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The oil price shocks of the 1970’s led to severe recessions in the 1980’s in the United States. Originally published in 1989 in the aftermath, Bohi attempts to show both how energy prices can cause a decline in output and employment and to explore important other factors which led to the recessions using the US, United Kingdom, Japan and Germany as examples. The findings in Energy Price Shocks and Macroeconomic Performance have major implications for energy policy and questions government plans which focus solely on preventing another oil supply disruption. This title will be of interest to students of environmental studies and economics as well as professionals.
Book Synopsis Energy Price Shocks and Macroeconomic Performance by : Douglas R. Bohi
Download or read book Energy Price Shocks and Macroeconomic Performance written by Douglas R. Bohi and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2017-02-17 with total page 96 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The oil price shocks of the 1970’s led to severe recessions in the 1980’s in the United States. Originally published in 1989 in the aftermath, Bohi attempts to show both how energy prices can cause a decline in output and employment and to explore important other factors which led to the recessions using the US, United Kingdom, Japan and Germany as examples. The findings in Energy Price Shocks and Macroeconomic Performance have major implications for energy policy and questions government plans which focus solely on preventing another oil supply disruption. This title will be of interest to students of environmental studies and economics as well as professionals.
Book Synopsis The Economic Effects of Recent Increases in Energy Prices by :
Download or read book The Economic Effects of Recent Increases in Energy Prices written by and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Large-scale macroeconomic models have been used extensively to analyze a wide range of important economic issues. They were originally developed to study the economy's response to monetary and fiscal policies. During the 1970s these models were expanded and revised to track the inflationary processes and to incorporate key energy variables so that they could be used to examine the impacts of energy price shocks.This study compares the responses of 14 prominent macroeconomic models to supply-side shocks in the form of sudden energy price increases or decreases and to policies for lessening the impacts of price jumps. Four energy price shocks were examined: oil price increases of 50 and 20 percent, an oil price reduction of 20 percent, and an 80 percent increase in domestic natural gas prices. Five policy responses were considered for offsetting the GNP impacts of the larger oil price increase: monetary accommodation, an income tax rate reduction, an increase in the investment tax credit for equipment, a reduction in the employer's payroll tax rate, and an oil stockpile release.The study was conducted by a working group comprised of about 40 modelers and potential model users from universities, business, and government. As in previous EMF studies, the group pursued two broad goals. Firstly, they sought to understand the models themselves by identifying important similarities as well as structural differences. Secondly, they sought to use the models to sharpen their understanding of energy shocks and of the related policy issues. Their conclusions appear as the first chapter in this volume, the remaining chapters providing more technical treatment of the key structural differences among the participating models as well as their use for evaluating energy policies.This volume is addressed particularly to those interested in the energy shock issue, as well as to those with a broader interest in macroeconomic models and policies.
Book Synopsis Macroeconomic Impacts of Energy Shocks by : H.G. Huntington
Download or read book Macroeconomic Impacts of Energy Shocks written by H.G. Huntington and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2016-10-19 with total page 350 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Large-scale macroeconomic models have been used extensively to analyze a wide range of important economic issues. They were originally developed to study the economy's response to monetary and fiscal policies. During the 1970s these models were expanded and revised to track the inflationary processes and to incorporate key energy variables so that they could be used to examine the impacts of energy price shocks.This study compares the responses of 14 prominent macroeconomic models to supply-side shocks in the form of sudden energy price increases or decreases and to policies for lessening the impacts of price jumps. Four energy price shocks were examined: oil price increases of 50 and 20 percent, an oil price reduction of 20 percent, and an 80 percent increase in domestic natural gas prices. Five policy responses were considered for offsetting the GNP impacts of the larger oil price increase: monetary accommodation, an income tax rate reduction, an increase in the investment tax credit for equipment, a reduction in the employer's payroll tax rate, and an oil stockpile release.The study was conducted by a working group comprised of about 40 modelers and potential model users from universities, business, and government. As in previous EMF studies, the group pursued two broad goals. Firstly, they sought to understand the models themselves by identifying important similarities as well as structural differences. Secondly, they sought to use the models to sharpen their understanding of energy shocks and of the related policy issues. Their conclusions appear as the first chapter in this volume, the remaining chapters providing more technical treatment of the key structural differences among the participating models as well as their use for evaluating energy policies.This volume is addressed particularly to those interested in the energy shock issue, as well as to those with a broader interest in macroeconomic models and policies.
