Evaluation of Quantification of Margins and Uncertainties Methodology for Assessing and Certifying the Reliability of the Nuclear Stockpile

Evaluation of Quantification of Margins and Uncertainties Methodology for Assessing and Certifying the Reliability of the Nuclear Stockpile

Author: National Research Council

Publisher: National Academies Press

Published: 2009-03-02

Total Pages: 93

ISBN-13: 0309178460

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Maintaining the capabilities of the nuclear weapons stockpile and performing the annual assessment for the stockpile's certification involves a wide range of processes, technologies, and expertise. An important and valuable framework helping to link those components is the quantification of margins and uncertainties (QMU) methodology. In this book, the National Research Council evaluates: how the national security labs were using QMU, including any significant differences among the three labs its use in the annual assessment whether the applications of QMU to assess the proposed reliable replacement warhead (RRW) could reduce the likelihood of resuming underground nuclear testing This book presents an assessment of each of these issues and includes findings and recommendations to help guide laboratory and NNSA implementation and development of the QMU framework. It also serves as a guide for congressional oversight of those activities.


Book Synopsis Evaluation of Quantification of Margins and Uncertainties Methodology for Assessing and Certifying the Reliability of the Nuclear Stockpile by : National Research Council

Download or read book Evaluation of Quantification of Margins and Uncertainties Methodology for Assessing and Certifying the Reliability of the Nuclear Stockpile written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2009-03-02 with total page 93 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Maintaining the capabilities of the nuclear weapons stockpile and performing the annual assessment for the stockpile's certification involves a wide range of processes, technologies, and expertise. An important and valuable framework helping to link those components is the quantification of margins and uncertainties (QMU) methodology. In this book, the National Research Council evaluates: how the national security labs were using QMU, including any significant differences among the three labs its use in the annual assessment whether the applications of QMU to assess the proposed reliable replacement warhead (RRW) could reduce the likelihood of resuming underground nuclear testing This book presents an assessment of each of these issues and includes findings and recommendations to help guide laboratory and NNSA implementation and development of the QMU framework. It also serves as a guide for congressional oversight of those activities.

Safety and Reliability. Theory and Applications

Safety and Reliability. Theory and Applications

Author: Marko Cepin

Publisher: CRC Press

Published: 2017-06-14

Total Pages: 3668

ISBN-13: 1351809733

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Safety and Reliability – Theory and Applications contains the contributions presented at the 27th European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL 2017, Portorož, Slovenia, June 18-22, 2017). The book covers a wide range of topics, including: • Accident and Incident modelling • Economic Analysis in Risk Management • Foundational Issues in Risk Assessment and Management • Human Factors and Human Reliability • Maintenance Modeling and Applications • Mathematical Methods in Reliability and Safety • Prognostics and System Health Management • Resilience Engineering • Risk Assessment • Risk Management • Simulation for Safety and Reliability Analysis • Structural Reliability • System Reliability, and • Uncertainty Analysis. Selected special sessions include contributions on: the Marie Skłodowska-Curie innovative training network in structural safety; risk approaches in insurance and fi nance sectors; dynamic reliability and probabilistic safety assessment; Bayesian and statistical methods, reliability data and testing; oganizational factors and safety culture; software reliability and safety; probabilistic methods applied to power systems; socio-technical-economic systems; advanced safety assessment methodologies: extended Probabilistic Safety Assessment; reliability; availability; maintainability and safety in railways: theory & practice; big data risk analysis and management, and model-based reliability and safety engineering. Safety and Reliability – Theory and Applications will be of interest to professionals and academics working in a wide range of industrial and governmental sectors including: Aeronautics and Aerospace, Automotive Engineering, Civil Engineering, Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Energy Production and Distribution, Environmental Engineering, Information Technology and Telecommunications, Critical Infrastructures, Insurance and Finance, Manufacturing, Marine Industry, Mechanical Engineering, Natural Hazards, Nuclear Engineering, Offshore Oil and Gas, Security and Protection, Transportation, and Policy Making.


