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This overview of issues that regulators should be aware of in demand forecasting discusses challenges that come with the decision to privatize transport, the perverse incentives introduced when privatization teams use strategic demand forecasts to evaluate assets, the most common problems with demand forecasting, the reasons that demand forecasting matters, and how to think about demand forecasting in the context of regulation.
Book Synopsis Forecasting the Demand for Privatized Transport by : Lourdes Trujillo
Download or read book Forecasting the Demand for Privatized Transport written by Lourdes Trujillo and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2000 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This overview of issues that regulators should be aware of in demand forecasting discusses challenges that come with the decision to privatize transport, the perverse incentives introduced when privatization teams use strategic demand forecasts to evaluate assets, the most common problems with demand forecasting, the reasons that demand forecasting matters, and how to think about demand forecasting in the context of regulation.
This overview of issues that regulators should be aware of in demand forecasting discusses challenges that come with the decision to privatize transport, the perverse incentives introduced when privatization teams use strategic demand forecasts to evaluate assets, the most common problems with demand forecasting, the reasons that demand forecasting matters, and how to think about demand forecasting in the context of regulation. Forecasting has long been a challenge and will remain so for the foreseeable future. But the analytical instruments and data processing capabilities available through the latest technology and software should allow much better forecasting than transport ministries or regulatory agencies typically observe. Privatization brings new needs for demand forecasting. More attention is paid to risk under privatization than when investments are publicly financed. And regulators must be able to judge traffic studies done by operators and to learn what strategic behavior influenced these studies. Many governments and regulators avoid good demand modeling out of lack of conviction that theory and models can do better than the "old hands" of the sector. This is dangerous when privatization changes the nature of business. For projects amounting to investments of $100-200 million, a cost of $100,000-200,000 is not a reason to reject a reasonable modeling effort. And some private forecasting firms are willing to sell guarantees or insurance with their forecasts to cover significant gaps between forecasts and reality. This paper - a product of the Governance, Regulation, and Finance Division, World Bank Institute - is part of a larger effort in the institute to increase understanding of infrastructure regulation.
Book Synopsis Forecasting the Demand for Privatized Transport by : Lourdes Trujillo
Download or read book Forecasting the Demand for Privatized Transport written by Lourdes Trujillo and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This overview of issues that regulators should be aware of in demand forecasting discusses challenges that come with the decision to privatize transport, the perverse incentives introduced when privatization teams use strategic demand forecasts to evaluate assets, the most common problems with demand forecasting, the reasons that demand forecasting matters, and how to think about demand forecasting in the context of regulation. Forecasting has long been a challenge and will remain so for the foreseeable future. But the analytical instruments and data processing capabilities available through the latest technology and software should allow much better forecasting than transport ministries or regulatory agencies typically observe. Privatization brings new needs for demand forecasting. More attention is paid to risk under privatization than when investments are publicly financed. And regulators must be able to judge traffic studies done by operators and to learn what strategic behavior influenced these studies. Many governments and regulators avoid good demand modeling out of lack of conviction that theory and models can do better than the "old hands" of the sector. This is dangerous when privatization changes the nature of business. For projects amounting to investments of $100-200 million, a cost of $100,000-200,000 is not a reason to reject a reasonable modeling effort. And some private forecasting firms are willing to sell guarantees or insurance with their forecasts to cover significant gaps between forecasts and reality. This paper - a product of the Governance, Regulation, and Finance Division, World Bank Institute - is part of a larger effort in the institute to increase understanding of infrastructure regulation.
