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We examine the interest rate elasticity of housing prices, advancingthe empirical literature in two directions. First, we take a commonly used cross-country panel dataset and evaluate the housing price equation using a consistent estimator in the presence of endogenous explanatory variables and a lagged dependent variable. Second, we carry-out a novel analysis of determinants of residential housing prices in a cross-section of countries. Our results show that the short-term interest rate, and hence monetary policy, has a sizable impact on residential housing prices.
Book Synopsis Interest Rate Elasticity of Residential Housing Prices by : Mr.Martin Cihak
Download or read book Interest Rate Elasticity of Residential Housing Prices written by Mr.Martin Cihak and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2008-10-01 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We examine the interest rate elasticity of housing prices, advancingthe empirical literature in two directions. First, we take a commonly used cross-country panel dataset and evaluate the housing price equation using a consistent estimator in the presence of endogenous explanatory variables and a lagged dependent variable. Second, we carry-out a novel analysis of determinants of residential housing prices in a cross-section of countries. Our results show that the short-term interest rate, and hence monetary policy, has a sizable impact on residential housing prices.
Book Synopsis IMF Working Papers by : Martin Cihák
Download or read book IMF Working Papers written by Martin Cihák and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
This dissertation, "Land Supply Elasticity and the Housing Price Sensitivity to Interest Rate" by Yikun, Huang, 黃逸昆, was obtained from The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong) and is being sold pursuant to Creative Commons: Attribution 3.0 Hong Kong License. The content of this dissertation has not been altered in any way. We have altered the formatting in order to facilitate the ease of printing and reading of the dissertation. All rights not granted by the above license are retained by the author. Abstract: In Hong Kong, housing prices have increased significantly in recent years. Amongst all the reasons for such significant increase, low interest rate has been recognized as one of the major reasons. Many studies have provided empirical evidence to support the negative relationship between interest rate and housing prices. However, in the US, recent studies (Glaeser, Gottlieb and Gyourko, 2010; Kuttner, 2012) show that the observed effect of interest rate changes on housing prices is much less than that predicted by the standard user cost model. According to the Glaeser et al. (2010), there are three potential explanations for the low housing price sensitivity to interest rate fluctuation. First, increase in land (and therefore housing) supply elasticity can reduce the effects of the demand-side variables, including interest rate. Second, high risk premium for long term mortgage rate in the US makes housing prices less sensitive to changes in interest rates. Third, the long-term mortgage contracts in the US cannot reflect the impact of frequent short term interest rate fluctuation. Among these three potential hypotheses proposed to explain the lower than expected housing price sensitivity to interest rate changes, land supply elasticity is more relevant to Hong Kong. By focusing on Hong Kong's housing market, this thesis examines the relationship between land supply elasticity and the sensitivity of housing prices towards interest rate changes. When demand shift due to interest rate change, land supply (and therefore housing supply) may respond accordingly to reduce the impact of interest rate change. The more elastic the supply is, the weaker the housing price sensitivity to interest rate may be. Alternatively, housing prices are more sensitive to interest rate change when land supply is inelastic. To be more precisely, this study provides an empirical test on whether land supply elasticity reduces housing price sensitivity towards interest changes. Two approaches are applied to provide clear pictures of housing price sensitivity. First, data from different housing subsectors with different land supply elasticity are used for the empirical tests. The results show that prices of large units in the Hong Kong Island are significantly more sensitive to interest rate change, compared to those of small units in the New Territories. This is consistent with the implication of our hypothesis because new land for building luxurious units in Hong Kong Island is limited while there are relatively more lands available in the New Territories for smaller mass residential units. Second, in Hong Kong, all new land supply comes from the government in the form of leasehold land. Hence, government's land supply policy has a major impact on land supply elasticity. For example, there was a period of restricted land supply before the handover in 1997, which effectively reduced land supply elasticity. On the other hand, the Application List land sales system adopted by the Hong Kong government from 2000 to 2013 should increase the flexibility in land supply. Therefore, this study makes use of these policy changes as nature experiments to investigate the effect of land supply elasticity on housing price sensitivity towards interest fluctuation. The results show that housing prices are more sensitive to interest rate change during the land supply restriction period and more insensitive
Book Synopsis Land Supply Elasticity and the Housing Price Sensitivity to Interest Rate by : Yikun Huang
