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Info-Gap Decision Theory

Author: Yakov Ben-Haim

Publisher: Elsevier

Published: 2006-10-11

Total Pages: 385

ISBN-13: 0080465706

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Everyone makes decisions, but not everyone is a decision analyst. A decision analyst uses quantitative models and computational methods to formulate decision algorithms, assess decision performance, identify and evaluate options, determine trade-offs and risks, evaluate strategies for investigation, and so on. Info-Gap Decision Theory is written for decision analysts. The term "decision analyst" covers an extremely broad range of practitioners. Virtually all engineers involved in design (of buildings, machines, processes, etc.) or analysis (of safety, reliability, feasibility, etc.) are decision analysts, usually without calling themselves by this name. In addition to engineers, decision analysts work in planning offices for public agencies, in project management consultancies, they are engaged in manufacturing process planning and control, in financial planning and economic analysis, in decision support for medical or technological diagnosis, and so on and on. Decision analysts provide quantitative support for the decision-making process in all areas where systematic decisions are made. This second edition entails changes of several sorts. First, info-gap theory has found application in several new areas - especially biological conservation, economic policy formulation, preparedness against terrorism, and medical decision-making. Pertinent new examples have been included. Second, the combination of info-gap analysis with probabilistic decision algorithms has found wide application. Consequently "hybrid" models of uncertainty, which were treated exclusively in a separate chapter in the previous edition, now appear throughout the book as well as in a separate chapter. Finally, info-gap explanations of robust-satisficing behavior, and especially the Ellsberg and Allais "paradoxes", are discussed in a new chapter together with a theorem indicating when robust-satisficing will have greater probability of success than direct optimizing with uncertain models. New theory developed systematically Many examples from diverse disciplines Realistic representation of severe uncertainty Multi-faceted approach to risk Quantitative model-based decision theory

Book Synopsis Info-Gap Decision Theory by : Yakov Ben-Haim

Download or read book Info-Gap Decision Theory written by Yakov Ben-Haim and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2006-10-11 with total page 385 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Everyone makes decisions, but not everyone is a decision analyst. A decision analyst uses quantitative models and computational methods to formulate decision algorithms, assess decision performance, identify and evaluate options, determine trade-offs and risks, evaluate strategies for investigation, and so on. Info-Gap Decision Theory is written for decision analysts. The term "decision analyst" covers an extremely broad range of practitioners. Virtually all engineers involved in design (of buildings, machines, processes, etc.) or analysis (of safety, reliability, feasibility, etc.) are decision analysts, usually without calling themselves by this name. In addition to engineers, decision analysts work in planning offices for public agencies, in project management consultancies, they are engaged in manufacturing process planning and control, in financial planning and economic analysis, in decision support for medical or technological diagnosis, and so on and on. Decision analysts provide quantitative support for the decision-making process in all areas where systematic decisions are made. This second edition entails changes of several sorts. First, info-gap theory has found application in several new areas - especially biological conservation, economic policy formulation, preparedness against terrorism, and medical decision-making. Pertinent new examples have been included. Second, the combination of info-gap analysis with probabilistic decision algorithms has found wide application. Consequently "hybrid" models of uncertainty, which were treated exclusively in a separate chapter in the previous edition, now appear throughout the book as well as in a separate chapter. Finally, info-gap explanations of robust-satisficing behavior, and especially the Ellsberg and Allais "paradoxes", are discussed in a new chapter together with a theorem indicating when robust-satisficing will have greater probability of success than direct optimizing with uncertain models. New theory developed systematically Many examples from diverse disciplines Realistic representation of severe uncertainty Multi-faceted approach to risk Quantitative model-based decision theory

Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty

Author: Vincent A. W. J. Marchau

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2019-04-04

Total Pages: 408

ISBN-13: 3030052524

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This open access book focuses on both the theory and practice associated with the tools and approaches for decisionmaking in the face of deep uncertainty. It explores approaches and tools supporting the design of strategic plans under deep uncertainty, and their testing in the real world, including barriers and enablers for their use in practice. The book broadens traditional approaches and tools to include the analysis of actors and networks related to the problem at hand. It also shows how lessons learned in the application process can be used to improve the approaches and tools used in the design process. The book offers guidance in identifying and applying appropriate approaches and tools to design plans, as well as advice on implementing these plans in the real world. For decisionmakers and practitioners, the book includes realistic examples and practical guidelines that should help them understand what decisionmaking under deep uncertainty is and how it may be of assistance to them. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice is divided into four parts. Part I presents five approaches for designing strategic plans under deep uncertainty: Robust Decision Making, Dynamic Adaptive Planning, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, Info-Gap Decision Theory, and Engineering Options Analysis. Each approach is worked out in terms of its theoretical foundations, methodological steps to follow when using the approach, latest methodological insights, and challenges for improvement. In Part II, applications of each of these approaches are presented. Based on recent case studies, the practical implications of applying each approach are discussed in depth. Part III focuses on using the approaches and tools in real-world contexts, based on insights from real-world cases. Part IV contains conclusions and a synthesis of the lessons that can be drawn for designing, applying, and implementing strategic plans under deep uncertainty, as well as recommendations for future work. The publication of this book has been funded by the Radboud University, the RAND Corporation, Delft University of Technology, and Deltares.

Book Synopsis Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty by : Vincent A. W. J. Marchau

Download or read book Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty written by Vincent A. W. J. Marchau and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-04-04 with total page 408 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book focuses on both the theory and practice associated with the tools and approaches for decisionmaking in the face of deep uncertainty. It explores approaches and tools supporting the design of strategic plans under deep uncertainty, and their testing in the real world, including barriers and enablers for their use in practice. The book broadens traditional approaches and tools to include the analysis of actors and networks related to the problem at hand. It also shows how lessons learned in the application process can be used to improve the approaches and tools used in the design process. The book offers guidance in identifying and applying appropriate approaches and tools to design plans, as well as advice on implementing these plans in the real world. For decisionmakers and practitioners, the book includes realistic examples and practical guidelines that should help them understand what decisionmaking under deep uncertainty is and how it may be of assistance to them. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice is divided into four parts. Part I presents five approaches for designing strategic plans under deep uncertainty: Robust Decision Making, Dynamic Adaptive Planning, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, Info-Gap Decision Theory, and Engineering Options Analysis. Each approach is worked out in terms of its theoretical foundations, methodological steps to follow when using the approach, latest methodological insights, and challenges for improvement. In Part II, applications of each of these approaches are presented. Based on recent case studies, the practical implications of applying each approach are discussed in depth. Part III focuses on using the approaches and tools in real-world contexts, based on insights from real-world cases. Part IV contains conclusions and a synthesis of the lessons that can be drawn for designing, applying, and implementing strategic plans under deep uncertainty, as well as recommendations for future work. The publication of this book has been funded by the Radboud University, the RAND Corporation, Delft University of Technology, and Deltares.

Robust Optimal Planning and Operation of Electrical Energy Systems

Author: Behnam Mohammadi-ivatloo

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2019-02-06

Total Pages: 315

ISBN-13: 3030042960

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This book discusses the recent developments in robust optimization (RO) and information gap design theory (IGDT) methods and their application for the optimal planning and operation of electric energy systems. Chapters cover both theoretical background and applications to address common uncertainty factors such as load variation, power market price, and power generation of renewable energy sources. Case studies with real-world applications are included to help undergraduate and graduate students, researchers and engineers solve robust power and energy optimization problems and provide effective and promising solutions for the robust planning and operation of electric energy systems.

Book Synopsis Robust Optimal Planning and Operation of Electrical Energy Systems by : Behnam Mohammadi-ivatloo

Download or read book Robust Optimal Planning and Operation of Electrical Energy Systems written by Behnam Mohammadi-ivatloo and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-02-06 with total page 315 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book discusses the recent developments in robust optimization (RO) and information gap design theory (IGDT) methods and their application for the optimal planning and operation of electric energy systems. Chapters cover both theoretical background and applications to address common uncertainty factors such as load variation, power market price, and power generation of renewable energy sources. Case studies with real-world applications are included to help undergraduate and graduate students, researchers and engineers solve robust power and energy optimization problems and provide effective and promising solutions for the robust planning and operation of electric energy systems.

