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This paper provides evidence of fiscal procyclicality, excessive deficits, distorted budget composition and poor compliance with fiscal rules in the euro area. Our analysis relies on real-time data for 19 countries participating in the euro area over 1999–2015. We look for, but do not find, conclusive evidence of bias in procedures in relation to country size. The paper also briefly reviews the literature on political economy factors and policy biases, and offers some reflections on the euro area architecture.
Book Synopsis Fiscal Politics in the Euro Area by : Luc Eyraud
Download or read book Fiscal Politics in the Euro Area written by Luc Eyraud and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-01-30 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides evidence of fiscal procyclicality, excessive deficits, distorted budget composition and poor compliance with fiscal rules in the euro area. Our analysis relies on real-time data for 19 countries participating in the euro area over 1999–2015. We look for, but do not find, conclusive evidence of bias in procedures in relation to country size. The paper also briefly reviews the literature on political economy factors and policy biases, and offers some reflections on the euro area architecture.
Two main themes of the book are that (1) politics can distort optimal fiscal policy through elections and through political fragmentation, and (2) rules and institutions can attenuate the negative effects of this dynamic. The book has three parts: part 1 (9 chapters) outlines the problems; part 2 (6 chapters) outlines how institutions and fiscal rules can offer solutions; and part 3 (4 chapters) discusses how multilevel governance frameworks can help.
Book Synopsis Fiscal Politics by : Vitor Gaspar
Download or read book Fiscal Politics written by Vitor Gaspar and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-04-07 with total page 548 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Two main themes of the book are that (1) politics can distort optimal fiscal policy through elections and through political fragmentation, and (2) rules and institutions can attenuate the negative effects of this dynamic. The book has three parts: part 1 (9 chapters) outlines the problems; part 2 (6 chapters) outlines how institutions and fiscal rules can offer solutions; and part 3 (4 chapters) discusses how multilevel governance frameworks can help.
This is on a highly topical issue and addresses a key policy issue for Europe—namely, reinforcing EMU institutional architecture along with the Banking Union. Some proposals have emerged in Europe, and it will be important to put out staff views on this issue. In that context, publication as an SDN is appropriate, given the high profile nature and relevance of the topic—much like the Banking Union paper done a few months ago.
Book Synopsis Toward A Fiscal Union for the Euro Area by : Céline Allard
Download or read book Toward A Fiscal Union for the Euro Area written by Céline Allard and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-09-25 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is on a highly topical issue and addresses a key policy issue for Europe—namely, reinforcing EMU institutional architecture along with the Banking Union. Some proposals have emerged in Europe, and it will be important to put out staff views on this issue. In that context, publication as an SDN is appropriate, given the high profile nature and relevance of the topic—much like the Banking Union paper done a few months ago.
Recoge: Introduction - 1. The Model - 2. Estimation - 3. Assessing the Role of Fiscal Policy - 4. Conclusion.
Book Synopsis Fiscal Policy in an Estimated Open-economy Model for the Euro Area by : Marco Ratto
Download or read book Fiscal Policy in an Estimated Open-economy Model for the Euro Area written by Marco Ratto and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 76 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recoge: Introduction - 1. The Model - 2. Estimation - 3. Assessing the Role of Fiscal Policy - 4. Conclusion.
The paper makes an analytical contribution to the revived discussion about the euro area’s institutional setup. After significant progress during the euro crisis, the drive to complete Europe’s Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) had stalled, and the way forward will benefit from an in-depth look at the conceptual issues raised by the evolution and architecture of Europe, and the tradeoffs involved. A thorough look at the underlying economic issues suggests that in the long run, EMU will benefit from progressing along three mutually supporting tracks: introduce more fiscal risk sharing, helping to make the sovereign “no bailout” rule credible; complementary financial sector reforms to delink sovereigns and banks; and more effective rules to discourage moral hazard. This evolution would ensure that financial markets provide incentives for fiscal discipline. Introducing more fiscal union comes with myriad legal, technical, operational, and political problems, raising questions well beyond the remit of economics. But without decisive progress to foster fiscal risk sharing, EMU will continue to face existential risks.
