How to Evaluate GDP-Linked Warrants: Price and Repayment Capacity

How to Evaluate GDP-Linked Warrants: Price and Repayment Capacity

Author: Ken Miyajima

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2006-03

Total Pages: 42

ISBN-13:

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Following a brief review of the recent history of GDP-linked instruments, this paper proposes a set of tools to examine the quantitative properties of GDP-linked warrants. It argues that trigger conditions should be clearly identifiable and payment amounts easily calculable. Based on a design that includes these features and historical data for the main EMBI countries, the paper provides an assessment of the issuer's capacity to service GDP-linked warrants, comparing payments with tax revenues stemming from contemporaneous growth. The price of the GDP-linked warrants are then estimated from the point of view of both domestic and foreign investors.


Book Synopsis How to Evaluate GDP-Linked Warrants: Price and Repayment Capacity by : Ken Miyajima

Download or read book How to Evaluate GDP-Linked Warrants: Price and Repayment Capacity written by Ken Miyajima and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2006-03 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Following a brief review of the recent history of GDP-linked instruments, this paper proposes a set of tools to examine the quantitative properties of GDP-linked warrants. It argues that trigger conditions should be clearly identifiable and payment amounts easily calculable. Based on a design that includes these features and historical data for the main EMBI countries, the paper provides an assessment of the issuer's capacity to service GDP-linked warrants, comparing payments with tax revenues stemming from contemporaneous growth. The price of the GDP-linked warrants are then estimated from the point of view of both domestic and foreign investors.

Boosting Fiscal Space

Boosting Fiscal Space

Author: Mr.Jonathan David Ostry

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2018-03-14

Total Pages: 47

ISBN-13: 1484347153

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Can debt management policy provide a way to increase fiscal space for a given path of primary fiscal balances? This note explores the role of two such policies: issuance of state-contingent debt; and issuance of longer maturity debt. New analytical models determine the debt limit and the default risk under uncertainty, and undertake numerical simulations to gauge the practical significance of the effect of debt management policies on fiscal space. The results suggest that, by managing debt along these two dimensions, economically salient gains in fiscal space are plausible for advanced and emerging markets.


Book Synopsis Boosting Fiscal Space by : Mr.Jonathan David Ostry

Download or read book Boosting Fiscal Space written by Mr.Jonathan David Ostry and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-03-14 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Can debt management policy provide a way to increase fiscal space for a given path of primary fiscal balances? This note explores the role of two such policies: issuance of state-contingent debt; and issuance of longer maturity debt. New analytical models determine the debt limit and the default risk under uncertainty, and undertake numerical simulations to gauge the practical significance of the effect of debt management policies on fiscal space. The results suggest that, by managing debt along these two dimensions, economically salient gains in fiscal space are plausible for advanced and emerging markets.

The $13 Trillion Question

The $13 Trillion Question

Author: David Wessel

Publisher: Brookings Institution Press

Published: 2015-11-24

Total Pages: 178

ISBN-13: 0815727062

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The underexamined art and science of managing the federal government's huge debt. Everyone talks about the size of the U.S. national debt, now at $13 trillion and climbing, but few talk about how the U.S. Treasury does the borrowing—even though it is one of the world's largest borrowers. Everyone from bond traders to the home-buying public is affected by the Treasury's decisions about whether to borrow short or long term and what types of bonds to sell to investors. What is the best way for the Treasury to finance the government's huge debt? Harvard's Robin Greenwood, Sam Hanson, Joshua Rudolph, and Larry Summers argue that the Treasury could save taxpayers money and help the economy by borrowing more short term and less long term. They also argue that the Treasury and the Federal Reserve made a huge mistake in recent years by rowing in opposite directions: while the Fed was buying long-term bonds to push investors into other assets, the Treasury was doing the opposite—selling investors more long-term bonds. This book includes responses from a variety of public and private sector experts on how the Treasury does its borrowing, some of whom have criticized the way the Treasury has been managing its borrowing.


