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Download or read book MODERN RISK QUANTIFICATION IN COMPLEX PROJECTS written by RAYDUGIN. and published by . This book was released on with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author: Yuri G. Raydugin
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Published: 2020-07-16
Total Pages: 275
ISBN-13: 019258264X
DOWNLOAD EBOOKProject practitioners and decision makers complain that both parametric and Monte Carlo methods fail to produce accurate project duration and cost contingencies in majority of cases. Apparently, the referred methods have unacceptably high systematic errors as they miss out critically important components of project risk exposure. In the case of complex projects overlooked are the components associated with structural and delivery complexity. Modern Risk Quantification in Complex Projects: Non-linear Monte Carlo and System Dynamics Methodologies zeroes in on most crucial but systematically overlooked characteristics of complex projects. Any mismatches between two fundamental interacting subsystems - a project structure subsystem and a project delivery subsystem - result in non-linear interactions of project risks. Three kinds of the interactions are distinguished - internal risk amplifications stemming from long-term ('chronic') project system issues, knock-on interactions, and risk compounding. Affinities of interacting risks compose dynamic risk patterns supported by a project system. A methodology to factor the patterns into Monte Carlo modelling referred to as non-linear Monte Carlo schedule and cost risk analysis (N-SCRA) is developed and demonstrated. It is capable to forecast project outcomes with high accuracy even in the case of most complex and difficult projects including notorious projects-outliers: it has a much lower systematic error. The power of project system dynamics is uncovered. It can be adopted as an accurate risk quantification methodology in complex projects. Results produced by the system dynamics and the non-linear Monte Carlo methodologies are well-aligned. All built Monte Carlo and system dynamics models are available on the book's companion website.
Download or read book Modern Risk Quantification in Complex Projects written by Yuri G. Raydugin and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2020-07-16 with total page 275 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Project practitioners and decision makers complain that both parametric and Monte Carlo methods fail to produce accurate project duration and cost contingencies in majority of cases. Apparently, the referred methods have unacceptably high systematic errors as they miss out critically important components of project risk exposure. In the case of complex projects overlooked are the components associated with structural and delivery complexity. Modern Risk Quantification in Complex Projects: Non-linear Monte Carlo and System Dynamics Methodologies zeroes in on most crucial but systematically overlooked characteristics of complex projects. Any mismatches between two fundamental interacting subsystems - a project structure subsystem and a project delivery subsystem - result in non-linear interactions of project risks. Three kinds of the interactions are distinguished - internal risk amplifications stemming from long-term ('chronic') project system issues, knock-on interactions, and risk compounding. Affinities of interacting risks compose dynamic risk patterns supported by a project system. A methodology to factor the patterns into Monte Carlo modelling referred to as non-linear Monte Carlo schedule and cost risk analysis (N-SCRA) is developed and demonstrated. It is capable to forecast project outcomes with high accuracy even in the case of most complex and difficult projects including notorious projects-outliers: it has a much lower systematic error. The power of project system dynamics is uncovered. It can be adopted as an accurate risk quantification methodology in complex projects. Results produced by the system dynamics and the non-linear Monte Carlo methodologies are well-aligned. All built Monte Carlo and system dynamics models are available on the book's companion website.
Author: Yuri G. Raydugin
Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA
Published: 2020-07-23
Total Pages: 375
ISBN-13: 0198844336
DOWNLOAD EBOOKProject practitioners and decision makers complain that both parametric and Monte Carlo methods fail to produce accurate project duration and cost contingencies in the majority of cases. Apparently, these methods have unacceptably high systematic errors as they miss out critically important components of project risk exposure. In the case of complex projects, the components associated with structural and delivery complexity are often overlooked. Modern Risk Quantification in Complex Projects: Non-linear Monte Carlo and System Dynamics Methodologies zeroes in on the most crucial but systematically overlooked characteristics of complex projects. Any mismatches between two fundamental interacting subsystems - a project structure subsystem and a project delivery subsystem - result in non-linear interactions of project risks. Three kinds of the interactions are distinguished - internal risk amplifications stemming from long-term ('chronic') project system issues, knock-on interactions, and risk compounding. Affinities of interacting risks compose dynamic risk patterns supported by a project system. A new methodology to factor the patterns into Monte Carlo modelling referred to as "non-linear Monte Carlo schedule and cost risk analysis" (N-SCRA) is developed and demonstrated. It is capable of forecasting project outcomes with high accuracy even in the case of most complex and difficult projects, including notorious projects-outliers, and it has a much lower rate of systematic error. In this book, the power of project system dynamics is uncovered. It can be adopted as an accurate risk quantification methodology in complex projects, and the results produced by the system dynamics and the non-linear Monte Carlo methodologies are well-aligned. All built Monte Carlo and system dynamics models are available on the book's companion website.
