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This document provides a critical review of different frameworks for uncertainty analysis, in a risk analysis context : classical probabilistic analysis, imprecise probability (interval analysis), probability bound analysis, evidence theory, and possibility theory. The driver of the critical analysis is the decision-making process and the need to feed it with representative information derived from the risk assessment, to robustly support the decision. Technical details of the different frameworks are exposed only to the extent necessary to analyze and judge how these contribute to the communication of risk and the representation of the associated uncertainties to decision-makers, in the typical settings of high-consequence risk analysis of complex systems with limited knowledge on their behaviour.
Book Synopsis Literature review of methods for representing uncertainty by : Enrico Zio
Download or read book Literature review of methods for representing uncertainty written by Enrico Zio and published by FonCSI. This book was released on 2013-03-01 with total page 61 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This document provides a critical review of different frameworks for uncertainty analysis, in a risk analysis context : classical probabilistic analysis, imprecise probability (interval analysis), probability bound analysis, evidence theory, and possibility theory. The driver of the critical analysis is the decision-making process and the need to feed it with representative information derived from the risk assessment, to robustly support the decision. Technical details of the different frameworks are exposed only to the extent necessary to analyze and judge how these contribute to the communication of risk and the representation of the associated uncertainties to decision-makers, in the typical settings of high-consequence risk analysis of complex systems with limited knowledge on their behaviour.
Explores methods for the representation and treatment of uncertainty in risk assessment In providing guidance for practical decision-making situations concerning high-consequence technologies (e.g., nuclear, oil and gas, transport, etc.), the theories and methods studied in Uncertainty in Risk Assessment have wide-ranging applications from engineering and medicine to environmental impacts and natural disasters, security, and financial risk management. The main focus, however, is on engineering applications. While requiring some fundamental background in risk assessment, as well as a basic knowledge of probability theory and statistics, Uncertainty in Risk Assessment can be read profitably by a broad audience of professionals in the field, including researchers and graduate students on courses within risk analysis, statistics, engineering, and the physical sciences. Uncertainty in Risk Assessment: Illustrates the need for seeing beyond probability to represent uncertainties in risk assessment contexts. Provides simple explanations (supported by straightforward numerical examples) of the meaning of different types of probabilities, including interval probabilities, and the fundamentals of possibility theory and evidence theory. Offers guidance on when to use probability and when to use an alternative representation of uncertainty. Presents and discusses methods for the representation and characterization of uncertainty in risk assessment. Uses examples to clearly illustrate ideas and concepts.
Book Synopsis Uncertainty in Risk Assessment by : Terje Aven
Download or read book Uncertainty in Risk Assessment written by Terje Aven and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2013-12-17 with total page 152 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Explores methods for the representation and treatment of uncertainty in risk assessment In providing guidance for practical decision-making situations concerning high-consequence technologies (e.g., nuclear, oil and gas, transport, etc.), the theories and methods studied in Uncertainty in Risk Assessment have wide-ranging applications from engineering and medicine to environmental impacts and natural disasters, security, and financial risk management. The main focus, however, is on engineering applications. While requiring some fundamental background in risk assessment, as well as a basic knowledge of probability theory and statistics, Uncertainty in Risk Assessment can be read profitably by a broad audience of professionals in the field, including researchers and graduate students on courses within risk analysis, statistics, engineering, and the physical sciences. Uncertainty in Risk Assessment: Illustrates the need for seeing beyond probability to represent uncertainties in risk assessment contexts. Provides simple explanations (supported by straightforward numerical examples) of the meaning of different types of probabilities, including interval probabilities, and the fundamentals of possibility theory and evidence theory. Offers guidance on when to use probability and when to use an alternative representation of uncertainty. Presents and discusses methods for the representation and characterization of uncertainty in risk assessment. Uses examples to clearly illustrate ideas and concepts.
