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This paper uses a vector autoregression (VAR) approach to identify the driving forces of the growth slowdown in Japan during the 1990s. Negative shocks to both residential and nonresidential investment are shown to have been important determinants of the slowdown. Despite the collapse in asset prices, negative shocks to private consumption were relatively small. A surprising conclusion is that trends in public consumption had a dampening impact on activity in the 1990s. The VAR estimations do not support the counterfactual conjecture that activity in Japan would have been significantly weaker in the absence of the expansionary shift in fiscal policy.
Book Synopsis Japan's Stagnant Nineties by : Mr.Ramana Ramaswamy
Download or read book Japan's Stagnant Nineties written by Mr.Ramana Ramaswamy and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1999-04-01 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper uses a vector autoregression (VAR) approach to identify the driving forces of the growth slowdown in Japan during the 1990s. Negative shocks to both residential and nonresidential investment are shown to have been important determinants of the slowdown. Despite the collapse in asset prices, negative shocks to private consumption were relatively small. A surprising conclusion is that trends in public consumption had a dampening impact on activity in the 1990s. The VAR estimations do not support the counterfactual conjecture that activity in Japan would have been significantly weaker in the absence of the expansionary shift in fiscal policy.
Seminar paper from the year 2005 in the subject Business economics - Economic Policy, grade: 70%, University of Hertfordshire (Business School), course: Economic Policy, language: English, abstract: This report will examine the economic stagnation in Japan in the 1990s. The second section will introduce the events in the 1990s and give the most important features, followed by a closer look at the chain of events, explaining what caused what in a chronological approach. From there, we will introduce a set of possible reasons for the depicted developments and the theoretical frameworks in the third and fourth section which will then lead to our conclusion based on the analysis given before, accommodating the conclusion of Krugman of Japan being in a liquidity trap in our findings. 2. Japan in the 90s - summarizing macroeconomic developments This section will introduce the phases considered, the building the “bubble” in the 80s, “burst” of the bubble in February 1991, continuous recession and seeming recovery in 1996 and renewed economic downturn from 1997 on until 2000, the end of the considered timeframe. a. Build-up of booming asset and real estate market - “bubble economy” Japans Economy in the 80s showed strong growth of above average, e.g. 4.1% ten year average growth in 1986 (Weinert, 2001, p. 461) and very low inflation (Baig, 2003, p. 5). Declining regulation of the financial sector and generally lax regulation led to a creditfuelled boom in the land- and asset-markets (Schrooten, 2000, p. 2). Within this process, the boom-financing bank-loans were built on collaterals of mostly land or stocks, accumulating risks in the loan books of the banks (Woo, 1999, p.7). b. “Burst” of the bubble By 1989, the Japanese stock market peaked, in 1992, land prices start to decline. Both are related to government intervention, the stock market was affected by a change of the discount rate by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the latter was influenced by a restriction of maximum loans to real estate in April 1990 (Baig, 2003, p. 8). The economic downturn in the aftermath was worsened by interconnection of bank loans and declining value of collaterals.
Book Synopsis The economic stagnation in Japan in the 90s by : Henning Schmidt
Download or read book The economic stagnation in Japan in the 90s written by Henning Schmidt and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2007-02-05 with total page 13 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Seminar paper from the year 2005 in the subject Business economics - Economic Policy, grade: 70%, University of Hertfordshire (Business School), course: Economic Policy, language: English, abstract: This report will examine the economic stagnation in Japan in the 1990s. The second section will introduce the events in the 1990s and give the most important features, followed by a closer look at the chain of events, explaining what caused what in a chronological approach. From there, we will introduce a set of possible reasons for the depicted developments and the theoretical frameworks in the third and fourth section which will then lead to our conclusion based on the analysis given before, accommodating the conclusion of Krugman of Japan being in a liquidity trap in our findings. 2. Japan in the 90s - summarizing macroeconomic developments This section will introduce the phases considered, the building the “bubble” in the 80s, “burst” of the bubble in February 1991, continuous recession and seeming recovery in 1996 and renewed economic downturn from 1997 on until 2000, the end of the considered timeframe. a. Build-up of booming asset and real estate market - “bubble economy” Japans Economy in the 80s showed strong growth of above average, e.g. 4.1% ten year average growth in 1986 (Weinert, 2001, p. 461) and very low inflation (Baig, 2003, p. 5). Declining regulation of the financial sector and generally lax regulation led to a creditfuelled boom in the land- and asset-markets (Schrooten, 2000, p. 2). Within this process, the boom-financing bank-loans were built on collaterals of mostly land or stocks, accumulating risks in the loan books of the banks (Woo, 1999, p.7). b. “Burst” of the bubble By 1989, the Japanese stock market peaked, in 1992, land prices start to decline. Both are related to government intervention, the stock market was affected by a change of the discount rate by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the latter was influenced by a restriction of maximum loans to real estate in April 1990 (Baig, 2003, p. 8). The economic downturn in the aftermath was worsened by interconnection of bank loans and declining value of collaterals.
