Middle East and North Africa Economic Monitor, October 2016

Middle East and North Africa Economic Monitor, October 2016

Author: Shantayanan Devarajan

Publisher:

Published: 2016

Total Pages:

ISBN-13:

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The year 2016 appears to be one of the toughest for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region as their governments face serious policy challenges. The biggest challenge for oil exporters is managing their finances and diversification strategies with oil below USD 45 a barrel. Fiscal consolidation in a difficult sociopolitical environment and spillovers from conflicts are creating challenges for oil importers as well. Real GOP growth in MENA for 2016 is projected to fall to its lowest level since 2013 -- 2.3 percent -- lower than last year's growth by half a percentage point and about one percentage point lower than predicted in April 2016. It is clear that the disappointing performance of the MENA economies, and possibly the global economy, is partly due to the rise of terrorist attacks and spread of violent extremism. In this report, we attempt to shed light on the underlying causes of this phenomenon by applying an economic perspective to the demand for and supply of violent extremists. Looking at a dataset on foreign fighters joining Daesh, we find that the factors most strongly associated with foreign individuals' joining Daesh have to do with a lack of inclusion -- economic, social and religious -- in their country of origin. Promoting greater inclusion, therefore, could not only bring down the level of violent extremism, but it could improve economic performance in the MENA region.


Book Synopsis Middle East and North Africa Economic Monitor, October 2016 by : Shantayanan Devarajan

Download or read book Middle East and North Africa Economic Monitor, October 2016 written by Shantayanan Devarajan and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The year 2016 appears to be one of the toughest for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region as their governments face serious policy challenges. The biggest challenge for oil exporters is managing their finances and diversification strategies with oil below USD 45 a barrel. Fiscal consolidation in a difficult sociopolitical environment and spillovers from conflicts are creating challenges for oil importers as well. Real GOP growth in MENA for 2016 is projected to fall to its lowest level since 2013 -- 2.3 percent -- lower than last year's growth by half a percentage point and about one percentage point lower than predicted in April 2016. It is clear that the disappointing performance of the MENA economies, and possibly the global economy, is partly due to the rise of terrorist attacks and spread of violent extremism. In this report, we attempt to shed light on the underlying causes of this phenomenon by applying an economic perspective to the demand for and supply of violent extremists. Looking at a dataset on foreign fighters joining Daesh, we find that the factors most strongly associated with foreign individuals' joining Daesh have to do with a lack of inclusion -- economic, social and religious -- in their country of origin. Promoting greater inclusion, therefore, could not only bring down the level of violent extremism, but it could improve economic performance in the MENA region.

Middle East and North Africa Economic Monitor, October 2018

Middle East and North Africa Economic Monitor, October 2018

Author: Rabah Arezki

Publisher: World Bank Publications

Published: 2018-10-03

Total Pages: 98

ISBN-13: 1464813671

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"After a sharp fall in 2017, economic growth in MENA is projected to rebound to 3.1 percent in 2018, thanks to the positive global outlook, oil prices stabilizing at relatively higher levels, stabilization policies and reforms, and recovery and reconstruction as conflicts recede. The outlook for MENA remains positive, and the growth rebound is expected to gain momentum over the next two years, exceeding 3 percent in 2020. While stabilization policies have helped economies adjust in recent years, .a second phase of reforms is needed should be transformative if the region is to reach its potential and create jobs for hundred million young people who will enter the labor market in coming decades. In this report, we explore the role that public-private partnerships can play. not only in providing an alternative source of financing but in helping change the role of the state from the main provider of employment to an enabler of private sector activity. Studies have shown that the gap between MENA economies and fast-growing ones is the performance of the services sector. The disruptive technology offers new opportunities for boosting private-sector-led growth through enhancement of high-tech jobs in the services sector. The report argues that combining the region's fast-growing pool of university graduates and a heavy penetration of social media and smartphone, could serve as the foundation for a digital sector that could create much-needed private sector jobs for the youth over the next decade."