Demand and revenue forecasting for transport concessions has an inconsistent track record. There are several reasons for this: a possible optimism bias, the inherent uncertainty in any forecast, limited data and a poor choice of modelling tools. Therefore any better approach must acknowledge these constraints from the outset and be adapted to deal with revenue risk. This book addresses these issues on the basis of 20 years of international experience producing Traffic and Revenue projections for a range of transport concessions: Toll Roads, Managed Lanes, LRT, BRT, Metro and Rail projects with involvement of the private sector. It includes an additional chapter on Congestion Charging. The book is divided into three parts. Part I covers the context for the participation of the private sector and the requirements posed for demand forecasting. Part II is more technical and describes the strengths and limitations of the modelling tools used in both conventional and Traffic and Revenue forecasting models; it deals with issues like induced traffic, destination, mode and time of travel choice and, of course, discusses assignment in detail; willingness to pay is central to this part. Part III covers the practice of producing forecasts for different types of concessions: sound assumptions, modelling price and means of payment, growth models, treatment of congestion and travel time reliability, optimal pricing, annualisation, inflation and tariff escalation. This part also deals with the critical issue of future uncertainty with suggestions for peer reviews, sensitivity test, risk analysis and scenario planning. The book should be of interest to professionals working in procuring authorities preparing a transport concession, consortia bidding for such projects and financial specialists seeking to get a better understanding of the techniques used for Traffic and Revenue forecasting. Planners developing projects where price and revenue risk are important will also gain useful insights. The text contains a large number of tables and figures, all in colour, and suggestions on writing a good Final Report. A website, www.bettertandr.com, complements the book. About the author Dr. Luis (Pilo) Willumsen has 15 years of experience in transport teaching and research plus two decades producing traffic and revenue projections for more than 50 different private sector projects in over 30 countries. He is co-author of Modelling Transport, a Wiley text describing the state of the art in the field and now in its fourth edition; he has also made some helpful contributions to modelling and forecasting techniques. He is currently an independent consultant and a Visiting Professor at University College London.
Book Synopsis Better Traffic and Revenue Forecasting by : Luis G. Willumsen
Download or read book Better Traffic and Revenue Forecasting written by Luis G. Willumsen and published by . This book was released on 2014-07-26 with total page 215 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Demand and revenue forecasting for transport concessions has an inconsistent track record. There are several reasons for this: a possible optimism bias, the inherent uncertainty in any forecast, limited data and a poor choice of modelling tools. Therefore any better approach must acknowledge these constraints from the outset and be adapted to deal with revenue risk. This book addresses these issues on the basis of 20 years of international experience producing Traffic and Revenue projections for a range of transport concessions: Toll Roads, Managed Lanes, LRT, BRT, Metro and Rail projects with involvement of the private sector. It includes an additional chapter on Congestion Charging. The book is divided into three parts. Part I covers the context for the participation of the private sector and the requirements posed for demand forecasting. Part II is more technical and describes the strengths and limitations of the modelling tools used in both conventional and Traffic and Revenue forecasting models; it deals with issues like induced traffic, destination, mode and time of travel choice and, of course, discusses assignment in detail; willingness to pay is central to this part. Part III covers the practice of producing forecasts for different types of concessions: sound assumptions, modelling price and means of payment, growth models, treatment of congestion and travel time reliability, optimal pricing, annualisation, inflation and tariff escalation. This part also deals with the critical issue of future uncertainty with suggestions for peer reviews, sensitivity test, risk analysis and scenario planning. The book should be of interest to professionals working in procuring authorities preparing a transport concession, consortia bidding for such projects and financial specialists seeking to get a better understanding of the techniques used for Traffic and Revenue forecasting. Planners developing projects where price and revenue risk are important will also gain useful insights. The text contains a large number of tables and figures, all in colour, and suggestions on writing a good Final Report. A website, www.bettertandr.com, complements the book. About the author Dr. Luis (Pilo) Willumsen has 15 years of experience in transport teaching and research plus two decades producing traffic and revenue projections for more than 50 different private sector projects in over 30 countries. He is co-author of Modelling Transport, a Wiley text describing the state of the art in the field and now in its fourth edition; he has also made some helpful contributions to modelling and forecasting techniques. He is currently an independent consultant and a Visiting Professor at University College London.