Book Synopsis Japan's Stagnant Nineties by : Ramana Ramaswamy
Download or read book Japan's Stagnant Nineties written by Ramana Ramaswamy and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Japan has suffered from sluggish economic growth and recession since the 1990s, a phenomenon dubbed "Japan's Lost Decade." The People's Republic of China, many countries in the eurozone, and the United States may face similar problems in future and they have been concerned by Japan's long-term recession. This paper will address why Japan's economy has stagnated since the bursting of its economic bubble. Our empirical analysis challenges the beliefs of some western economists, such as Paul Krugman, that the Japanese economy is in a liquidity trap. We argue that Japan's economic stagnation stems from a vertical IS curve rather than a liquidity trap. The impact of fiscal policy has declined drastically, and the Japanese economy faces structural problems rather than a temporary downturn. These structural problems have many causes: an aging demographic (a problem that is frequently overlooked), an over-reliance by local governments on transfers from the central government, and Basel capital requirements that have made Japanese banks reluctant to lend money to startup businesses and small and medium-sized enterprises. This latter issue has discouraged Japanese innovation and technological progress. The paper will address all these issues empirically and theoretically and will provide some remedies for Japan's long-lasting recession.
Book Synopsis Japan's Lost Decade by : Naoyuki Yoshino
Download or read book Japan's Lost Decade written by Naoyuki Yoshino and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Japan has suffered from sluggish economic growth and recession since the 1990s, a phenomenon dubbed "Japan's Lost Decade." The People's Republic of China, many countries in the eurozone, and the United States may face similar problems in future and they have been concerned by Japan's long-term recession. This paper will address why Japan's economy has stagnated since the bursting of its economic bubble. Our empirical analysis challenges the beliefs of some western economists, such as Paul Krugman, that the Japanese economy is in a liquidity trap. We argue that Japan's economic stagnation stems from a vertical IS curve rather than a liquidity trap. The impact of fiscal policy has declined drastically, and the Japanese economy faces structural problems rather than a temporary downturn. These structural problems have many causes: an aging demographic (a problem that is frequently overlooked), an over-reliance by local governments on transfers from the central government, and Basel capital requirements that have made Japanese banks reluctant to lend money to startup businesses and small and medium-sized enterprises. This latter issue has discouraged Japanese innovation and technological progress. The paper will address all these issues empirically and theoretically and will provide some remedies for Japan's long-lasting recession.
This paper analyzes portfolio diversification, leverage, and financial contagion. It studies the extent to which basic principles of portfolio diversification explain “contagious selling” of financial assets when there are purely local shocks. The paper demonstrates that the elementary portfolio theory offers key insights into “contagion.” Most important, portfolio diversification and leverage are sufficient to explain why an investor will find it optimal to significantly reduce all risky asset positions when an adverse shock impacts just one asset.
Book Synopsis IMF Staff Papers, Volume 47, No. 2 by : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Download or read book IMF Staff Papers, Volume 47, No. 2 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2000-01-01 with total page 128 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyzes portfolio diversification, leverage, and financial contagion. It studies the extent to which basic principles of portfolio diversification explain “contagious selling” of financial assets when there are purely local shocks. The paper demonstrates that the elementary portfolio theory offers key insights into “contagion.” Most important, portfolio diversification and leverage are sufficient to explain why an investor will find it optimal to significantly reduce all risky asset positions when an adverse shock impacts just one asset.