Book Synopsis Safety and Reliability. Theory and Applications by : Marko Cepin

Download or read book Safety and Reliability. Theory and Applications written by Marko Cepin and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2017-06-14 with total page 3668 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Safety and Reliability – Theory and Applications contains the contributions presented at the 27th European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL 2017, Portorož, Slovenia, June 18-22, 2017). The book covers a wide range of topics, including: • Accident and Incident modelling • Economic Analysis in Risk Management • Foundational Issues in Risk Assessment and Management • Human Factors and Human Reliability • Maintenance Modeling and Applications • Mathematical Methods in Reliability and Safety • Prognostics and System Health Management • Resilience Engineering • Risk Assessment • Risk Management • Simulation for Safety and Reliability Analysis • Structural Reliability • System Reliability, and • Uncertainty Analysis. Selected special sessions include contributions on: the Marie Skłodowska-Curie innovative training network in structural safety; risk approaches in insurance and fi nance sectors; dynamic reliability and probabilistic safety assessment; Bayesian and statistical methods, reliability data and testing; oganizational factors and safety culture; software reliability and safety; probabilistic methods applied to power systems; socio-technical-economic systems; advanced safety assessment methodologies: extended Probabilistic Safety Assessment; reliability; availability; maintainability and safety in railways: theory & practice; big data risk analysis and management, and model-based reliability and safety engineering. Safety and Reliability – Theory and Applications will be of interest to professionals and academics working in a wide range of industrial and governmental sectors including: Aeronautics and Aerospace, Automotive Engineering, Civil Engineering, Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Energy Production and Distribution, Environmental Engineering, Information Technology and Telecommunications, Critical Infrastructures, Insurance and Finance, Manufacturing, Marine Industry, Mechanical Engineering, Natural Hazards, Nuclear Engineering, Offshore Oil and Gas, Security and Protection, Transportation, and Policy Making.

Model Validation and Uncertainty Quantification, Volume 3

Model Validation and Uncertainty Quantification, Volume 3

Author: Robert Barthorpe

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2019-05-30

Total Pages: 299

ISBN-13: 3030120759

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Model Validation and Uncertainty Quantification, Volume 3: Proceedings of the 37th IMAC, A Conference and Exposition on Structural Dynamics, 2019, the third volume of eight from the Conference brings together contributions to this important area of research and engineering. The collection presents early findings and case studies on fundamental and applied aspects of Model Validation and Uncertainty Quantification, including papers on: Inverse Problems and Uncertainty Quantification Controlling Uncertainty Validation of Models for Operating Environments Model Validation & Uncertainty Quantification: Decision Making Uncertainty Quantification in Structural Dynamics Uncertainty in Early Stage Design Computational and Uncertainty Quantification Tools


Book Synopsis Model Validation and Uncertainty Quantification, Volume 3 by : Robert Barthorpe

Download or read book Model Validation and Uncertainty Quantification, Volume 3 written by Robert Barthorpe and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-05-30 with total page 299 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Model Validation and Uncertainty Quantification, Volume 3: Proceedings of the 37th IMAC, A Conference and Exposition on Structural Dynamics, 2019, the third volume of eight from the Conference brings together contributions to this important area of research and engineering. The collection presents early findings and case studies on fundamental and applied aspects of Model Validation and Uncertainty Quantification, including papers on: Inverse Problems and Uncertainty Quantification Controlling Uncertainty Validation of Models for Operating Environments Model Validation & Uncertainty Quantification: Decision Making Uncertainty Quantification in Structural Dynamics Uncertainty in Early Stage Design Computational and Uncertainty Quantification Tools

