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Exchange Rate Forecasting Techniques, Survey Data, and Implications for the Foreign Exchange Market

Author: International Monetary Fund

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 1990-05-01

Total Pages: 32

ISBN-13: 1451975007

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This paper examines the dynamics of the foreign exchange market. The first half addresses a number of key questions regarding the forecasts of future exchange rates made by market participants, by means of updated estimates using survey data. Here we follow most of the theoretical and empirical literature in acting as if all market participants share the same expectation. The second half then addresses the possibility of heterogeneous expectations, particularly the distinction between “chartists” and “fundamentalists,” and the implications for trading in the foreign exchange market and for the formation of speculative bubbles.

Book Synopsis Exchange Rate Forecasting Techniques, Survey Data, and Implications for the Foreign Exchange Market by : International Monetary Fund

Download or read book Exchange Rate Forecasting Techniques, Survey Data, and Implications for the Foreign Exchange Market written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1990-05-01 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the dynamics of the foreign exchange market. The first half addresses a number of key questions regarding the forecasts of future exchange rates made by market participants, by means of updated estimates using survey data. Here we follow most of the theoretical and empirical literature in acting as if all market participants share the same expectation. The second half then addresses the possibility of heterogeneous expectations, particularly the distinction between “chartists” and “fundamentalists,” and the implications for trading in the foreign exchange market and for the formation of speculative bubbles.

Foreign-Exchange-Rate Forecasting with Artificial Neural Networks

Author: Lean Yu

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2010-02-26

Total Pages: 323

ISBN-13: 038771720X

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This book focuses on forecasting foreign exchange rates via artificial neural networks (ANNs), creating and applying the highly useful computational techniques of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) to foreign-exchange rate forecasting. The result is an up-to-date review of the most recent research developments in forecasting foreign exchange rates coupled with a highly useful methodological approach to predicting rate changes in foreign currency exchanges.

Book Synopsis Foreign-Exchange-Rate Forecasting with Artificial Neural Networks by : Lean Yu

Download or read book Foreign-Exchange-Rate Forecasting with Artificial Neural Networks written by Lean Yu and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2010-02-26 with total page 323 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book focuses on forecasting foreign exchange rates via artificial neural networks (ANNs), creating and applying the highly useful computational techniques of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) to foreign-exchange rate forecasting. The result is an up-to-date review of the most recent research developments in forecasting foreign exchange rates coupled with a highly useful methodological approach to predicting rate changes in foreign currency exchanges.

Exchange Rate Forecasting Techniques, Survey Data, and Implications for the Foreign Exchange Market

Author: Jeffrey A. Frankel

Publisher:

Published: 1991

Total Pages: 46

ISBN-13:

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Book Synopsis Exchange Rate Forecasting Techniques, Survey Data, and Implications for the Foreign Exchange Market by : Jeffrey A. Frankel

Download or read book Exchange Rate Forecasting Techniques, Survey Data, and Implications for the Foreign Exchange Market written by Jeffrey A. Frankel and published by . This book was released on 1991 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Foreign Exchange Rates

Author: Arif Orçun Söylemez

Publisher: Routledge

Published: 2021-02-07

Total Pages: 83

ISBN-13: 1000357317

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Predicting foreign exchange rates has presented a long-standing challenge for economists. However, the recent advances in computational techniques, statistical methods, newer datasets on emerging market currencies, etc., offer some hope. While we are still unable to beat a driftless random walk model, there has been serious progress in the field. This book provides an in-depth assessment of the use of novel statistical approaches and machine learning tools in predicting foreign exchange rate movement. First, it offers a historical account of how exchange rate regimes have evolved over time, which is critical to understanding turning points in a historical time series. It then presents an overview of the previous attempts at modeling exchange rates, and how different methods fared during this process. At the core sections of the book, the author examines the time series characteristics of exchange rates and how contemporary statistics and machine learning can be useful in improving predictive power, compared to previous methods used. Exchange rate determination is an active research area, and this book will appeal to graduate-level students of international economics, international finance, open economy macroeconomics, and management. The book is written in a clear, engaging, and straightforward way, and will greatly improve access to this much-needed knowledge in the field.

Book Synopsis Foreign Exchange Rates by : Arif Orçun Söylemez

Download or read book Foreign Exchange Rates written by Arif Orçun Söylemez and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2021-02-07 with total page 83 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Predicting foreign exchange rates has presented a long-standing challenge for economists. However, the recent advances in computational techniques, statistical methods, newer datasets on emerging market currencies, etc., offer some hope. While we are still unable to beat a driftless random walk model, there has been serious progress in the field. This book provides an in-depth assessment of the use of novel statistical approaches and machine learning tools in predicting foreign exchange rate movement. First, it offers a historical account of how exchange rate regimes have evolved over time, which is critical to understanding turning points in a historical time series. It then presents an overview of the previous attempts at modeling exchange rates, and how different methods fared during this process. At the core sections of the book, the author examines the time series characteristics of exchange rates and how contemporary statistics and machine learning can be useful in improving predictive power, compared to previous methods used. Exchange rate determination is an active research area, and this book will appeal to graduate-level students of international economics, international finance, open economy macroeconomics, and management. The book is written in a clear, engaging, and straightforward way, and will greatly improve access to this much-needed knowledge in the field.

