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Defense planning faces significant uncertainties. This report applies robust decision making (RDM) to the air-delivered munitions mix challenge. RDM is quantitative, decision support methodology designed to inform decisions under conditions of deep uncertainty and complexity. This proof-of-concept demonstration suggests that RDM could help defense planners make plans more robust to a wide range of hard-to-predict futures.
Book Synopsis Defense Resource Planning Under Uncertainty by : Robert J. Lempert
Download or read book Defense Resource Planning Under Uncertainty written by Robert J. Lempert and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2016-01-29 with total page 108 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Defense planning faces significant uncertainties. This report applies robust decision making (RDM) to the air-delivered munitions mix challenge. RDM is quantitative, decision support methodology designed to inform decisions under conditions of deep uncertainty and complexity. This proof-of-concept demonstration suggests that RDM could help defense planners make plans more robust to a wide range of hard-to-predict futures.
Strategy and Defence Planning: Meeting the Challenge of Uncertainty explores and examines why and how security communities prepare purposefully for their future defence. Professor Gray argues that our understanding of human nature, of politics, and of strategic history, does allow us to make prudent choices in defence planning.
Book Synopsis Strategy and Defence Planning by : Colin S. Gray
Download or read book Strategy and Defence Planning written by Colin S. Gray and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 2014 with total page 238 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Strategy and Defence Planning: Meeting the Challenge of Uncertainty explores and examines why and how security communities prepare purposefully for their future defence. Professor Gray argues that our understanding of human nature, of politics, and of strategic history, does allow us to make prudent choices in defence planning.
It is still easy to underestimate how much the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War?--and then the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001?--transformed the task of American foreign and defense policymaking. In place of predictability (if a sometimes terrifying predictability), the world is now very unpredictable. In place of a single overriding threat and benchmark by which all else could be measured, a number of possible threats have arisen, not all of them states. In place of force-on-force engagements, U.S. defense planners have to assume "asymmetric" threats?--ways not to defeat U.S. power but to render it irrelevant. This book frames the challenges for defense policy that the transformed world engenders, and it sketches new tools for dealing with those challenges?--from new techniques in modeling and gaming, to planning based on capabilities rather than threats, to personnel planning and making use of "best practices" from the private sector.
Book Synopsis New Challenges, New Tools for Defense Decisionmaking by : Stuart E. Johnson
Download or read book New Challenges, New Tools for Defense Decisionmaking written by Stuart E. Johnson and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2003-03-31 with total page 415 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It is still easy to underestimate how much the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War?--and then the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001?--transformed the task of American foreign and defense policymaking. In place of predictability (if a sometimes terrifying predictability), the world is now very unpredictable. In place of a single overriding threat and benchmark by which all else could be measured, a number of possible threats have arisen, not all of them states. In place of force-on-force engagements, U.S. defense planners have to assume "asymmetric" threats?--ways not to defeat U.S. power but to render it irrelevant. This book frames the challenges for defense policy that the transformed world engenders, and it sketches new tools for dealing with those challenges?--from new techniques in modeling and gaming, to planning based on capabilities rather than threats, to personnel planning and making use of "best practices" from the private sector.
Current defense planning methods do not ensure a direct connection between national security objectives and military tasks. The Strategy-to-Task method provides a framework for solving this deficiency by establishing a hierarchy, starting from national objectives, through military objectives and missions to military tasks. Below these tasks, performance standards can be used for estimating the utility of a given task. This hierarchical approach helps decision-makers understand these important linkages. It could also serve as a framework for prioritizing the different tasks and contribute to better resource allocation, by analyzing different alternatives in a multi-attribute space. There are two decision-supporting methods for setting up priorities within this hierarchy of multi-attribute objectives. The first one, Multi-Attribute Utility Function Analysis, is a useful method for cases when performance standards can easily be established. This method could be used under both certainty and uncertainty and can address dependence and independence among the attributes or their utilities. The second method, the Analytic Hierarchy Process, could be used in cases when performance standards are difficult to establish as is typically the case in the higher levels of the hierarchy. The hierarchical approach and the two methods are illustrated through the case of Hungary's participation in NATO peace-operations.