Book Synopsis Revisiting the Economic Case for Fiscal Union in the Euro Area by : Mr.Helge Berger
Download or read book Revisiting the Economic Case for Fiscal Union in the Euro Area written by Mr.Helge Berger and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-02-20 with total page 63 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper makes an analytical contribution to the revived discussion about the euro area’s institutional setup. After significant progress during the euro crisis, the drive to complete Europe’s Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) had stalled, and the way forward will benefit from an in-depth look at the conceptual issues raised by the evolution and architecture of Europe, and the tradeoffs involved. A thorough look at the underlying economic issues suggests that in the long run, EMU will benefit from progressing along three mutually supporting tracks: introduce more fiscal risk sharing, helping to make the sovereign “no bailout” rule credible; complementary financial sector reforms to delink sovereigns and banks; and more effective rules to discourage moral hazard. This evolution would ensure that financial markets provide incentives for fiscal discipline. Introducing more fiscal union comes with myriad legal, technical, operational, and political problems, raising questions well beyond the remit of economics. But without decisive progress to foster fiscal risk sharing, EMU will continue to face existential risks.
We estimate a panel VAR model that captures cross-country, dynamic interlinkages for 10 euro area countries using quarterly data for the period 1999-2016. Our analysis suggests that fiscal spillovers are significant and tend to be larger for countries with close trade and financial links as well, as for fiscal shocks originating from larger countries. The current account appears to be the main channel of transmission, although strong trade integration among countries in the euro area and spillback effects tend to zero-out the net trade impact in some cases. A subsample analysis shows that the effects of fiscal policy have changed over time, with larger estimated domestic multipliers and spillovers between 2011 and 2014.
Book Synopsis Fiscal Spillovers in the Euro Area: Letting the Data Speak by : Ms.Era Dabla-Norris
Download or read book Fiscal Spillovers in the Euro Area: Letting the Data Speak written by Ms.Era Dabla-Norris and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-11-15 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We estimate a panel VAR model that captures cross-country, dynamic interlinkages for 10 euro area countries using quarterly data for the period 1999-2016. Our analysis suggests that fiscal spillovers are significant and tend to be larger for countries with close trade and financial links as well, as for fiscal shocks originating from larger countries. The current account appears to be the main channel of transmission, although strong trade integration among countries in the euro area and spillback effects tend to zero-out the net trade impact in some cases. A subsample analysis shows that the effects of fiscal policy have changed over time, with larger estimated domestic multipliers and spillovers between 2011 and 2014.
Book Synopsis The Transition to EMU in the Maastricht Treaty by : Lorenzo Bini Smaghi
Download or read book The Transition to EMU in the Maastricht Treaty written by Lorenzo Bini Smaghi and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page 86 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
After strong growth in 2017 and early 2018, global economic activity slowed notably in the second half of last year, reflecting a confluence of factors affecting major economies. China’s growth declined following a combination of needed regulatory tightening to rein in shadow banking and an increase in trade tensions with the United States. The euro area economy lost more momentum than expected as consumer and business confidence weakened and car production in Germany was disrupted by the introduction of new emission standards; investment dropped in Italy as sovereign spreads widened; and external demand, especially from emerging Asia, softened. Elsewhere, natural disasters hurt activity in Japan. Trade tensions increasingly took a toll on business confidence and, so, financial market sentiment worsened, with financial conditions tightening for vulnerable emerging markets in the spring of 2018 and then in advanced economies later in the year, weighing on global demand. Conditions have eased in 2019 as the US Federal Reserve signaled a more accommodative monetary policy stance and markets became more optimistic about a US–China trade deal, but they remain slightly more restrictive than in the fall.
Book Synopsis World Economic Outlook, April 2019 by : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Download or read book World Economic Outlook, April 2019 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-04-09 with total page 216 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: After strong growth in 2017 and early 2018, global economic activity slowed notably in the second half of last year, reflecting a confluence of factors affecting major economies. China’s growth declined following a combination of needed regulatory tightening to rein in shadow banking and an increase in trade tensions with the United States. The euro area economy lost more momentum than expected as consumer and business confidence weakened and car production in Germany was disrupted by the introduction of new emission standards; investment dropped in Italy as sovereign spreads widened; and external demand, especially from emerging Asia, softened. Elsewhere, natural disasters hurt activity in Japan. Trade tensions increasingly took a toll on business confidence and, so, financial market sentiment worsened, with financial conditions tightening for vulnerable emerging markets in the spring of 2018 and then in advanced economies later in the year, weighing on global demand. Conditions have eased in 2019 as the US Federal Reserve signaled a more accommodative monetary policy stance and markets became more optimistic about a US–China trade deal, but they remain slightly more restrictive than in the fall.