United States monetary policy has traditionally been modeled under the assumption that the domestic economy is immune to international factors and exogenous shocks. Such an assumption is increasingly unrealistic in the age of integrated capital markets, tightened links between national economies, and reduced trading costs. International Dimensions of Monetary Policy brings together fresh research to address the repercussions of the continuing evolution toward globalization for the conduct of monetary policy. In this comprehensive book, the authors examine the real and potential effects of increased openness and exposure to international economic dynamics from a variety of perspectives. Their findings reveal that central banks continue to influence decisively domestic economic outcomes—even inflation—suggesting that international factors may have a limited role in national performance. International Dimensions of Monetary Policy will lead the way in analyzing monetary policy measures in complex economies.
Book Synopsis International Dimensions of Monetary Policy by : Jordi Galí
Download or read book International Dimensions of Monetary Policy written by Jordi Galí and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2010-03-15 with total page 663 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: United States monetary policy has traditionally been modeled under the assumption that the domestic economy is immune to international factors and exogenous shocks. Such an assumption is increasingly unrealistic in the age of integrated capital markets, tightened links between national economies, and reduced trading costs. International Dimensions of Monetary Policy brings together fresh research to address the repercussions of the continuing evolution toward globalization for the conduct of monetary policy. In this comprehensive book, the authors examine the real and potential effects of increased openness and exposure to international economic dynamics from a variety of perspectives. Their findings reveal that central banks continue to influence decisively domestic economic outcomes—even inflation—suggesting that international factors may have a limited role in national performance. International Dimensions of Monetary Policy will lead the way in analyzing monetary policy measures in complex economies.
In the first chapter I study the effects of oil price shocks on economic activity at the U.S. state-level, an innovative feature of this dissertation. States which rely more heavily on manufacturing or tourism are more adversely affected by adverse oil price shocks, while states which are major energy producers either benefit or experience insignificant economic changes from historically large oil price increases. Additionally, oil price increases from 1986 to 2011 have not impacted state-level economies to the same degree as increases from 1976 to 1985. This discrepancy can be attributed to a fundamental change in the structure of the U.S. economy, for example, a declining manufacturing sector or an increase in the efficiency with which energy is used in the production process. In the second chapter I explore the effects of alternative measures of energy price shocks on economic activity and examine the relative performance of these alternative measures in forecasting macroeconomic activity. The alternative energy prices I consider are: gasoline, diesel, natural gas, heating oil and electricity. I find that alternative measures of energy price shocks produce different patterns of impulse responses than oil price shocks. The overwhelming evidence indicates that alternative energy price models, excluding a model containing gasoline prices, outperforms the baseline model containing oil prices for many states, particularly at short-to-mid forecast horizons. In the third chapter, which is coauthored with Lance Bachmeier, we determine whether accounting for oil price endogeneity is important when predicting state-level economic activity. We find that accounting for endogeneity matters for in-sample fit for most states. Specifically, in-sample fit would be improved by using a larger model which contains both regular oil price and endogenous oil price movements. However, we conclude that accounting for endogeneity is not important for out-of-sample forecast accuracy, and a simple model containing only the change in the price of oil produces equally accurate forecasts. Accounting for endogeneity is particularly important in an environment in which rising oil prices were caused by a growing global economy, such as in the years 2004-2007.
Book Synopsis Essays on the Macroeconomic Effects of Energy Price Shocks by : Mark Alan Melichar
Download or read book Essays on the Macroeconomic Effects of Energy Price Shocks written by Mark Alan Melichar and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the first chapter I study the effects of oil price shocks on economic activity at the U.S. state-level, an innovative feature of this dissertation. States which rely more heavily on manufacturing or tourism are more adversely affected by adverse oil price shocks, while states which are major energy producers either benefit or experience insignificant economic changes from historically large oil price increases. Additionally, oil price increases from 1986 to 2011 have not impacted state-level economies to the same degree as increases from 1976 to 1985. This discrepancy can be attributed to a fundamental change in the structure of the U.S. economy, for example, a declining manufacturing sector or an increase in the efficiency with which energy is used in the production process. In the second chapter I explore the effects of alternative measures of energy price shocks on economic activity and examine the relative performance of these alternative measures in forecasting macroeconomic activity. The alternative energy prices I consider are: gasoline, diesel, natural gas, heating oil and electricity. I find that alternative measures of energy price shocks produce different patterns of impulse responses than oil price shocks. The overwhelming evidence indicates that alternative energy price models, excluding a model containing gasoline prices, outperforms the baseline model containing oil prices for many states, particularly at short-to-mid forecast horizons. In the third chapter, which is coauthored with Lance Bachmeier, we determine whether accounting for oil price endogeneity is important when predicting state-level economic activity. We find that accounting for endogeneity matters for in-sample fit for most states. Specifically, in-sample fit would be improved by using a larger model which contains both regular oil price and endogenous oil price movements. However, we conclude that accounting for endogeneity is not important for out-of-sample forecast accuracy, and a simple model containing only the change in the price of oil produces equally accurate forecasts. Accounting for endogeneity is particularly important in an environment in which rising oil prices were caused by a growing global economy, such as in the years 2004-2007.
