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Electrical Load Forecasting

Author: S.A. Soliman

Publisher: Elsevier

Published: 2010-05-26

Total Pages: 441

ISBN-13: 0123815444

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Succinct and understandable, this book is a step-by-step guide to the mathematics and construction of electrical load forecasting models. Written by one of the world’s foremost experts on the subject, Electrical Load Forecasting provides a brief discussion of algorithms, their advantages and disadvantages and when they are best utilized. The book begins with a good description of the basic theory and models needed to truly understand how the models are prepared so that they are not just blindly plugging and chugging numbers. This is followed by a clear and rigorous exposition of the statistical techniques and algorithms such as regression, neural networks, fuzzy logic, and expert systems. The book is also supported by an online computer program that allows readers to construct, validate, and run short and long term models. Step-by-step guide to model construction Construct, verify, and run short and long term models Accurately evaluate load shape and pricing Creat regional specific electrical load models

Book Synopsis Electrical Load Forecasting by : S.A. Soliman

Download or read book Electrical Load Forecasting written by S.A. Soliman and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2010-05-26 with total page 441 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Succinct and understandable, this book is a step-by-step guide to the mathematics and construction of electrical load forecasting models. Written by one of the world’s foremost experts on the subject, Electrical Load Forecasting provides a brief discussion of algorithms, their advantages and disadvantages and when they are best utilized. The book begins with a good description of the basic theory and models needed to truly understand how the models are prepared so that they are not just blindly plugging and chugging numbers. This is followed by a clear and rigorous exposition of the statistical techniques and algorithms such as regression, neural networks, fuzzy logic, and expert systems. The book is also supported by an online computer program that allows readers to construct, validate, and run short and long term models. Step-by-step guide to model construction Construct, verify, and run short and long term models Accurately evaluate load shape and pricing Creat regional specific electrical load models

Spatial Electric Load Forecasting

Author: H. Lee Willis

Publisher: CRC Press

Published: 2002-08-09

Total Pages: 770

ISBN-13: 9780203910764

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Containing 12 new chapters, this second edition offers increased coverage of weather correction and normalization of forecasts, anticipation of redevelopment, determining the validity of announced developments, and minimizing risk from over- or under-planning. It provides specific examples and detailed explanations of key points to consider for both standard and unusual utility forecasting situations, information on new algorithms and concepts in forecasting, a review of forecasting pitfalls and mistakes, case studies depicting challenging forecast environments, and load models illustrating various types of demand.

Book Synopsis Spatial Electric Load Forecasting by : H. Lee Willis

Download or read book Spatial Electric Load Forecasting written by H. Lee Willis and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2002-08-09 with total page 770 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Containing 12 new chapters, this second edition offers increased coverage of weather correction and normalization of forecasts, anticipation of redevelopment, determining the validity of announced developments, and minimizing risk from over- or under-planning. It provides specific examples and detailed explanations of key points to consider for both standard and unusual utility forecasting situations, information on new algorithms and concepts in forecasting, a review of forecasting pitfalls and mistakes, case studies depicting challenging forecast environments, and load models illustrating various types of demand.

Short-Term Load Forecasting 2019

Author: Antonio Gabaldón

Publisher: MDPI

Published: 2021-02-26

Total Pages: 324

ISBN-13: 303943442X

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Short-term load forecasting (STLF) plays a key role in the formulation of economic, reliable, and secure operating strategies (planning, scheduling, maintenance, and control processes, among others) for a power system and will be significant in the future. However, there is still much to do in these research areas. The deployment of enabling technologies (e.g., smart meters) has made high-granularity data available for many customer segments and to approach many issues, for instance, to make forecasting tasks feasible at several demand aggregation levels. The first challenge is the improvement of STLF models and their performance at new aggregation levels. Moreover, the mix of renewables in the power system, and the necessity to include more flexibility through demand response initiatives have introduced greater uncertainties, which means new challenges for STLF in a more dynamic power system in the 2030–50 horizon. Many techniques have been proposed and applied for STLF, including traditional statistical models and AI techniques. Besides, distribution planning needs, as well as grid modernization, have initiated the development of hierarchical load forecasting. Analogously, the need to face new sources of uncertainty in the power system is giving more importance to probabilistic load forecasting. This Special Issue deals with both fundamental research and practical application research on STLF methodologies to face the challenges of a more distributed and customer-centered power system.