Exchange Rate Forecasting: Techniques and Applications

Author: I. Moosa

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2016-02-05

Total Pages: 420

ISBN-13: 0230379001

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Forecasting exchange rates is a variable that preoccupies economists, businesses and governments, being more critical to more people than any other variable. In Exchange Rate Forecasting the author sets out to provide a concise survey of the techniques of forecasting - bringing together the various forecasting methods and applying them to the exchange rate in a highly accessible and readable manner. Highly practical in approach, the book provides an understanding of the techniques of forecasting with an emphasis on its applications and use in business decision-making, such as hedging, speculation, investment, financing and capital budgeting. In addition, the author also considers recent developments in the field, notably neural networks and chaos, again, with easy-to-understand explanations of these "rocket science" areas. The practical approach to forecasting is also reflected in the number of examples that pepper the text, whilst descriptions of some of the software packages that are used in practice to generate forecasts are also provided.

Book Synopsis Exchange Rate Forecasting: Techniques and Applications by : I. Moosa

Download or read book Exchange Rate Forecasting: Techniques and Applications written by I. Moosa and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-02-05 with total page 420 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasting exchange rates is a variable that preoccupies economists, businesses and governments, being more critical to more people than any other variable. In Exchange Rate Forecasting the author sets out to provide a concise survey of the techniques of forecasting - bringing together the various forecasting methods and applying them to the exchange rate in a highly accessible and readable manner. Highly practical in approach, the book provides an understanding of the techniques of forecasting with an emphasis on its applications and use in business decision-making, such as hedging, speculation, investment, financing and capital budgeting. In addition, the author also considers recent developments in the field, notably neural networks and chaos, again, with easy-to-understand explanations of these "rocket science" areas. The practical approach to forecasting is also reflected in the number of examples that pepper the text, whilst descriptions of some of the software packages that are used in practice to generate forecasts are also provided.

Exchange Rate Economics

Author: Mr.Mark P. Taylor

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 1991-06-01

Total Pages: 61

ISBN-13: 1451964390

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We survey the literature on the two main views of exchange rate determination that have evolved since the early 1970s: the monetary approach to the exchange rate (in flex-price, sticky-price and real interest differential formulations) and the portfolio balance approach. We then go on to discuss the extant empirical evidence on these models and conclude by discussing how the future research strategy in the area of exchange rate determination is likely to develop. We also discuss the literature on foreign exchange market efficiency, on exchange rates and ‘news’ and on international parity conditions.

Book Synopsis Exchange Rate Economics by : Mr.Mark P. Taylor

Download or read book Exchange Rate Economics written by Mr.Mark P. Taylor and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1991-06-01 with total page 61 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We survey the literature on the two main views of exchange rate determination that have evolved since the early 1970s: the monetary approach to the exchange rate (in flex-price, sticky-price and real interest differential formulations) and the portfolio balance approach. We then go on to discuss the extant empirical evidence on these models and conclude by discussing how the future research strategy in the area of exchange rate determination is likely to develop. We also discuss the literature on foreign exchange market efficiency, on exchange rates and ‘news’ and on international parity conditions.

Exchange Rate Expectations

Author: International Monetary Fund

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 1990-06-01

Total Pages: 36

ISBN-13: 145197020X

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This paper presents a brief survey of the empirical literature on survey-based exchange rate expectations. The literature in general supports the presence of a non-zero risk premium and rejects the hypothesis of rational expectations. The crucial result is that, while short-run expectations tend to move away from some long-run “normal” values, long-run expectations tend to regress toward them. If this nature of short-run expectations increases the volatility of exchange rate movements, there may be a basis for some official measure to minimize short-run exchange rate movements.

Book Synopsis Exchange Rate Expectations by : International Monetary Fund

Download or read book Exchange Rate Expectations written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1990-06-01 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents a brief survey of the empirical literature on survey-based exchange rate expectations. The literature in general supports the presence of a non-zero risk premium and rejects the hypothesis of rational expectations. The crucial result is that, while short-run expectations tend to move away from some long-run “normal” values, long-run expectations tend to regress toward them. If this nature of short-run expectations increases the volatility of exchange rate movements, there may be a basis for some official measure to minimize short-run exchange rate movements.

