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Modeling Environment-Improving Technological Innovations under Uncertainty

Author: Alexander Golub

Publisher: Routledge

Published: 2008-12-08

Total Pages: 338

ISBN-13: 9780203886465

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The issues of technology and uncertainty are very much at the heart of the policy debate of how much to control greenhouse gas emissions. The costs of doing so are present and high while the benefits are very much in the future and, most importantly, they are highly uncertain. Whilst there is broad consensus on the key elements of climate change science and agreement that near-term actions are needed to prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system, there is little agreement on the costs and benefits of climate policy. The book looks at different ways of reconciling the needs for sustainability and equity with the costs of action now. Presenting a compendium of methodologies for evaluating the economic impact of technological innovation upon climate-change policy, this book describes mathematical models and their predictions. The goal is to provide a practitioner’s guide for doing the science of economics and climate change. Because the assumptions motivating different problems in the economics of climate change have different complexities, a number of models are presented with varying levels of difficulty: reduced-form and structural, partial- and general-equilibrium, closed-form and computational. A unifying theme of these models is the incorporation of a number of price and quantity instruments and an analysis of their respective efficacies. This book presents models that contain structural uncertainty, i.e., uncertainty that economic agents respond to via their risk attitudes. The novelty of this book is to relate the effects of risk and risk attitudes to environment-improving technological innovation.

Book Synopsis Modeling Environment-Improving Technological Innovations under Uncertainty by : Alexander Golub

Download or read book Modeling Environment-Improving Technological Innovations under Uncertainty written by Alexander Golub and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2008-12-08 with total page 338 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The issues of technology and uncertainty are very much at the heart of the policy debate of how much to control greenhouse gas emissions. The costs of doing so are present and high while the benefits are very much in the future and, most importantly, they are highly uncertain. Whilst there is broad consensus on the key elements of climate change science and agreement that near-term actions are needed to prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system, there is little agreement on the costs and benefits of climate policy. The book looks at different ways of reconciling the needs for sustainability and equity with the costs of action now. Presenting a compendium of methodologies for evaluating the economic impact of technological innovation upon climate-change policy, this book describes mathematical models and their predictions. The goal is to provide a practitioner’s guide for doing the science of economics and climate change. Because the assumptions motivating different problems in the economics of climate change have different complexities, a number of models are presented with varying levels of difficulty: reduced-form and structural, partial- and general-equilibrium, closed-form and computational. A unifying theme of these models is the incorporation of a number of price and quantity instruments and an analysis of their respective efficacies. This book presents models that contain structural uncertainty, i.e., uncertainty that economic agents respond to via their risk attitudes. The novelty of this book is to relate the effects of risk and risk attitudes to environment-improving technological innovation.

Modeling Environment-Improving Technological Innovations Under Uncertainty

Author: Alexander Golub

Publisher: Routledge

Published: 2008-12-08

Total Pages: 346

ISBN-13: 1134041209

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This book presents a compendium of methodologies for evaluating the economic impact of technological innovation upon climate-change policy. There is a broad consensus on the key elements of climate-change science and agreement that near-term actions are needed to prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. However, there is little agreement on the costs and benefits of climate policy. Any policy implementation will result in an irreversible but environment-improving investment in alternative technologies; this change will generate immediately-realized costs but significantly-delayed benefits. Hence, a critical element in policy selection is the inherent uncertainty in the climate and economy that can be expected over time.

Book Synopsis Modeling Environment-Improving Technological Innovations Under Uncertainty by : Alexander Golub

Download or read book Modeling Environment-Improving Technological Innovations Under Uncertainty written by Alexander Golub and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2008-12-08 with total page 346 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents a compendium of methodologies for evaluating the economic impact of technological innovation upon climate-change policy. There is a broad consensus on the key elements of climate-change science and agreement that near-term actions are needed to prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. However, there is little agreement on the costs and benefits of climate policy. Any policy implementation will result in an irreversible but environment-improving investment in alternative technologies; this change will generate immediately-realized costs but significantly-delayed benefits. Hence, a critical element in policy selection is the inherent uncertainty in the climate and economy that can be expected over time.