Book Synopsis Middle East and North Africa Economic Monitor, October 2018 by : Rabah Arezki

Download or read book Middle East and North Africa Economic Monitor, October 2018 written by Rabah Arezki and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2018-10-03 with total page 98 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "After a sharp fall in 2017, economic growth in MENA is projected to rebound to 3.1 percent in 2018, thanks to the positive global outlook, oil prices stabilizing at relatively higher levels, stabilization policies and reforms, and recovery and reconstruction as conflicts recede. The outlook for MENA remains positive, and the growth rebound is expected to gain momentum over the next two years, exceeding 3 percent in 2020. While stabilization policies have helped economies adjust in recent years, .a second phase of reforms is needed should be transformative if the region is to reach its potential and create jobs for hundred million young people who will enter the labor market in coming decades. In this report, we explore the role that public-private partnerships can play. not only in providing an alternative source of financing but in helping change the role of the state from the main provider of employment to an enabler of private sector activity. Studies have shown that the gap between MENA economies and fast-growing ones is the performance of the services sector. The disruptive technology offers new opportunities for boosting private-sector-led growth through enhancement of high-tech jobs in the services sector. The report argues that combining the region's fast-growing pool of university graduates and a heavy penetration of social media and smartphone, could serve as the foundation for a digital sector that could create much-needed private sector jobs for the youth over the next decade."

Middle East and North Africa Economic Monitor, October 2016

Middle East and North Africa Economic Monitor, October 2016

Author: Devarajan, Shantayanan

Publisher: World Bank Publications

Published: 2016-08-23

Total Pages: 76

ISBN-13: 1464809909

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"The year 2016 appears to be one of the toughest for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region as their governments face serious policy challenges. The biggest challenge for oil exporters is managing their finances and diversification strategies with oil below $45 a barrel. Fiscal consolidation in a difficult sociopolitical environment and spillovers from conflicts are creating challenges for oil importers as well. Real GOP growth in MENA for 2016 is projected to fall to its lowest level since 2013 -- 2.3 percent -- lower than last year's growth by half a percentage point and about one percentage point lower than predicted in April 2016. It is clear that the disappointing performance of the MENA economies, and possibly the global economy, is partly due to the rise of terrorist attacks and spread of violent extremism. In this report, we attempt to shed light on the underlying causes of this phenomenon by applying an economic perspective to the demand for and supply of violent extremists. Looking at a dataset on foreign fighters joining Daesh, we find that the factors most strongly associated with foreign individuals' joining Daesh have to do with a lack of inclusion -- economic, social and religious -- in their country of origin. Promoting greater inclusion, therefore, could not only bring down the level of violent extremism, but it could improve economic performance in the MENA region."


Book Synopsis Middle East and North Africa Economic Monitor, October 2016 by : Devarajan, Shantayanan

Download or read book Middle East and North Africa Economic Monitor, October 2016 written by Devarajan, Shantayanan and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2016-08-23 with total page 76 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The year 2016 appears to be one of the toughest for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region as their governments face serious policy challenges. The biggest challenge for oil exporters is managing their finances and diversification strategies with oil below $45 a barrel. Fiscal consolidation in a difficult sociopolitical environment and spillovers from conflicts are creating challenges for oil importers as well. Real GOP growth in MENA for 2016 is projected to fall to its lowest level since 2013 -- 2.3 percent -- lower than last year's growth by half a percentage point and about one percentage point lower than predicted in April 2016. It is clear that the disappointing performance of the MENA economies, and possibly the global economy, is partly due to the rise of terrorist attacks and spread of violent extremism. In this report, we attempt to shed light on the underlying causes of this phenomenon by applying an economic perspective to the demand for and supply of violent extremists. Looking at a dataset on foreign fighters joining Daesh, we find that the factors most strongly associated with foreign individuals' joining Daesh have to do with a lack of inclusion -- economic, social and religious -- in their country of origin. Promoting greater inclusion, therefore, could not only bring down the level of violent extremism, but it could improve economic performance in the MENA region."