Book Synopsis Short-Term Load Forecasting 2019 by : Antonio Gabaldón

Download or read book Short-Term Load Forecasting 2019 written by Antonio Gabaldón and published by MDPI. This book was released on 2021-02-26 with total page 324 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Short-term load forecasting (STLF) plays a key role in the formulation of economic, reliable, and secure operating strategies (planning, scheduling, maintenance, and control processes, among others) for a power system and will be significant in the future. However, there is still much to do in these research areas. The deployment of enabling technologies (e.g., smart meters) has made high-granularity data available for many customer segments and to approach many issues, for instance, to make forecasting tasks feasible at several demand aggregation levels. The first challenge is the improvement of STLF models and their performance at new aggregation levels. Moreover, the mix of renewables in the power system, and the necessity to include more flexibility through demand response initiatives have introduced greater uncertainties, which means new challenges for STLF in a more dynamic power system in the 2030–50 horizon. Many techniques have been proposed and applied for STLF, including traditional statistical models and AI techniques. Besides, distribution planning needs, as well as grid modernization, have initiated the development of hierarchical load forecasting. Analogously, the need to face new sources of uncertainty in the power system is giving more importance to probabilistic load forecasting. This Special Issue deals with both fundamental research and practical application research on STLF methodologies to face the challenges of a more distributed and customer-centered power system.

Applied Mathematics for Restructured Electric Power Systems

Author: Joe H. Chow

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2006-06-03

Total Pages: 345

ISBN-13: 0387234713

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Applied Mathematics for Restructured Electric Power Systems: Optimization, Control, and Computational Intelligence consists of chapters based on work presented at a National Science Foundation workshop organized in November 2003. The theme of the workshop was the use of applied mathematics to solve challenging power system problems. The areas included control, optimization, and computational intelligence. In addition to the introductory chapter, this book includes 12 chapters written by renowned experts in their respected fields. Each chapter follows a three-part format: (1) a description of an important power system problem or problems, (2) the current practice and/or particular research approaches, and (3) future research directions. Collectively, the technical areas discussed are voltage and oscillatory stability, power system security margins, hierarchical and decentralized control, stability monitoring, embedded optimization, neural network control with adaptive critic architecture, control tuning using genetic algorithms, and load forecasting and component prediction. This volume is intended for power systems researchers and professionals charged with solving electric and power system problems.

Book Synopsis Applied Mathematics for Restructured Electric Power Systems by : Joe H. Chow

Download or read book Applied Mathematics for Restructured Electric Power Systems written by Joe H. Chow and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006-06-03 with total page 345 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Applied Mathematics for Restructured Electric Power Systems: Optimization, Control, and Computational Intelligence consists of chapters based on work presented at a National Science Foundation workshop organized in November 2003. The theme of the workshop was the use of applied mathematics to solve challenging power system problems. The areas included control, optimization, and computational intelligence. In addition to the introductory chapter, this book includes 12 chapters written by renowned experts in their respected fields. Each chapter follows a three-part format: (1) a description of an important power system problem or problems, (2) the current practice and/or particular research approaches, and (3) future research directions. Collectively, the technical areas discussed are voltage and oscillatory stability, power system security margins, hierarchical and decentralized control, stability monitoring, embedded optimization, neural network control with adaptive critic architecture, control tuning using genetic algorithms, and load forecasting and component prediction. This volume is intended for power systems researchers and professionals charged with solving electric and power system problems.

Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Loads and Prices

Author: Rafal Weron

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

Published: 2007-01-30

Total Pages: 192

ISBN-13: 0470059990

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This book offers an in-depth and up-to-date review of different statistical tools that can be used to analyze and forecast the dynamics of two crucial for every energy company processes—electricity prices and loads. It provides coverage of seasonal decomposition, mean reversion, heavy-tailed distributions, exponential smoothing, spike preprocessing, autoregressive time series including models with exogenous variables and heteroskedastic (GARCH) components, regime-switching models, interval forecasts, jump-diffusion models, derivatives pricing and the market price of risk. Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Loads and Prices is packaged with a CD containing both the data and detailed examples of implementation of different techniques in Matlab, with additional examples in SAS. A reader can retrace all the intermediate steps of a practical implementation of a model and test his understanding of the method and correctness of the computer code using the same input data. The book will be of particular interest to the quants employed by the utilities, independent power generators and marketers, energy trading desks of the hedge funds and financial institutions, and the executives attending courses designed to help them to brush up on their technical skills. The text will be also of use to graduate students in electrical engineering, econometrics and finance wanting to get a grip on advanced statistical tools applied in this hot area. In fact, there are sixteen Case Studies in the book making it a self-contained tutorial to electricity load and price modeling and forecasting.

