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In light of the real appreciation of the Egyptian pound over the last six years and Egypt’s lackluster export growth, questions of external competitiveness and exchange rate policy have arisen. This paper sheds light on these issues by estimating empirically Egypt’s equilibrium real exchange rate, that is, the rate that is consistent with fundamentals. The results show that, while the real exchange rate was substantially overvalued before 1993, today it is only moderately above the equilibrium rate. Moreover, the analysis shows that the recent appreciation of the pound does not indicate a worsening misalignment.
Book Synopsis Estimating Egypt’s Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate by : Mr.Joannes Mongardini
Download or read book Estimating Egypt’s Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate written by Mr.Joannes Mongardini and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1998-01-01 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In light of the real appreciation of the Egyptian pound over the last six years and Egypt’s lackluster export growth, questions of external competitiveness and exchange rate policy have arisen. This paper sheds light on these issues by estimating empirically Egypt’s equilibrium real exchange rate, that is, the rate that is consistent with fundamentals. The results show that, while the real exchange rate was substantially overvalued before 1993, today it is only moderately above the equilibrium rate. Moreover, the analysis shows that the recent appreciation of the pound does not indicate a worsening misalignment.
Book Synopsis Exchange Rate Misalignment in Egypt by : Nagwa Samir Riad
Download or read book Exchange Rate Misalignment in Egypt written by Nagwa Samir Riad and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 508 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Single-equation Estimation of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate by : John Baffes
Download or read book Single-equation Estimation of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate written by John Baffes and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis ESTIMATING EPYPT'S EQUILIBRIUM REAL EXCHANGE RATE by : Joannes MONGARDINI
Download or read book ESTIMATING EPYPT'S EQUILIBRIUM REAL EXCHANGE RATE written by Joannes MONGARDINI and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
In March 1990, the Government of Egypt (GOE) launched a comprehensive economic and social reform program (ERSAP) to strengthen Egypt's ongoing adjustment program. The reform program constituted a major break from the policies pursued in the past, and had the underlying objective of modernizing the country and improving living standards. While the program has scored many successes, many observers of the Egyptian economy believe that the real exchange rate (RE) is currently out of equilibrium. The RE prevailing in a country at any point in time is determined by two main factors: structural (e.g., external capital flows, changes in terms of trade, and commercial policy), and short run factors (macroeconomic policy in general). This study suggests and focuses on three of the structural factors that can affect the RE in Egypt. The first is the increase in the flow of foreign capital both public and private.
Book Synopsis External Shocks and the Real Exchange Rate by : Khalifa Hassanain
Download or read book External Shocks and the Real Exchange Rate written by Khalifa Hassanain and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 232 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In March 1990, the Government of Egypt (GOE) launched a comprehensive economic and social reform program (ERSAP) to strengthen Egypt's ongoing adjustment program. The reform program constituted a major break from the policies pursued in the past, and had the underlying objective of modernizing the country and improving living standards. While the program has scored many successes, many observers of the Egyptian economy believe that the real exchange rate (RE) is currently out of equilibrium. The RE prevailing in a country at any point in time is determined by two main factors: structural (e.g., external capital flows, changes in terms of trade, and commercial policy), and short run factors (macroeconomic policy in general). This study suggests and focuses on three of the structural factors that can affect the RE in Egypt. The first is the increase in the flow of foreign capital both public and private.
Book Synopsis Single-equation Estimation of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate by : Ohn Baffes
Download or read book Single-equation Estimation of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate written by Ohn Baffes and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
This paper examines the effect of the real exchange rate misalignment (RERMIS) on the collective economic growth of Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, and Tunisia. The paper constructs three measures of exchange rate misalignment based on purchasing power parity; a black market exchange rate; and a structured model. The empirical investigation confirmed the adverse effect of RERMIS on growth, using all measures of RERMIS, as predicted by endogenous growth models. The results also highlighted the role of other factors; specifically, capital growth and population have the theoretical signs predicted by the Solow growth model and are statistically significant.
