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This note summarizes perceptions of COVID-19 impacts and risks from a panel phone survey of rural households in eight districts in rural Malawi. While the results from the first round conducted in August 2020 were reported in a previous brief, this note will focus on the evolution of indicators from round 1 to round 2, conducted in November 2020. The sample comprises 833 households interviewed in both survey rounds. Two additional follow-up survey rounds are planned for 2021. The survey was originally designed to measure the seasonality of labor activities but was adjusted to assess COVID-19 impacts and perceptions in rural Malawi. Though initial concern of the impact of COVID-19 on Malawi was high at the start of the global pandemic, case numbers stayed relatively low through the end of 2020. Seven-day averages of 50-100 cases during the first survey round had dropped to under 5 in the fourth quarter of the year. Our analysis will examine how people’s perceptions evolved during this period of low infections.
Book Synopsis COVID-19 in rural Malawi: Perceived risks and economic impacts round 2 by : Ambler, Kate
Download or read book COVID-19 in rural Malawi: Perceived risks and economic impacts round 2 written by Ambler, Kate and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2021-03-23 with total page 7 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This note summarizes perceptions of COVID-19 impacts and risks from a panel phone survey of rural households in eight districts in rural Malawi. While the results from the first round conducted in August 2020 were reported in a previous brief, this note will focus on the evolution of indicators from round 1 to round 2, conducted in November 2020. The sample comprises 833 households interviewed in both survey rounds. Two additional follow-up survey rounds are planned for 2021. The survey was originally designed to measure the seasonality of labor activities but was adjusted to assess COVID-19 impacts and perceptions in rural Malawi. Though initial concern of the impact of COVID-19 on Malawi was high at the start of the global pandemic, case numbers stayed relatively low through the end of 2020. Seven-day averages of 50-100 cases during the first survey round had dropped to under 5 in the fourth quarter of the year. Our analysis will examine how people’s perceptions evolved during this period of low infections.
Malawi reported its first case of COVID-19 in April and declared a national emergency. Schools, bars and restaurants were closed, international flights suspended, and the economy faced considerable disruptions: quarterly growth projections from July were cut by more than 60% (Saldarriaga Noel et al. 2020). While still concerning, compared to other countries and other parts of the world, the spread of this disease in Malawi has been relatively modest with 5,951 confirmed cases and 184 COVID-19 linked deaths as of November 8, 2020. After accelerating rates of infection in June and July, the rates have decreased over the last two months.1 In response, there has been a partial return to normalcy, marked by easing COVID-19 restrictions and the reopening of schools at the beginning of September, even while the future trajectory of the disease remains unknown.
Book Synopsis COVID-19 in rural Malawi: Perceived risks and economic impacts by : Ambler, Kate
Download or read book COVID-19 in rural Malawi: Perceived risks and economic impacts written by Ambler, Kate and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2020-11-19 with total page 6 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Malawi reported its first case of COVID-19 in April and declared a national emergency. Schools, bars and restaurants were closed, international flights suspended, and the economy faced considerable disruptions: quarterly growth projections from July were cut by more than 60% (Saldarriaga Noel et al. 2020). While still concerning, compared to other countries and other parts of the world, the spread of this disease in Malawi has been relatively modest with 5,951 confirmed cases and 184 COVID-19 linked deaths as of November 8, 2020. After accelerating rates of infection in June and July, the rates have decreased over the last two months.1 In response, there has been a partial return to normalcy, marked by easing COVID-19 restrictions and the reopening of schools at the beginning of September, even while the future trajectory of the disease remains unknown.
This project note discusses findings from a panel phone survey in Malawi in which respondents were asked about their perceptions of the risks and impacts of COVID-19. Previous findings from the first and second rounds of the survey were discussed in two previous project notes. This note focuses on changes in indicators across rounds, using only panel households. The panel comprises households in eight rural districts in Malawi who were interviewed four times between July 2020 and July 2021. This study builds on a survey originally designed to measure seasonal changes in labor activities. However, as the pandemic spread, the survey was modified to include questions about COVID-19’s risks and impacts on their lives.
Book Synopsis COVID-19 in rural Malawi: Perceived risks and economic impacts rounds 1-4 by : Leavens, Laura
Download or read book COVID-19 in rural Malawi: Perceived risks and economic impacts rounds 1-4 written by Leavens, Laura and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2021-12-13 with total page 8 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This project note discusses findings from a panel phone survey in Malawi in which respondents were asked about their perceptions of the risks and impacts of COVID-19. Previous findings from the first and second rounds of the survey were discussed in two previous project notes. This note focuses on changes in indicators across rounds, using only panel households. The panel comprises households in eight rural districts in Malawi who were interviewed four times between July 2020 and July 2021. This study builds on a survey originally designed to measure seasonal changes in labor activities. However, as the pandemic spread, the survey was modified to include questions about COVID-19’s risks and impacts on their lives.
