Community perceptions of the social and economic impacts of COVID-19 in Myanmar: Insights from a National COVID-19 Community Survey (NCCS) - June and July 2020

Community perceptions of the social and economic impacts of COVID-19 in Myanmar: Insights from a National COVID-19 Community Survey (NCCS) - June and July 2020

Author: Lambrecht, Isabel

Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst

Published: 2020-09-15

Total Pages: 17

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Myanmar has been fortunate in thus far having one of the lowest caseloads of COVID-19 per population globally, with under 400 confirmed cases as of early August. However, as a developing economy still beset by high rates of poverty and vulnerability, Myanmar is highly susceptible to the economic and social disruptions stemming from COVID-19. These disruptions began with the closure of the Chinese border and the cessation of agricultural exports in late January, followed in February and March by further disruptions to trade, tourism, manufacturing, and remittances. However, an economic simulation analysis by Diao et al. (2020) suggests that the most severe economic impacts of COVID-19 stemmed from the temporary lockdown policies imposed in late March, which – though necessary to prevent the further spread of the virus – led to significant disruptions throughout the economy, including the agri-food sector and the rural economy. Phone survey evidence on agricultural and industrial value chains demonstrates that economic disruptions related to COVID-19 are pervasive and significant (Fang et al, 2020; Goeb, Boughton, and Maredia 2020; Goeb et al. 2020, Takeshima, Win, and Masias 2020a, 2020b). In aggregate, economic simulations predict a modest contraction in Myanmar’s gross domestic product in 2020 (compared to rapid growth forecasted in the absence of COVID-19), but a more significant reduction in household incomes at around 12 percent on average.


Book Synopsis Community perceptions of the social and economic impacts of COVID-19 in Myanmar: Insights from a National COVID-19 Community Survey (NCCS) - June and July 2020 by : Lambrecht, Isabel

Download or read book Community perceptions of the social and economic impacts of COVID-19 in Myanmar: Insights from a National COVID-19 Community Survey (NCCS) - June and July 2020 written by Lambrecht, Isabel and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2020-09-15 with total page 17 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Myanmar has been fortunate in thus far having one of the lowest caseloads of COVID-19 per population globally, with under 400 confirmed cases as of early August. However, as a developing economy still beset by high rates of poverty and vulnerability, Myanmar is highly susceptible to the economic and social disruptions stemming from COVID-19. These disruptions began with the closure of the Chinese border and the cessation of agricultural exports in late January, followed in February and March by further disruptions to trade, tourism, manufacturing, and remittances. However, an economic simulation analysis by Diao et al. (2020) suggests that the most severe economic impacts of COVID-19 stemmed from the temporary lockdown policies imposed in late March, which – though necessary to prevent the further spread of the virus – led to significant disruptions throughout the economy, including the agri-food sector and the rural economy. Phone survey evidence on agricultural and industrial value chains demonstrates that economic disruptions related to COVID-19 are pervasive and significant (Fang et al, 2020; Goeb, Boughton, and Maredia 2020; Goeb et al. 2020, Takeshima, Win, and Masias 2020a, 2020b). In aggregate, economic simulations predict a modest contraction in Myanmar’s gross domestic product in 2020 (compared to rapid growth forecasted in the absence of COVID-19), but a more significant reduction in household incomes at around 12 percent on average.

Community perceptions of the economic impacts of Myanmar’s health and political crises: Insights from the National COVID-19 Community Survey – September 2021

Community perceptions of the economic impacts of Myanmar’s health and political crises: Insights from the National COVID-19 Community Survey – September 2021

Author: Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA)

Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst

Published: 2021-12-07

Total Pages: 7

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Key findings ▪ Ninety-two percent of urban communities and 90 percent of rural communities experienced a decline in income of at least 20 percent compared to a year before due to lower income from both non-farm employment and crop farming. ▪ Compared to data collected in 2020 survey rounds, we see a shift towards reduction in food expenditures and selling agricultural and non-agricultural assets in 2021. Fifty-four percent of communities reduced food expenditure to cope with declining income in September 2021, compared to 17 percent in September 2020. ▪ Twenty-seven percent of communities experienced closed banks and 12 percent of communities reported cash shortage at their local ATMs.