Download or read book Land Supply Elasticity and the Housing Price Sensitivity to Interest Rate written by Yikun Huang and published by Open Dissertation Press. This book was released on 2017-01-26 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation, "Land Supply Elasticity and the Housing Price Sensitivity to Interest Rate" by Yikun, Huang, 黃逸昆, was obtained from The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong) and is being sold pursuant to Creative Commons: Attribution 3.0 Hong Kong License. The content of this dissertation has not been altered in any way. We have altered the formatting in order to facilitate the ease of printing and reading of the dissertation. All rights not granted by the above license are retained by the author. Abstract: In Hong Kong, housing prices have increased significantly in recent years. Amongst all the reasons for such significant increase, low interest rate has been recognized as one of the major reasons. Many studies have provided empirical evidence to support the negative relationship between interest rate and housing prices. However, in the US, recent studies (Glaeser, Gottlieb and Gyourko, 2010; Kuttner, 2012) show that the observed effect of interest rate changes on housing prices is much less than that predicted by the standard user cost model. According to the Glaeser et al. (2010), there are three potential explanations for the low housing price sensitivity to interest rate fluctuation. First, increase in land (and therefore housing) supply elasticity can reduce the effects of the demand-side variables, including interest rate. Second, high risk premium for long term mortgage rate in the US makes housing prices less sensitive to changes in interest rates. Third, the long-term mortgage contracts in the US cannot reflect the impact of frequent short term interest rate fluctuation. Among these three potential hypotheses proposed to explain the lower than expected housing price sensitivity to interest rate changes, land supply elasticity is more relevant to Hong Kong. By focusing on Hong Kong's housing market, this thesis examines the relationship between land supply elasticity and the sensitivity of housing prices towards interest rate changes. When demand shift due to interest rate change, land supply (and therefore housing supply) may respond accordingly to reduce the impact of interest rate change. The more elastic the supply is, the weaker the housing price sensitivity to interest rate may be. Alternatively, housing prices are more sensitive to interest rate change when land supply is inelastic. To be more precisely, this study provides an empirical test on whether land supply elasticity reduces housing price sensitivity towards interest changes. Two approaches are applied to provide clear pictures of housing price sensitivity. First, data from different housing subsectors with different land supply elasticity are used for the empirical tests. The results show that prices of large units in the Hong Kong Island are significantly more sensitive to interest rate change, compared to those of small units in the New Territories. This is consistent with the implication of our hypothesis because new land for building luxurious units in Hong Kong Island is limited while there are relatively more lands available in the New Territories for smaller mass residential units. Second, in Hong Kong, all new land supply comes from the government in the form of leasehold land. Hence, government's land supply policy has a major impact on land supply elasticity. For example, there was a period of restricted land supply before the handover in 1997, which effectively reduced land supply elasticity. On the other hand, the Application List land sales system adopted by the Hong Kong government from 2000 to 2013 should increase the flexibility in land supply. Therefore, this study makes use of these policy changes as nature experiments to investigate the effect of land supply elasticity on housing price sensitivity towards interest fluctuation. The results show that housing prices are more sensitive to interest rate change during the land supply restriction period and more insensitive
House prices in many advanced economies have risen substantially in recent decades. But experience indicates that housing prices can diverge from their long-run equilibrium or sustainable levels, potentially followed by adjustments that impact macroeconomic and financial stability. Therefore there is a need to monitor house prices and assess whether they are sustainable. This paper focuses on fundamentals expected to drive long run trends in house prices, including institutional and structural factors. The scale of potential valuation gaps is gauged on the basis of a cross-country panel analysis of house prices in 20 OECD countries.
Book Synopsis Fundamental Drivers of House Prices in Advanced Economies by : Ms.Nan Geng
Download or read book Fundamental Drivers of House Prices in Advanced Economies written by Ms.Nan Geng and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-07-18 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: House prices in many advanced economies have risen substantially in recent decades. But experience indicates that housing prices can diverge from their long-run equilibrium or sustainable levels, potentially followed by adjustments that impact macroeconomic and financial stability. Therefore there is a need to monitor house prices and assess whether they are sustainable. This paper focuses on fundamentals expected to drive long run trends in house prices, including institutional and structural factors. The scale of potential valuation gaps is gauged on the basis of a cross-country panel analysis of house prices in 20 OECD countries.
