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This paper explores the nexus between the financial cycle and business cycle in Brazil. Cycles are estimated using a variety of commonly-used statistical methods and with a small, semistructural model of the Brazilian economy. An advantage of using the model-based approach is that financial and business cycles can be jointly estimated, allowing information from all key economic relationships to be used in a consistent way. The results show that Brazil is now in the downturn phase of the financial cycle. Moreover, the results underscore the importance of macro-financial linkages and highlight risks to the recovery going forward.
Book Synopsis Financial and Business Cycles in Brazil by : Mr.Ivo Krznar
Download or read book Financial and Business Cycles in Brazil written by Mr.Ivo Krznar and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-01-24 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper explores the nexus between the financial cycle and business cycle in Brazil. Cycles are estimated using a variety of commonly-used statistical methods and with a small, semistructural model of the Brazilian economy. An advantage of using the model-based approach is that financial and business cycles can be jointly estimated, allowing information from all key economic relationships to be used in a consistent way. The results show that Brazil is now in the downturn phase of the financial cycle. Moreover, the results underscore the importance of macro-financial linkages and highlight risks to the recovery going forward.
This paper assesses the importance of financial market developments for the business cycle in Brazil. The results underscore the importance of macro-financial linkages and highlight risks to the recovery going forward. Although some of the rise in credit growth in Brazil can be attributed to financial deepening and rising income levels, it may have implications for economic activity going forward. Cross-country evidence suggests that periods of easy financial conditions can amplify economic fluctuations and possibly lead to adverse economic outcomes. To explore the nexus between the financial cycle and business cycle, cycles are estimated using a variety of commonly-used statistical methods and with a small, semi-structural model of the Brazilian economy. An advantage of using the model-based approach is that financial and business cycles can be jointly estimated, allowing information from all key economic relationships to be used in a consistent way. Financial sector developments are found to be an important source of macroeconomic fluctuations. Financial accelerator models highlight the role of credit and asset prices in shaping the business cycle.
Book Synopsis Brazil by : International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Download or read book Brazil written by International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-11-15 with total page 159 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper assesses the importance of financial market developments for the business cycle in Brazil. The results underscore the importance of macro-financial linkages and highlight risks to the recovery going forward. Although some of the rise in credit growth in Brazil can be attributed to financial deepening and rising income levels, it may have implications for economic activity going forward. Cross-country evidence suggests that periods of easy financial conditions can amplify economic fluctuations and possibly lead to adverse economic outcomes. To explore the nexus between the financial cycle and business cycle, cycles are estimated using a variety of commonly-used statistical methods and with a small, semi-structural model of the Brazilian economy. An advantage of using the model-based approach is that financial and business cycles can be jointly estimated, allowing information from all key economic relationships to be used in a consistent way. Financial sector developments are found to be an important source of macroeconomic fluctuations. Financial accelerator models highlight the role of credit and asset prices in shaping the business cycle.
This paper assesses the importance of financial market developments for the business cycle in Brazil. The results underscore the importance of macro-financial linkages and highlight risks to the recovery going forward. Although some of the rise in credit growth in Brazil can be attributed to financial deepening and rising income levels, it may have implications for economic activity going forward. Cross-country evidence suggests that periods of easy financial conditions can amplify economic fluctuations and possibly lead to adverse economic outcomes. To explore the nexus between the financial cycle and business cycle, cycles are estimated using a variety of commonly-used statistical methods and with a small, semi-structural model of the Brazilian economy. An advantage of using the model-based approach is that financial and business cycles can be jointly estimated, allowing information from all key economic relationships to be used in a consistent way. Financial sector developments are found to be an important source of macroeconomic fluctuations. Financial accelerator models highlight the role of credit and asset prices in shaping the business cycle.
Book Synopsis Brazil by : International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Download or read book Brazil written by International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-11-15 with total page 159 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper assesses the importance of financial market developments for the business cycle in Brazil. The results underscore the importance of macro-financial linkages and highlight risks to the recovery going forward. Although some of the rise in credit growth in Brazil can be attributed to financial deepening and rising income levels, it may have implications for economic activity going forward. Cross-country evidence suggests that periods of easy financial conditions can amplify economic fluctuations and possibly lead to adverse economic outcomes. To explore the nexus between the financial cycle and business cycle, cycles are estimated using a variety of commonly-used statistical methods and with a small, semi-structural model of the Brazilian economy. An advantage of using the model-based approach is that financial and business cycles can be jointly estimated, allowing information from all key economic relationships to be used in a consistent way. Financial sector developments are found to be an important source of macroeconomic fluctuations. Financial accelerator models highlight the role of credit and asset prices in shaping the business cycle.