Middle East and North Africa Economic Monitor, October 2016

Middle East and North Africa Economic Monitor, October 2016

Author: Shantayanan Devarajan

Publisher:

Published: 2016

Total Pages: 55

ISBN-13:

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The year 2016 appears to be one of the toughest for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region as their governments face serious policy challenges. The biggest challenge for oil exporters is managing their finances and diversification strategies with oil below. 45 a barrel. Fiscal consolidation in a difficult sociopolitical environment and spillovers from conflicts are creating challenges for oil importers as well. Real GOP growth in MENA for 2016 is projected to fall to its lowest level since 2013 -- 2.3 percent -- lower than last year's growth by half a percentage point and about one percentage point lower than predicted in April 2016. It is clear that the disappointing performance of the MENA economies, and possibly the global economy, is partly due to the rise of terrorist attacks and spread of violent extremism. In this report, we attempt to shed light on the underlying causes of this phenomenon by applying an economic perspective to the demand for and supply of violent extremists. Looking at a dataset on foreign fighters joining Daesh, we find that the factors most strongly associated with foreign individuals' joining Daesh have to do with a lack of inclusion -- economic, social and religious -- in their country of origin. Promoting greater inclusion, therefore, could not only bring down the level of violent extremism, but it could improve economic performance in the MENA region


Book Synopsis Middle East and North Africa Economic Monitor, October 2016 by : Shantayanan Devarajan

Download or read book Middle East and North Africa Economic Monitor, October 2016 written by Shantayanan Devarajan and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 55 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The year 2016 appears to be one of the toughest for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region as their governments face serious policy challenges. The biggest challenge for oil exporters is managing their finances and diversification strategies with oil below. 45 a barrel. Fiscal consolidation in a difficult sociopolitical environment and spillovers from conflicts are creating challenges for oil importers as well. Real GOP growth in MENA for 2016 is projected to fall to its lowest level since 2013 -- 2.3 percent -- lower than last year's growth by half a percentage point and about one percentage point lower than predicted in April 2016. It is clear that the disappointing performance of the MENA economies, and possibly the global economy, is partly due to the rise of terrorist attacks and spread of violent extremism. In this report, we attempt to shed light on the underlying causes of this phenomenon by applying an economic perspective to the demand for and supply of violent extremists. Looking at a dataset on foreign fighters joining Daesh, we find that the factors most strongly associated with foreign individuals' joining Daesh have to do with a lack of inclusion -- economic, social and religious -- in their country of origin. Promoting greater inclusion, therefore, could not only bring down the level of violent extremism, but it could improve economic performance in the MENA region

Middle East and North Africa Economic Monitor April 2016

Middle East and North Africa Economic Monitor April 2016

Author: Shantayanan Devarajan

Publisher: World Bank Publications

Published: 2016-04-11

Total Pages: 70

ISBN-13: 1464809070

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The short term economic outlook for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region remains “cautiously pessimistic†?. A combination of civil wars and refugee inflows, terrorist attacks, cheap oil, and subdued global economic recovery is expected to keep average growth in the MENA region around 3 percent in 2016, for the fourth year in a row. Furthermore, the humanitarian and economic situation in the war torn countries keep deteriorating. In this report we will explore ways in which a strategy of reconstruction of Syria—the most war-ravaged country in the region—could help foster a sustainable peace. This report argues that the impact of the civil war on the Syrian society will be persistent, and the challenges facing the country need to be addressed now. The report calls for the international community to be the guarantor of an inclusive reconstruction strategy that not only makes peace sustainable tomorrow, but makes it happen today: peace and reconstruction are two sides of the same coin.