Assessing the Reliability of Complex Models

Assessing the Reliability of Complex Models

Author: National Research Council

Publisher: National Academies Press

Published: 2012-07-26

Total Pages: 144

ISBN-13: 0309256348

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Advances in computing hardware and algorithms have dramatically improved the ability to simulate complex processes computationally. Today's simulation capabilities offer the prospect of addressing questions that in the past could be addressed only by resource-intensive experimentation, if at all. Assessing the Reliability of Complex Models recognizes the ubiquity of uncertainty in computational estimates of reality and the necessity for its quantification. As computational science and engineering have matured, the process of quantifying or bounding uncertainties in a computational estimate of a physical quality of interest has evolved into a small set of interdependent tasks: verification, validation, and uncertainty of quantification (VVUQ). In recognition of the increasing importance of computational simulation and the increasing need to assess uncertainties in computational results, the National Research Council was asked to study the mathematical foundations of VVUQ and to recommend steps that will ultimately lead to improved processes. Assessing the Reliability of Complex Models discusses changes in education of professionals and dissemination of information that should enhance the ability of future VVUQ practitioners to improve and properly apply VVUQ methodologies to difficult problems, enhance the ability of VVUQ customers to understand VVUQ results and use them to make informed decisions, and enhance the ability of all VVUQ stakeholders to communicate with each other. This report is an essential resource for all decision and policy makers in the field, students, stakeholders, UQ experts, and VVUQ educators and practitioners.


Book Synopsis Assessing the Reliability of Complex Models by : National Research Council

Download or read book Assessing the Reliability of Complex Models written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2012-07-26 with total page 144 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Advances in computing hardware and algorithms have dramatically improved the ability to simulate complex processes computationally. Today's simulation capabilities offer the prospect of addressing questions that in the past could be addressed only by resource-intensive experimentation, if at all. Assessing the Reliability of Complex Models recognizes the ubiquity of uncertainty in computational estimates of reality and the necessity for its quantification. As computational science and engineering have matured, the process of quantifying or bounding uncertainties in a computational estimate of a physical quality of interest has evolved into a small set of interdependent tasks: verification, validation, and uncertainty of quantification (VVUQ). In recognition of the increasing importance of computational simulation and the increasing need to assess uncertainties in computational results, the National Research Council was asked to study the mathematical foundations of VVUQ and to recommend steps that will ultimately lead to improved processes. Assessing the Reliability of Complex Models discusses changes in education of professionals and dissemination of information that should enhance the ability of future VVUQ practitioners to improve and properly apply VVUQ methodologies to difficult problems, enhance the ability of VVUQ customers to understand VVUQ results and use them to make informed decisions, and enhance the ability of all VVUQ stakeholders to communicate with each other. This report is an essential resource for all decision and policy makers in the field, students, stakeholders, UQ experts, and VVUQ educators and practitioners.

Review of the DOE National Security Labs' Use of Archival Nuclear Test Data

Review of the DOE National Security Labs' Use of Archival Nuclear Test Data

Author:

Publisher:

Published: 2009

Total Pages: 15

ISBN-13: 9780309141581

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"In 2006, the U.S. Congress and the National Nuclear Security Administration of the Department of Energy requested an evaluation of the quantification of margins and uncertainties framework used by the national security laboratories in support of their nuclear weapons stockpile stewardship activities. The first part of the request resulted in the book, Evaluation of Quantification of Margins and Uncertainties Methodology for Assessing and Certifying the Reliability of the Nuclear Stockpile. The present letter report fulfills the second part of that request: a high-level overview of the way the archival underground nuclear test data are used by the labs in its application of QMU. Specifically the committee was asked to assess how archived data are used in the evaluation of margins and uncertainties, and whether or not design labs are fully exploiting the data for QMU. This includes use for baselining codes, informing annual assessment, assessing significant finding investigations, and more. This letter report presents the results of the study committee's analysis based on two meetings-one to Los Alamos National Laboratory and another to Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. The report begins with a short background section followed by the findings, recommendations, and analysis."--Publisher's description.