This paper provides an overview of the recent theoretical and empirical research on herd behavior in financial markets. It looks at what precisely is meant by herding, the causes of herd behavior, the success of existing studies in identifying the phenomenon, and the effect that herding has on financial markets. The paper also surveys a selected number of studies that evaluated the demand for money using the error-correction model approach in the 1990s across a range of industrial and developing countries.
Book Synopsis IMF Staff Papers, Volume 47, No. 3 by : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Download or read book IMF Staff Papers, Volume 47, No. 3 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2001-10-10 with total page 140 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides an overview of the recent theoretical and empirical research on herd behavior in financial markets. It looks at what precisely is meant by herding, the causes of herd behavior, the success of existing studies in identifying the phenomenon, and the effect that herding has on financial markets. The paper also surveys a selected number of studies that evaluated the demand for money using the error-correction model approach in the 1990s across a range of industrial and developing countries.
'Recent events have rendered Japan's lost decades all the more relevant to the rest of us. Rick Garside, in this wide-ranging and accessible account, explores the political economy of Japan's great stagnation with an eye toward describing how other advanced economies can avoid going down the same path.' – Barry Eichengreen, University of California, Berkeley, US 'Professor Garside's timely book transcends the national preoccupation suggested by its title. From one viewpoint this is a case study (admittedly on a grand scale) of the experience of one country in one historical period. But in analyzing the dynamic relationship between Japan's post-war economic miracle and its chronic stagnation from the 1990's he offers a penetrating insight into the links between profound and embedded institutional and ideological influences, global upheaval, and almost disastrous national economic performance. Hence, Japan's Great Stagnation – the unfolding story of that country's declining experience from masterful economic power to seeming economic paralysis – provides us with an all-too familiar scenario with which to approach the contemporaneous ills of the world's developed economies. The interaction between banking crises, unwieldy institutions (especially, but not only, financial institutions), policy frailties, and stagnating demand – all conspired to create crisis and then handicap or prevent recovery. And the familiarity of the story is aggravated by the global financial crisis which now threatens to engulf us. History never fully repeats itself, but Professor Garside's illuminating examination of Japan's recent experiences must surely provide important points of relevance for the world's current malaise. He is to be congratulated on the depth and scope of what he has achieved – and for its relevance to what we are experiencing.' – Barry Supple, University of Cambridge, UK This timely book presents a critical examination of the developmental premises of Japan's high-growth success and its subsequent drift into recession, stagnation and piecemeal reform. The country, which within a few decades of wartime defeat mounted a serious challenge to American hegemony, appeared incapable of fully adjusting to shifting economic circumstance once the impulses of catch-up growth and the good fortune of an accommodating international environment faded. The banking crises, spiralling government debt, and stagnant growth experienced by major industrialized nations in recent years have evoked renewed interest in Japan's economic denouement since the 1990s. To many, Japan's drift into recession and financial crisis during the early 1990s, and later into stagnation and prolonged deflation, demonstrated precisely what not to do when fashioning remedial policy. This book details the legacies of Japan's high-growth success and how they affected Japan's capacity to cope with shifting national and international circumstance from the 1980s. It reviews the contentious debates over the causes and consequences of the 'bubble economy' and the 'lost decade', and assesses the extent to which reforms since 1997 have been compromised by lingering attachments to Japan's distinctive post-war political economy. Providing an analytical overview of both the high growth and recessionary periods and of subsequent reform agendas, this timely book will appeal to students, academics and researchers of economic history, development and politics, particularly those with an interest in Japan and Asian studies more generally.