Book Synopsis Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Loads and Prices by : Rafal Weron

Download or read book Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Loads and Prices written by Rafal Weron and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2007-01-30 with total page 192 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book offers an in-depth and up-to-date review of different statistical tools that can be used to analyze and forecast the dynamics of two crucial for every energy company processes—electricity prices and loads. It provides coverage of seasonal decomposition, mean reversion, heavy-tailed distributions, exponential smoothing, spike preprocessing, autoregressive time series including models with exogenous variables and heteroskedastic (GARCH) components, regime-switching models, interval forecasts, jump-diffusion models, derivatives pricing and the market price of risk. Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Loads and Prices is packaged with a CD containing both the data and detailed examples of implementation of different techniques in Matlab, with additional examples in SAS. A reader can retrace all the intermediate steps of a practical implementation of a model and test his understanding of the method and correctness of the computer code using the same input data. The book will be of particular interest to the quants employed by the utilities, independent power generators and marketers, energy trading desks of the hedge funds and financial institutions, and the executives attending courses designed to help them to brush up on their technical skills. The text will be also of use to graduate students in electrical engineering, econometrics and finance wanting to get a grip on advanced statistical tools applied in this hot area. In fact, there are sixteen Case Studies in the book making it a self-contained tutorial to electricity load and price modeling and forecasting.

Comparative Models for Electrical Load Forecasting

Author: Derek W. Bunn

Publisher:

Published: 1985

Total Pages: 256

ISBN-13:

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Takes a practical look at how short-term forecasting has actually been undertaken and is being developed in public utility organizations.

Book Synopsis Comparative Models for Electrical Load Forecasting by : Derek W. Bunn

Download or read book Comparative Models for Electrical Load Forecasting written by Derek W. Bunn and published by . This book was released on 1985 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Takes a practical look at how short-term forecasting has actually been undertaken and is being developed in public utility organizations.

Forecasting and Assessing Risk of Individual Electricity Peaks

Author: Maria Jacob

Publisher: Springer Nature

Published: 2019-09-25

Total Pages: 108

ISBN-13: 303028669X

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The overarching aim of this open access book is to present self-contained theory and algorithms for investigation and prediction of electric demand peaks. A cross-section of popular demand forecasting algorithms from statistics, machine learning and mathematics is presented, followed by extreme value theory techniques with examples. In order to achieve carbon targets, good forecasts of peaks are essential. For instance, shifting demand or charging battery depends on correct demand predictions in time. Majority of forecasting algorithms historically were focused on average load prediction. In order to model the peaks, methods from extreme value theory are applied. This allows us to study extremes without making any assumption on the central parts of demand distribution and to predict beyond the range of available data. While applied on individual loads, the techniques described in this book can be extended naturally to substations, or to commercial settings. Extreme value theory techniques presented can be also used across other disciplines, for example for predicting heavy rainfalls, wind speed, solar radiation and extreme weather events. The book is intended for students, academics, engineers and professionals that are interested in short term load prediction, energy data analytics, battery control, demand side response and data science in general.

Book Synopsis Forecasting and Assessing Risk of Individual Electricity Peaks by : Maria Jacob

Download or read book Forecasting and Assessing Risk of Individual Electricity Peaks written by Maria Jacob and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2019-09-25 with total page 108 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The overarching aim of this open access book is to present self-contained theory and algorithms for investigation and prediction of electric demand peaks. A cross-section of popular demand forecasting algorithms from statistics, machine learning and mathematics is presented, followed by extreme value theory techniques with examples. In order to achieve carbon targets, good forecasts of peaks are essential. For instance, shifting demand or charging battery depends on correct demand predictions in time. Majority of forecasting algorithms historically were focused on average load prediction. In order to model the peaks, methods from extreme value theory are applied. This allows us to study extremes without making any assumption on the central parts of demand distribution and to predict beyond the range of available data. While applied on individual loads, the techniques described in this book can be extended naturally to substations, or to commercial settings. Extreme value theory techniques presented can be also used across other disciplines, for example for predicting heavy rainfalls, wind speed, solar radiation and extreme weather events. The book is intended for students, academics, engineers and professionals that are interested in short term load prediction, energy data analytics, battery control, demand side response and data science in general.

Power System Planning Technologies and Applications: Concepts, Solutions and Management

Author: Elkarmi, Fawwaz

Publisher: IGI Global

Published: 2012-02-29

Total Pages: 297

ISBN-13: 1466601744

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"This book focuses on the technical planning of power systems, taking into account technological evolutions in equipment as well as the economic, financial, and societal factors that drive supply and demand and have implications for technical planning at the micro level"--Provided by publisher.

Book Synopsis Power System Planning Technologies and Applications: Concepts, Solutions and Management by : Elkarmi, Fawwaz

Download or read book Power System Planning Technologies and Applications: Concepts, Solutions and Management written by Elkarmi, Fawwaz and published by IGI Global. This book was released on 2012-02-29 with total page 297 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This book focuses on the technical planning of power systems, taking into account technological evolutions in equipment as well as the economic, financial, and societal factors that drive supply and demand and have implications for technical planning at the micro level"--Provided by publisher.