Modeling of Transport Demand explains the mechanisms of transport demand, from analysis to calculation and forecasting. Packed with strategies for forecasting future demand for all transport modes, the book helps readers assess the validity and accuracy of demand forecasts. Forecasting and evaluating transport demand is an essential task of transport professionals and researchers that affects the design, extension, operation, and maintenance of all transport infrastructures. Accurate demand forecasts are necessary for companies and government entities when planning future fleet size, human resource needs, revenues, expenses, and budgets. The operational and planning skills provided in Modeling of Transport Demand help readers solve the problems they face on a daily basis. Modeling of Transport Demand is written for researchers, professionals, undergraduate and graduate students at every stage in their careers, from novice to expert. The book assists those tasked with constructing qualitative models (based on executive judgment, Delphi, scenario writing, survey methods) or quantitative ones (based on statistical, time series, econometric, gravity, artificial neural network, and fuzzy methods) in choosing the most suitable solution for all types of transport applications. Presents the most recent and relevant findings and research - both at theoretical and practical levels - of transport demand Provides a theoretical analysis and formulations that are clearly presented for ease of understanding Covers analysis for all modes of transportation Includes case studies that present the most appropriate formulas and methods for finding solutions and evaluating results
Book Synopsis Modeling of Transport Demand by : V.A Profillidis
Download or read book Modeling of Transport Demand written by V.A Profillidis and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2018-10-23 with total page 500 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Modeling of Transport Demand explains the mechanisms of transport demand, from analysis to calculation and forecasting. Packed with strategies for forecasting future demand for all transport modes, the book helps readers assess the validity and accuracy of demand forecasts. Forecasting and evaluating transport demand is an essential task of transport professionals and researchers that affects the design, extension, operation, and maintenance of all transport infrastructures. Accurate demand forecasts are necessary for companies and government entities when planning future fleet size, human resource needs, revenues, expenses, and budgets. The operational and planning skills provided in Modeling of Transport Demand help readers solve the problems they face on a daily basis. Modeling of Transport Demand is written for researchers, professionals, undergraduate and graduate students at every stage in their careers, from novice to expert. The book assists those tasked with constructing qualitative models (based on executive judgment, Delphi, scenario writing, survey methods) or quantitative ones (based on statistical, time series, econometric, gravity, artificial neural network, and fuzzy methods) in choosing the most suitable solution for all types of transport applications. Presents the most recent and relevant findings and research - both at theoretical and practical levels - of transport demand Provides a theoretical analysis and formulations that are clearly presented for ease of understanding Covers analysis for all modes of transportation Includes case studies that present the most appropriate formulas and methods for finding solutions and evaluating results
" TRB's second Strategic Highway Research Program (SHRP 2) Report S2-C20-RR-1: Freight Demand Modeling and Data Improvement documents the state of the practice for freight demand modeling. The report also explores the fundamental changes in freight modeling, and data and data collection that could help public and private sector decision-makers make better and more informed decisions. SHRP 2 Capacity Project C20, which produced Report S2-C20-RR-1, also produced the following items: A Freight Demand Modeling and Data Improvement Strategic Plan, which outlines seven strategic objectives that are designed to serve as the basis for future innovation in freight travel demand forecasting and data, and to guide both near- and long-term implementation: A speaker's kit, which is intended to be a "starter" set of materials for use in presenting the freight modeling and data improvement strategic plan to a group of interested professionals; and; A 2010 Innovations in Freight Demand Modeling and Data Symposium " -- publisher's description
Book Synopsis Freight Demand Modeling and Data Improvement by : Keith M. Chase
Download or read book Freight Demand Modeling and Data Improvement written by Keith M. Chase and published by Transportation Research Board. This book was released on 2013 with total page 90 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: " TRB's second Strategic Highway Research Program (SHRP 2) Report S2-C20-RR-1: Freight Demand Modeling and Data Improvement documents the state of the practice for freight demand modeling. The report also explores the fundamental changes in freight modeling, and data and data collection that could help public and private sector decision-makers make better and more informed decisions. SHRP 2 Capacity Project C20, which produced Report S2-C20-RR-1, also produced the following items: A Freight Demand Modeling and Data Improvement Strategic Plan, which outlines seven strategic objectives that are designed to serve as the basis for future innovation in freight travel demand forecasting and data, and to guide both near- and long-term implementation: A speaker's kit, which is intended to be a "starter" set of materials for use in presenting the freight modeling and data improvement strategic plan to a group of interested professionals; and; A 2010 Innovations in Freight Demand Modeling and Data Symposium " -- publisher's description