Book Synopsis Review of the DOE National Security Labs' Use of Archival Nuclear Test Data by :

Download or read book Review of the DOE National Security Labs' Use of Archival Nuclear Test Data written by and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 15 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "In 2006, the U.S. Congress and the National Nuclear Security Administration of the Department of Energy requested an evaluation of the quantification of margins and uncertainties framework used by the national security laboratories in support of their nuclear weapons stockpile stewardship activities. The first part of the request resulted in the book, Evaluation of Quantification of Margins and Uncertainties Methodology for Assessing and Certifying the Reliability of the Nuclear Stockpile. The present letter report fulfills the second part of that request: a high-level overview of the way the archival underground nuclear test data are used by the labs in its application of QMU. Specifically the committee was asked to assess how archived data are used in the evaluation of margins and uncertainties, and whether or not design labs are fully exploiting the data for QMU. This includes use for baselining codes, informing annual assessment, assessing significant finding investigations, and more. This letter report presents the results of the study committee's analysis based on two meetings-one to Los Alamos National Laboratory and another to Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. The report begins with a short background section followed by the findings, recommendations, and analysis."--Publisher's description.

Nuclear Weapons: NNSA Needs to Refine and More Effectively Manage its New Approach for Assessing & Certifying Nuclear Weapons

Nuclear Weapons: NNSA Needs to Refine and More Effectively Manage its New Approach for Assessing & Certifying Nuclear Weapons

Author:

Publisher: DIANE Publishing

Published: 2006

Total Pages: 56

ISBN-13: 142893040X

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Book Synopsis Nuclear Weapons: NNSA Needs to Refine and More Effectively Manage its New Approach for Assessing & Certifying Nuclear Weapons by :

Download or read book Nuclear Weapons: NNSA Needs to Refine and More Effectively Manage its New Approach for Assessing & Certifying Nuclear Weapons written by and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2006 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

The Quality of Science and Engineering at the NNSA National Security Laboratories

The Quality of Science and Engineering at the NNSA National Security Laboratories

Author: National Research Council

Publisher: National Academies Press

Published: 2013-09-10

Total Pages: 74

ISBN-13: 0309290937

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The three National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) national security laboratories--Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), and Sandia National Laboratories (SNL)--are a major component of the U.S. government's laboratory complex and of the national science and technology base. These laboratories are large, diverse, highly respected institutions with broad programs in basic sciences, applied sciences, technology development, and engineering; and they are home to world-class staff and facilities. Under a recent interagency agreement between the Department of Energy (DOE), Department of Defense, Department of Homeland Security, and the intelligence community, they are evolving to serve the needs of the broad national security community. Despite this broadening of substance and support, these laboratories remain the unique locus of science and engineering (S&E) for the U.S. nuclear weapons program, including, most significantly, the science-based stockpile stewardship program and the S&E basis for analyzing and understanding nuclear weapon developments of other nations and non-state actors. The National Research Council (NRC) was asked by Congress to assess the quality of S&E and the management of S&E at these three laboratories. The Quality of Science and Engineering at the NNSA National Security Laboratories is the second of two reports produced as part of this study. This report assesses the quality of S&E in terms of the capability of the laboratories to perform the necessary tasks to execute the laboratories' missions, both at present and in the future. The report identifies the following as four basic pillars of stockpile stewardship and non-proliferation analysis: (1) the weapons design; (2) systems engineering and understanding of the effects of aging on system performance; (3) weapons science base; and (4) modeling and simulation, which provides a capability to integrate theory, experimental data, and system design. The Quality of Science and Engineering at the NNSA National Security Laboratories offers a snapshot of the present with an eye to the future. This report discusses the current state of S&E and makes recommendations to maintain robust programs.