Book Synopsis Community perceptions of the economic impacts of Myanmar’s health and political crises: Insights from the National COVID-19 Community Survey – September 2021 by : Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA)

Download or read book Community perceptions of the economic impacts of Myanmar’s health and political crises: Insights from the National COVID-19 Community Survey – September 2021 written by Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA) and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2021-12-07 with total page 7 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Key findings ▪ Ninety-two percent of urban communities and 90 percent of rural communities experienced a decline in income of at least 20 percent compared to a year before due to lower income from both non-farm employment and crop farming. ▪ Compared to data collected in 2020 survey rounds, we see a shift towards reduction in food expenditures and selling agricultural and non-agricultural assets in 2021. Fifty-four percent of communities reduced food expenditure to cope with declining income in September 2021, compared to 17 percent in September 2020. ▪ Twenty-seven percent of communities experienced closed banks and 12 percent of communities reported cash shortage at their local ATMs.

Community perceptions of changes in rural livelihoods since onset of COVID-19 in Myanmar: Insights from Round 7 of the National COVID-19 Community Survey (NCCS) – May 2021

Community perceptions of changes in rural livelihoods since onset of COVID-19 in Myanmar: Insights from Round 7 of the National COVID-19 Community Survey (NCCS) – May 2021

Author: Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA)

Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst

Published: 2021-06-28

Total Pages: 7

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COVID-19 prevention measures are at their lowest levels since June 2020. However, several restrictions were recently implemented to curtail political unrest that are likely to also slow the spread of the virus. Communities have experienced further reductions in employment opportunities. The estimated share of adults who are unemployed is at its highest level since June 2020. In May 2021, respondents estimated that nearly half of adults in urban communities and 37 percent of adults in rural communities were unemployed in the past month. Agricultural production thus far appears robust but has suffered from poor weather conditions, whereas crop sales are affected by low crop prices and mobility restrictions. The share of households receiving remittances is estimated to be only half of those receiving remittances at the end of 2020. Whereas the end of the year is traditionally a period where more remittances are received, the recent decline is likely also related to challenges in the financial sector and to reduction in domestic employment, especially in urban areas. Financial services are disrupted in two-thirds of the communities. These disruptions include bank closures (in 58 percent of communities), challenges in meeting loan officers (19 percent), and shortages of money in ATMs (7 percent). There is a stark increase in the share of households who urgently need assistance. Community respondents estimate that in May 2021 one-third of households on average are in urgent need of assistance, which is twice as high as the share estimated in July 2020. Coping mechanisms have changed since mid-2020 with communities no longer receiving cash-based assistance. Households are relying less on credit and loans. Instead, they are increasingly reducing both food and non-food expenditures and selling agricultural and non-agricultural assets.


Book Synopsis Community perceptions of changes in rural livelihoods since onset of COVID-19 in Myanmar: Insights from Round 7 of the National COVID-19 Community Survey (NCCS) – May 2021 by : Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA)