The public depends on competent risk assessment from the federal government and the scientific community to grapple with the threat of pollution. When risk reports turn out to be overblownâ€"or when risks are overlookedâ€"public skepticism abounds. This comprehensive and readable book explores how the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) can improve its risk assessment practices, with a focus on implementation of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments. With a wealth of detailed information, pertinent examples, and revealing analysis, the volume explores the "default option" and other basic concepts. It offers two views of EPA operations: The first examines how EPA currently assesses exposure to hazardous air pollutants, evaluates the toxicity of a substance, and characterizes the risk to the public. The second, more holistic, view explores how EPA can improve in several critical areas of risk assessment by focusing on cross-cutting themes and incorporating more scientific judgment. This comprehensive volume will be important to the EPA and other agencies, risk managers, environmental advocates, scientists, faculty, students, and concerned individuals.
Book Synopsis Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment by : National Research Council
Download or read book Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1994-01-01 with total page 668 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The public depends on competent risk assessment from the federal government and the scientific community to grapple with the threat of pollution. When risk reports turn out to be overblownâ€"or when risks are overlookedâ€"public skepticism abounds. This comprehensive and readable book explores how the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) can improve its risk assessment practices, with a focus on implementation of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments. With a wealth of detailed information, pertinent examples, and revealing analysis, the volume explores the "default option" and other basic concepts. It offers two views of EPA operations: The first examines how EPA currently assesses exposure to hazardous air pollutants, evaluates the toxicity of a substance, and characterizes the risk to the public. The second, more holistic, view explores how EPA can improve in several critical areas of risk assessment by focusing on cross-cutting themes and incorporating more scientific judgment. This comprehensive volume will be important to the EPA and other agencies, risk managers, environmental advocates, scientists, faculty, students, and concerned individuals.
Model Validation and Uncertainty Quantification, Volume 3: Proceedings of the 35th IMAC, A Conference and Exposition on Structural Dynamics, 2017, the third volume of ten from the Conference brings together contributions to this important area of research and engineering. The collection presents early findings and case studies on fundamental and applied aspects of Model Validation and Uncertainty Quantification, including papers on: Uncertainty Quantification in Material Models Uncertainty Propagation in Structural Dynamics Practical Applications of MVUQ Advances in Model Validation & Uncertainty Quantification: Model Updating Model Validation & Uncertainty Quantification: Industrial Applications Controlling Uncertainty Uncertainty in Early Stage Design Modeling of Musical Instruments Overview of Model Validation and Uncertainty
Book Synopsis Model Validation and Uncertainty Quantification, Volume 3 by : Robert Barthorpe
Download or read book Model Validation and Uncertainty Quantification, Volume 3 written by Robert Barthorpe and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-06-07 with total page 378 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Model Validation and Uncertainty Quantification, Volume 3: Proceedings of the 35th IMAC, A Conference and Exposition on Structural Dynamics, 2017, the third volume of ten from the Conference brings together contributions to this important area of research and engineering. The collection presents early findings and case studies on fundamental and applied aspects of Model Validation and Uncertainty Quantification, including papers on: Uncertainty Quantification in Material Models Uncertainty Propagation in Structural Dynamics Practical Applications of MVUQ Advances in Model Validation & Uncertainty Quantification: Model Updating Model Validation & Uncertainty Quantification: Industrial Applications Controlling Uncertainty Uncertainty in Early Stage Design Modeling of Musical Instruments Overview of Model Validation and Uncertainty
The authors investigate the effects that different representations of epistemic uncertainty have on practical risk assessment problems. Two different application problems are considered: 1. the estimation of component importance measures in the presence of epistemic uncertainties; 2. the propagation of uncertainties through a risk flooding model. The focus is on the epistemic uncertainty affecting the parameters of the models that describe the components’ failures due to incomplete knowledge of their values. This epistemic uncertainty is represented using probability distributions when sufficient data is available for statistical analysis, and by possibility distributions when the information available to define the parameters’ values comes from experts, in the form of imprecise quantitative statements or judgments. Three case studies of increasing complexity are presented: a pedagogical example of importance measure assessment on a three-component system from the literature; assessment of importance measures for the auxiliary feed water system of a nuclear pressurized water reactor; an application in environmental modelling, with an analysis of uncertainty propagation in a hydraulic model for the risk-based design of a flood protection dike.