Book Synopsis The $13 Trillion Question by : David Wessel

Download or read book The $13 Trillion Question written by David Wessel and published by Brookings Institution Press. This book was released on 2015-11-24 with total page 178 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The underexamined art and science of managing the federal government's huge debt. Everyone talks about the size of the U.S. national debt, now at $13 trillion and climbing, but few talk about how the U.S. Treasury does the borrowing—even though it is one of the world's largest borrowers. Everyone from bond traders to the home-buying public is affected by the Treasury's decisions about whether to borrow short or long term and what types of bonds to sell to investors. What is the best way for the Treasury to finance the government's huge debt? Harvard's Robin Greenwood, Sam Hanson, Joshua Rudolph, and Larry Summers argue that the Treasury could save taxpayers money and help the economy by borrowing more short term and less long term. They also argue that the Treasury and the Federal Reserve made a huge mistake in recent years by rowing in opposite directions: while the Fed was buying long-term bonds to push investors into other assets, the Treasury was doing the opposite—selling investors more long-term bonds. This book includes responses from a variety of public and private sector experts on how the Treasury does its borrowing, some of whom have criticized the way the Treasury has been managing its borrowing.

Boosting Fiscal Space

Boosting Fiscal Space

Author: Mr.Jonathan David Ostry

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2018-03-14

Total Pages: 47

ISBN-13: 1484330935

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Noting that the aftermath of the global financial crisis has left many advanced economies with very high sovereign debt ratios and some emerging markets with high debt, this report considers whether there are ways to expand fiscal space that do not involve countries paying down debt or promising to do so in the future, to make fiscal consolidation more growth-friendly. It explains that policymakers argue that their fiscal space is limited and that it would be difficult to take advantage of the opportunity of low interest rates to undertake fiscal expansion, and it considers a ways to raise fiscal space that does not require contractionary fiscal policy and whether there is a way to make fiscal consolidation more growth-friendly to produce larger gains in fiscal space. It argues that debt management policies may provide an answer to expanding fiscal space for a given path of primary fiscal balances by reducing the risk that a sovereign may default in bad states and generate a payoff in terms of reduced to real borrowing costs. It describes two debt management policies: issuance of GDP-linked debt and issuance of longer maturity bonds, as opposed to short-term debt. It focuses on the effect of these debt management policies on real borrowing costs and default risk for the sovereign and details the literature on GDP-linked debt and the maturity structure and how the report fills gaps in the literature; how uncertainty affects fiscal space and how debt management can play a role in increasing it, with estimates and simulations of potential gains in fiscal space flowing from debt management; and the sensitivity of the findings to underlying assumptions and policy implications.


Book Synopsis Boosting Fiscal Space by : Mr.Jonathan David Ostry

Download or read book Boosting Fiscal Space written by Mr.Jonathan David Ostry and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-03-14 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Noting that the aftermath of the global financial crisis has left many advanced economies with very high sovereign debt ratios and some emerging markets with high debt, this report considers whether there are ways to expand fiscal space that do not involve countries paying down debt or promising to do so in the future, to make fiscal consolidation more growth-friendly. It explains that policymakers argue that their fiscal space is limited and that it would be difficult to take advantage of the opportunity of low interest rates to undertake fiscal expansion, and it considers a ways to raise fiscal space that does not require contractionary fiscal policy and whether there is a way to make fiscal consolidation more growth-friendly to produce larger gains in fiscal space. It argues that debt management policies may provide an answer to expanding fiscal space for a given path of primary fiscal balances by reducing the risk that a sovereign may default in bad states and generate a payoff in terms of reduced to real borrowing costs. It describes two debt management policies: issuance of GDP-linked debt and issuance of longer maturity bonds, as opposed to short-term debt. It focuses on the effect of these debt management policies on real borrowing costs and default risk for the sovereign and details the literature on GDP-linked debt and the maturity structure and how the report fills gaps in the literature; how uncertainty affects fiscal space and how debt management can play a role in increasing it, with estimates and simulations of potential gains in fiscal space flowing from debt management; and the sensitivity of the findings to underlying assumptions and policy implications.