Download or read book Community perceptions of changes in rural livelihoods since onset of COVID-19 in Myanmar: Insights from Round 7 of the National COVID-19 Community Survey (NCCS) – May 2021 written by Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA) and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2021-06-28 with total page 7 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: COVID-19 prevention measures are at their lowest levels since June 2020. However, several restrictions were recently implemented to curtail political unrest that are likely to also slow the spread of the virus. Communities have experienced further reductions in employment opportunities. The estimated share of adults who are unemployed is at its highest level since June 2020. In May 2021, respondents estimated that nearly half of adults in urban communities and 37 percent of adults in rural communities were unemployed in the past month. Agricultural production thus far appears robust but has suffered from poor weather conditions, whereas crop sales are affected by low crop prices and mobility restrictions. The share of households receiving remittances is estimated to be only half of those receiving remittances at the end of 2020. Whereas the end of the year is traditionally a period where more remittances are received, the recent decline is likely also related to challenges in the financial sector and to reduction in domestic employment, especially in urban areas. Financial services are disrupted in two-thirds of the communities. These disruptions include bank closures (in 58 percent of communities), challenges in meeting loan officers (19 percent), and shortages of money in ATMs (7 percent). There is a stark increase in the share of households who urgently need assistance. Community respondents estimate that in May 2021 one-third of households on average are in urgent need of assistance, which is twice as high as the share estimated in July 2020. Coping mechanisms have changed since mid-2020 with communities no longer receiving cash-based assistance. Households are relying less on credit and loans. Instead, they are increasingly reducing both food and non-food expenditures and selling agricultural and non-agricultural assets.

Urban food prices under lockdown: Evidence from Myanmar’s traditional food retail sector during COVID-19

Urban food prices under lockdown: Evidence from Myanmar’s traditional food retail sector during COVID-19

Author: Goeb, Joseph

Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst

Published: 2021-05-27

Total Pages: 23

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Many governments imposed stringent lockdowns during the COVID-19 pandemic as a public health measure to suppress the spread of the disease. With consumer incomes already depressed, the potential impacts of these measures on urban food prices are of particular concern. This working paper examines the changes in Myanmar’s urban food prices during lockdown using detailed food price data collected from a panel of phone surveys conducted in August and September 2020 of 431 family-owned retail shops in Myanmar’s two largest cities, Yangon and Mandalay. We find that the supply side of Myanmar’s food retail sector was largely resilient to the shocks and lockdowns throughout the first six months of the COVID-19 pandemic. Estimates from a fixed effects differencein-differences model reveal that food prices were 3 percent higher in townships under lockdown compared to those not under lockdown, a statistically significant but modest effect. Lockdowns had smaller effects on prices for highly processed food items sourced directly from companies, but larger effects on prices for raw or lightly processed commodities sourced through wholesale markets, which comprise a larger share of urban consumer’s diets. Retailer margins did not change significantly under lockdown restrictions, suggesting no evidence of price gouging. Overall, our findings of a modest impact of the lockdown on urban food prices underscore the importance of keeping the food supply chain–including wholesale markets and retail shops–functioning as completely and as safely as possible during times of crisis, as was mostly the case early in the crisis for the two cities in this study.


Book Synopsis Urban food prices under lockdown: Evidence from Myanmar’s traditional food retail sector during COVID-19 by : Goeb, Joseph

Download or read book Urban food prices under lockdown: Evidence from Myanmar’s traditional food retail sector during COVID-19 written by Goeb, Joseph and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2021-05-27 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Many governments imposed stringent lockdowns during the COVID-19 pandemic as a public health measure to suppress the spread of the disease. With consumer incomes already depressed, the potential impacts of these measures on urban food prices are of particular concern. This working paper examines the changes in Myanmar’s urban food prices during lockdown using detailed food price data collected from a panel of phone surveys conducted in August and September 2020 of 431 family-owned retail shops in Myanmar’s two largest cities, Yangon and Mandalay. We find that the supply side of Myanmar’s food retail sector was largely resilient to the shocks and lockdowns throughout the first six months of the COVID-19 pandemic. Estimates from a fixed effects differencein-differences model reveal that food prices were 3 percent higher in townships under lockdown compared to those not under lockdown, a statistically significant but modest effect. Lockdowns had smaller effects on prices for highly processed food items sourced directly from companies, but larger effects on prices for raw or lightly processed commodities sourced through wholesale markets, which comprise a larger share of urban consumer’s diets. Retailer margins did not change significantly under lockdown restrictions, suggesting no evidence of price gouging. Overall, our findings of a modest impact of the lockdown on urban food prices underscore the importance of keeping the food supply chain–including wholesale markets and retail shops–functioning as completely and as safely as possible during times of crisis, as was mostly the case early in the crisis for the two cities in this study.