This timely new edition of Kenneth A. Small’s seminal textbook Urban Transportation Economics, co-authored with Erik T. Verhoef, has been fully updated, covering new areas such as parking policies, reliability of travel times, and the privatization of transportation services, as well as updated treatments of congestion modelling, environmental costs, and transit subsidies. Rigorous in approach and making use of real-world data and econometric techniques, it contains case studies from a range of countries including congestion charging in Norway, Singapore and the UK, light rail in the Netherlands and freeway tolls in the US. Small and Verhoef cover all basic topics needed for any application of economics to transportation: forecasting the demand for transportation services under alternative policies measuring all the costs including those incurred by users setting prices under practical constraints choosing and evaluating investments in basic facilities designing ways in which the private and public sectors interact to provide services. This book will be of great interest to students with basic calculus and some knowledge of economic theory who are engaged with transportation economics, planning and, or engineering, travel demand analysis, and many related fields. It will also be essential reading for researchers in any aspect of urban transportation.
Book Synopsis The Economics of Urban Transportation by : Kenneth A. Small
Download or read book The Economics of Urban Transportation written by Kenneth A. Small and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2007-10-18 with total page 293 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This timely new edition of Kenneth A. Small’s seminal textbook Urban Transportation Economics, co-authored with Erik T. Verhoef, has been fully updated, covering new areas such as parking policies, reliability of travel times, and the privatization of transportation services, as well as updated treatments of congestion modelling, environmental costs, and transit subsidies. Rigorous in approach and making use of real-world data and econometric techniques, it contains case studies from a range of countries including congestion charging in Norway, Singapore and the UK, light rail in the Netherlands and freeway tolls in the US. Small and Verhoef cover all basic topics needed for any application of economics to transportation: forecasting the demand for transportation services under alternative policies measuring all the costs including those incurred by users setting prices under practical constraints choosing and evaluating investments in basic facilities designing ways in which the private and public sectors interact to provide services. This book will be of great interest to students with basic calculus and some knowledge of economic theory who are engaged with transportation economics, planning and, or engineering, travel demand analysis, and many related fields. It will also be essential reading for researchers in any aspect of urban transportation.
Capacity design is a critical part of any rail and bus service project. In the case of rail services, it influences the overall cost of the project, given that size of capacity impacts on the size and design of the various train stations, the type of signalling systems to be used, and the size of the train depot. On the other hand, capacity design on bus services enjoys more flexibility. Specifically, capacity on a given bus route could be dynamically adjusted to tailor to different demand level at different times of the day through the deployment of either single deck or double decker buses. More importantly, size of bus stops is usually standardized across the city except for those in high demand areas. Hence, the problem of capacity design is a more intricate one for rail compared to bus services since it is impossible to dynamically modulate rail capacity except for increasing the speed and frequency of train services. Once designed, capacity on rail services constrains the number of carriages on each train given the size of the stations and constitutes a major source of inflexibility in rail system design and operation. While increasing speed and frequency of trains could help modulate capacity demand in an undersized system, safety of passengers and the need for greater maintenance for overused braking systems are serious concerns. Thus, capacity design or demand forecasting are especially critical for rail services. But how do we forecast current and future demand for rail services along a route? Size of population along the rail corridor is one important factor. However, considering that provision of rail services would displace users from other modes of transportation such as buses, taxis and private cars, demand forecasting becomes a nebulous art. Estimating the size of the populace that would switch to rail services involves a mixture of correlation analysis and system overdesign. Specifically, correlation analysis involves using a population level estimate of the proportion of people that would switch from individual modes of transportation to rail services, while system overdesign involves an overdesign of rail capacity by a multiplied factor. While the above approaches would provide a coarse estimate of capacity needed, use of population level matrixes for estimating the number of people switching to rail transport obviate the particular socioeconomic factors that impact on a specific locality. For example, lack of direct bus services to specific areas of a city providing employment might have prompted the use of private vehicles. But provision of a direct rail service to an industrial zone could entice more users to switch to rail public transportation especially under the context of high maintenance and usage costs of private vehicles. Hence, capacity forecast depends on a multitude of factors, most of which finicky in estimation, but which nevertheless critically impact on overall capacity needed. Demand forecast remained difficult for both rail and bus service. But, in the case of buses, ability to modulate capacity through provision of more capacity in double decker buses per unit time would help ameliorate the negative impact of any shortfall in demand forecast. The same is not true for rail services, however. But, certain amount of system overdesign such as provision of one more train carriage might help alleviate unanticipated stress on the rail system from oversubscribed demand. Interested readers may want to further develop the ideas described herein as well as expand on them.