This study focuses on the relationship between energy consumption, oil price and macroeconomic performance of selected energy-dependent African countries. It was observed that energy consumption and crude oil price positively and significantly enhanced output growth but their impact on exchange rate is contradictory. Also, energy consumption and oil price were found to reduce inflation rate in the selected countries. It is therefore recommended that energy-dependent African countries should increase power generation and enhance crude oil local refining at affordable rates to boost energy consumption and reduce negative exogenous oil price shock on the macroeconomy.
Book Synopsis Energy consumption, oil price and macroeconomic performance in energy dependent African countries by : Perekunah Eregha
Download or read book Energy consumption, oil price and macroeconomic performance in energy dependent African countries written by Perekunah Eregha and published by Litres. This book was released on 2022-01-29 with total page 16 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study focuses on the relationship between energy consumption, oil price and macroeconomic performance of selected energy-dependent African countries. It was observed that energy consumption and crude oil price positively and significantly enhanced output growth but their impact on exchange rate is contradictory. Also, energy consumption and oil price were found to reduce inflation rate in the selected countries. It is therefore recommended that energy-dependent African countries should increase power generation and enhance crude oil local refining at affordable rates to boost energy consumption and reduce negative exogenous oil price shock on the macroeconomy.
Book Synopsis Energy and Economic Performance by : Douglas R. Bohi
Download or read book Energy and Economic Performance written by Douglas R. Bohi and published by . This book was released on 1986 with total page 86 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Energy Prices, Inflation, and Economic Activity by : Knut Anton Mork
Download or read book Energy Prices, Inflation, and Economic Activity written by Knut Anton Mork and published by . This book was released on 1981 with total page 200 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Energy Price Shocks and Economic Activity: Simulation Results of the Hubbard-Fry Model by : Stanford University. Energy Modeling Forum
Download or read book Energy Price Shocks and Economic Activity: Simulation Results of the Hubbard-Fry Model written by Stanford University. Energy Modeling Forum and published by . This book was released on 1983 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
"Models that treat innovations to the price of energy as predetermined with respect to U.S. macroeconomic aggregates are widely used in the literature. For example, it is common to order energy prices first in recursively identified VAR models of the transmission of energy price shocks. Since exactly identifying assumptions are inherently untestable, this approach in practice has required an act of faith in the empirical plausibility of the delay restriction used for identification. An alternative view that would invalidate such models is that energy prices respond instantaneously to macroeconomic news, implying that energy prices should be ordered last in recursively identified VAR models. In this paper, we propose a formal test of the identifying assumption that energy prices are predetermined with respect to U.S. macroeconomic aggregates. Our test is based on regressing cumulative changes in daily energy prices on daily news from U.S. macroeconomic data releases. Using a wide range of macroeconomic news, we find no compelling evidence of feedback at daily or monthly horizons, contradicting the view that energy prices respond instantaneously to macroeconomic news and supporting the use of delay restrictions for identification"--Federal Reserve Board web site.
Book Synopsis Do Energy Prices Respond to U.S. Macroeconomic News? a Test of the Hypothesis of Predetermined Energy Prices by : Lutz Kilian
Download or read book Do Energy Prices Respond to U.S. Macroeconomic News? a Test of the Hypothesis of Predetermined Energy Prices written by Lutz Kilian and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Models that treat innovations to the price of energy as predetermined with respect to U.S. macroeconomic aggregates are widely used in the literature. For example, it is common to order energy prices first in recursively identified VAR models of the transmission of energy price shocks. Since exactly identifying assumptions are inherently untestable, this approach in practice has required an act of faith in the empirical plausibility of the delay restriction used for identification. An alternative view that would invalidate such models is that energy prices respond instantaneously to macroeconomic news, implying that energy prices should be ordered last in recursively identified VAR models. In this paper, we propose a formal test of the identifying assumption that energy prices are predetermined with respect to U.S. macroeconomic aggregates. Our test is based on regressing cumulative changes in daily energy prices on daily news from U.S. macroeconomic data releases. Using a wide range of macroeconomic news, we find no compelling evidence of feedback at daily or monthly horizons, contradicting the view that energy prices respond instantaneously to macroeconomic news and supporting the use of delay restrictions for identification"--Federal Reserve Board web site.