IMF Research Bulletin

IMF Research Bulletin

Author:

Publisher:

Published: 2004

Total Pages: 218

ISBN-13:

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Book Synopsis IMF Research Bulletin by :

Download or read book IMF Research Bulletin written by and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 218 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Optimal State Contingent Sovereign Debt Instruments

Optimal State Contingent Sovereign Debt Instruments

Author: Mr. Alejandro D Guerson

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2021-09-10

Total Pages: 31

ISBN-13: 1513595911

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This paper shows that the optimal sovereign lending contract is state-contingent when a government can default. It provides a theoretical basis for the specification of optimal state-contingent debt instruments (SCDIs) in countries subject to large shocks that can be observed and verified by all parties involved, such as natural disasters or global pandemics. The result is obtained as the endogenous solution to a contracting problem under time-inconsistency when a government cannot credibly commit to honor debt service obligations in all possible states of nature. It is shown that rational investors optimally offer SCDIs that include additional financing when the default constraint is binding, keeping the debtor engaged in the contractual relationship and avoiding asset loss. The debtor benefits because the contract implies net-positive financing when facing a large shock, increasing concurrent welfare, while maintaining access to financing in the future for consumption smoothing at the same terms as with precommitment. SCDIs require maintaining debt at a low level compared to the precommitment case, and also a fiscal consolidation when triggered to contain the increase in debt. Extension of the time inconsistency problem to add the taxation of capital returns shows that the optimal physical capital investment is also state-contingent.


Book Synopsis Optimal State Contingent Sovereign Debt Instruments by : Mr. Alejandro D Guerson

Download or read book Optimal State Contingent Sovereign Debt Instruments written by Mr. Alejandro D Guerson and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-09-10 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper shows that the optimal sovereign lending contract is state-contingent when a government can default. It provides a theoretical basis for the specification of optimal state-contingent debt instruments (SCDIs) in countries subject to large shocks that can be observed and verified by all parties involved, such as natural disasters or global pandemics. The result is obtained as the endogenous solution to a contracting problem under time-inconsistency when a government cannot credibly commit to honor debt service obligations in all possible states of nature. It is shown that rational investors optimally offer SCDIs that include additional financing when the default constraint is binding, keeping the debtor engaged in the contractual relationship and avoiding asset loss. The debtor benefits because the contract implies net-positive financing when facing a large shock, increasing concurrent welfare, while maintaining access to financing in the future for consumption smoothing at the same terms as with precommitment. SCDIs require maintaining debt at a low level compared to the precommitment case, and also a fiscal consolidation when triggered to contain the increase in debt. Extension of the time inconsistency problem to add the taxation of capital returns shows that the optimal physical capital investment is also state-contingent.

External Debt Statistics

External Debt Statistics

Author: International Monetary Fund

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2003-06-25

Total Pages: 327

ISBN-13: 1589060601

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This Guide provides clear, up-to-date guidance on the concepts, definitions, and classifications of the gross external debt of the public and private sectors, and on the sources, compilation techniques, and analytical uses of these data. The Guide supersedes the previous international guidance on external debt statistics available in External Debt: Definition, Statistical Coverage, and Methodology (known as the Gray Book), 1988. The Guides conceptual framework derives from the System of National Accounts 1993 and the fifth edition of the IMFs Balance of Payments Manual(1993). Preparation of the Guide was undertaken by an Inter-Agency Task Force on Finance Statistics, chaired by the IMF and involving representatives from the BIS, the Commonwealth Secretariat, the European Central Bank, Eurostat, the OECD, the Paris Club Secretariat, UNCTAD, and the World Bank.


Book Synopsis External Debt Statistics by : International Monetary Fund

Download or read book External Debt Statistics written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2003-06-25 with total page 327 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Guide provides clear, up-to-date guidance on the concepts, definitions, and classifications of the gross external debt of the public and private sectors, and on the sources, compilation techniques, and analytical uses of these data. The Guide supersedes the previous international guidance on external debt statistics available in External Debt: Definition, Statistical Coverage, and Methodology (known as the Gray Book), 1988. The Guides conceptual framework derives from the System of National Accounts 1993 and the fifth edition of the IMFs Balance of Payments Manual(1993). Preparation of the Guide was undertaken by an Inter-Agency Task Force on Finance Statistics, chaired by the IMF and involving representatives from the BIS, the Commonwealth Secretariat, the European Central Bank, Eurostat, the OECD, the Paris Club Secretariat, UNCTAD, and the World Bank.