Community perceptions of the agricultural impacts of Myanmar’s health and political crises: Insights from the National COVID 19 Community Survey – September 2021

Community perceptions of the agricultural impacts of Myanmar’s health and political crises: Insights from the National COVID 19 Community Survey – September 2021

Author: Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA)

Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst

Published: 2021-11-04

Total Pages: 6

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Key findings Forty-two percent of farming communities experienced lower agricultural production than normal in the past 12 months, mainly due to drought and pests. Forty-four percent of farming communities reported greater difficulties in selling agricultural products than usual. Low crop price was the most frequently reported disruption. There are pressing concerns for the upcoming monsoon season harvest. Inorganic fertilizer prices are skyrocketing–compound fertilizer prices increased 56 percent in September 2021 compared to September 2020 while urea prices increased 72 percent compared to last year. About one-third of farming communities hired fewer agricultural wage workers this year compared to last year, with 46 percent reporting that this was mainly due to financial problems. For the current monsoon season, 45 percent of farming communities expect overall agricultural production will be lower than that of last year. Recommended actions Implement measures such as input subsidies, vouchers, or agricultural grants to limit the impact of the price increases of fertilizers and other inputs on agricultural production. As farming communities risk falling into vicious cycles of income loss, financial support is urgently needed to avoid long-lasting impacts of the crises on the agricultural performance of affected communities. Social protection is urgently needed in rural areas, including food/cash for work schemes to offset lower demand for agricultural labor.


Book Synopsis Community perceptions of the agricultural impacts of Myanmar’s health and political crises: Insights from the National COVID 19 Community Survey – September 2021 by : Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA)

Download or read book Community perceptions of the agricultural impacts of Myanmar’s health and political crises: Insights from the National COVID 19 Community Survey – September 2021 written by Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA) and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2021-11-04 with total page 6 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Key findings Forty-two percent of farming communities experienced lower agricultural production than normal in the past 12 months, mainly due to drought and pests. Forty-four percent of farming communities reported greater difficulties in selling agricultural products than usual. Low crop price was the most frequently reported disruption. There are pressing concerns for the upcoming monsoon season harvest. Inorganic fertilizer prices are skyrocketing–compound fertilizer prices increased 56 percent in September 2021 compared to September 2020 while urea prices increased 72 percent compared to last year. About one-third of farming communities hired fewer agricultural wage workers this year compared to last year, with 46 percent reporting that this was mainly due to financial problems. For the current monsoon season, 45 percent of farming communities expect overall agricultural production will be lower than that of last year. Recommended actions Implement measures such as input subsidies, vouchers, or agricultural grants to limit the impact of the price increases of fertilizers and other inputs on agricultural production. As farming communities risk falling into vicious cycles of income loss, financial support is urgently needed to avoid long-lasting impacts of the crises on the agricultural performance of affected communities. Social protection is urgently needed in rural areas, including food/cash for work schemes to offset lower demand for agricultural labor.

Understanding characteristics, causes, and consequences of migration: Contributions from the CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets

Understanding characteristics, causes, and consequences of migration: Contributions from the CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets

Author: CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions and Markets (PIM)

Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst

Published: 2021-10-01

Total Pages: 16

ISBN-13:

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It is estimated that nearly one in seven people — more than 1 billion in total — are classified as migrants in national statistics. Of these, about 763 million are estimated to be internal migrants; the remaining 281 million are international migrants (International Organization for Migration 2021). Migration is an intrinsic part of the development process, representing one of the greatest opportunities to facilitate economic and social advancement in developing countries. Understanding how different types of individuals and households perceive these opportunities and overcome related constraints, and how these change over time, is of key interest. At the same time, migration presents one of the world’s biggest challenges, requiring adjustments by both sending and hosting communities, and understanding those adjustments is a priority. The CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM) has undertaken more than 40 studies designed to explore the causes and consequences of internal and international migration. In aggregate, the studies help us understand what motivates people to migrate and what factors impinge on their ability to do so. These studies focused on the relationship of migration with rural transformation, gender, youth, climate change, and social protection and cut across the whole PIM research portfolio. This brief synthesizes findings from this research in an attempt to present a more complete picture. While there is a vast literature on migration external to PIM and CGIAR, the results of the PIM investiga­tions constitute valuable inputs into national pol­icies and programs designed to foster economic and social development while maximizing the benefits and reducing the risks of migration.