Book Synopsis Uncertainty propagation and importance measure assessment by : Enrico Zio
Download or read book Uncertainty propagation and importance measure assessment written by Enrico Zio and published by FonCSI. This book was released on 2013-12-14 with total page 69 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The authors investigate the effects that different representations of epistemic uncertainty have on practical risk assessment problems. Two different application problems are considered: 1. the estimation of component importance measures in the presence of epistemic uncertainties; 2. the propagation of uncertainties through a risk flooding model. The focus is on the epistemic uncertainty affecting the parameters of the models that describe the components’ failures due to incomplete knowledge of their values. This epistemic uncertainty is represented using probability distributions when sufficient data is available for statistical analysis, and by possibility distributions when the information available to define the parameters’ values comes from experts, in the form of imprecise quantitative statements or judgments. Three case studies of increasing complexity are presented: a pedagogical example of importance measure assessment on a three-component system from the literature; assessment of importance measures for the auxiliary feed water system of a nuclear pressurized water reactor; an application in environmental modelling, with an analysis of uncertainty propagation in a hydraulic model for the risk-based design of a flood protection dike.
Project success is an elusive goal in every business or technical domain. Project failure usually results from unhandled risks to the technical, cost, and schedule aspects of the project. There are four primary root causes of project failure. Unrealistic performance expectation, with missing Measures of Effectiveness Unrealistic cost and schedule estimates based on inadequate risk adjusted growth models Inadequate assessment of risk and unmitigated exposure to these risks without proper handling strategies Unanticipated technical issues with alternative plans and solutions to maintain the effectiveness of the project processes and its deliverables Risk Management provides a comprehensive overview of the people, principles, processes, and practices as the fundamental base upon which an effective risk management system resides. However, this does not guarantee effective risk management and successful projects and businesses. The first half of the book describes risk management processes, as well as a delineation between risk and hazards and how these are connected. The second half of the book provides industry examples of the approach to risk management in specific context and with specific approaches and artifacts where applicable. The book focuses on risks created by uncertainty, their identification, and the corrective and preventive actions needed to address these risks to increase the probability of project success. The book’s goal is to provide a context-driven framework, developing a foundation for a rational approach to risk management that makes adaptation to circumstances as easy as possible.
Book Synopsis Risk Management by : Glen B. Alleman
Download or read book Risk Management written by Glen B. Alleman and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2024-03-15 with total page 331 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Project success is an elusive goal in every business or technical domain. Project failure usually results from unhandled risks to the technical, cost, and schedule aspects of the project. There are four primary root causes of project failure. Unrealistic performance expectation, with missing Measures of Effectiveness Unrealistic cost and schedule estimates based on inadequate risk adjusted growth models Inadequate assessment of risk and unmitigated exposure to these risks without proper handling strategies Unanticipated technical issues with alternative plans and solutions to maintain the effectiveness of the project processes and its deliverables Risk Management provides a comprehensive overview of the people, principles, processes, and practices as the fundamental base upon which an effective risk management system resides. However, this does not guarantee effective risk management and successful projects and businesses. The first half of the book describes risk management processes, as well as a delineation between risk and hazards and how these are connected. The second half of the book provides industry examples of the approach to risk management in specific context and with specific approaches and artifacts where applicable. The book focuses on risks created by uncertainty, their identification, and the corrective and preventive actions needed to address these risks to increase the probability of project success. The book’s goal is to provide a context-driven framework, developing a foundation for a rational approach to risk management that makes adaptation to circumstances as easy as possible.