It is rare for countries to give up their currencies and thus their ability to influence such critical aspects of their economies as interest and exchange rates. Yet ten years ago a number of European countries did exactly that when they adopted the euro. Despite some dissent, there were a number of arguments in favor of this policy change: it would facilitate exchange of goods, money, and people by decreasing costs; it would increase trade; and it would enhance efficiency and competitiveness at the international level. A decade is an ideal time frame over which to evaluate the success of the euro and whether it has lived up to expectations. To that aim, Europe and the Euro looks at a number of important issues, including the effects of the euro on reform of goods and labor markets; its influence on business cycles and trade among members; and whether the single currency has induced convergence or divergence in the economic performance of member countries. While adoption of the euro may not have met the expectations of its most optimistic proponents, the benefits have been many, and there is reason to believe that the euro is robust enough to survive recent economic shocks. This volume is an essential reference on the first ten years of the euro and the workings of a monetary union.
Book Synopsis Europe and the Euro by : Alberto Alesina
Download or read book Europe and the Euro written by Alberto Alesina and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2010-04-15 with total page 624 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It is rare for countries to give up their currencies and thus their ability to influence such critical aspects of their economies as interest and exchange rates. Yet ten years ago a number of European countries did exactly that when they adopted the euro. Despite some dissent, there were a number of arguments in favor of this policy change: it would facilitate exchange of goods, money, and people by decreasing costs; it would increase trade; and it would enhance efficiency and competitiveness at the international level. A decade is an ideal time frame over which to evaluate the success of the euro and whether it has lived up to expectations. To that aim, Europe and the Euro looks at a number of important issues, including the effects of the euro on reform of goods and labor markets; its influence on business cycles and trade among members; and whether the single currency has induced convergence or divergence in the economic performance of member countries. While adoption of the euro may not have met the expectations of its most optimistic proponents, the benefits have been many, and there is reason to believe that the euro is robust enough to survive recent economic shocks. This volume is an essential reference on the first ten years of the euro and the workings of a monetary union.
This book analyses the ongoing reform of the European economic union in the light of the new objective of ‘stability of the euro area as a whole’ in Article 136(3) TFEU. On the basis of the relevant legal sources, it qualifies this objective as the obligation to preserve the existence of the monetary union, the establishment of which was an EU goal laid down in Article 3(4) TEU. While to date the objective has been achieved through fiscal and macroeconomic consolidation in the member states and the activation of stabilisation mechanisms in cases of emergency, the book argues that full stability requires a better system of economic governance, either through a process of partial fiscal centralisation or the return to a more efficient and sustainable market discipline of public finances. It also analyses the concrete legal challenges these raise, including compliance with the conferral principle, the longstanding democratic deficit of the governance and the balance between financial solidarity and fiscal responsibility.
Book Synopsis The Pursuit of Stability of the Euro Area as a Whole by : Luca Lionello
Download or read book The Pursuit of Stability of the Euro Area as a Whole written by Luca Lionello and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2019-10-14 with total page 243 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book analyses the ongoing reform of the European economic union in the light of the new objective of ‘stability of the euro area as a whole’ in Article 136(3) TFEU. On the basis of the relevant legal sources, it qualifies this objective as the obligation to preserve the existence of the monetary union, the establishment of which was an EU goal laid down in Article 3(4) TEU. While to date the objective has been achieved through fiscal and macroeconomic consolidation in the member states and the activation of stabilisation mechanisms in cases of emergency, the book argues that full stability requires a better system of economic governance, either through a process of partial fiscal centralisation or the return to a more efficient and sustainable market discipline of public finances. It also analyses the concrete legal challenges these raise, including compliance with the conferral principle, the longstanding democratic deficit of the governance and the balance between financial solidarity and fiscal responsibility.