Book Synopsis Demand Forecasting for Rail and Bus Services in a City by : Wenfa Ng
Download or read book Demand Forecasting for Rail and Bus Services in a City written by Wenfa Ng and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Capacity design is a critical part of any rail and bus service project. In the case of rail services, it influences the overall cost of the project, given that size of capacity impacts on the size and design of the various train stations, the type of signalling systems to be used, and the size of the train depot. On the other hand, capacity design on bus services enjoys more flexibility. Specifically, capacity on a given bus route could be dynamically adjusted to tailor to different demand level at different times of the day through the deployment of either single deck or double decker buses. More importantly, size of bus stops is usually standardized across the city except for those in high demand areas. Hence, the problem of capacity design is a more intricate one for rail compared to bus services since it is impossible to dynamically modulate rail capacity except for increasing the speed and frequency of train services. Once designed, capacity on rail services constrains the number of carriages on each train given the size of the stations and constitutes a major source of inflexibility in rail system design and operation. While increasing speed and frequency of trains could help modulate capacity demand in an undersized system, safety of passengers and the need for greater maintenance for overused braking systems are serious concerns. Thus, capacity design or demand forecasting are especially critical for rail services. But how do we forecast current and future demand for rail services along a route? Size of population along the rail corridor is one important factor. However, considering that provision of rail services would displace users from other modes of transportation such as buses, taxis and private cars, demand forecasting becomes a nebulous art. Estimating the size of the populace that would switch to rail services involves a mixture of correlation analysis and system overdesign. Specifically, correlation analysis involves using a population level estimate of the proportion of people that would switch from individual modes of transportation to rail services, while system overdesign involves an overdesign of rail capacity by a multiplied factor. While the above approaches would provide a coarse estimate of capacity needed, use of population level matrixes for estimating the number of people switching to rail transport obviate the particular socioeconomic factors that impact on a specific locality. For example, lack of direct bus services to specific areas of a city providing employment might have prompted the use of private vehicles. But provision of a direct rail service to an industrial zone could entice more users to switch to rail public transportation especially under the context of high maintenance and usage costs of private vehicles. Hence, capacity forecast depends on a multitude of factors, most of which finicky in estimation, but which nevertheless critically impact on overall capacity needed. Demand forecast remained difficult for both rail and bus service. But, in the case of buses, ability to modulate capacity through provision of more capacity in double decker buses per unit time would help ameliorate the negative impact of any shortfall in demand forecast. The same is not true for rail services, however. But, certain amount of system overdesign such as provision of one more train carriage might help alleviate unanticipated stress on the rail system from oversubscribed demand. Interested readers may want to further develop the ideas described herein as well as expand on them.