Electric Power Systems

Author: João P. S. Catalão

Publisher: CRC Press

Published: 2017-12-19

Total Pages: 462

ISBN-13: 1439893969

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Electric Power Systems: Advanced Forecasting Techniques and Optimal Generation Scheduling helps readers develop their skills in modeling, simulating, and optimizing electric power systems. Carefully balancing theory and practice, it presents novel, cutting-edge developments in forecasting and scheduling. The focus is on understanding and solving pivotal problems in the management of electric power generation systems. Methods for Coping with Uncertainty and Risk in Electric Power Generation Outlining real-world problems, the book begins with an overview of electric power generation systems. Since the ability to cope with uncertainty and risk is crucial for power generating companies, the second part of the book examines the latest methods and models for self-scheduling, load forecasting, short-term electricity price forecasting, and wind power forecasting. Toward Optimal Coordination between Hydro, Thermal, and Wind Power Using case studies, the third part of the book investigates how to achieve the most favorable use of available energy sources. Chapters in this section discuss price-based scheduling for generating companies, optimal scheduling of a hydro producer, hydro-thermal coordination, unit commitment with wind generators, and optimal optimization of multigeneration systems. Written in a pedagogical style that will appeal to graduate students, the book also expands on research results that are useful for engineers and researchers. It presents the latest techniques in increasingly important areas of power system operations and planning.

Book Synopsis Electric Power Systems by : João P. S. Catalão

Download or read book Electric Power Systems written by João P. S. Catalão and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2017-12-19 with total page 462 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Electric Power Systems: Advanced Forecasting Techniques and Optimal Generation Scheduling helps readers develop their skills in modeling, simulating, and optimizing electric power systems. Carefully balancing theory and practice, it presents novel, cutting-edge developments in forecasting and scheduling. The focus is on understanding and solving pivotal problems in the management of electric power generation systems. Methods for Coping with Uncertainty and Risk in Electric Power Generation Outlining real-world problems, the book begins with an overview of electric power generation systems. Since the ability to cope with uncertainty and risk is crucial for power generating companies, the second part of the book examines the latest methods and models for self-scheduling, load forecasting, short-term electricity price forecasting, and wind power forecasting. Toward Optimal Coordination between Hydro, Thermal, and Wind Power Using case studies, the third part of the book investigates how to achieve the most favorable use of available energy sources. Chapters in this section discuss price-based scheduling for generating companies, optimal scheduling of a hydro producer, hydro-thermal coordination, unit commitment with wind generators, and optimal optimization of multigeneration systems. Written in a pedagogical style that will appeal to graduate students, the book also expands on research results that are useful for engineers and researchers. It presents the latest techniques in increasingly important areas of power system operations and planning.

Ensemble Forecasting Applied to Power Systems

Author: Antonio Bracale

Publisher: MDPI

Published: 2020-03-10

Total Pages: 134

ISBN-13: 303928312X

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Modern power systems are affected by many sources of uncertainty, driven by the spread of renewable generation, by the development of liberalized energy market systems and by the intrinsic random behavior of the final energy customers. Forecasting is, therefore, a crucial task in planning and managing modern power systems at any level: from transmission to distribution networks, and in also the new context of smart grids. Recent trends suggest the suitability of ensemble approaches in order to increase the versatility and robustness of forecasting systems. Stacking, boosting, and bagging techniques have recently started to attract the interest of power system practitioners. This book addresses the development of new, advanced, ensemble forecasting methods applied to power systems, collecting recent contributions to the development of accurate forecasts of energy-related variables by some of the most qualified experts in energy forecasting. Typical areas of research (renewable energy forecasting, load forecasting, energy price forecasting) are investigated, with relevant applications to the use of forecasts in energy management systems.

Book Synopsis Ensemble Forecasting Applied to Power Systems by : Antonio Bracale

Download or read book Ensemble Forecasting Applied to Power Systems written by Antonio Bracale and published by MDPI. This book was released on 2020-03-10 with total page 134 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Modern power systems are affected by many sources of uncertainty, driven by the spread of renewable generation, by the development of liberalized energy market systems and by the intrinsic random behavior of the final energy customers. Forecasting is, therefore, a crucial task in planning and managing modern power systems at any level: from transmission to distribution networks, and in also the new context of smart grids. Recent trends suggest the suitability of ensemble approaches in order to increase the versatility and robustness of forecasting systems. Stacking, boosting, and bagging techniques have recently started to attract the interest of power system practitioners. This book addresses the development of new, advanced, ensemble forecasting methods applied to power systems, collecting recent contributions to the development of accurate forecasts of energy-related variables by some of the most qualified experts in energy forecasting. Typical areas of research (renewable energy forecasting, load forecasting, energy price forecasting) are investigated, with relevant applications to the use of forecasts in energy management systems.