Understanding how the Papua New Guinea (PNG) agricultural economy and associated household consumption is affected by climate, market and other shocks requires attention to linkages and substitution effects across various products and the markets in which they are traded. In this study, we use a multi-market simulation model of the PNG food economy that explicitly includes production, consumption, external trade and prices of key agricultural commodities to quantify the likely impacts of a set of potential shocks on household welfare and food security in PNG. In this study, we use a multi-market simulation model of the PNG food economy that explicitly includes production, consumption, external trade and prices of key agricultural commodities to quantify the likely impacts of a set of potential shocks on household welfare and food security in PNG. We have built the model to be flexible in order to explore different potential scenarios and then identify where and how households are most affected by an unexpected shock. The model is designed using region and country-level data sources that inform the structure of the PNG food economy, allowing for a data-driven evaluation of potential impacts on agricultural production, food prices, and food consumption. Thus, as PNG confronts different unexpected challenges within its agricultural economy, the model presented in this paper can be adapted to evaluate the potential impact and necessary response by geographic region of an unexpected economic shock on the food economy of the country. We present ten simulations modeling the effects of various shocks on PNG’s economy. The first group of scenarios consider the effects of shocks to production of specific agricultural commodities including: 1) a decrease on maize and sorghum output due to Fall Armyworm; 2) reduction in pig production due to a potential outbreak of African Swine Fever; 3) decline in sweet potato production similar to the 2015/16 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate shock; and 4) a decline in poultry production due to COVID-19 restrictions on domestic mobility and trade. A synopsis of this report, which focuses on the COVID-19 related shocks on the PNG economy is also available online (Diao et al., 2020).1 The second group of simulations focus on COVID-19-related changes in international prices, increased marketing costs in international and domestic trade, and reductions in urban incomes. We simulate a 1) 30 percent increase in the price of imported rice, 2) a 30 percent decrease in world prices for major PNG agricultural exports, 3) higher trade transaction costs due to restrictions on the movement of people (traders) and goods given social distancing measures of COVID-19, and 4) potential economic recession causing urban household income to fall by 10 percent. Finally, the last simulation considers the combined effect of all COVID-19 related shocks combining the above scenarios into a single simulation. A key result of the analysis is that urban households, especially the urban poor, are particularly vulnerable to shocks related to the Covid-19 pandemic. Lower economic activity in urban areas (assumed to reduce urban non-agricultural incomes by 10 percent), increases in marketing costs due to domestic trade disruptions, and 30 percent higher imported rice prices combine to lower urban incomes by almost 15 percent for both poor and non-poor urban households. Urban poor households, however, suffer the largest drop in calorie consumption - 19.8 percent, compared to a 15.8 percent decline for urban non-poor households. Rural households are much less affected by the Covid-19 related shocks modeled in these simulations. Rural household incomes, affected mainly by reduced urban demand and market disruptions, fall by only about four percent. Nonetheless, calorie consumption for the rural poor and non-poor falls by 5.5 and 4.2 percent, respectively.
Book Synopsis Effects of COVID-19 and other shocks on Papua New Guinea’s food economy: A multi-market simulation analysis by : Diao, Xinshen
Download or read book Effects of COVID-19 and other shocks on Papua New Guinea’s food economy: A multi-market simulation analysis written by Diao, Xinshen and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2021-02-19 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Understanding how the Papua New Guinea (PNG) agricultural economy and associated household consumption is affected by climate, market and other shocks requires attention to linkages and substitution effects across various products and the markets in which they are traded. In this study, we use a multi-market simulation model of the PNG food economy that explicitly includes production, consumption, external trade and prices of key agricultural commodities to quantify the likely impacts of a set of potential shocks on household welfare and food security in PNG. In this study, we use a multi-market simulation model of the PNG food economy that explicitly includes production, consumption, external trade and prices of key agricultural commodities to quantify the likely impacts of a set of potential shocks on household welfare and food security in PNG. We have built the model to be flexible in order to explore different potential scenarios and then identify where and how households are most affected by an unexpected shock. The model is designed using region and country-level data sources that inform the structure of the PNG food economy, allowing for a data-driven evaluation of potential impacts on agricultural production, food prices, and food consumption. Thus, as PNG confronts different unexpected challenges within its agricultural economy, the model presented in this paper can be adapted to evaluate the potential impact and necessary response by geographic region of an unexpected economic shock on the food economy of the country. We present ten simulations modeling the effects of various shocks on PNG’s economy. The first group of scenarios consider the effects of shocks to production of specific agricultural commodities including: 1) a decrease on maize and sorghum output due to Fall Armyworm; 2) reduction in pig production due