Book Synopsis Real Exchange Rate Behavior and Economic Growth by : Ghiath Shabsigh
Download or read book Real Exchange Rate Behavior and Economic Growth written by Ghiath Shabsigh and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1999-03 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the effect of the real exchange rate misalignment (RERMIS) on the collective economic growth of Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, and Tunisia. The paper constructs three measures of exchange rate misalignment based on purchasing power parity; a black market exchange rate; and a structured model. The empirical investigation confirmed the adverse effect of RERMIS on growth, using all measures of RERMIS, as predicted by endogenous growth models. The results also highlighted the role of other factors; specifically, capital growth and population have the theoretical signs predicted by the Solow growth model and are statistically significant.
Equilibrium real exchange rate and corresponding misalignment estimates differ tremendously depending on the panel estimation method used to derive them. Essentially, these methods differ in their treatment of the time-series (time) and the cross-section (space) variation in the panel. The study shows that conventional panel estimation methods (pooled OLS, fixed, random, and between effects) can be interpreted as restricted versions of a correlated random effects (CRE) model. It formally derives the distortion that arises if these restrictions are violated and uses two empirical applications from the literature to show that the distortion is generally very large. This suggests the use of the CRE model for the panel estimation of equilibrium real exchange rates and misalignments.
Book Synopsis Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate Estimates Across Time and Space by : Christoph Fischer
Download or read book Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate Estimates Across Time and Space written by Christoph Fischer and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Equilibrium real exchange rate and corresponding misalignment estimates differ tremendously depending on the panel estimation method used to derive them. Essentially, these methods differ in their treatment of the time-series (time) and the cross-section (space) variation in the panel. The study shows that conventional panel estimation methods (pooled OLS, fixed, random, and between effects) can be interpreted as restricted versions of a correlated random effects (CRE) model. It formally derives the distortion that arises if these restrictions are violated and uses two empirical applications from the literature to show that the distortion is generally very large. This suggests the use of the CRE model for the panel estimation of equilibrium real exchange rates and misalignments.
This paper computes Malawi's equilibrium real exchange rate as a function of its fundamentals as derived from economic theory. It finds evidence in favor of the equilibrium approach to exchange rate determination, with several variables (particularly government consumption and real per capita growth) found to drive movements in the time-varying equilibrium real exchange rate. The results also indicate that following a shock there is a rapid reversion of the real exchange rate to its time-varying equilibrium, with a half-life of reversion of about 11 months.
Book Synopsis Estimation of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate for Malawi by : Mr.Johan Mathisen
Download or read book Estimation of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate for Malawi written by Mr.Johan Mathisen and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2003-05-01 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper computes Malawi's equilibrium real exchange rate as a function of its fundamentals as derived from economic theory. It finds evidence in favor of the equilibrium approach to exchange rate determination, with several variables (particularly government consumption and real per capita growth) found to drive movements in the time-varying equilibrium real exchange rate. The results also indicate that following a shock there is a rapid reversion of the real exchange rate to its time-varying equilibrium, with a half-life of reversion of about 11 months.
Questions about external competitiveness, exchange rate misalignment, and the appropriate exchange rate policy feature prominently in the Russian policy debate. This paper furthers the debate by estimating empirically Russia's equilibrium real exchange rate (ERER)-that is, the rate consistent with the long-run economic fundamentals-and sheds light on the extent to which exchange rate policy should be changed. The paper confirms that the ERER reflects both productivity and the terms of trade. It suggests that Russia should target a significant medium-term current account deterioration and a real appreciation perhaps exceeding 10 percent. However, this latter number remains very sensitive to the assumed long-run oil prices.
Book Synopsis The Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in a Commodity Exporting Country by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book The Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in a Commodity Exporting Country written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2003-05-01 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Questions about external competitiveness, exchange rate misalignment, and the appropriate exchange rate policy feature prominently in the Russian policy debate. This paper furthers the debate by estimating empirically Russia's equilibrium real exchange rate (ERER)-that is, the rate consistent with the long-run economic fundamentals-and sheds light on the extent to which exchange rate policy should be changed. The paper confirms that the ERER reflects both productivity and the terms of trade. It suggests that Russia should target a significant medium-term current account deterioration and a real appreciation perhaps exceeding 10 percent. However, this latter number remains very sensitive to the assumed long-run oil prices.