Book Synopsis Understanding characteristics, causes, and consequences of migration: Contributions from the CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets by : CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions and Markets (PIM)

Download or read book Understanding characteristics, causes, and consequences of migration: Contributions from the CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets written by CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions and Markets (PIM) and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2021-10-01 with total page 16 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It is estimated that nearly one in seven people — more than 1 billion in total — are classified as migrants in national statistics. Of these, about 763 million are estimated to be internal migrants; the remaining 281 million are international migrants (International Organization for Migration 2021). Migration is an intrinsic part of the development process, representing one of the greatest opportunities to facilitate economic and social advancement in developing countries. Understanding how different types of individuals and households perceive these opportunities and overcome related constraints, and how these change over time, is of key interest. At the same time, migration presents one of the world’s biggest challenges, requiring adjustments by both sending and hosting communities, and understanding those adjustments is a priority. The CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM) has undertaken more than 40 studies designed to explore the causes and consequences of internal and international migration. In aggregate, the studies help us understand what motivates people to migrate and what factors impinge on their ability to do so. These studies focused on the relationship of migration with rural transformation, gender, youth, climate change, and social protection and cut across the whole PIM research portfolio. This brief synthesizes findings from this research in an attempt to present a more complete picture. While there is a vast literature on migration external to PIM and CGIAR, the results of the PIM investiga­tions constitute valuable inputs into national pol­icies and programs designed to foster economic and social development while maximizing the benefits and reducing the risks of migration.

Impacts of COVID-19 on Myanmar’s agri-food system: Evidence base and policy implications

Impacts of COVID-19 on Myanmar’s agri-food system: Evidence base and policy implications

Author: Researchers of the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)

Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst

Published: 2020-10-09

Total Pages: 18

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Between April and October 2020, the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and Michigan State University (MSU), with support from the United States Agency of International Development (USAID) and the Livelihoods and Food Security Fund (LIFT), have undertaken analyses of secondary data combined with regular telephone surveys of actors at all stages of Myanmar’s agri-food system in order to better understand the impacts of COVID-19 on the system. These analyses show that the volume of agribusiness has slowed considerably in Myanmar since COVID-19 restrictions were put in place. There is lower demand from farmers for agricultural inputs and mechanization services and lower volumes of produce traded, especially exports to neighboring countries whose borders are closed. All actors in the agri-food system are facing liquidity constraints and experiencing increased difficulties in both borrowing and recovering loans.


Book Synopsis Impacts of COVID-19 on Myanmar’s agri-food system: Evidence base and policy implications by : Researchers of the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)

Download or read book Impacts of COVID-19 on Myanmar’s agri-food system: Evidence base and policy implications written by Researchers of the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2020-10-09 with total page 18 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Between April and October 2020, the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and Michigan State University (MSU), with support from the United States Agency of International Development (USAID) and the Livelihoods and Food Security Fund (LIFT), have undertaken analyses of secondary data combined with regular telephone surveys of actors at all stages of Myanmar’s agri-food system in order to better understand the impacts of COVID-19 on the system. These analyses show that the volume of agribusiness has slowed considerably in Myanmar since COVID-19 restrictions were put in place. There is lower demand from farmers for agricultural inputs and mechanization services and lower volumes of produce traded, especially exports to neighboring countries whose borders are closed. All actors in the agri-food system are facing liquidity constraints and experiencing increased difficulties in both borrowing and recovering loans.