Book Synopsis Strategy-to-Task Resource Management by : Tamas S. Gaspar
Download or read book Strategy-to-Task Resource Management written by Tamas S. Gaspar and published by . This book was released on 1999-06-01 with total page 99 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Current defense planning methods do not ensure a direct connection between national security objectives and military tasks. The Strategy-to-Task method provides a framework for solving this deficiency by establishing a hierarchy, starting from national objectives, through military objectives and missions to military tasks. Below these tasks, performance standards can be used for estimating the utility of a given task. This hierarchical approach helps decision-makers understand these important linkages. It could also serve as a framework for prioritizing the different tasks and contribute to better resource allocation, by analyzing different alternatives in a multi-attribute space. There are two decision-supporting methods for setting up priorities within this hierarchy of multi-attribute objectives. The first one, Multi-Attribute Utility Function Analysis, is a useful method for cases when performance standards can easily be established. This method could be used under both certainty and uncertainty and can address dependence and independence among the attributes or their utilities. The second method, the Analytic Hierarchy Process, could be used in cases when performance standards are difficult to establish as is typically the case in the higher levels of the hierarchy. The hierarchical approach and the two methods are illustrated through the case of Hungary's participation in NATO peace-operations.
Book Synopsis Defense Resource Management by : Walter R. Milliken
Download or read book Defense Resource Management written by Walter R. Milliken and published by . This book was released on 1979 with total page 70 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
How can countries decide what kind of military forces they need, if threats are uncertain and history is full of strategic surprises? This is a question that is more pertinent than ever, as countries across the Asia-Pacific are faced with the military and economic rise of China. Uncertainty is inherent in defence planning, but different types of uncertainty mean that countries need to approach decisions about military force structure in different ways. This book examines four different basic frameworks for defence planning, and demonstrates how states can make decisions coherently about the structure and posture of their defence forces despite strategic uncertainty. It draws on case studies from the United States, Australian and New Zealand, each of which developed key concepts for their particular circumstances and risk perception in Asia. Success as well as failure in developing coherent defence planning frameworks holds lessons for the United States and other countries as they consider how best to structure their military forces for the uncertain challenges of the future.
Book Synopsis Defence Planning and Uncertainty by : Stephan Frühling
Download or read book Defence Planning and Uncertainty written by Stephan Frühling and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2014-04-24 with total page 269 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How can countries decide what kind of military forces they need, if threats are uncertain and history is full of strategic surprises? This is a question that is more pertinent than ever, as countries across the Asia-Pacific are faced with the military and economic rise of China. Uncertainty is inherent in defence planning, but different types of uncertainty mean that countries need to approach decisions about military force structure in different ways. This book examines four different basic frameworks for defence planning, and demonstrates how states can make decisions coherently about the structure and posture of their defence forces despite strategic uncertainty. It draws on case studies from the United States, Australian and New Zealand, each of which developed key concepts for their particular circumstances and risk perception in Asia. Success as well as failure in developing coherent defence planning frameworks holds lessons for the United States and other countries as they consider how best to structure their military forces for the uncertain challenges of the future.
An examination of the present and future usefulness of systems analysis as an approach to policy planning, particularly in matters of national security. The study considers the basic concepts of systems analysis, including the problem of selecting operationally useful objectives, measures of their attainment, and criteria; the treatment of uncertainty; the place and function of technological considerations in planning or evaluating advanced systems; the character and role of resource and cost-sensitivity analysis; and the nature and value of models in systems analysis, especially the models provided by mathematical game theory, simulation, scenario writing, political analysis, and gaming. Earlier conclusions are reexamined in the light of the successes and failures of systems analysis during the past decade. Newer methods of analysis are discussed.
Book Synopsis Systems Analysis and Policy Planning by : Edward S. Quade
Download or read book Systems Analysis and Policy Planning written by Edward S. Quade and published by New York : American Elsevier Publishing Company. This book was released on 1968 with total page 488 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An examination of the present and future usefulness of systems analysis as an approach to policy planning, particularly in matters of national security. The study considers the basic concepts of systems analysis, including the problem of selecting operationally useful objectives, measures of their attainment, and criteria; the treatment of uncertainty; the place and function of technological considerations in planning or evaluating advanced systems; the character and role of resource and cost-sensitivity analysis; and the nature and value of models in systems analysis, especially the models provided by mathematical game theory, simulation, scenario writing, political analysis, and gaming. Earlier conclusions are reexamined in the light of the successes and failures of systems analysis during the past decade. Newer methods of analysis are discussed.