Book Synopsis Middle East and North Africa Economic Monitor April 2016 by : Shantayanan Devarajan

Download or read book Middle East and North Africa Economic Monitor April 2016 written by Shantayanan Devarajan and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2016-04-11 with total page 70 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The short term economic outlook for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region remains “cautiously pessimistic†?. A combination of civil wars and refugee inflows, terrorist attacks, cheap oil, and subdued global economic recovery is expected to keep average growth in the MENA region around 3 percent in 2016, for the fourth year in a row. Furthermore, the humanitarian and economic situation in the war torn countries keep deteriorating. In this report we will explore ways in which a strategy of reconstruction of Syria—the most war-ravaged country in the region—could help foster a sustainable peace. This report argues that the impact of the civil war on the Syrian society will be persistent, and the challenges facing the country need to be addressed now. The report calls for the international community to be the guarantor of an inclusive reconstruction strategy that not only makes peace sustainable tomorrow, but makes it happen today: peace and reconstruction are two sides of the same coin.

MENA Quarterly Economic Brief January 2016

MENA Quarterly Economic Brief January 2016

Author: Shantayanan Devarajan

Publisher: World Bank Publications

Published: 2016-01-29

Total Pages: 44

ISBN-13: 1464808228

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This issue of the World Bank MENA Quarterly Economic Brief expects growth in the Middle East and North Africa to fall to 2.6 percent in 2015, from 2.8 percent predicted in October. The short term outlook remains “cautiously pessimistic†?. The poor performance of several MENA economies and their dim prospects for the future are mainly driven by the civil wars that have created death, destruction and significant growth shortfalls in both conflict countries and their neighbors. This report examines the different ways in which civil wars affect the economies of the region, including the important channel of forced displacement, which has become a crisis. Moreover, we explore how economic fortunes will turn around if there is peace. The report concludes that under peace settlement, a permanent transition from non democracy to democracy could improve economic growth significantly in the long run.


Book Synopsis MENA Quarterly Economic Brief January 2016 by : Shantayanan Devarajan

Download or read book MENA Quarterly Economic Brief January 2016 written by Shantayanan Devarajan and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2016-01-29 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This issue of the World Bank MENA Quarterly Economic Brief expects growth in the Middle East and North Africa to fall to 2.6 percent in 2015, from 2.8 percent predicted in October. The short term outlook remains “cautiously pessimistic†?. The poor performance of several MENA economies and their dim prospects for the future are mainly driven by the civil wars that have created death, destruction and significant growth shortfalls in both conflict countries and their neighbors. This report examines the different ways in which civil wars affect the economies of the region, including the important channel of forced displacement, which has become a crisis. Moreover, we explore how economic fortunes will turn around if there is peace. The report concludes that under peace settlement, a permanent transition from non democracy to democracy could improve economic growth significantly in the long run.

Middle East and North Africa Economic Monitor, October 2014

Middle East and North Africa Economic Monitor, October 2014

Author: Shantayanan Devarajan

Publisher: World Bank Publications

Published: 2014-11-10

Total Pages: 54

ISBN-13: 1464804427

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The economic outlook for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region in 2015 is slightly more favorable than in 2013-14, when the region as a whole grew at 3 percent a year. The World Bank group’s latest MENA Economic Monitor projects MENA’s economic growth to average 5.2 percent in 2015 driven by domestic consumption, easing political tensions crowding-in investments in Egypt and Tunisia, and full resumption of oil production in Libya. However the violent conflicts in Syria, Iraq, Gaza, Yemen and Libya with their spillovers to Lebanon and Jordan could make MENA’s economic prospects bleak. The report has a special focus on the corrosive nature of the large energy subsidies in MENA. The MENA region is currently experiencing growth below potential, high unemployment, urban air pollution and congestion, and severe water scarcity that is undermining agriculture. The report shows how energy subsidies have contributed to these development challenges. Reforming these subsidies, therefore, should be one of the highest priorities of policymakers.