Download or read book Modern Risk Quantification in Complex Projects written by Yuri G. Raydugin and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 2020-07-23 with total page 375 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Project practitioners and decision makers complain that both parametric and Monte Carlo methods fail to produce accurate project duration and cost contingencies in the majority of cases. Apparently, these methods have unacceptably high systematic errors as they miss out critically important components of project risk exposure. In the case of complex projects, the components associated with structural and delivery complexity are often overlooked. Modern Risk Quantification in Complex Projects: Non-linear Monte Carlo and System Dynamics Methodologies zeroes in on the most crucial but systematically overlooked characteristics of complex projects. Any mismatches between two fundamental interacting subsystems - a project structure subsystem and a project delivery subsystem - result in non-linear interactions of project risks. Three kinds of the interactions are distinguished - internal risk amplifications stemming from long-term ('chronic') project system issues, knock-on interactions, and risk compounding. Affinities of interacting risks compose dynamic risk patterns supported by a project system. A new methodology to factor the patterns into Monte Carlo modelling referred to as "non-linear Monte Carlo schedule and cost risk analysis" (N-SCRA) is developed and demonstrated. It is capable of forecasting project outcomes with high accuracy even in the case of most complex and difficult projects, including notorious projects-outliers, and it has a much lower rate of systematic error. In this book, the power of project system dynamics is uncovered. It can be adopted as an accurate risk quantification methodology in complex projects, and the results produced by the system dynamics and the non-linear Monte Carlo methodologies are well-aligned. All built Monte Carlo and system dynamics models are available on the book's companion website.
Author: Yuri G. Raydugin
Publisher: Springer
Published: 2024-05-31
Total Pages: 0
ISBN-13: 9783031569876
DOWNLOAD EBOOKThis book integrates for readers three areas of knowledge, pertaining to risk-based project decision making: project risk management (PRM), complexity theory, and decision-making under deep uncertainty (DMDU). Readers will appreciate that in practice, too often relevant complexity and uncertainty factors are either ignored or overlooked resulting in epic project failures. The author discusses a variety of methodologies and a decision-tree-type framework to determine why, when and how particular methodologies should be applied to ensure project success. These include nonlinear Monte Carlo techniques, a dynamic adaptive methodology to adapt to external environment changes, game theory for devising robust decision-making criteria, systems dynamics and cost escalation modelling, as well as risk-based & economic-based alternatives selection methodologies. This book will be an eye-opener for many PRM practitioners, helping to increase their chances of project success by properly handling inescapable project-complexity and deep-uncertainty implications in specific contexts.
Download or read book Risk-Based Project Decisions in Situations of High Complexity and Deep Uncertainty written by Yuri G. Raydugin and published by Springer. This book was released on 2024-05-31 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book integrates for readers three areas of knowledge, pertaining to risk-based project decision making: project risk management (PRM), complexity theory, and decision-making under deep uncertainty (DMDU). Readers will appreciate that in practice, too often relevant complexity and uncertainty factors are either ignored or overlooked resulting in epic project failures. The author discusses a variety of methodologies and a decision-tree-type framework to determine why, when and how particular methodologies should be applied to ensure project success. These include nonlinear Monte Carlo techniques, a dynamic adaptive methodology to adapt to external environment changes, game theory for devising robust decision-making criteria, systems dynamics and cost escalation modelling, as well as risk-based & economic-based alternatives selection methodologies. This book will be an eye-opener for many PRM practitioners, helping to increase their chances of project success by properly handling inescapable project-complexity and deep-uncertainty implications in specific contexts.
Author: Yuri G. Raydugin
Publisher: Springer Nature
Published:
Total Pages: 399
ISBN-13: 3031569881
DOWNLOAD EBOOKDownload or read book Risk-Based Project Decisions in Situations of High Complexity and Deep Uncertainty written by Yuri G. Raydugin and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on with total page 399 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author: Vajjhala, Narasimha Rao
Publisher: IGI Global
Published: 2022-06-24
Total Pages: 356
ISBN-13: 1668452812
DOWNLOAD EBOOKRisks can be identified, evaluated, and mitigated, but the underlying uncertainty remains elusive. Risk is present across all industries and sectors. As a result, organizations and governments worldwide are currently experiencing higher levels of risk and have had to make risky decisions during times of crisis and instability, including the COVID-19 pandemic, economic and climate perils, and global tensions surrounding terrorism. It is essential that new studies are undertaken to understand strategies taken during these times to better equip business leaders to navigate risk management in the future. Global Risk and Contingency Management Research in Times of Crisis examines the impact of crises including the COVID-19 pandemic, which has tested organizational risk and contingency management plans. It provides significant insights that should benefit business leaders on risk and contingency management in times of crisis. It emphasizes strategies that leaders can undertake to identify potential future risks and examines decisions made in past crises that can act as examples of what to do and what not to do during future crisis events. Covering topics such as auditing theories, risk assessment, and educational inequality, this premier reference source is a crucial resource for business leaders, executives, managers, decision makers, policymakers, students, government officials, entrepreneurs, librarians, researchers, and academicians.