Info-Gap Economics

Author: Y. Ben-Haim

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2010-04-09

Total Pages: 257

ISBN-13: 0230277322

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This book is a product of applying info-gap decision theory to policy formulation and evaluation in monetary economics and related domains. Info-gap theory has been applied to planning and decision problems in many areas, including engineering, biological conservation, project management, economics, medicine, homeland security, and more.

Book Synopsis Info-Gap Economics by : Y. Ben-Haim

Download or read book Info-Gap Economics written by Y. Ben-Haim and published by Springer. This book was released on 2010-04-09 with total page 257 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is a product of applying info-gap decision theory to policy formulation and evaluation in monetary economics and related domains. Info-gap theory has been applied to planning and decision problems in many areas, including engineering, biological conservation, project management, economics, medicine, homeland security, and more.

Bridging the Socio-technical Gap in Decision Support Systems

Author: Ana Respício

Publisher: IOS Press

Published: 2010

Total Pages: 616

ISBN-13: 1607505762

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Presents the advances in decision support theory and practice with a focus on bridging the socio-technical gap. This book covers a wide range of topics including: Understanding DM, Design of DSS, Web 2.0 Systems in Decision Support, Business Intelligence and Data Warehousing, Applications of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis, and more.

Book Synopsis Bridging the Socio-technical Gap in Decision Support Systems by : Ana Respício

Download or read book Bridging the Socio-technical Gap in Decision Support Systems written by Ana Respício and published by IOS Press. This book was released on 2010 with total page 616 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Presents the advances in decision support theory and practice with a focus on bridging the socio-technical gap. This book covers a wide range of topics including: Understanding DM, Design of DSS, Web 2.0 Systems in Decision Support, Business Intelligence and Data Warehousing, Applications of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis, and more.

Insights in Decision Making

Author: Robin M. Hogarth

Publisher: University of Chicago Press

Published: 1990-04-18

Total Pages: 376

ISBN-13: 9780226348551

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How do people make decisions? How can we help people make better decisions? How can we best study the processes of decision making? The growing field of behavioral decision research, which seeks to link observed decision behavior to underlying psychological mechanisms, may provide the answers to these questions. The volume is based on a recent conference held to honor the work and memory of the late Hillel J. Einhorn, a pioneering scholar in behavioral decision research. Composed of contributions by leading researchers, Insights in Decision Making provides a state-of-the-art image of work in this field. The range of topics covered includes conceptual and technical issues the bridge the gap between theory and the practical concern of improving decision making, difficulties in statistical thinking, experimental studies of processes of judgment and choice, and the emergence of new paradigms for studying decision behavior. Providing many avenues for future research, Insights in Decision Making will be essential reading for students of the psychology of decision making and will prove valuable to readers in psychology, economics, statistics, and management.

Book Synopsis Insights in Decision Making by : Robin M. Hogarth

Download or read book Insights in Decision Making written by Robin M. Hogarth and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 1990-04-18 with total page 376 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How do people make decisions? How can we help people make better decisions? How can we best study the processes of decision making? The growing field of behavioral decision research, which seeks to link observed decision behavior to underlying psychological mechanisms, may provide the answers to these questions. The volume is based on a recent conference held to honor the work and memory of the late Hillel J. Einhorn, a pioneering scholar in behavioral decision research. Composed of contributions by leading researchers, Insights in Decision Making provides a state-of-the-art image of work in this field. The range of topics covered includes conceptual and technical issues the bridge the gap between theory and the practical concern of improving decision making, difficulties in statistical thinking, experimental studies of processes of judgment and choice, and the emergence of new paradigms for studying decision behavior. Providing many avenues for future research, Insights in Decision Making will be essential reading for students of the psychology of decision making and will prove valuable to readers in psychology, economics, statistics, and management.