Book Synopsis The Quality of Science and Engineering at the NNSA National Security Laboratories by : National Research Council

Download or read book The Quality of Science and Engineering at the NNSA National Security Laboratories written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2013-09-10 with total page 74 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The three National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) national security laboratories--Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), and Sandia National Laboratories (SNL)--are a major component of the U.S. government's laboratory complex and of the national science and technology base. These laboratories are large, diverse, highly respected institutions with broad programs in basic sciences, applied sciences, technology development, and engineering; and they are home to world-class staff and facilities. Under a recent interagency agreement between the Department of Energy (DOE), Department of Defense, Department of Homeland Security, and the intelligence community, they are evolving to serve the needs of the broad national security community. Despite this broadening of substance and support, these laboratories remain the unique locus of science and engineering (S&E) for the U.S. nuclear weapons program, including, most significantly, the science-based stockpile stewardship program and the S&E basis for analyzing and understanding nuclear weapon developments of other nations and non-state actors. The National Research Council (NRC) was asked by Congress to assess the quality of S&E and the management of S&E at these three laboratories. The Quality of Science and Engineering at the NNSA National Security Laboratories is the second of two reports produced as part of this study. This report assesses the quality of S&E in terms of the capability of the laboratories to perform the necessary tasks to execute the laboratories' missions, both at present and in the future. The report identifies the following as four basic pillars of stockpile stewardship and non-proliferation analysis: (1) the weapons design; (2) systems engineering and understanding of the effects of aging on system performance; (3) weapons science base; and (4) modeling and simulation, which provides a capability to integrate theory, experimental data, and system design. The Quality of Science and Engineering at the NNSA National Security Laboratories offers a snapshot of the present with an eye to the future. This report discusses the current state of S&E and makes recommendations to maintain robust programs.

Peer Review and Design Competition in the NNSA National Security Laboratories

Peer Review and Design Competition in the NNSA National Security Laboratories

Author: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine

Publisher: National Academies Press

Published: 2016-01-07

Total Pages: 85

ISBN-13: 0309378435

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The National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) is responsible for providing and maintaining the capabilities necessary to sustain a safe, secure, and reliable nuclear weapons stockpile for the nation and its allies. Major responsibility for meeting the NNSA missions falls to the three NNSA laboratories: Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), and Sandia National Laboratories (SNL). The NNSA National Security Laboratories contribute to that goal by maintaining the skills and capabilities necessary for stewardship of a reliable nuclear stockpile and also by maintaining a high level of technical credibility, which is a component of the nuclear deterrent. Since 1992 it has been U.S. policy not to conduct explosion tests of nuclear weapons. The resulting technical challenges have been substantial. Whereas a nuclear test was in some sense the ultimate "peer review" of the performance of a particular NEP design, the cessation of nuclear testing necessitated a much greater reliance on both intralab and interlab expert peer review to identify potential problems with weapon designs and define the solution space. This report assesses the quality and effectiveness of peer review of designs, development plans, engineering and scientific activities, and priorities related to both nuclear and non-nuclear aspects of nuclear weapons, as well as incentives for effective peer review. It also explores how the evolving mission of the NNSA laboratories might impact peer review processes at the laboratories that relate to nuclear weapons.


Book Synopsis Peer Review and Design Competition in the NNSA National Security Laboratories by : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine

Download or read book Peer Review and Design Competition in the NNSA National Security Laboratories written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2016-01-07 with total page 85 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) is responsible for providing and maintaining the capabilities necessary to sustain a safe, secure, and reliable nuclear weapons stockpile for the nation and its allies. Major responsibility for meeting the NNSA missions falls to the three NNSA laboratories: Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), and Sandia National Laboratories (SNL). The NNSA National Security Laboratories contribute to that goal by maintaining the skills and capabilities necessary for stewardship of a reliable nuclear stockpile and also by maintaining a high level of technical credibility, which is a component of the nuclear deterrent. Since 1992 it has been U.S. policy not to conduct explosion tests of nuclear weapons. The resulting technical challenges have been substantial. Whereas a nuclear test was in some sense the ultimate "peer review" of the performance of a particular NEP design, the cessation of nuclear testing necessitated a much greater reliance on both intralab and interlab expert peer review to identify potential problems with weapon designs and define the solution space. This report assesses the quality and effectiveness of peer review of designs, development plans, engineering and scientific activities, and priorities related to both nuclear and non-nuclear aspects of nuclear weapons, as well as incentives for effective peer review. It also explores how the evolving mission of the NNSA laboratories might impact peer review processes at the laboratories that relate to nuclear weapons.