Environmental Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty

Author: Institute of Medicine

Publisher: National Academies Press

Published: 2013-05-20

Total Pages: 280

ISBN-13: 0309290236

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The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is one of several federal agencies responsible for protecting Americans against significant risks to human health and the environment. As part of that mission, EPA estimates the nature, magnitude, and likelihood of risks to human health and the environment; identifies the potential regulatory actions that will mitigate those risks and protect public health1 and the environment; and uses that information to decide on appropriate regulatory action. Uncertainties, both qualitative and quantitative, in the data and analyses on which these decisions are based enter into the process at each step. As a result, the informed identification and use of the uncertainties inherent in the process is an essential feature of environmental decision making. EPA requested that the Institute of Medicine (IOM) convene a committee to provide guidance to its decision makers and their partners in states and localities on approaches to managing risk in different contexts when uncertainty is present. It also sought guidance on how information on uncertainty should be presented to help risk managers make sound decisions and to increase transparency in its communications with the public about those decisions. Given that its charge is not limited to human health risk assessment and includes broad questions about managing risks and decision making, in this report the committee examines the analysis of uncertainty in those other areas in addition to human health risks. Environmental Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty explains the statement of task and summarizes the findings of the committee.

Book Synopsis Environmental Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty by : Institute of Medicine

Download or read book Environmental Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty written by Institute of Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2013-05-20 with total page 280 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is one of several federal agencies responsible for protecting Americans against significant risks to human health and the environment. As part of that mission, EPA estimates the nature, magnitude, and likelihood of risks to human health and the environment; identifies the potential regulatory actions that will mitigate those risks and protect public health1 and the environment; and uses that information to decide on appropriate regulatory action. Uncertainties, both qualitative and quantitative, in the data and analyses on which these decisions are based enter into the process at each step. As a result, the informed identification and use of the uncertainties inherent in the process is an essential feature of environmental decision making. EPA requested that the Institute of Medicine (IOM) convene a committee to provide guidance to its decision makers and their partners in states and localities on approaches to managing risk in different contexts when uncertainty is present. It also sought guidance on how information on uncertainty should be presented to help risk managers make sound decisions and to increase transparency in its communications with the public about those decisions. Given that its charge is not limited to human health risk assessment and includes broad questions about managing risks and decision making, in this report the committee examines the analysis of uncertainty in those other areas in addition to human health risks. Environmental Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty explains the statement of task and summarizes the findings of the committee.

Technological Change and the Environment

Author: Arnulf Grübler

Publisher: Routledge

Published: 2010-09-30

Total Pages: 414

ISBN-13: 1136522913

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Much is written in the popular literature about the current pace of technological change. But do we have enough scientific knowledge about the sources and management of innovation to properly inform policymaking in technology dependent domains such as energy and the environment? While it is agreed that technological change does not 'fall from heaven like autumn leaves,' the theory, data, and models are deficient. The specific mechanisms that govern the rate and direction of inventive activity, the drivers and scope for incremental improvements that occur during technology diffusion, and the spillover effects that cross-fertilize technological innovations remain poorly understood. In a work that will interest serious readers of history, policy, and economics, the editors and their distinguished contributors offer a unique, single volume overview of the theoretical and empirical work on technological change. Beginning with a survey of existing research, they provide analysis and case studies in contexts such as medicine, agriculture, and power generation, paying particular attention to what technological change means for efficiency, productivity, and reduced environmental impacts. The book includes a historical analysis of technological change, an examination of the overall direction of technological change, and general theories about the sources of change. The contributors empirically test hypotheses of induced innovation and theories of institutional innovation. They propose ways to model induced technological change and evaluate its impact, and they consider issues such as uncertainty in technology returns, technology crossover effects, and clustering. A copublication o Resources for the Future (RFF) and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA).

Book Synopsis Technological Change and the Environment by : Arnulf Grübler

Download or read book Technological Change and the Environment written by Arnulf Grübler and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2010-09-30 with total page 414 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Much is written in the popular literature about the current pace of technological change. But do we have enough scientific knowledge about the sources and management of innovation to properly inform policymaking in technology dependent domains such as energy and the environment? While it is agreed that technological change does not 'fall from heaven like autumn leaves,' the theory, data, and models are deficient. The specific mechanisms that govern the rate and direction of inventive activity, the drivers and scope for incremental improvements that occur during technology diffusion, and the spillover effects that cross-fertilize technological innovations remain poorly understood. In a work that will interest serious readers of history, policy, and economics, the editors and their distinguished contributors offer a unique, single volume overview of the theoretical and empirical work on technological change. Beginning with a survey of existing research, they provide analysis and case studies in contexts such as medicine, agriculture, and power generation, paying particular attention to what technological change means for efficiency, productivity, and reduced environmental impacts. The book includes a historical analysis of technological change, an examination of the overall direction of technological change, and general theories about the sources of change. The contributors empirically test hypotheses of induced innovation and theories of institutional innovation. They propose ways to model induced technological change and evaluate its impact, and they consider issues such as uncertainty in technology returns, technology crossover effects, and clustering. A copublication o Resources for the Future (RFF) and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA).