Poverty, food insecurity, and social protection during COVID-19 in Myanmar: Combined evidence from a household telephone survey and micro-simulations

Poverty, food insecurity, and social protection during COVID-19 in Myanmar: Combined evidence from a household telephone survey and micro-simulations

Author: Headey, Derek D.

Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst

Published: 2020-11-10

Total Pages: 13

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This study assesses the welfare impacts of COVID-19 on households in Myanmar by combining recent high-frequency telephone survey evidence for two specific rural and urban geographies with national-level survey-based simulations designed to assess ex-ante impacts on poverty with differing amounts of targeted cash transfers. The first source of evidence – the COVID-19 Rural and Urban Food Security Survey (C19- RUFSS) – consists of four rounds of monthly data collected from a sample of over 2,000 households, all with young children or pregnant mothers, divided evenly between urban and peri-urban Yangon and the rural Dry Zone. This survey sheds light on household incomes prior to COVID-19 (January 2020), incomes and food security status soon after the first COVID-19 wave (June 2020), the gradual economic recovery thereafter (July and August 2020), and the start of the second COVID-19 wave in September and October 2020. This survey gives timely and high-quality evidence on the recent welfare impacts of COVID-19 for two important geographies and for households that are nutritionally highly vulnerable to shocks due to the presence of very young children or pregnant mothers. However, the relatively narrow geographic and demographic focus of this telephone survey and the need for forecasting the poverty impacts of COVID-19 into 2021 prompt us to explore simulationbased evidence derived by applying parameter shocks to household models developed from nationally representative household survey data collected prior to COVID-19, the 2015 Myanmar Poverty and Living Conditions Survey (MPLCS). By realistically simulating the kinds of disruptions imposed on Myanmar’s economy by both international forces, e.g., lower agricultural exports and workers’ remittances, and domestic COVID-19 prevention measures. e.g., stay-at-home orders and temporary business closures, we not only can predict the impacts of COVID-19 on household poverty at the rural, urban, and national levels, but also can assess the further benefits to household welfare of social protection in the form of monthly household cash transfers of different magnitudes. Combined, these two sources of evidence yield insights on both the on-the-ground impacts of COVID-19 in recent months and the potential poverty reduction impacts of social protection measures in the coming year. We conclude the study with a discussion of the policy implications of these findings.


Book Synopsis Poverty, food insecurity, and social protection during COVID-19 in Myanmar: Combined evidence from a household telephone survey and micro-simulations by : Headey, Derek D.

Download or read book Poverty, food insecurity, and social protection during COVID-19 in Myanmar: Combined evidence from a household telephone survey and micro-simulations written by Headey, Derek D. and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2020-11-10 with total page 13 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study assesses the welfare impacts of COVID-19 on households in Myanmar by combining recent high-frequency telephone survey evidence for two specific rural and urban geographies with national-level survey-based simulations designed to assess ex-ante impacts on poverty with differing amounts of targeted cash transfers. The first source of evidence – the COVID-19 Rural and Urban Food Security Survey (C19- RUFSS) – consists of four rounds of monthly data collected from a sample of over 2,000 households, all with young children or pregnant mothers, divided evenly between urban and peri-urban Yangon and the rural Dry Zone. This survey sheds light on household incomes prior to COVID-19 (January 2020), incomes and food security status soon after the first COVID-19 wave (June 2020), the gradual economic recovery thereafter (July and August 2020), and the start of the second COVID-19 wave in September and October 2020. This survey gives timely and high-quality evidence on the recent welfare impacts of COVID-19 for two important geographies and for households that are nutritionally highly vulnerable to shocks due to the presence of very young children or pregnant mothers. However, the relatively narrow geographic and demographic focus of this telephone survey and the need for forecasting the poverty impacts of COVID-19 into 2021 prompt us to explore simulationbased evidence derived by applying parameter shocks to household models developed from nationally representative household survey data collected prior to COVID-19, the 2015 Myanmar Poverty and Living Conditions Survey (MPLCS). By realistically simulating the kinds of disruptions imposed on Myanmar’s economy by both international forces, e.g., lower agricultural exports and workers’ remittances, and domestic COVID-19 prevention measures. e.g., stay-at-home orders and temporary business closures, we not only can predict the impacts of COVID-19 on household poverty at the rural, urban, and national levels, but also can assess the further benefits to household welfare of social protection in the form of monthly household cash transfers of different magnitudes. Combined, these two sources of evidence yield insights on both the on-the-ground impacts of COVID-19 in recent months and the potential poverty reduction impacts of social protection measures in the coming year. We conclude the study with a discussion of the policy implications of these findings.