Risk-Based Energy Management

Author: Sayyad Nojavan

Publisher: Academic Press

Published: 2019-07-20

Total Pages: 294

ISBN-13: 0128174927

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Risk-Based Energy Management: DC, AC and Hybrid AC-DC Microgrids defines the problems and challenges of DC, AC and hybrid AC-DC microgrids and considers the right tactics and risk-based scheduling to tackle them. The book looks at the intermittent nature of renewable generation, demand and market price with the risk to DC, AC and hybrid AC-DC microgrids, which makes it relevant for anyone in renewable energy demand and supply. As utilization of distributed energy resources and the intermittent nature of renewable generations, demand and market price can put the operation of DC, AC and hybrid AC-DC microgrids at risk, this book presents a timely resource. Discusses both the challenges and solutions surrounding DC, AC and hybrid AC-DC microgrids Proposes robust scheduling of DC, AC and hybrid AC-DC microgrids under uncertain environments Includes modeling upstream grid prices, renewable resources and intermittent load in the decision-making process of DC, AC and hybrid AC-DC microgrids

Book Synopsis Risk-Based Energy Management by : Sayyad Nojavan

Download or read book Risk-Based Energy Management written by Sayyad Nojavan and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2019-07-20 with total page 294 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Risk-Based Energy Management: DC, AC and Hybrid AC-DC Microgrids defines the problems and challenges of DC, AC and hybrid AC-DC microgrids and considers the right tactics and risk-based scheduling to tackle them. The book looks at the intermittent nature of renewable generation, demand and market price with the risk to DC, AC and hybrid AC-DC microgrids, which makes it relevant for anyone in renewable energy demand and supply. As utilization of distributed energy resources and the intermittent nature of renewable generations, demand and market price can put the operation of DC, AC and hybrid AC-DC microgrids at risk, this book presents a timely resource. Discusses both the challenges and solutions surrounding DC, AC and hybrid AC-DC microgrids Proposes robust scheduling of DC, AC and hybrid AC-DC microgrids under uncertain environments Includes modeling upstream grid prices, renewable resources and intermittent load in the decision-making process of DC, AC and hybrid AC-DC microgrids

The Knowing-doing Gap

Author: Jeffrey Pfeffer

Publisher: Harvard Business Press

Published: 2000

Total Pages: 348

ISBN-13: 9781578511242

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The market for business knowledge is booming as companies looking to improve their performance pour millions of pounds into training programmes, consultants, and executive education. Why then, are there so many gaps between what firms know they should do and waht they actual do? This volume confronts the challenge of turning knowledge about how to improve performance into actions that produce measurable results. The authors identify the causes of this gap and explain how to close it.

Book Synopsis The Knowing-doing Gap by : Jeffrey Pfeffer

Download or read book The Knowing-doing Gap written by Jeffrey Pfeffer and published by Harvard Business Press. This book was released on 2000 with total page 348 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The market for business knowledge is booming as companies looking to improve their performance pour millions of pounds into training programmes, consultants, and executive education. Why then, are there so many gaps between what firms know they should do and waht they actual do? This volume confronts the challenge of turning knowledge about how to improve performance into actions that produce measurable results. The authors identify the causes of this gap and explain how to close it.

Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resources Planning and Project Design

Author: Patrick A. Ray

Publisher: World Bank Publications

Published: 2015-08-20

Total Pages: 149

ISBN-13: 1464804788

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Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resources Planning and Project Design describes an approach to facing two fundamental and unavoidable issues brought about by climate change uncertainty in water resources planning and project design. The first is a risk assessment problem. The second relates to risk management. This book provides background on the risks relevant in water systems planning, the different approaches to scenario definition in water system planning, and an introduction to the decision-scaling methodology upon which the decision tree is based. The decision tree is described as a scientifically defensible, repeatable, direct and clear method for demonstrating the robustness of a project to climate change. While applicable to all water resources projects, it allocates effort to projects in a way that is consistent with their potential sensitivity to climate risk. The process was designed to be hierarchical, with different stages or phases of analysis triggered based on the findings of the previous phase. An application example is provided followed by a descriptions of some of the tools available for decision making under uncertainty and methods available for climate risk management. The tool was designed for the World Bank but can be applicable in other scenarios where similar challenges arise.