Download or read book Global Risk and Contingency Management Research in Times of Crisis written by Vajjhala, Narasimha Rao and published by IGI Global. This book was released on 2022-06-24 with total page 356 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Risks can be identified, evaluated, and mitigated, but the underlying uncertainty remains elusive. Risk is present across all industries and sectors. As a result, organizations and governments worldwide are currently experiencing higher levels of risk and have had to make risky decisions during times of crisis and instability, including the COVID-19 pandemic, economic and climate perils, and global tensions surrounding terrorism. It is essential that new studies are undertaken to understand strategies taken during these times to better equip business leaders to navigate risk management in the future. Global Risk and Contingency Management Research in Times of Crisis examines the impact of crises including the COVID-19 pandemic, which has tested organizational risk and contingency management plans. It provides significant insights that should benefit business leaders on risk and contingency management in times of crisis. It emphasizes strategies that leaders can undertake to identify potential future risks and examines decisions made in past crises that can act as examples of what to do and what not to do during future crisis events. Covering topics such as auditing theories, risk assessment, and educational inequality, this premier reference source is a crucial resource for business leaders, executives, managers, decision makers, policymakers, students, government officials, entrepreneurs, librarians, researchers, and academicians.
Author: Stephen Ogunlana
Publisher: Routledge
Published: 2019-09-09
Total Pages: 709
ISBN-13: 1134019289
DOWNLOAD EBOOKToday’s businesses are driven by customer ‘pull’ and technological ‘push’. To remain competitive in this dynamic business world, engineering and construction organizations are constantly innovating with new technology tools and techniques to improve process performance in their projects. Their management challenge is to save time, reduce cost and increase quality and operational efficiency. Risk management has recently evolved as an effective method of managing both projects and operations. Risk is inherent in any project, as managers need to plan projects with minimal knowledge and information, but its management helps managers to become proactive rather than reactive. Hence, it not only increases the chance of project achievement, but also helps ensure better performance throughout its operations phase. Various qualitative and quantitative tools are researched extensively by academics and routinely deployed by practitioners for managing risk. These have tremendous potential for wider applications. Yet the current literature on both the theory and practice of risk management is widely scattered. Most of the books emphasize risk management theory but lack practical demonstrations and give little guidance on the application of those theories. This book showcases a number of effective applications of risk management tools and techniques across product and service life in a way useful for practitioners, graduate students and researchers. It also provides an in-depth understanding of the principles of risk management in engineering and construction.
Download or read book Risk Management in Engineering and Construction written by Stephen Ogunlana and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2019-09-09 with total page 709 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Today’s businesses are driven by customer ‘pull’ and technological ‘push’. To remain competitive in this dynamic business world, engineering and construction organizations are constantly innovating with new technology tools and techniques to improve process performance in their projects. Their management challenge is to save time, reduce cost and increase quality and operational efficiency. Risk management has recently evolved as an effective method of managing both projects and operations. Risk is inherent in any project, as managers need to plan projects with minimal knowledge and information, but its management helps managers to become proactive rather than reactive. Hence, it not only increases the chance of project achievement, but also helps ensure better performance throughout its operations phase. Various qualitative and quantitative tools are researched extensively by academics and routinely deployed by practitioners for managing risk. These have tremendous potential for wider applications. Yet the current literature on both the theory and practice of risk management is widely scattered. Most of the books emphasize risk management theory but lack practical demonstrations and give little guidance on the application of those theories. This book showcases a number of effective applications of risk management tools and techniques across product and service life in a way useful for practitioners, graduate students and researchers. It also provides an in-depth understanding of the principles of risk management in engineering and construction.