Agricultural extension in times of crisis and emergent threats: Effectiveness of a fall armyworm information intervention in Myanmar Author

Agricultural extension in times of crisis and emergent threats: Effectiveness of a fall armyworm information intervention in Myanmar Author

Author: Goeb, Joseph

Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst

Published: 2023-07-28

Total Pages: 36

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Agricultural extension can have important impacts on vulnerable populations by increasing food production, which improves both rural incomes and urban food security. Yet, crises induced by violent conflict or disease outbreaks can sever the connections between extension agents and farmers. Understanding how agricultural extension systems can safely and effectively reach farmers in times of crisis could help stabilize agri-food systems in fragile states. In the context of COVID-19, a military coup, and an emergent threat of fall armyworm in Myanmar, this paper uses a randomized controlled trial to test the effectiveness of two cellphone-based extension interventions – a direct-to-farmer and a lead farmer intervention – for fall armyworm control in maize. Despite low compliance, both interventions caused knowledge improvements. However, damage control estimates show that the lead-farmer group used pesticides most effectively. Similar cellphone-based lead-farmer programs could be an effective tool in fragile states and when faced with emergent threats to agriculture.


Book Synopsis Agricultural extension in times of crisis and emergent threats: Effectiveness of a fall armyworm information intervention in Myanmar Author by : Goeb, Joseph

Download or read book Agricultural extension in times of crisis and emergent threats: Effectiveness of a fall armyworm information intervention in Myanmar Author written by Goeb, Joseph and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2023-07-28 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Agricultural extension can have important impacts on vulnerable populations by increasing food production, which improves both rural incomes and urban food security. Yet, crises induced by violent conflict or disease outbreaks can sever the connections between extension agents and farmers. Understanding how agricultural extension systems can safely and effectively reach farmers in times of crisis could help stabilize agri-food systems in fragile states. In the context of COVID-19, a military coup, and an emergent threat of fall armyworm in Myanmar, this paper uses a randomized controlled trial to test the effectiveness of two cellphone-based extension interventions – a direct-to-farmer and a lead farmer intervention – for fall armyworm control in maize. Despite low compliance, both interventions caused knowledge improvements. However, damage control estimates show that the lead-farmer group used pesticides most effectively. Similar cellphone-based lead-farmer programs could be an effective tool in fragile states and when faced with emergent threats to agriculture.

Poverty and food insecurity during COVID-19: Telephone survey evidence from mothers in rural and urban Myanmar

Poverty and food insecurity during COVID-19: Telephone survey evidence from mothers in rural and urban Myanmar

Author: Headey, Derek D.

Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst

Published: 2020-10-07

Total Pages: 28

ISBN-13:

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Myanmar had one of the lowest confirmed COVID-19 caseloads in the world in mid-2020 and was one of the few developing countries not projected to go into economic recession. However, macroeconomic projections are likely to be a poor guide to individual and household welfare in a fast-moving crisis that has involved disruption to an unusually wide range of sectors and livelihoods. To explore the impacts of COVID-19 disruptions on household poverty and coping strategies, as well as maternal food insecurity experiences, this study used a telephone survey conducted in June and July 2020 covering 2,017 mothers of nutritionally vulnerable young children in urban Yangon and rural villages of Myanmar’s Dry Zone. Stratifying results by location, livelihoods, and asset-levels, and using retrospective questions on pre-COVID-19 incomes and various COVID-19 impacts, we find that the vast majority of households have been adversely affected from loss of income and employment. Over three-quarters cite income/job losses as the main impact of COVID-19 – median incomes declined by one third and $1.90/day income-based poverty rose by around 27 percentage points between January and June 2020. Falling into poverty was most strongly associated with loss of employment (including migrant employment), but also with recent childbirth. The poor commonly coped with income losses through taking loans/credit, while better-off households drew down on savings and reduced non-food expenditures. Self-reported food insecurity experiences were much more common in the urban sample than in the rural sample, even though income-based and asset-based poverty were more prevalent in rural areas. In urban areas, around one quarter of respondents were worried about food quantities and quality, and around 10 percent stated that there were times when they had run out of food or gone hungry. Respondents who stated that their household had lost income or experienced food supply problems due to COVID-19 were more likely to report a variety of different food insecurity experiences. These results raise the concern that the welfare impacts of the COVID-19 crisis are much more serious and widespread than macroeconomic projections would suggest. Loss of employment and casual labor are major drivers of increasing poverty. Consequently, economic recovery strategies must emphasize job creation to revitalize damaged livelihoods. However, a strengthened social protection strategy should also be a critical component of economic recovery to prevent adversely affected households from falling into poverty traps and to avert the worst forms of food insecurity and malnutrition, particularly among households with pregnant women and young children. The recent second wave of COVID-19 infections in Myanmar from mid-August onwards makes the expansion of social protection even more imperative.


Book Synopsis Poverty and food insecurity during COVID-19: Telephone survey evidence from mothers in rural and urban Myanmar by : Headey, Derek D.

Download or read book Poverty and food insecurity during COVID-19: Telephone survey evidence from mothers in rural and urban Myanmar written by Headey, Derek D. and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2020-10-07 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Myanmar had one of the lowest confirmed COVID-19 caseloads in the world in mid-2020 and was one of the few developing countries not projected to go into economic recession. However, macroeconomic projections are likely to be a poor guide to individual and household welfare in a fast-moving crisis that has involved disruption to an unusually wide range of sectors and livelihoods. To explore the impacts of COVID-19 disruptions on household poverty and coping strategies, as well as maternal food insecurity experiences, this study used a telephone survey conducted in June and July 2020 covering 2,017 mothers of nutritionally vulnerable young children in urban Yangon and rural villages of Myanmar’s Dry Zone. Stratifying results by location, livelihoods, and asset-levels, and using retrospective questions on pre-COVID-19 incomes and various COVID-19 impacts, we find that the vast majority of households have been adversely affected from loss of income and employment. Over three-quarters cite income/job losses as the main impact of COVID-19 – median incomes declined by one third and $1.90/day income-based poverty rose by around 27 percentage points between January and June 2020. Falling into poverty was most strongly associated with loss of employment (including migrant employment), but also with recent childbirth. The poor commonly coped with income losses through taking loans/credit, while better-off households drew down on savings and reduced non-food expenditures. Self-reported food insecurity experiences were much more common in the urban sample than in the rural sample, even though income-based and asset-based poverty were more prevalent in rural areas. In urban areas, around one quarter of respondents were worried about food quantities and quality, and around 10 percent stated that there were times when they had run out of food or gone hungry. Respondents who stated that their household had lost income or experienced food supply problems due to COVID-19 were more likely to report a variety of different food insecurity experiences. These results raise the concern that the welfare impacts of the COVID-19 crisis are much more serious and widespread than macroeconomic projections would suggest. Loss of employment and casual labor are major drivers of increasing poverty. Consequently, economic recovery strategies must emphasize job creation to revitalize damaged livelihoods. However, a strengthened social protection strategy should also be a critical component of economic recovery to prevent adversely affected households from falling into poverty traps and to avert the worst forms of food insecurity and malnutrition, particularly among households with pregnant women and young children. The recent second wave of COVID-19 infections in Myanmar from mid-August onwards makes the expansion of social protection even more imperative.