Book Synopsis Middle East and North Africa Economic Monitor, October 2014 by : Shantayanan Devarajan

Download or read book Middle East and North Africa Economic Monitor, October 2014 written by Shantayanan Devarajan and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2014-11-10 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The economic outlook for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region in 2015 is slightly more favorable than in 2013-14, when the region as a whole grew at 3 percent a year. The World Bank group’s latest MENA Economic Monitor projects MENA’s economic growth to average 5.2 percent in 2015 driven by domestic consumption, easing political tensions crowding-in investments in Egypt and Tunisia, and full resumption of oil production in Libya. However the violent conflicts in Syria, Iraq, Gaza, Yemen and Libya with their spillovers to Lebanon and Jordan could make MENA’s economic prospects bleak. The report has a special focus on the corrosive nature of the large energy subsidies in MENA. The MENA region is currently experiencing growth below potential, high unemployment, urban air pollution and congestion, and severe water scarcity that is undermining agriculture. The report shows how energy subsidies have contributed to these development challenges. Reforming these subsidies, therefore, should be one of the highest priorities of policymakers.

Middle East and North Africa Economic Monitor, April 2015

Middle East and North Africa Economic Monitor, April 2015

Author: Shantayanan Devarajan

Publisher: World Bank Publications

Published: 2015-04-14

Total Pages: 56

ISBN-13: 146480608X

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The economic outlook for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region in 2015 is slightly more favorable than in 2013-14, when the region as a whole grew at 3 percent a year. The World Bank group’s latest MENA Economic Monitor projects MENA’s economic growth to average 5.2 percent in 2015 driven by domestic consumption, easing political tensions crowding-in investments in Egypt and Tunisia, and full resumption of oil production in Libya. However the violent conflicts in Syria, Iraq, Gaza, Yemen and Libya with their spillovers to Lebanon and Jordan could make MENA’s economic prospects bleak. The report has a special focus on the corrosive nature of the large energy subsidies in MENA. The MENA region is currently experiencing growth below potential, high unemployment, urban air pollution and congestion, and severe water scarcity that is undermining agriculture. The report shows how energy subsidies have contributed to these development challenges. Reforming these subsidies, therefore, should be one of the highest priorities of policymakers.


Book Synopsis Middle East and North Africa Economic Monitor, April 2015 by : Shantayanan Devarajan

Download or read book Middle East and North Africa Economic Monitor, April 2015 written by Shantayanan Devarajan and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2015-04-14 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The economic outlook for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region in 2015 is slightly more favorable than in 2013-14, when the region as a whole grew at 3 percent a year. The World Bank group’s latest MENA Economic Monitor projects MENA’s economic growth to average 5.2 percent in 2015 driven by domestic consumption, easing political tensions crowding-in investments in Egypt and Tunisia, and full resumption of oil production in Libya. However the violent conflicts in Syria, Iraq, Gaza, Yemen and Libya with their spillovers to Lebanon and Jordan could make MENA’s economic prospects bleak. The report has a special focus on the corrosive nature of the large energy subsidies in MENA. The MENA region is currently experiencing growth below potential, high unemployment, urban air pollution and congestion, and severe water scarcity that is undermining agriculture. The report shows how energy subsidies have contributed to these development challenges. Reforming these subsidies, therefore, should be one of the highest priorities of policymakers.

Middle East and North Africa Economic Developments and Prospects, October 2012

Middle East and North Africa Economic Developments and Prospects, October 2012

Author: WORLD BANK

Publisher: World Bank Publications

Published: 2012-10-27

Total Pages: 48

ISBN-13: 0821398075

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The post-revolutionary economies of MENA - Egypt, Tunisia, Libya and Yemen - have been recovering after a period of growth decelerations in 2011. In Egypt and Tunisia, the growth dips of 2011 were less dramatic than the declines observed during previous transitions. The recovery has been relatively quick but the transition process is far from complete and uncertainty about the political and reform process remains a binding constraint to private investment. Consequently, post-transition growth is below potential and is lower than growth prior to the Arab Spring, with negative consequences for employment and poverty. Events in the post-revolution economies have affected other countries in MENA. Macroeconomic fundamentals weakened in most developing MENA countries in 2011-12 as growth slowed and governments responded to social pressures with expansionary fiscal policies. The regional growth outlook for 2013 reflects weaker expected global economic activity, especially in the EU, and moderating oil prices. Regional economic growth is expected to decelerate to 3.5% in 2013 from 5.5% in 2012. Prolonged political and policy uncertainty and social unrest are serious downside risks to the outlook.