In the last decade many countries turned to private sources to provide services formerly offered by public agencies. Europeans, particularly the British and the French, were leaders in this movement. Developing countries also experimented extensively with privatization in the 1980s, with varying degrees of success. Because governments around the world are heavily involved in transportation, it is a natural focus of privatization experiments and in many ways has been at the cutting edge. Going Private examines the diverse privatization experiences of transportation services and facilities. Cases are drawn from the United States, Asia, Europe, and Latin America. Since almost every country has experimented to some degree with highway and bus privatization, the authors focus particularly on these services, although they also discuss urban rail transit and airports. Highways and buses, they explain, encompass all three of the most common and basic forms of privatization: the sale of an existing state-owned enterprise; use of private, rather than public, financing and management for new infrastructure development; and contracting out to private vendors public services previously provided by government employees. After thoroughly examining these services and discussing the motives for, and objections to, privatization, the authors look at the prospects for privatization in other sectors and industries. They assess those circumstances in which privatization is most likely to succeed and those in which it is most likely to fail, for political as well as economic reasons. The authors conclude that privatization involves many political and social as well as economic dimensions. Privatization is usually not simply a matter of efficiency improvements or capital augmentation but also involves such deeply imbedded societal concerns as equity, income transfers, environmental problems, and attitudes toward taxation and the role of government.
Book Synopsis Going Private by : Jose Gomez-Ibanez
Download or read book Going Private written by Jose Gomez-Ibanez and published by Brookings Institution Press. This book was released on 2011-10-01 with total page 325 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the last decade many countries turned to private sources to provide services formerly offered by public agencies. Europeans, particularly the British and the French, were leaders in this movement. Developing countries also experimented extensively with privatization in the 1980s, with varying degrees of success. Because governments around the world are heavily involved in transportation, it is a natural focus of privatization experiments and in many ways has been at the cutting edge. Going Private examines the diverse privatization experiences of transportation services and facilities. Cases are drawn from the United States, Asia, Europe, and Latin America. Since almost every country has experimented to some degree with highway and bus privatization, the authors focus particularly on these services, although they also discuss urban rail transit and airports. Highways and buses, they explain, encompass all three of the most common and basic forms of privatization: the sale of an existing state-owned enterprise; use of private, rather than public, financing and management for new infrastructure development; and contracting out to private vendors public services previously provided by government employees. After thoroughly examining these services and discussing the motives for, and objections to, privatization, the authors look at the prospects for privatization in other sectors and industries. They assess those circumstances in which privatization is most likely to succeed and those in which it is most likely to fail, for political as well as economic reasons. The authors conclude that privatization involves many political and social as well as economic dimensions. Privatization is usually not simply a matter of efficiency improvements or capital augmentation but also involves such deeply imbedded societal concerns as equity, income transfers, environmental problems, and attitudes toward taxation and the role of government.
Book Synopsis A Guidebook for Forecasting Freight Transportation Demand by : National Cooperative Highway Research Program
Download or read book A Guidebook for Forecasting Freight Transportation Demand written by National Cooperative Highway Research Program and published by Transportation Research Board. This book was released on 1997 with total page 176 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
The 1990s saw an increase in the liberalisation of transport policies and a strengthening of the role of private operators and investors in transport infrastructure worldwide. The search for sustained improvement in efficiency is probably secondary to the need to find additional financing, but it is improvement in services that is at the core of the new role of the government in transport. Governments must now become fair economic regulators of many of the privately operated transport services and infrastructures. This book examines the major challenges that governments are likely to face in taking on their new role in transport.
Book Synopsis Privatization and Regulation of Transport Infrastructure by : Antonio Estache
Download or read book Privatization and Regulation of Transport Infrastructure written by Antonio Estache and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2000-01-01 with total page 324 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The 1990s saw an increase in the liberalisation of transport policies and a strengthening of the role of private operators and investors in transport infrastructure worldwide. The search for sustained improvement in efficiency is probably secondary to the need to find additional financing, but it is improvement in services that is at the core of the new role of the government in transport. Governments must now become fair economic regulators of many of the privately operated transport services and infrastructures. This book examines the major challenges that governments are likely to face in taking on their new role in transport.