to a potential outbreak of African Swine Fever; 3) decline in sweet potato production similar to the 2015/16 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate shock; and 4) a decline in poultry production due to COVID-19 restrictions on domestic mobility and trade. A synopsis of this report, which focuses on the COVID-19 related shocks on the PNG economy is also available online (Diao et al., 2020).1 The second group of simulations focus on COVID-19-related changes in international prices, increased marketing costs in international and domestic trade, and reductions in urban incomes. We simulate a 1) 30 percent increase in the price of imported rice, 2) a 30 percent decrease in world prices for major PNG agricultural exports, 3) higher trade transaction costs due to restrictions on the movement of people (traders) and goods given social distancing measures of COVID-19, and 4) potential economic recession causing urban household income to fall by 10 percent. Finally, the last simulation considers the combined effect of all COVID-19 related shocks combining the above scenarios into a single simulation. A key result of the analysis is that urban households, especially the urban poor, are particularly vulnerable to shocks related to the Covid-19 pandemic. Lower economic activity in urban areas (assumed to reduce urban non-agricultural incomes by 10 percent), increases in marketing costs due to domestic trade disruptions, and 30 percent higher imported rice prices combine to lower urban incomes by almost 15 percent for both poor and non-poor urban households. Urban poor households, however, suffer the largest drop in calorie consumption - 19.8 percent, compared to a 15.8 percent decline for urban non-poor households. Rural households are much less affected by the Covid-19 related shocks modeled in these simulations. Rural household incomes, affected mainly by reduced urban demand and market disruptions, fall by only about four percent. Nonetheless, calorie consumption for the rural poor and non-poor falls by 5.5 and 4.2 percent, respectively.
The coronavirus pandemic has upended local, national, and global food systems, and put the Sustainable Development Goals further out of reach. But lessons from the world’s response to the pandemic can help address future shocks and contribute to food system change. In the 2021 Global Food Policy Report, IFPRI researchers and other food policy experts explore the impacts of the pandemic and government policy responses, particularly for the poor and disadvantaged, and consider what this means for transforming our food systems to be healthy, resilient, efficient, sustainable, and inclusive. Chapters in the report look at balancing health and economic policies, promoting healthy diets and nutrition, strengthening social protection policies and inclusion, integrating natural resource protection into food sector policies, and enhancing the contribution of the private sector. Regional sections look at the diverse experiences around the world, and a special section on finance looks at innovative ways of funding food system transformation. Critical questions addressed include: - Who felt the greatest impact from falling incomes and food system disruptions caused by the pandemic? - How can countries find an effective balance among health, economic, and social policies in the face of crisis? - How did lockdowns affect diet quality and quantity in rural and urban areas? - Do national social protection systems such as cash transfers have the capacity to protect poor and vulnerable groups in a global crisis? - Can better integration of agricultural and ecosystem polices help prevent the next pandemic? - How did companies accelerate ongoing trends in digitalization and integration to keep food supply chains moving? - What different challenges did the pandemic spark in Asia, Africa, and Latin America and how did these regions respond?
Book Synopsis 2021 Global food policy report: Transforming food systems after COVID-19: Synopsis by : International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
Download or read book 2021 Global food policy report: Transforming food systems after COVID-19: Synopsis written by International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2021-04-13 with total page 8 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The coronavirus pandemic has upended local, national, and global food systems, and put the Sustainable Development Goals further out of reach. But lessons from the world’s response to the pandemic can help address future shocks and contribute to food system change. In the 2021 Global Food Policy Report, IFPRI researchers and other food policy experts explore the impacts of the pandemic and government policy responses, particularly for the poor and disadvantaged, and consider what this means for transforming our food systems to be healthy, resilient, efficient, sustainable, and inclusive. Chapters in the report look at balancing health and economic policies, promoting healthy diets and nutrition, strengthening social protection policies and inclusion, integrating natural resource protection into food sector policies, and enhancing the contribution of the private sector. Regional sections look at the diverse experiences around the world, and a special section on finance looks at innovative ways of funding food system transformation. Critical questions addressed include: - Who felt the greatest impact from falling incomes and food system disruptions caused by the pandemic? - How can countries find an effective balance among health, economic, and social policies in the face of crisis? - How did lockdowns affect diet quality and quantity in rural and urban areas? - Do national social protection systems such as cash transfers have the capacity to protect poor and vulnerable groups in a global crisis? - Can better integration of agricultural and ecosystem polices help prevent the next pandemic? - How did companies accelerate ongoing trends in digitalization and integration to keep food supply chains moving? - What different challenges did the pandemic spark in Asia, Africa, and Latin America and how did these regions respond?
