then, is probably the most important term in natural language and forms the core of systems of logic and mental representation. Cognition and Conditionals is the first volume for over 20 years that brings together recent developments in the cognitive science and psychology of conditional reasoning.


Book Synopsis Cognition and Conditionals by : Mike Oaksford

Download or read book Cognition and Conditionals written by Mike Oaksford and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 2010 with total page 420 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The conditional, if...then, is probably the most important term in natural language and forms the core of systems of logic and mental representation. Cognition and Conditionals is the first volume for over 20 years that brings together recent developments in the cognitive science and psychology of conditional reasoning.


Intentions and Intentionality

Intentions and Intentionality

Author: Bertram F. Malle

Publisher: MIT Press

Published: 2001

Total Pages: 444

ISBN-13: 9780262632676

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Highlights the roles of intention and intentionality in social cognition.


Book Synopsis Intentions and Intentionality by : Bertram F. Malle

Download or read book Intentions and Intentionality written by Bertram F. Malle and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2001 with total page 444 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Highlights the roles of intention and intentionality in social cognition.


Perception, Cognition, and Decision Training

Perception, Cognition, and Decision Training

Author: Joan N. Vickers

Publisher: Human Kinetics

Published: 2007

Total Pages: 292

ISBN-13: 9780736042567

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Joan Vickers presents evidence on gaze control within visual perception and action in sport as well as the science underlying decision training.


Book Synopsis Perception, Cognition, and Decision Training by : Joan N. Vickers

Download or read book Perception, Cognition, and Decision Training written by Joan N. Vickers and published by Human Kinetics. This book was released on 2007 with total page 292 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Joan Vickers presents evidence on gaze control within visual perception and action in sport as well as the science underlying decision training.


Unified Theories of Cognition

Unified Theories of Cognition

Author: Allen Newell

Publisher: Harvard University Press

Published: 1994

Total Pages: 580

ISBN-13: 9780674921016

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Newell introduces Soar, an architecture for general cognition. A pioneer system in AI, Soar is the first problem-solver to create its own subgoals and learn continuously from its own experience. Its ability to operate within the real-time constraints of intelligent behavior illustrates important characteristics of human cognition.


Book Synopsis Unified Theories of Cognition by : Allen Newell

Download or read book Unified Theories of Cognition written by Allen Newell and published by Harvard University Press. This book was released on 1994 with total page 580 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Newell introduces Soar, an architecture for general cognition. A pioneer system in AI, Soar is the first problem-solver to create its own subgoals and learn continuously from its own experience. Its ability to operate within the real-time constraints of intelligent behavior illustrates important characteristics of human cognition.


Music and Probability

Music and Probability

Author: David Temperley

Publisher: MIT Press

Published: 2007

Total Pages: 257

ISBN-13: 0262201666

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Exploring the application of Bayesian probabilistic modeling techniques to musical issues, including the perception of key and meter.


Book Synopsis Music and Probability by : David Temperley

Download or read book Music and Probability written by David Temperley and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2007 with total page 257 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Exploring the application of Bayesian probabilistic modeling techniques to musical issues, including the perception of key and meter.


Thinking, Fast and Slow

Thinking, Fast and Slow

Author: Daniel Kahneman

Publisher: Farrar, Straus and Giroux

Published: 2011-10-25

Total Pages: 511

ISBN-13: 1429969350

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Major New York Times bestseller Winner of the National Academy of Sciences Best Book Award in 2012 Selected by the New York Times Book Review as one of the ten best books of 2011 A Globe and Mail Best Books of the Year 2011 Title One of The Economist's 2011 Books of the Year One of The Wall Street Journal's Best Nonfiction Books of the Year 2011 2013 Presidential Medal of Freedom Recipient Kahneman's work with Amos Tversky is the subject of Michael Lewis's The Undoing Project: A Friendship That Changed Our Minds In his mega bestseller, Thinking, Fast and Slow, Daniel Kahneman, the renowned psychologist and winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics, takes us on a groundbreaking tour of the mind and explains the two systems that drive the way we think. System 1 is fast, intuitive, and emotional; System 2 is slower, more deliberative, and more logical. The impact of overconfidence on corporate strategies, the difficulties of predicting what will make us happy in the future, the profound effect of cognitive biases on everything from playing the stock market to planning our next vacation—each of these can be understood only by knowing how the two systems shape our judgments and decisions. Engaging the reader in a lively conversation about how we think, Kahneman reveals where we can and cannot trust our intuitions and how we can tap into the benefits of slow thinking. He offers practical and enlightening insights into how choices are made in both our business and our personal lives—and how we can use different techniques to guard against the mental glitches that often get us into trouble. Winner of the National Academy of Sciences Best Book Award and the Los Angeles Times Book Prize and selected by The New York Times Book Review as one of the ten best books of 2011, Thinking, Fast and Slow is destined to be a classic.