Limiting the Magnitude of Future Climate Change

Author: National Research Council

Publisher: National Academies Press

Published: 2010-12-06

Total Pages: 277

ISBN-13: 0309155940

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Climate change, driven by the increasing concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, poses serious, wide-ranging threats to human societies and natural ecosystems around the world. The largest overall source of greenhouse gas emissions is the burning of fossil fuels. The global atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide, the dominant greenhouse gas of concern, is increasing by roughly two parts per million per year, and the United States is currently the second-largest contributor to global emissions behind China. Limiting the Magnitude of Future Climate Change, part of the congressionally requested America's Climate Choices suite of studies, focuses on the role of the United States in the global effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The book concludes that in order to ensure that all levels of government, the private sector, and millions of households and individuals are contributing to shared national goals, the United States should establish a "budget" that sets a limit on total domestic greenhouse emissions from 2010-2050. Meeting such a budget would require a major departure from business as usual in the way the nation produces and uses energy-and that the nation act now to aggressively deploy all available energy efficiencies and less carbon-intensive technologies and to develop new ones. With no financial incentives or regulatory pressure, the nation will continue to rely upon and "lock in" carbon-intensive technologies and systems unless a carbon pricing system is established-either cap-and-trade, a system of taxing emissions, or a combination of the two. Complementary policies are also needed to accelerate progress in key areas: developing more efficient, less carbon-intense energy sources in electricity and transportation; advancing full-scale development of new-generation nuclear power, carbon capture, and storage systems; and amending emissions-intensive energy infrastructure. Research and development of new technologies that could help reduce emissions more cost effectively than current options is also strongly recommended.

Book Synopsis Limiting the Magnitude of Future Climate Change by : National Research Council

Download or read book Limiting the Magnitude of Future Climate Change written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2010-12-06 with total page 277 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Climate change, driven by the increasing concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, poses serious, wide-ranging threats to human societies and natural ecosystems around the world. The largest overall source of greenhouse gas emissions is the burning of fossil fuels. The global atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide, the dominant greenhouse gas of concern, is increasing by roughly two parts per million per year, and the United States is currently the second-largest contributor to global emissions behind China. Limiting the Magnitude of Future Climate Change, part of the congressionally requested America's Climate Choices suite of studies, focuses on the role of the United States in the global effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The book concludes that in order to ensure that all levels of government, the private sector, and millions of households and individuals are contributing to shared national goals, the United States should establish a "budget" that sets a limit on total domestic greenhouse emissions from 2010-2050. Meeting such a budget would require a major departure from business as usual in the way the nation produces and uses energy-and that the nation act now to aggressively deploy all available energy efficiencies and less carbon-intensive technologies and to develop new ones. With no financial incentives or regulatory pressure, the nation will continue to rely upon and "lock in" carbon-intensive technologies and systems unless a carbon pricing system is established-either cap-and-trade, a system of taxing emissions, or a combination of the two. Complementary policies are also needed to accelerate progress in key areas: developing more efficient, less carbon-intense energy sources in electricity and transportation; advancing full-scale development of new-generation nuclear power, carbon capture, and storage systems; and amending emissions-intensive energy infrastructure. Research and development of new technologies that could help reduce emissions more cost effectively than current options is also strongly recommended.

Climate Change Mitigation, Technological Innovation and Adaptation

Author: Valentine Bosetti

Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing

Published: 2014-06-27

Total Pages: 215

ISBN-13: 1783477172

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This book presents provides a rigorous yet accessible treatment of the main topics in climate change policy using a large body of research generated using WITCH (World Induced Technical Change Hybrid), an innovative and path-breaking integrated assessm

Book Synopsis Climate Change Mitigation, Technological Innovation and Adaptation by : Valentine Bosetti

Download or read book Climate Change Mitigation, Technological Innovation and Adaptation written by Valentine Bosetti and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2014-06-27 with total page 215 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents provides a rigorous yet accessible treatment of the main topics in climate change policy using a large body of research generated using WITCH (World Induced Technical Change Hybrid), an innovative and path-breaking integrated assessm

Robust Simulation for Mega-Risks

Author: Craig E. Taylor

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2015-11-11

Total Pages: 179

ISBN-13: 3319194135

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This book introduces a new way of analyzing, measuring and thinking about mega-risks, a “paradigm shift” that moves from single-solutions to multiple competitive solutions and strategies. “Robust simulation” is a statistical approach that demonstrates future risk through simulation of a suite of possible answers. To arrive at this point, the book systematically walks through the historical statistical methods for evaluating risks. The first chapters deal with three theories of probability and statistics that have been dominant in the 20th century, along with key mathematical issues and dilemmas. The book then introduces “robust simulation” which solves the problem of measuring the stability of simulated losses, incorporates outliers, and simulates future risk through a suite of possible answers and stochastic modeling of unknown variables. This book discusses various analytical methods for utilizing divergent solutions in making pragmatic financial and risk-mitigation decisions. The book emphasizes the importance of flexibility and attempts to demonstrate that alternative credible approaches are helpful and required in understanding a great many phenomena.