In this paper we focus specifically on differences in the welfare impacts of COVID-19 on rural livelihoods between countries using nationally representative data that we disaggregate by food system typology. This typology captures key structural differences in the organization of rural economies and the vulnerabilities to rural livelihoods due to the COVID-19 pandemic and associated lockdown measures. In particular, we draw on household survey data collected from 54 countries through the World Bank’s COVID-19 High Frequency Monitoring Dashboard to generate descriptive data on COVID-19 impacts in rural areas across three dimensions: income, coping strategies and food security. These descriptive data are disaggregated into four food system categories and contextualized and validated through a systematic review of rigorous, survey-based studies of COVID-19 impacts in rural areas. Through this analysis, the report provides insights on how COVID-19 is influencing rural livelihoods, how its impacts vary between countries and food system typologies, and, ultimately, how policymakers and the international community need to respond in order to foster an inclusive and sustainable recovery.
Book Synopsis Assessing the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the livelihoods of rural people by : Sitko, N., Knowles M., Viberti, F., Bordi, D.
Download or read book Assessing the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the livelihoods of rural people written by Sitko, N., Knowles M., Viberti, F., Bordi, D. and published by Food & Agriculture Org.. This book was released on 2022-03-14 with total page 69 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper we focus specifically on differences in the welfare impacts of COVID-19 on rural livelihoods between countries using nationally representative data that we disaggregate by food system typology. This typology captures key structural differences in the organization of rural economies and the vulnerabilities to rural livelihoods due to the COVID-19 pandemic and associated lockdown measures. In particular, we draw on household survey data collected from 54 countries through the World Bank’s COVID-19 High Frequency Monitoring Dashboard to generate descriptive data on COVID-19 impacts in rural areas across three dimensions: income, coping strategies and food security. These descriptive data are disaggregated into four food system categories and contextualized and validated through a systematic review of rigorous, survey-based studies of COVID-19 impacts in rural areas. Through this analysis, the report provides insights on how COVID-19 is influencing rural livelihoods, how its impacts vary between countries and food system typologies, and, ultimately, how policymakers and the international community need to respond in order to foster an inclusive and sustainable recovery.
"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.
Book Synopsis Global Trends 2040 by : National Intelligence Council
Download or read book Global Trends 2040 written by National Intelligence Council and published by Cosimo Reports. This book was released on 2021-03 with total page 158 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.
Book Synopsis Socio-economic and cultural impacts of COVID-19 on Africa by : UNESCO
Download or read book Socio-economic and cultural impacts of COVID-19 on Africa written by UNESCO and published by UNESCO Publishing. This book was released on 2020-07-21 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
In developing countries macroeconomic volatility is common, and severe negative economic shocks can substantially increase poverty and food insecurity. Less well understood are the implications of these contractions for child acute malnutrition (wasting), a major risk factor for under-5 mortality. This study explores the nutritional impacts of growth shocks over 1990-2018 by linking wasting outcomes collected for 1.256 million children from 52 countries to lagged annual changes in national income. Difference-in-difference estimates suggest that a 10% annual decline in national income increases moderate/severe (WHZ<-2) and severe wasting (WHZ<-3) by 14 and 22 percent. An exploration of possible mechanisms suggests negative economic shocks increase risks of diarrhea, fever, and maternal underweight prevalence, and reduce child dietary diversity. Applying these results to the predicted economic impacts of COVID-19 suggests that millions of pre-school children are at increased risk of wasting and wasting-related morbidity and mortality unless urgent preventative action is taken.
Book Synopsis Economic shocks and child wasting by : Headey, Derek D.
Download or read book Economic shocks and child wasting written by Headey, Derek D. and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In developing countries macroeconomic volatility is common, and severe negative economic shocks can substantially increase poverty and food insecurity. Less well understood are the implications of these contractions for child acute malnutrition (wasting), a major risk factor for under-5 mortality. This study explores the nutritional impacts of growth shocks over 1990-2018 by linking wasting outcomes collected for 1.256 million children from 52 countries to lagged annual changes in national income. Difference-in-difference estimates suggest that a 10% annual decline in national income increases moderate/severe (WHZ<-2) and severe wasting (WHZ<-3) by 14 and 22 percent. An exploration of possible mechanisms suggests negative economic shocks increase risks of diarrhea, fever, and maternal underweight prevalence, and reduce child dietary diversity. Applying these results to the predicted economic impacts of COVID-19 suggests that millions of pre-school children are at increased risk of wasting and wasting-related morbidity and mortality unless urgent preventative action is taken.
This work combines research and empirical evidence on the economic costs of disasters with theoretical approaches. It provides new insights on how to assess and manage the costs and impacts of disaster prevention, mitigation, recovery and adaption, and much more.
Book Synopsis The Economic Impacts of Natural Disasters by : Debarati Guha-Sapir
Download or read book The Economic Impacts of Natural Disasters written by Debarati Guha-Sapir and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2013-05-23 with total page 341 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This work combines research and empirical evidence on the economic costs of disasters with theoretical approaches. It provides new insights on how to assess and manage the costs and impacts of disaster prevention, mitigation, recovery and adaption, and much more.