Book Synopsis The Inflation of House Prices, Its Extent, Causes, and Consequences by : Leo Grebler
Download or read book The Inflation of House Prices, Its Extent, Causes, and Consequences written by Leo Grebler and published by Free Press. This book was released on 1979 with total page 280 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Analyzes the price elasticity of the supply of rental housing services, defined as the percentage increase in supply associated with a one percent increase in price. The purpose of the report is to predict the price changes associated with supply responses to shifts in demand. Section II analyzes each component of supply response separately. It presents price elasticities for the repair, inventory, and occupancy responses to demand shifts. It reviews the literature on all three and offers new estimates for the second and third (the estimates are based on the analysis of Annual Housing Survey data from the U.S. Census Bureau reported in Appendix B). Section III combines the three individual supply elasticities into a composite elasticity. It accomplishes the integration using a model of housing-market responses to demand shifts presented in Appendix C. The model was built during the Housing Assistance Supply Experiment to explain the housing market's response to demand shifts caused by an experimental housing allowance program.
Book Synopsis Price Elasticities of Housing Supply by : C. Peter Rydell
Download or read book Price Elasticities of Housing Supply written by C. Peter Rydell and published by . This book was released on 1982 with total page 84 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Analyzes the price elasticity of the supply of rental housing services, defined as the percentage increase in supply associated with a one percent increase in price. The purpose of the report is to predict the price changes associated with supply responses to shifts in demand. Section II analyzes each component of supply response separately. It presents price elasticities for the repair, inventory, and occupancy responses to demand shifts. It reviews the literature on all three and offers new estimates for the second and third (the estimates are based on the analysis of Annual Housing Survey data from the U.S. Census Bureau reported in Appendix B). Section III combines the three individual supply elasticities into a composite elasticity. It accomplishes the integration using a model of housing-market responses to demand shifts presented in Appendix C. The model was built during the Housing Assistance Supply Experiment to explain the housing market's response to demand shifts caused by an experimental housing allowance program.
Housing Economics provides information pertinent to the fundamental aspects of housing economics. This book discusses the economic theory of how households make housing choices, how suppliers make decisions, and how changes in exogenous variables alter the market outcome. Organized into 10 chapters, this book begins with an overview of the nature of housing economics and explains why the standard microeconomic models need to be modified. This text then examines the demand side of the housing market. Other chapters provide an economic analysis of the supply side of the housing market. This book discusses as well the housing market models as they arise in a more macroeconomic context. The final chapter deals with the effects of different housing programs on consumers, producers, and the market equilibrium. This book is a valuable resource for undergraduate students of economics. Planners, urban geographers, policy analysts, and civil servants will also find this book useful.
Book Synopsis Housing Economics by : George Fallis
Download or read book Housing Economics written by George Fallis and published by Butterworth-Heinemann. This book was released on 2014-05-12 with total page 250 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Housing Economics provides information pertinent to the fundamental aspects of housing economics. This book discusses the economic theory of how households make housing choices, how suppliers make decisions, and how changes in exogenous variables alter the market outcome. Organized into 10 chapters, this book begins with an overview of the nature of housing economics and explains why the standard microeconomic models need to be modified. This text then examines the demand side of the housing market. Other chapters provide an economic analysis of the supply side of the housing market. This book discusses as well the housing market models as they arise in a more macroeconomic context. The final chapter deals with the effects of different housing programs on consumers, producers, and the market equilibrium. This book is a valuable resource for undergraduate students of economics. Planners, urban geographers, policy analysts, and civil servants will also find this book useful.