Superior defense plans fuse political, economic, military, technological, and sociological power in ways that cover state interests, while conserving resources to the greatest prudent extent. Poor products can increase costs without reducing risks, because forces and funds that support slipshod schemes often fail to furnish security. This critical appraisal of the U.5. defense planning system seeks to serve a five-fold purpose: set assessment standards, appraise U.S. planning in principle, appraise U.5. planning in practice, identify U.S. planning problems and present optional courses of corrective action. The study shows how domestic and foreign policy inputs from the White House, National 5ecurity Council, and State Department affect defense planning.
Book Synopsis U.S. Defense Planning by : John M Collins
Download or read book U.S. Defense Planning written by John M Collins and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2019-07-25 with total page 336 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Superior defense plans fuse political, economic, military, technological, and sociological power in ways that cover state interests, while conserving resources to the greatest prudent extent. Poor products can increase costs without reducing risks, because forces and funds that support slipshod schemes often fail to furnish security. This critical appraisal of the U.5. defense planning system seeks to serve a five-fold purpose: set assessment standards, appraise U.S. planning in principle, appraise U.5. planning in practice, identify U.S. planning problems and present optional courses of corrective action. The study shows how domestic and foreign policy inputs from the White House, National 5ecurity Council, and State Department affect defense planning.
"A first step in dealing with uncertainty is confronting its existence, ubiquity, and magnitude. A second step is dealing with it when informing assessments and decisions. As the Cold War waned, RAND developed new methods that urged sketching the no-surprises future, listing known branch-style uncertainties, and stretching the imagination to envision potential shocks, good or bad (e.g., Soviet Union disintegration or Saddam Hussein's invasion of Kuwait). Major surprises will nonetheless occur, and some of RAND's most important work on uncertainty has to do with coping with surprise developments. RAND's progress in national security uncertainty analysis benefited from a confluence of developments in computer and software technology, theory and practice in strategic planning and decisionmaking, analytic theory and methods, and theory of complex adaptive systems. Work has emphasized facing up to deep uncertainty in many dimensions, performing exploratory analysis of "the possibility space," identifying regions of that space that pose special risks or opportunities, finding options to improve capabilities, and using portfolio analysis to conceive and compare strategic options for economically dealing with the diversity of challenges. A cross-cutting RAND theme is finding flexible, adaptive, and robust (FAR) strategies. Ultimately, different problems call for different approaches to uncertainty. If the theory of planning under uncertainty and preparing to cope with surprise effectively is difficult and complex, this report makes clear that implementing and maintaining corresponding changes is even more difficult and suggests that policymakers to be constantly vigilant in ensuring that related initiatives are not undercut or allowed to wither."--Provided by publisher.
Book Synopsis Lessons from RAND's Work on Planning Under Uncertainty for National Security by : Paul K. Davis
Download or read book Lessons from RAND's Work on Planning Under Uncertainty for National Security written by Paul K. Davis and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2012-08 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "A first step in dealing with uncertainty is confronting its existence, ubiquity, and magnitude. A second step is dealing with it when informing assessments and decisions. As the Cold War waned, RAND developed new methods that urged sketching the no-surprises future, listing known branch-style uncertainties, and stretching the imagination to envision potential shocks, good or bad (e.g., Soviet Union disintegration or Saddam Hussein's invasion of Kuwait). Major surprises will nonetheless occur, and some of RAND's most important work on uncertainty has to do with coping with surprise developments. RAND's progress in national security uncertainty analysis benefited from a confluence of developments in computer and software technology, theory and practice in strategic planning and decisionmaking, analytic theory and methods, and theory of complex adaptive systems. Work has emphasized facing up to deep uncertainty in many dimensions, performing exploratory analysis of "the possibility space," identifying regions of that space that pose special risks or opportunities, finding options to improve capabilities, and using portfolio analysis to conceive and compare strategic options for economically dealing with the diversity of challenges. A cross-cutting RAND theme is finding flexible, adaptive, and robust (FAR) strategies. Ultimately, different problems call for different approaches to uncertainty. If the theory of planning under uncertainty and preparing to cope with surprise effectively is difficult and complex, this report makes clear that implementing and maintaining corresponding changes is even more difficult and suggests that policymakers to be constantly vigilant in ensuring that related initiatives are not undercut or allowed to wither."--Provided by publisher.
This definitive study on defense planning in the new era covers alternative strategies and structures for post-Cold War defense planning and planning under uncertainty.
Book Synopsis New Challenges for Defense Planning by : Paul K. Davis
Download or read book New Challenges for Defense Planning written by Paul K. Davis and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 1994 with total page 769 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This definitive study on defense planning in the new era covers alternative strategies and structures for post-Cold War defense planning and planning under uncertainty.