Book Synopsis Middle East and North Africa Economic Developments and Prospects, October 2012 by : WORLD BANK

Download or read book Middle East and North Africa Economic Developments and Prospects, October 2012 written by WORLD BANK and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2012-10-27 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The post-revolutionary economies of MENA - Egypt, Tunisia, Libya and Yemen - have been recovering after a period of growth decelerations in 2011. In Egypt and Tunisia, the growth dips of 2011 were less dramatic than the declines observed during previous transitions. The recovery has been relatively quick but the transition process is far from complete and uncertainty about the political and reform process remains a binding constraint to private investment. Consequently, post-transition growth is below potential and is lower than growth prior to the Arab Spring, with negative consequences for employment and poverty. Events in the post-revolution economies have affected other countries in MENA. Macroeconomic fundamentals weakened in most developing MENA countries in 2011-12 as growth slowed and governments responded to social pressures with expansionary fiscal policies. The regional growth outlook for 2013 reflects weaker expected global economic activity, especially in the EU, and moderating oil prices. Regional economic growth is expected to decelerate to 3.5% in 2013 from 5.5% in 2012. Prolonged political and policy uncertainty and social unrest are serious downside risks to the outlook.

Middle East and North Africa Economic Monitor, October 2018

Middle East and North Africa Economic Monitor, October 2018

Author: Rabah Arezki

Publisher:

Published: 2019

Total Pages: 55

ISBN-13:

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After a sharp fall in 2017, economic growth in MENA is projected to rebound to 3.1 percent in 2018, thanksto the positive global outlook, oil prices stabilizing at relatively higher levels, stabilization policies andreforms, and recovery and reconstruction as conflicts recede. The outlook for MENA remains positive, andthe growth rebound is expected to gain momentum over the next two years, exceeding 3 percent in 2020. While stabilization policies have helped economies adjust in recent years, .a second phase of reforms isneeded should be transformative if the region is to reach its potential and create jobs for hundred millionyoung people who will enter the labor market in coming decades. In this report, we explore the role thatpublic-private partnerships can play. not only in providing an alternative source of financing but in helpingchange the role of the state from the main provider of employment to an enabler of private sector activity. Studies have shown that the gap between MENA economies and fast-growing ones is the performance of theservices sector. The disruptive technology offers new opportunities for boosting private-sector-led growththrough enhancement of high-tech jobs in the services sector. The report argues that combining the region'sfast-growing pool of university graduates and a heavy penetration of social media and smartphone, couldserve as the foundation for a digital sector that could create much-needed private sector jobs for the youthover the next decade.


Book Synopsis Middle East and North Africa Economic Monitor, October 2018 by : Rabah Arezki

Download or read book Middle East and North Africa Economic Monitor, October 2018 written by Rabah Arezki and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 55 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: After a sharp fall in 2017, economic growth in MENA is projected to rebound to 3.1 percent in 2018, thanksto the positive global outlook, oil prices stabilizing at relatively higher levels, stabilization policies andreforms, and recovery and reconstruction as conflicts recede. The outlook for MENA remains positive, andthe growth rebound is expected to gain momentum over the next two years, exceeding 3 percent in 2020. While stabilization policies have helped economies adjust in recent years, .a second phase of reforms isneeded should be transformative if the region is to reach its potential and create jobs for hundred millionyoung people who will enter the labor market in coming decades. In this report, we explore the role thatpublic-private partnerships can play. not only in providing an alternative source of financing but in helpingchange the role of the state from the main provider of employment to an enabler of private sector activity. Studies have shown that the gap between MENA economies and fast-growing ones is the performance of theservices sector. The disruptive technology offers new opportunities for boosting private-sector-led growththrough enhancement of high-tech jobs in the services sector. The report argues that combining the region'sfast-growing pool of university graduates and a heavy penetration of social media and smartphone, couldserve as the foundation for a digital sector that could create much-needed private sector jobs for the youthover the next decade.