Book Synopsis Robust Simulation for Mega-Risks by : Craig E. Taylor

Download or read book Robust Simulation for Mega-Risks written by Craig E. Taylor and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-11-11 with total page 179 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book introduces a new way of analyzing, measuring and thinking about mega-risks, a “paradigm shift” that moves from single-solutions to multiple competitive solutions and strategies. “Robust simulation” is a statistical approach that demonstrates future risk through simulation of a suite of possible answers. To arrive at this point, the book systematically walks through the historical statistical methods for evaluating risks. The first chapters deal with three theories of probability and statistics that have been dominant in the 20th century, along with key mathematical issues and dilemmas. The book then introduces “robust simulation” which solves the problem of measuring the stability of simulated losses, incorporates outliers, and simulates future risk through a suite of possible answers and stochastic modeling of unknown variables. This book discusses various analytical methods for utilizing divergent solutions in making pragmatic financial and risk-mitigation decisions. The book emphasizes the importance of flexibility and attempts to demonstrate that alternative credible approaches are helpful and required in understanding a great many phenomena.

Understanding Risks and Uncertainties in Energy and Climate Policy

Author: Haris Doukas

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2018-12-10

Total Pages: 271

ISBN-13: 3030031527

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This open access book analyzes and seeks to consolidate the use of robust quantitative tools and qualitative methods for the design and assessment of energy and climate policies. In particular, it examines energy and climate policy performance and associated risks, as well as public acceptance and portfolio analysis in climate policy, and presents methods for evaluating the costs and benefits of flexible policy implementation as well as new framings for business and market actors. In turn, it discusses the development of alternative policy pathways and the identification of optimal switching points, drawing on concrete examples to do so. Lastly, it discusses climate change mitigation policies’ implications for the agricultural, food, building, transportation, service and manufacturing sectors.

Book Synopsis Understanding Risks and Uncertainties in Energy and Climate Policy by : Haris Doukas

Download or read book Understanding Risks and Uncertainties in Energy and Climate Policy written by Haris Doukas and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-12-10 with total page 271 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book analyzes and seeks to consolidate the use of robust quantitative tools and qualitative methods for the design and assessment of energy and climate policies. In particular, it examines energy and climate policy performance and associated risks, as well as public acceptance and portfolio analysis in climate policy, and presents methods for evaluating the costs and benefits of flexible policy implementation as well as new framings for business and market actors. In turn, it discusses the development of alternative policy pathways and the identification of optimal switching points, drawing on concrete examples to do so. Lastly, it discusses climate change mitigation policies’ implications for the agricultural, food, building, transportation, service and manufacturing sectors.

Environmental Taxes and Fiscal Reform

Author: L. Castellucci

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2012-11-30

Total Pages: 314

ISBN-13: 0230392407

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A review of the literature on environmental taxes, focusing on European experiences, and analysing how such taxes can contribute to green causes as well as reducing the tax burden from "ordinary" taxation. The authors examine the potential 'double dividend' from tax reform for helping the environment, reducing unemployment and encouraging growth.

Book Synopsis Environmental Taxes and Fiscal Reform by : L. Castellucci

Download or read book Environmental Taxes and Fiscal Reform written by L. Castellucci and published by Springer. This book was released on 2012-11-30 with total page 314 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A review of the literature on environmental taxes, focusing on European experiences, and analysing how such taxes can contribute to green causes as well as reducing the tax burden from "ordinary" taxation. The authors examine the potential 'double dividend' from tax reform for helping the environment, reducing unemployment and encouraging growth.

Environmental Efficiency, Innovation and Economic Performances

Author: Anna Montini

Publisher: Routledge

Published: 2010-07-02

Total Pages: 270

ISBN-13: 1136962190

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This volume brings together microeconomics studies on firms’ eco and economic performance both in the industrial and service sector; by considering a sector based perspective rooted mainly in the exploitation of NAMEA data; at regional level, and a macroeconomic analysis of the environment, income and welfare.

Book Synopsis Environmental Efficiency, Innovation and Economic Performances by : Anna Montini

Download or read book Environmental Efficiency, Innovation and Economic Performances written by Anna Montini and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2010-07-02 with total page 270 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume brings together microeconomics studies on firms’ eco and economic performance both in the industrial and service sector; by considering a sector based perspective rooted mainly in the exploitation of NAMEA data; at regional level, and a macroeconomic analysis of the environment, income and welfare.