Forecasting the exchange rate of currencies. A panel data approach

Author: Sajjad Hossine

Publisher: GRIN Verlag

Published: 2017-01-16

Total Pages: 9

ISBN-13: 3668380651

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Seminar paper from the year 2015 in the subject Business economics - Investment and Finance, grade: A, , course: International Financial Management, language: English, abstract: The exchange rate on a daily basis is an indispensable factor in the foreign exchange market as well as in international trade. Many traders make a profit based on the pip in the foreign exchange market. Moreover, inflation and deflation of a currency against another currency is the root of making a profit in the foreign exchange market. Even in the international trade many individual traders and multi-national corporations always carefully observes the fluctuation of the exchange rate in order to determine the exchange rate efficiently and accurately. Because the more accurate the forecasted exchange rate is, the higher the chance becomes to make a profit only by investing a little amount of money in the foreign exchange market. The exchange rate has also significant impact on the export, import, foreign direct investment etc. This paper pursues the goal to explain how an individual or an organization can formulate future exchange rate of any currency in an efficient and time effective way. To meet this demand, this paper utilizes the help of panel data and a regression model. As a sample, this paper considers USD/BDT for a forecast. It must be noted that, with different panel data of different currencies, the method will remain same if anyone wants to forecast exchange rates of different currencies.

Book Synopsis Forecasting the exchange rate of currencies. A panel data approach by : Sajjad Hossine

Download or read book Forecasting the exchange rate of currencies. A panel data approach written by Sajjad Hossine and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2017-01-16 with total page 9 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Seminar paper from the year 2015 in the subject Business economics - Investment and Finance, grade: A, , course: International Financial Management, language: English, abstract: The exchange rate on a daily basis is an indispensable factor in the foreign exchange market as well as in international trade. Many traders make a profit based on the pip in the foreign exchange market. Moreover, inflation and deflation of a currency against another currency is the root of making a profit in the foreign exchange market. Even in the international trade many individual traders and multi-national corporations always carefully observes the fluctuation of the exchange rate in order to determine the exchange rate efficiently and accurately. Because the more accurate the forecasted exchange rate is, the higher the chance becomes to make a profit only by investing a little amount of money in the foreign exchange market. The exchange rate has also significant impact on the export, import, foreign direct investment etc. This paper pursues the goal to explain how an individual or an organization can formulate future exchange rate of any currency in an efficient and time effective way. To meet this demand, this paper utilizes the help of panel data and a regression model. As a sample, this paper considers USD/BDT for a forecast. It must be noted that, with different panel data of different currencies, the method will remain same if anyone wants to forecast exchange rates of different currencies.

Exchange Rate Efficiency and the Behavior of International Asset Markets (Routledge Revivals)

Author: Kathryn Dominguez

Publisher: Routledge

Published: 2014-10-20

Total Pages: 122

ISBN-13: 1317559126

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This book, first published in 1992, examines the subject of foreign exchange market efficiency and, in particular, the effectiveness of central bank intervention in the market. This book is ideal for students of economics.

Book Synopsis Exchange Rate Efficiency and the Behavior of International Asset Markets (Routledge Revivals) by : Kathryn Dominguez

Download or read book Exchange Rate Efficiency and the Behavior of International Asset Markets (Routledge Revivals) written by Kathryn Dominguez and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2014-10-20 with total page 122 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book, first published in 1992, examines the subject of foreign exchange market efficiency and, in particular, the effectiveness of central bank intervention in the market. This book is ideal for students of economics.

Exchange Rate Economics

Author: Peter Isard

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 1995-09-28

Total Pages: 298

ISBN-13: 9780521466004

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This book describes and evaluates the literature on exchange rate economics. It provides a wide-ranging survey, with background on the history of international monetary regimes and the institutional characteristics of foreign exchange markets, an overview of the development of conceptual and empirical models of exchange rate behavior, and perspectives on the key issues that policymakers confront in deciding whether, and how, to try to stabilize exchange rates. The treatment of most topics is reasonably compact, with extensive references to the literature for those desiring to pursue individual topics further. The level of exposition is relatively easy to comprehend; the historical and institutional material (part I) and the discussion of policy issues (part III) contain no equations or technical notation, while the chapters on models of exchange rate behavior (part II) are written at a level intelligible to first-year graduate students or advanced undergraduates. The book will enlighten both students and policymakers, and should also serve as a valuable reference for many research economists.

Book Synopsis Exchange Rate Economics by : Peter Isard

Download or read book Exchange Rate Economics written by Peter Isard and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1995-09-28 with total page 298 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book describes and evaluates the literature on exchange rate economics. It provides a wide-ranging survey, with background on the history of international monetary regimes and the institutional characteristics of foreign exchange markets, an overview of the development of conceptual and empirical models of exchange rate behavior, and perspectives on the key issues that policymakers confront in deciding whether, and how, to try to stabilize exchange rates. The treatment of most topics is reasonably compact, with extensive references to the literature for those desiring to pursue individual topics further. The level of exposition is relatively easy to comprehend; the historical and institutional material (part I) and the discussion of policy issues (part III) contain no equations or technical notation, while the chapters on models of exchange rate behavior (part II) are written at a level intelligible to first-year graduate students or advanced undergraduates. The book will enlighten both students and policymakers, and should also serve as a valuable reference for many research economists.