A Primer on Managing Sovereign Debt-Portfolio Risks

A Primer on Managing Sovereign Debt-Portfolio Risks

Author: Thordur Jonasson

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2018-04-06

Total Pages: 133

ISBN-13: 1484350545

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This paper provides an overview of sovereign debt portfolio risks and discusses various liability management operations (LMOs) and instruments used by public debt managers to mitigate these risks. Debt management strategies analyzed in the context of helping reach debt portfolio targets and attain desired portfolio structures. Also, the paper outlines how LMOs could be integrated into a debt management strategy and serve as policy tools to reduce potential debt portfolio vulnerabilities. Further, the paper presents operational issues faced by debt managers, including the need to develop a risk management framework, interactions of debt management with fiscal policy, monetary policy, and financial stability, as well as efficient government bond markets.


Book Synopsis A Primer on Managing Sovereign Debt-Portfolio Risks by : Thordur Jonasson

Download or read book A Primer on Managing Sovereign Debt-Portfolio Risks written by Thordur Jonasson and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-04-06 with total page 133 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides an overview of sovereign debt portfolio risks and discusses various liability management operations (LMOs) and instruments used by public debt managers to mitigate these risks. Debt management strategies analyzed in the context of helping reach debt portfolio targets and attain desired portfolio structures. Also, the paper outlines how LMOs could be integrated into a debt management strategy and serve as policy tools to reduce potential debt portfolio vulnerabilities. Further, the paper presents operational issues faced by debt managers, including the need to develop a risk management framework, interactions of debt management with fiscal policy, monetary policy, and financial stability, as well as efficient government bond markets.

The Role of State-Contingent Debt Instruments in Sovereign Debt Restructurings

The Role of State-Contingent Debt Instruments in Sovereign Debt Restructurings

Author: Charles Cohen

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Published: 2020-11-19

Total Pages:

ISBN-13: 9781513556482

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The COVID-19 crisis may lead to a series of costly and inefficient sovereign debt restructurings. Any such restructurings will likely take place during a period of great economic uncertainty, which may lead to protracted negotiations between creditors and debtors over recovery values, and potentially even relapses into default post-restructuring. State-contingent debt instruments (SCDIs) could play an important role in improving the outcomes of these restructurings.


Book Synopsis The Role of State-Contingent Debt Instruments in Sovereign Debt Restructurings by : Charles Cohen

Download or read book The Role of State-Contingent Debt Instruments in Sovereign Debt Restructurings written by Charles Cohen and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2020-11-19 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The COVID-19 crisis may lead to a series of costly and inefficient sovereign debt restructurings. Any such restructurings will likely take place during a period of great economic uncertainty, which may lead to protracted negotiations between creditors and debtors over recovery values, and potentially even relapses into default post-restructuring. State-contingent debt instruments (SCDIs) could play an important role in improving the outcomes of these restructurings.

Government Finance Statistics Manual

Government Finance Statistics Manual

Author: Sage De Clerck

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2015-03-10

Total Pages: 470

ISBN-13: 1498379214

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The Government Finance Statistics Manual 2014 (GFSM 2014)—describes a specialized macroeconomic statistical framework––the government finance statistics (GFS) framework––designed to support fiscal analysis. The manual provides the economic and statistical reporting principles to be used in compiling the statistics; describes guidelines for presenting fiscal statistics within an analytic framework that includes appropriate balancing items; and is harmonized with other macroeconomic statistical guidelines.


Book Synopsis Government Finance Statistics Manual by : Sage De Clerck

Download or read book Government Finance Statistics Manual written by Sage De Clerck and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-03-10 with total page 470 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Government Finance Statistics Manual 2014 (GFSM 2014)—describes a specialized macroeconomic statistical framework––the government finance statistics (GFS) framework––designed to support fiscal analysis. The manual provides the economic and statistical reporting principles to be used in compiling the statistics; describes guidelines for presenting fiscal statistics within an analytic framework that includes appropriate balancing items; and is harmonized with other macroeconomic statistical guidelines.