This volume focuses on the analysis and measurement of business cycles in Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS). Divided into five parts, it begins with an overview of the main concepts and problems involved in monitoring and forecasting business cycles. Then it highlights the role of BRICS in the global economy and explores the interrelatedness of business cycles within BRICS. In turn, part two provides studies on the historical development of business cycles in the individual BRICS countries and describes the driving forces behind those cycles. Parts three and four present national business tendency surveys and composite cyclical indices for real-time monitoring and forecasting of various BRICS economies, while the final part discusses how the lessons learned in the BRICS countries can be used for the analysis of business cycles and their socio-political consequences in other emerging countries.
Book Synopsis Business Cycles in BRICS by : Sergey Smirnov
Download or read book Business Cycles in BRICS written by Sergey Smirnov and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-08-15 with total page 505 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume focuses on the analysis and measurement of business cycles in Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS). Divided into five parts, it begins with an overview of the main concepts and problems involved in monitoring and forecasting business cycles. Then it highlights the role of BRICS in the global economy and explores the interrelatedness of business cycles within BRICS. In turn, part two provides studies on the historical development of business cycles in the individual BRICS countries and describes the driving forces behind those cycles. Parts three and four present national business tendency surveys and composite cyclical indices for real-time monitoring and forecasting of various BRICS economies, while the final part discusses how the lessons learned in the BRICS countries can be used for the analysis of business cycles and their socio-political consequences in other emerging countries.
This paper explores the nexus between the financial cycle and business cycle in Brazil. Cycles are estimated using a variety of commonly-used statistical methods and with a small, semistructural model of the Brazilian economy. An advantage of using the model-based approach is that financial and business cycles can be jointly estimated, allowing information from all key economic relationships to be used in a consistent way. The results show that Brazil is now in the downturn phase of the financial cycle. Moreover, the results underscore the importance of macro-financial linkages and highlight risks to the recovery going forward.
Book Synopsis Financial and Business Cycles in Brazil by : Mr.Ivo Krznar
Download or read book Financial and Business Cycles in Brazil written by Mr.Ivo Krznar and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-01-27 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper explores the nexus between the financial cycle and business cycle in Brazil. Cycles are estimated using a variety of commonly-used statistical methods and with a small, semistructural model of the Brazilian economy. An advantage of using the model-based approach is that financial and business cycles can be jointly estimated, allowing information from all key economic relationships to be used in a consistent way. The results show that Brazil is now in the downturn phase of the financial cycle. Moreover, the results underscore the importance of macro-financial linkages and highlight risks to the recovery going forward.
This edited collection provides a thorough historical, statistical, and institutional description of the current Brazilian economy and the previous economic structure from which it is emerging. The contributions explore the institutional economic and cultural forces shaping the current development of the Brazilian economy and discuss how they will influence future progress. Together, the chapters form a picture of the international implications of Brazil’s emergence as a major world economic power. Topics covered include the growth and shrinkage of industry, the consumption boom and the financial crisis, sustainable financial growth and public debt management, the evolution of antitrust policy and the privatization of state-owned firms, and more. Academics and researchers of BRICS countries and Latin American and Caribbean studies will find these contributions a valuable addition to their research.
Book Synopsis The New Brazilian Economy by : Elias C. Grivoyannis
Download or read book The New Brazilian Economy written by Elias C. Grivoyannis and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-12-12 with total page 355 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This edited collection provides a thorough historical, statistical, and institutional description of the current Brazilian economy and the previous economic structure from which it is emerging. The contributions explore the institutional economic and cultural forces shaping the current development of the Brazilian economy and discuss how they will influence future progress. Together, the chapters form a picture of the international implications of Brazil’s emergence as a major world economic power. Topics covered include the growth and shrinkage of industry, the consumption boom and the financial crisis, sustainable financial growth and public debt management, the evolution of antitrust policy and the privatization of state-owned firms, and more. Academics and researchers of BRICS countries and Latin American and Caribbean studies will find these contributions a valuable addition to their research.