The events of September 11, 2001 changed perceptions, rearranged national priorities, and produced significant new government entities, including the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) created in 2003. While the principal mission of DHS is to lead efforts to secure the nation against those forces that wish to do harm, the department also has responsibilities in regard to preparation for and response to other hazards and disasters, such as floods, earthquakes, and other "natural" disasters. Whether in the context of preparedness, response or recovery from terrorism, illegal entry to the country, or natural disasters, DHS is committed to processes and methods that feature risk assessment as a critical component for making better-informed decisions. Review of the Department of Homeland Security's Approach to Risk Analysis explores how DHS is building its capabilities in risk analysis to inform decision making. The department uses risk analysis to inform decisions ranging from high-level policy choices to fine-scale protocols that guide the minute-by-minute actions of DHS employees. Although DHS is responsible for mitigating a range of threats, natural disasters, and pandemics, its risk analysis efforts are weighted heavily toward terrorism. In addition to assessing the capability of DHS risk analysis methods to support decision-making, the book evaluates the quality of the current approach to estimating risk and discusses how to improve current risk analysis procedures. Review of the Department of Homeland Security's Approach to Risk Analysis recommends that DHS continue to build its integrated risk management framework. It also suggests that the department improve the way models are developed and used and follow time-tested scientific practices, among other recommendations.
Book Synopsis Review of the Department of Homeland Security's Approach to Risk Analysis by : National Research Council
Download or read book Review of the Department of Homeland Security's Approach to Risk Analysis written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2010-10-10 with total page 160 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The events of September 11, 2001 changed perceptions, rearranged national priorities, and produced significant new government entities, including the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) created in 2003. While the principal mission of DHS is to lead efforts to secure the nation against those forces that wish to do harm, the department also has responsibilities in regard to preparation for and response to other hazards and disasters, such as floods, earthquakes, and other "natural" disasters. Whether in the context of preparedness, response or recovery from terrorism, illegal entry to the country, or natural disasters, DHS is committed to processes and methods that feature risk assessment as a critical component for making better-informed decisions. Review of the Department of Homeland Security's Approach to Risk Analysis explores how DHS is building its capabilities in risk analysis to inform decision making. The department uses risk analysis to inform decisions ranging from high-level policy choices to fine-scale protocols that guide the minute-by-minute actions of DHS employees. Although DHS is responsible for mitigating a range of threats, natural disasters, and pandemics, its risk analysis efforts are weighted heavily toward terrorism. In addition to assessing the capability of DHS risk analysis methods to support decision-making, the book evaluates the quality of the current approach to estimating risk and discusses how to improve current risk analysis procedures. Review of the Department of Homeland Security's Approach to Risk Analysis recommends that DHS continue to build its integrated risk management framework. It also suggests that the department improve the way models are developed and used and follow time-tested scientific practices, among other recommendations.
Introduces Bayesian methods and their implementation in application ranging from pointing-based interfaces to modelling cognitive processes.
Book Synopsis Bayesian Methods for Interaction and Design by : John H. Williamson
Download or read book Bayesian Methods for Interaction and Design written by John H. Williamson and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2022-08-25 with total page 373 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Introduces Bayesian methods and their implementation in application ranging from pointing-based interfaces to modelling cognitive processes.
Maintenance combines various methods, tools, and techniques in a bid to reduce maintenance costs while increasing the reliability, availability, and security of equipment. Condition-based maintenance (CBM) is one such method, and prognostics forms a key element of a CBM program based on mathematical models for predicting remaining useful life (RUL). Prognostics and Remaining Useful Life (RUL) Estimation: Predicting with Confidence compares the techniques and models used to estimate the RUL of different assets, including a review of the relevant literature on prognostic techniques and their use in the industrial field. This book describes different approaches and prognosis methods for different assets backed up by appropriate case studies. FEATURES Presents a compendium of RUL estimation methods and technologies used in predictive maintenance Describes different approaches and prognosis methods for different assets Includes a comprehensive compilation of methods from model-based and data-driven to hybrid Discusses the benchmarking of RUL estimation methods according to accuracy and uncertainty, depending on the target application, the type of asset, and the forecast performance expected Contains a toolset of methods and a way of deployment aimed at a versatile audience This book is aimed at professionals, senior undergraduates, and graduate students in all interdisciplinary engineering streams that focus on prognosis and maintenance.