Book Synopsis Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resources Planning and Project Design by : Patrick A. Ray

Download or read book Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resources Planning and Project Design written by Patrick A. Ray and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2015-08-20 with total page 149 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resources Planning and Project Design describes an approach to facing two fundamental and unavoidable issues brought about by climate change uncertainty in water resources planning and project design. The first is a risk assessment problem. The second relates to risk management. This book provides background on the risks relevant in water systems planning, the different approaches to scenario definition in water system planning, and an introduction to the decision-scaling methodology upon which the decision tree is based. The decision tree is described as a scientifically defensible, repeatable, direct and clear method for demonstrating the robustness of a project to climate change. While applicable to all water resources projects, it allocates effort to projects in a way that is consistent with their potential sensitivity to climate risk. The process was designed to be hierarchical, with different stages or phases of analysis triggered based on the findings of the previous phase. An application example is provided followed by a descriptions of some of the tools available for decision making under uncertainty and methods available for climate risk management. The tool was designed for the World Bank but can be applicable in other scenarios where similar challenges arise.

Moral Uncertainty

Author: William MacAskill

Publisher: Oxford University Press

Published: 2020

Total Pages: 237

ISBN-13: 0198722273

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About the bookToby Ord try to fill this gap. They argue that there are distinctive norms that govern how one ought to make decisions and defend an information-sensitive account of how to make such decisions. They do so by developing an analogy between moral uncertainty and social choice, noting that different moral views provide different amounts of information regarding our reasons for action, and arguing that the correct account of decision-making under moral uncertainty must be sensitive to that. Moral Uncertainty also tackles the problem of how to make intertheoretic comparisons, and addresses the implications of their view for metaethics and practical ethics. Very often we are uncertain about what we ought, morally, to do. We do not know how to weigh the interests of animals against humans, how strong our duties are to improve the lives of distant strangers, or how to think about the ethics of bringing new people into existence. But we still need to act. So how should we make decisions in the face of such uncertainty? Though economists and philosophers have extensively studied the issue of decision-making in the face of uncertainty about matters of fact, the question of decision-making given fundamental moral uncertainty has been neglected. In Moral Uncertainty, philosophers William MacAskill, Krister Bykvist, and Toby Ord try to fill this gap. They argue that there are distinctive norms that govern how one ought to make decisions and defend an information-sensitive account of how to make such decisions. They do so by developing an analogy between moral uncertainty and social choice, noting that different moral views provide different amounts of information regarding our reasons for action, and arguing that the correct account of decision-making under moral uncertainty must be sensitive to that. Moral Uncertainty also tackles the problem of how to make intertheoretic comparisons, and addresses the implications of their view for metaethics and practical ethics.

Book Synopsis Moral Uncertainty by : William MacAskill

Download or read book Moral Uncertainty written by William MacAskill and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2020 with total page 237 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: About the bookToby Ord try to fill this gap. They argue that there are distinctive norms that govern how one ought to make decisions and defend an information-sensitive account of how to make such decisions. They do so by developing an analogy between moral uncertainty and social choice, noting that different moral views provide different amounts of information regarding our reasons for action, and arguing that the correct account of decision-making under moral uncertainty must be sensitive to that. Moral Uncertainty also tackles the problem of how to make intertheoretic comparisons, and addresses the implications of their view for metaethics and practical ethics. Very often we are uncertain about what we ought, morally, to do. We do not know how to weigh the interests of animals against humans, how strong our duties are to improve the lives of distant strangers, or how to think about the ethics of bringing new people into existence. But we still need to act. So how should we make decisions in the face of such uncertainty? Though economists and philosophers have extensively studied the issue of decision-making in the face of uncertainty about matters of fact, the question of decision-making given fundamental moral uncertainty has been neglected. In Moral Uncertainty, philosophers William MacAskill, Krister Bykvist, and Toby Ord try to fill this gap. They argue that there are distinctive norms that govern how one ought to make decisions and defend an information-sensitive account of how to make such decisions. They do so by developing an analogy between moral uncertainty and social choice, noting that different moral views provide different amounts of information regarding our reasons for action, and arguing that the correct account of decision-making under moral uncertainty must be sensitive to that. Moral Uncertainty also tackles the problem of how to make intertheoretic comparisons, and addresses the implications of their view for metaethics and practical ethics.