Book Synopsis Japan's Great Stagnation by : W. R. Garside
Download or read book Japan's Great Stagnation written by W. R. Garside and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2012-01-01 with total page 229 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: 'Recent events have rendered Japan's lost decades all the more relevant to the rest of us. Rick Garside, in this wide-ranging and accessible account, explores the political economy of Japan's great stagnation with an eye toward describing how other advanced economies can avoid going down the same path.' – Barry Eichengreen, University of California, Berkeley, US 'Professor Garside's timely book transcends the national preoccupation suggested by its title. From one viewpoint this is a case study (admittedly on a grand scale) of the experience of one country in one historical period. But in analyzing the dynamic relationship between Japan's post-war economic miracle and its chronic stagnation from the 1990's he offers a penetrating insight into the links between profound and embedded institutional and ideological influences, global upheaval, and almost disastrous national economic performance. Hence, Japan's Great Stagnation – the unfolding story of that country's declining experience from masterful economic power to seeming economic paralysis – provides us with an all-too familiar scenario with which to approach the contemporaneous ills of the world's developed economies. The interaction between banking crises, unwieldy institutions (especially, but not only, financial institutions), policy frailties, and stagnating demand – all conspired to create crisis and then handicap or prevent recovery. And the familiarity of the story is aggravated by the global financial crisis which now threatens to engulf us. History never fully repeats itself, but Professor Garside's illuminating examination of Japan's recent experiences must surely provide important points of relevance for the world's current malaise. He is to be congratulated on the depth and scope of what he has achieved – and for its relevance to what we are experiencing.' – Barry Supple, University of Cambridge, UK This timely book presents a critical examination of the developmental premises of Japan's high-growth success and its subsequent drift into recession, stagnation and piecemeal reform. The country, which within a few decades of wartime defeat mounted a serious challenge to American hegemony, appeared incapable of fully adjusting to shifting economic circumstance once the impulses of catch-up growth and the good fortune of an accommodating international environment faded. The banking crises, spiralling government debt, and stagnant growth experienced by major industrialized nations in recent years have evoked renewed interest in Japan's economic denouement since the 1990s. To many, Japan's drift into recession and financial crisis during the early 1990s, and later into stagnation and prolonged deflation, demonstrated precisely what not to do when fashioning remedial policy. This book details the legacies of Japan's high-growth success and how they affected Japan's capacity to cope with shifting national and international circumstance from the 1980s. It reviews the contentious debates over the causes and consequences of the 'bubble economy' and the 'lost decade', and assesses the extent to which reforms since 1997 have been compromised by lingering attachments to Japan's distinctive post-war political economy. Providing an analytical overview of both the high growth and recessionary periods and of subsequent reform agendas, this timely book will appeal to students, academics and researchers of economic history, development and politics, particularly those with an interest in Japan and Asian studies more generally.
This book contains the revised and updated versions of twelve papers which were presented at the 17th joint seminar of the faculties of economics of the Universities of Nagoya and Freiburg. The seminar took place in 1997 in Nagoya and marked the 25th anniversary of the cooperation between both faculties. The subjects of the book concentrate on long-term economic and business issues common to Japan and Germany on the turn of our century.Firstly, both countries experience continuing and interrelated problems in the labor market, budget deficits, demographic changes and the future of the social security system. Secondly, globalization, technical progress and shift of social values lead to structural changes of the economy and its institutions, particularly to deregulations and network economies. As a consequence, new ways of cooperation between firms, customers and suppliers will be established. Thirdly, the network economy changes also the inner structure and management of the companies in both countries including new organizational patterns such as the holding company or the virtual enterprise, the tight cooperation of small and medium-sized companies, human resource management and compensation.Although the broad issues in both countries - as in other mature economies - are essentially the same, the details under the surface are different and therefore ask for different solutions. The identification of these similarities and differences by theoretical and empirical methods constituted a key objective of the seminar, as well as of previous seminars.