This paper analyses the extent to which financial integration impacts the manner in which terms of trade affect business cycles in emerging economies. Using a s mall open economy model, we show that as capital account openness increases in an economy that faces trade shocks, business cycle volatility reduces. For an economy with limited financial openness, and a relatively open trade account, a model with exogenous terms of trade shocks is able to replicate the features of the business cycle.
Book Synopsis Emerging Economy Business Cycles by : Rudrani Bhattacharya
Download or read book Emerging Economy Business Cycles written by Rudrani Bhattacharya and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-05-22 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyses the extent to which financial integration impacts the manner in which terms of trade affect business cycles in emerging economies. Using a s mall open economy model, we show that as capital account openness increases in an economy that faces trade shocks, business cycle volatility reduces. For an economy with limited financial openness, and a relatively open trade account, a model with exogenous terms of trade shocks is able to replicate the features of the business cycle.
This article tests if standard business cycle models can reliably reproduce aggregate Brazilian time series. The article first describes some features of the Brazilian data that the models are meant to reproduce. Then it describes a version of the standard business cycle model with indivisible labor, along with the cash-in-advance extension of that model, both of which assume that fluctuations in economic activity are caused only by shocks to technology. Some key parameters are estimated using the Generalized Method of Moments but others, such as taxes, by calibration, The fit of the standard models to the data is disappointing, but adding tax distortions to the cash in advance model is shown to significantly improve its ability to mimic some of the observations. However, a number of key stylized facts, such as the excess volatility of consumption, were not reproduced by any of the models studied.
Book Synopsis Real Business Cycles Models Applied to the Brazilian Economy by : Pedro C. Ferreira
Download or read book Real Business Cycles Models Applied to the Brazilian Economy written by Pedro C. Ferreira and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This article tests if standard business cycle models can reliably reproduce aggregate Brazilian time series. The article first describes some features of the Brazilian data that the models are meant to reproduce. Then it describes a version of the standard business cycle model with indivisible labor, along with the cash-in-advance extension of that model, both of which assume that fluctuations in economic activity are caused only by shocks to technology. Some key parameters are estimated using the Generalized Method of Moments but others, such as taxes, by calibration, The fit of the standard models to the data is disappointing, but adding tax distortions to the cash in advance model is shown to significantly improve its ability to mimic some of the observations. However, a number of key stylized facts, such as the excess volatility of consumption, were not reproduced by any of the models studied.
Book Synopsis Business Cycle Fluctuations in Brazil by : Roberto Ellery Júnior
Download or read book Business Cycle Fluctuations in Brazil written by Roberto Ellery Júnior and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
This paper studies the sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in developing countries using a structural VAR approach. Identification of the sources is achieved using long-run restrictions derived from a theoretical model of a small open economy encompassing a large number of macroeconomic paradigms; the short-run dynamics are unrestricted. This framework is applied to Brazil and Korea. The results confirm that supply shocks are the main source of GDP fluctuations, even in the short run. Aggregate demand shocks are shown to be important in the short run in Brazil, but not in Korea. External shocks explain a small fraction of the variance of output, whereas the real exchange rate is driven mainly by fiscal shocks. Nominal shocks appear to have little impact on output and the real exchange rate.
Book Synopsis The Sources of Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries by : Mr.Alexander W. Hoffmaister
Download or read book The Sources of Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries written by Mr.Alexander W. Hoffmaister and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1996-02-01 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies the sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in developing countries using a structural VAR approach. Identification of the sources is achieved using long-run restrictions derived from a theoretical model of a small open economy encompassing a large number of macroeconomic paradigms; the short-run dynamics are unrestricted. This framework is applied to Brazil and Korea. The results confirm that supply shocks are the main source of GDP fluctuations, even in the short run. Aggregate demand shocks are shown to be important in the short run in Brazil, but not in Korea. External shocks explain a small fraction of the variance of output, whereas the real exchange rate is driven mainly by fiscal shocks. Nominal shocks appear to have little impact on output and the real exchange rate.