The COVID-19 pandemic further extended the multi-year housing boom in advanced economies and emerging markets alike against massive monetary easing during the pandemic. In this paper, we analyze the pricing-out phenomenon in the U.S. residential housing market due to higher house prices associated with monetary easing. We first set up a stylized general equilibrium model and show that although monetary easing decreases the mortgage payment burden, it would raise house prices, lower housing affordability for first-time homebuyers, and increase housing wealth inequality between first-time and repeat homebuyers. We then use the U.S. household-level data to quantify the effect of the house price change on housing affordability relative to that of the interest rate change. We find evidence of the pricing-out effect for all homebuyers; moreover, we find that the pricing-out effect is stronger for first-time homebuyers than for repeat homebuyers. The paper highlights the importance of accounting for general equilibrium effects and distributional implications of monetary policy while assessing housing affordability. It also calls for complementing monetary easing with well-targeted policy measures that can boost housing affordability, particularly for first-time and lower-income households. Such measures are also needed during aggressive monetary tightening, given that the fall in house prices may be insufficient or too slow to fully offset the immediate adverse impact of higher rates on housing affordability.
Book Synopsis The Pricing-Out Phenomenon in the U.S. Housing Market by : Francesco Beraldi
Download or read book The Pricing-Out Phenomenon in the U.S. Housing Market written by Francesco Beraldi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-01-06 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The COVID-19 pandemic further extended the multi-year housing boom in advanced economies and emerging markets alike against massive monetary easing during the pandemic. In this paper, we analyze the pricing-out phenomenon in the U.S. residential housing market due to higher house prices associated with monetary easing. We first set up a stylized general equilibrium model and show that although monetary easing decreases the mortgage payment burden, it would raise house prices, lower housing affordability for first-time homebuyers, and increase housing wealth inequality between first-time and repeat homebuyers. We then use the U.S. household-level data to quantify the effect of the house price change on housing affordability relative to that of the interest rate change. We find evidence of the pricing-out effect for all homebuyers; moreover, we find that the pricing-out effect is stronger for first-time homebuyers than for repeat homebuyers. The paper highlights the importance of accounting for general equilibrium effects and distributional implications of monetary policy while assessing housing affordability. It also calls for complementing monetary easing with well-targeted policy measures that can boost housing affordability, particularly for first-time and lower-income households. Such measures are also needed during aggressive monetary tightening, given that the fall in house prices may be insufficient or too slow to fully offset the immediate adverse impact of higher rates on housing affordability.
Conventional wisdom held that housing prices couldn’t fall. But the spectacular boom and bust of the housing market during the first decade of the twenty-first century and millions of foreclosed homeowners have made it clear that housing is no different from any other asset in its ability to climb and crash. Housing and the Financial Crisis looks at what happened to prices and construction both during and after the housing boom in different parts of the American housing market, accounting for why certain areas experienced less volatility than others. It then examines the causes of the boom and bust, including the availability of credit, the perceived risk reduction due to the securitization of mortgages, and the increase in lending from foreign sources. Finally, it examines a range of policies that might address some of the sources of recent instability.
Book Synopsis Housing and the Financial Crisis by : Edward L. Glaeser
Download or read book Housing and the Financial Crisis written by Edward L. Glaeser and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2013-08-19 with total page 443 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Conventional wisdom held that housing prices couldn’t fall. But the spectacular boom and bust of the housing market during the first decade of the twenty-first century and millions of foreclosed homeowners have made it clear that housing is no different from any other asset in its ability to climb and crash. Housing and the Financial Crisis looks at what happened to prices and construction both during and after the housing boom in different parts of the American housing market, accounting for why certain areas experienced less volatility than others. It then examines the causes of the boom and bust, including the availability of credit, the perceived risk reduction due to the securitization of mortgages, and the increase in lending from foreign sources. Finally, it examines a range of policies that might address some of the sources of recent instability.
A detailed analysis of the psychological and mechanical causes of the biggest rally, and subsequent fall, of housing prices ever recorded. Examines the causes of the breathtaking rise in prices and the catastrophic fall that ensued to answer the question on every homeowner's mind: "Why did house prices fall?"--Page 4 of cover
Book Synopsis The Great Housing Bubble by : Lawrence Roberts
Download or read book The Great Housing Bubble written by Lawrence Roberts and published by Monterey Cypress LLC. This book was released on 2008 with total page 251 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A detailed analysis of the psychological and mechanical causes of the biggest rally, and subsequent fall, of housing prices ever recorded. Examines the causes of the breathtaking rise in prices and the catastrophic fall that ensued to answer the question on every homeowner's mind: "Why did house prices fall?"--Page 4 of cover