Book Synopsis Restructuring the Economy of the 21st Century in Japan and Germany by : Franz Schober
Download or read book Restructuring the Economy of the 21st Century in Japan and Germany written by Franz Schober and published by Duncker & Humblot. This book was released on 2015 with total page 230 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book contains the revised and updated versions of twelve papers which were presented at the 17th joint seminar of the faculties of economics of the Universities of Nagoya and Freiburg. The seminar took place in 1997 in Nagoya and marked the 25th anniversary of the cooperation between both faculties. The subjects of the book concentrate on long-term economic and business issues common to Japan and Germany on the turn of our century.Firstly, both countries experience continuing and interrelated problems in the labor market, budget deficits, demographic changes and the future of the social security system. Secondly, globalization, technical progress and shift of social values lead to structural changes of the economy and its institutions, particularly to deregulations and network economies. As a consequence, new ways of cooperation between firms, customers and suppliers will be established. Thirdly, the network economy changes also the inner structure and management of the companies in both countries including new organizational patterns such as the holding company or the virtual enterprise, the tight cooperation of small and medium-sized companies, human resource management and compensation.Although the broad issues in both countries - as in other mature economies - are essentially the same, the details under the surface are different and therefore ask for different solutions. The identification of these similarities and differences by theoretical and empirical methods constituted a key objective of the seminar, as well as of previous seminars.
The global centre of gravity continues to shift to the Asia-Pacific, the most dynamic region in the world. These economies have generally grown faster for longer periods of time than any other major region in world history. Their embrace of globalization has been a central feature, and driver, of their dynamism. The management of Asia-Pacific economic integration and globalization is crucial not only for the countries themselves but also for the state of the global economy, including importantly latecomer developing economies who look to the region for analytical and development policy lessons. Twenty-eight leading international authorities in the field, drawn from nine countries, provide a comprehensive examination of the causes, consequences and challenges of globalization, in a volume that celebrates the distinguished career of Professor Prema-Chandra Athukorala. Among the major issues examined are the region’s distinctive approach to trade liberalization, the effects of economic growth on poverty reduction and the labour market, the special challenges of by-passed regions, the role of ideas in influencing policy making, the modalities of connecting to global production networks, and the importance of remittances in economic development. Several country case studies provide in-depth analyses of development processes and outcomes. These include episodes in economic development, the challenges faced by transition economies, the macroeconomics of adjusting to slower growth and rising debt in advanced economies, and the so-called middle-income trap phenomenon.
Book Synopsis Managing Globalization in the Asian Century by : Hal Hill
Download or read book Managing Globalization in the Asian Century written by Hal Hill and published by ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute. This book was released on 2016-11-16 with total page 537 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global centre of gravity continues to shift to the Asia-Pacific, the most dynamic region in the world. These economies have generally grown faster for longer periods of time than any other major region in world history. Their embrace of globalization has been a central feature, and driver, of their dynamism. The management of Asia-Pacific economic integration and globalization is crucial not only for the countries themselves but also for the state of the global economy, including importantly latecomer developing economies who look to the region for analytical and development policy lessons. Twenty-eight leading international authorities in the field, drawn from nine countries, provide a comprehensive examination of the causes, consequences and challenges of globalization, in a volume that celebrates the distinguished career of Professor Prema-Chandra Athukorala. Among the major issues examined are the region’s distinctive approach to trade liberalization, the effects of economic growth on poverty reduction and the labour market, the special challenges of by-passed regions, the role of ideas in influencing policy making, the modalities of connecting to global production networks, and the importance of remittances in economic development. Several country case studies provide in-depth analyses of development processes and outcomes. These include episodes in economic development, the challenges faced by transition economies, the macroeconomics of adjusting to slower growth and rising debt in advanced economies, and the so-called middle-income trap phenomenon.
This 1999 Article IV Consultation highlights that Japanese growth has been lackluster throughout most of the 1990s. Since the asset price bubble burst in 1991, the economy has grown at an average of 1 percent per year, in striking contrast to the rapid growth achieved in previous decades. A series of fiscal stimulus packages raised the structural general government deficit by more than 5 percentage points of GDP between FY1991 and FY1998, while monetary policy has progressively eased.
Book Synopsis Japan by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book Japan written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1999-08-13 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This 1999 Article IV Consultation highlights that Japanese growth has been lackluster throughout most of the 1990s. Since the asset price bubble burst in 1991, the economy has grown at an average of 1 percent per year, in striking contrast to the rapid growth achieved in previous decades. A series of fiscal stimulus packages raised the structural general government deficit by more than 5 percentage points of GDP between FY1991 and FY1998, while monetary policy has progressively eased.