Nuclear Scholars Initiative

Nuclear Scholars Initiative

Author: Sarah Minot

Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield

Published: 2015-08-10

Total Pages: 269

ISBN-13: 1442241098

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Addressing an increasingly complex array of nuclear weapons challenges in the future will require talented young people with the necessary technical and policy expertise to contribute to sound decisionmaking on nuclear issues over time. To that end, the CSIS Project on Nuclear Issues (PONI) runs a yearly Nuclear Scholars Initiative for graduate students and young professionals. Those accepted into the program are hosted once per month at CSIS in Washington, DC, where they participate in daylong workshops with senior government officials and policy experts. Over the course of the six-month program, scholars are required to prepare a research paper. This volume is a collection of the 2014 papers from the Nuclear Scholars Initiative.


Book Synopsis Nuclear Scholars Initiative by : Sarah Minot

Download or read book Nuclear Scholars Initiative written by Sarah Minot and published by Rowman & Littlefield. This book was released on 2015-08-10 with total page 269 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Addressing an increasingly complex array of nuclear weapons challenges in the future will require talented young people with the necessary technical and policy expertise to contribute to sound decisionmaking on nuclear issues over time. To that end, the CSIS Project on Nuclear Issues (PONI) runs a yearly Nuclear Scholars Initiative for graduate students and young professionals. Those accepted into the program are hosted once per month at CSIS in Washington, DC, where they participate in daylong workshops with senior government officials and policy experts. Over the course of the six-month program, scholars are required to prepare a research paper. This volume is a collection of the 2014 papers from the Nuclear Scholars Initiative.

Science in the Age of Computer Simulation

Science in the Age of Computer Simulation

Author: Eric Winsberg

Publisher: University of Chicago Press

Published: 2010-10-15

Total Pages: 168

ISBN-13: 0226902056

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Computer simulation was first pioneered as a scientific tool in meteorology and nuclear physics in the period following World War II, but it has grown rapidly to become indispensible in a wide variety of scientific disciplines, including astrophysics, high-energy physics, climate science, engineering, ecology, and economics. Digital computer simulation helps study phenomena of great complexity, but how much do we know about the limits and possibilities of this new scientific practice? How do simulations compare to traditional experiments? And are they reliable? Eric Winsberg seeks to answer these questions in Science in the Age of Computer Simulation. Scrutinizing these issue with a philosophical lens, Winsberg explores the impact of simulation on such issues as the nature of scientific evidence; the role of values in science; the nature and role of fictions in science; and the relationship between simulation and experiment, theories and data, and theories at different levels of description. Science in the Age of Computer Simulation will transform many of the core issues in philosophy of science, as well as our basic understanding of the role of the digital computer in the sciences.


Book Synopsis Science in the Age of Computer Simulation by : Eric Winsberg

Download or read book Science in the Age of Computer Simulation written by Eric Winsberg and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2010-10-15 with total page 168 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Computer simulation was first pioneered as a scientific tool in meteorology and nuclear physics in the period following World War II, but it has grown rapidly to become indispensible in a wide variety of scientific disciplines, including astrophysics, high-energy physics, climate science, engineering, ecology, and economics. Digital computer simulation helps study phenomena of great complexity, but how much do we know about the limits and possibilities of this new scientific practice? How do simulations compare to traditional experiments? And are they reliable? Eric Winsberg seeks to answer these questions in Science in the Age of Computer Simulation. Scrutinizing these issue with a philosophical lens, Winsberg explores the impact of simulation on such issues as the nature of scientific evidence; the role of values in science; the nature and role of fictions in science; and the relationship between simulation and experiment, theories and data, and theories at different levels of description. Science in the Age of Computer Simulation will transform many of the core issues in philosophy of science, as well as our basic understanding of the role of the digital computer in the sciences.