Book Synopsis Prognostics and Remaining Useful Life (RUL) Estimation by : Diego Galar
Download or read book Prognostics and Remaining Useful Life (RUL) Estimation written by Diego Galar and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2021-12-15 with total page 489 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Maintenance combines various methods, tools, and techniques in a bid to reduce maintenance costs while increasing the reliability, availability, and security of equipment. Condition-based maintenance (CBM) is one such method, and prognostics forms a key element of a CBM program based on mathematical models for predicting remaining useful life (RUL). Prognostics and Remaining Useful Life (RUL) Estimation: Predicting with Confidence compares the techniques and models used to estimate the RUL of different assets, including a review of the relevant literature on prognostic techniques and their use in the industrial field. This book describes different approaches and prognosis methods for different assets backed up by appropriate case studies. FEATURES Presents a compendium of RUL estimation methods and technologies used in predictive maintenance Describes different approaches and prognosis methods for different assets Includes a comprehensive compilation of methods from model-based and data-driven to hybrid Discusses the benchmarking of RUL estimation methods according to accuracy and uncertainty, depending on the target application, the type of asset, and the forecast performance expected Contains a toolset of methods and a way of deployment aimed at a versatile audience This book is aimed at professionals, senior undergraduates, and graduate students in all interdisciplinary engineering streams that focus on prognosis and maintenance.
This book constitutes the full papers and short monographs developed on the base of the refereed proceedings of the International Conference on Information Technologies: Information and Communication Technologies for Research and Industry (ICIT-2019), held in Saratov, Russia in February 2019. The book brings accepted papers which present new approaches and methods of solving problems in the sphere of control engineering and decision making for the various fields of studies: industry and research, ontology-based data simulation, smart city technologies, theory and use of digital signal processing, cognitive systems, robotics, cybernetics, automation control theory, image recognition technologies, and computer vision. Particular emphasis is laid on modern trends, new approaches, algorithms and methods in selected fields of interest. The presented papers were accepted after careful reviews made by at least three independent reviewers in a double-blind way. The acceptance level was about 60%. The chapters are organized thematically in several areas within the following tracks: • Models, Methods & Approaches in Decision Making Systems • Mathematical Modelling for Industry & Research • Smart City Technologies The conference is focused on development and globalization of information and communication technologies (ICT), methods of control engineering and decision making along with innovations and networking, ICT for sustainable development and technological change, and global challenges. Moreover, the ICIT-2019 served as a discussion area for the actual above-mentioned topics. The editors believe that the readers will find the proceedings interesting and useful for their own research work.
Book Synopsis Recent Research in Control Engineering and Decision Making by : Olga Dolinina
Download or read book Recent Research in Control Engineering and Decision Making written by Olga Dolinina and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-01-28 with total page 771 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book constitutes the full papers and short monographs developed on the base of the refereed proceedings of the International Conference on Information Technologies: Information and Communication Technologies for Research and Industry (ICIT-2019), held in Saratov, Russia in February 2019. The book brings accepted papers which present new approaches and methods of solving problems in the sphere of control engineering and decision making for the various fields of studies: industry and research, ontology-based data simulation, smart city technologies, theory and use of digital signal processing, cognitive systems, robotics, cybernetics, automation control theory, image recognition technologies, and computer vision. Particular emphasis is laid on modern trends, new approaches, algorithms and methods in selected fields of interest. The presented papers were accepted after careful reviews made by at least three independent reviewers in a double-blind way. The acceptance level was about 60%. The chapters are organized thematically in several areas within the following tracks: • Models, Methods & Approaches in Decision Making Systems • Mathematical Modelling for Industry & Research • Smart City Technologies The conference is focused on development and globalization of information and communication technologies (ICT), methods of control engineering and decision making along with innovations and networking, ICT for sustainable development and technological change, and global challenges. Moreover, the ICIT-2019 served as a discussion area for the actual above-mentioned topics. The editors believe that the readers will find the proceedings interesting and useful for their own research work.