Book Synopsis Thinking, Fast and Slow by : Daniel Kahneman

Download or read book Thinking, Fast and Slow written by Daniel Kahneman and published by Farrar, Straus and Giroux. This book was released on 2011-10-25 with total page 511 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Major New York Times bestseller Winner of the National Academy of Sciences Best Book Award in 2012 Selected by the New York Times Book Review as one of the ten best books of 2011 A Globe and Mail Best Books of the Year 2011 Title One of The Economist's 2011 Books of the Year One of The Wall Street Journal's Best Nonfiction Books of the Year 2011 2013 Presidential Medal of Freedom Recipient Kahneman's work with Amos Tversky is the subject of Michael Lewis's The Undoing Project: A Friendship That Changed Our Minds In his mega bestseller, Thinking, Fast and Slow, Daniel Kahneman, the renowned psychologist and winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics, takes us on a groundbreaking tour of the mind and explains the two systems that drive the way we think. System 1 is fast, intuitive, and emotional; System 2 is slower, more deliberative, and more logical. The impact of overconfidence on corporate strategies, the difficulties of predicting what will make us happy in the future, the profound effect of cognitive biases on everything from playing the stock market to planning our next vacation—each of these can be understood only by knowing how the two systems shape our judgments and decisions. Engaging the reader in a lively conversation about how we think, Kahneman reveals where we can and cannot trust our intuitions and how we can tap into the benefits of slow thinking. He offers practical and enlightening insights into how choices are made in both our business and our personal lives—and how we can use different techniques to guard against the mental glitches that often get us into trouble. Winner of the National Academy of Sciences Best Book Award and the Los Angeles Times Book Prize and selected by The New York Times Book Review as one of the ten best books of 2011, Thinking, Fast and Slow is destined to be a classic.


The Origin of the Idea of Chance in Children

The Origin of the Idea of Chance in Children

Author: Jean Piaget

Publisher: Psychology Press

Published: 2014-08-01

Total Pages: 270

ISBN-13: 1317661990

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Although originally published in France in 1951 this English translation was not published until 1975. The book supplements the authors’ previous publications on the development of thought in the child and is the result of two preoccupations: how thought that is in the process of formation acts to assimilate those aspects of experience that cannot be assimilated deductively – for example, the randomly mixed; and the necessity of discovering how the mental processes work in the totality of spontaneous and experimental searchings that make up what is called the problem of ‘induction’. Induction is a sifting of our experiences to determine what depends on regularity, what on law, and what on chance. The authors examine the formation of the physical aspects of the notion of chance; they study groups of random subjects and of ‘special’ subjects; and they analyse the development of combining operations which contributes to determining the relationship between chance, probability, and the operating mechanisms of the mind.


Book Synopsis The Origin of the Idea of Chance in Children by : Jean Piaget

Download or read book The Origin of the Idea of Chance in Children written by Jean Piaget and published by Psychology Press. This book was released on 2014-08-01 with total page 270 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Although originally published in France in 1951 this English translation was not published until 1975. The book supplements the authors’ previous publications on the development of thought in the child and is the result of two preoccupations: how thought that is in the process of formation acts to assimilate those aspects of experience that cannot be assimilated deductively – for example, the randomly mixed; and the necessity of discovering how the mental processes work in the totality of spontaneous and experimental searchings that make up what is called the problem of ‘induction’. Induction is a sifting of our experiences to determine what depends on regularity, what on law, and what on chance. The authors examine the formation of the physical aspects of the notion of chance; they study groups of random subjects and of ‘special’ subjects; and they analyse the development of combining operations which contributes to determining the relationship between chance, probability, and the operating mechanisms of the mind.