Author: Franco Caron
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Published: 2013-05-24
Total Pages: 89
ISBN-13: 8847052440
DOWNLOAD EBOOKThe brief will describe how to develop a risk analysis applied to a project , through a sequence of steps: risk management planning, risk identification, risk classification, risk assessment, risk quantification, risk response planning, risk monitoring and control, process close out and lessons learning. The project risk analysis and management process will be applied to large engineering projects, in particular related to the oil and gas industry. The brief will address the overall range of possible events affecting the project moving from certainty (project issues) through uncertainty (project risks) to unpredictability (unforeseeable events), considering both negative and positive events. Some quantitative techniques (simulation, event tree, Bayesian inference, etc.) will be used to develop risk quantification. The brief addresses a typical subject in the area of project management, with reference to large engineering projects concerning the realization of large plants and infrastructures. These projects are characterized by a high level of change, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity. The brief represents an extension of the material developed for the course Project Risk Analysis and Management of the Master in Strategic Project Management (Erasmus Mundus) developed jointly by Politecnico di Milano, Heriot Watt University (Edimburgh) and Umea (Sweden). The brief may be used both in courses addressing project management subjects and by practitioners as a guide for developing an effective project risk management plan.
Download or read book Managing the Continuum: Certainty, Uncertainty, Unpredictability in Large Engineering Projects written by Franco Caron and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-05-24 with total page 89 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The brief will describe how to develop a risk analysis applied to a project , through a sequence of steps: risk management planning, risk identification, risk classification, risk assessment, risk quantification, risk response planning, risk monitoring and control, process close out and lessons learning. The project risk analysis and management process will be applied to large engineering projects, in particular related to the oil and gas industry. The brief will address the overall range of possible events affecting the project moving from certainty (project issues) through uncertainty (project risks) to unpredictability (unforeseeable events), considering both negative and positive events. Some quantitative techniques (simulation, event tree, Bayesian inference, etc.) will be used to develop risk quantification. The brief addresses a typical subject in the area of project management, with reference to large engineering projects concerning the realization of large plants and infrastructures. These projects are characterized by a high level of change, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity. The brief represents an extension of the material developed for the course Project Risk Analysis and Management of the Master in Strategic Project Management (Erasmus Mundus) developed jointly by Politecnico di Milano, Heriot Watt University (Edimburgh) and Umea (Sweden). The brief may be used both in courses addressing project management subjects and by practitioners as a guide for developing an effective project risk management plan.
Author: Ivan Damnjanovic
Publisher: Springer
Published: 2019-05-23
Total Pages: 379
ISBN-13: 3030142515
DOWNLOAD EBOOKThis book provides a step-by-step guidance on how to implement analytical methods in project risk management. The text focuses on engineering design and construction projects and as such is suitable for graduate students in engineering, construction, or project management, as well as practitioners aiming to develop, improve, and/or simplify corporate project management processes. The book places emphasis on building data-driven models for additive-incremental risks, where data can be collected on project sites, assembled from queries of corporate databases, and/or generated using procedures for eliciting experts’ judgments. While the presented models are mathematically inspired, they are nothing beyond what an engineering graduate is expected to know: some algebra, a little calculus, a little statistics, and, especially, undergraduate-level understanding of the probability theory. The book is organized in three parts and fourteen chapters. In Part I the authors provide the general introduction to risk and uncertainty analysis applied to engineering construction projects. The basic formulations and the methods for risk assessment used during project planning phase are discussed in Part II, while in Part III the authors present the methods for monitoring and (re)assessment of risks during project execution.
Download or read book Data Analytics for Engineering and Construction Project Risk Management written by Ivan Damnjanovic and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-05-23 with total page 379 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a step-by-step guidance on how to implement analytical methods in project risk management. The text focuses on engineering design and construction projects and as such is suitable for graduate students in engineering, construction, or project management, as well as practitioners aiming to develop, improve, and/or simplify corporate project management processes. The book places emphasis on building data-driven models for additive-incremental risks, where data can be collected on project sites, assembled from queries of corporate databases, and/or generated using procedures for eliciting experts’ judgments. While the presented models are mathematically inspired, they are nothing beyond what an engineering graduate is expected to know: some algebra, a little calculus, a little statistics, and, especially, undergraduate-level understanding of the probability theory. The book is organized in three parts and fourteen chapters. In Part I the authors provide the general introduction to risk and uncertainty analysis applied to engineering construction projects. The basic formulations and the methods for risk assessment used during project planning phase are discussed in Part II, while in Part III the authors present the methods for monitoring and (re)assessment of risks during project execution.
Author: Ayodeji E. Oke
Publisher: Springer Nature
Published: 2023-07-26
Total Pages: 184
ISBN-13: 3031355571
DOWNLOAD EBOOKThis volume describes risk management practices in the construction industry in selected countries, with an emphasis on developing countries and how these countries can learn from the practices in more developed ones. Risk management in the construction industry can be difficult to understand due to the various complex procedures that are involved and to the unique concerns and contexts associated with each project. The industry has been a key contributor to the economic and social development of many countries of the world and is increasingly incorporating sustainability into its practices. However it is plagued by various risks that can affect the quality, cost, time and overall sustainability of projects. Therefore, there is need to effectively manage risk in order to ensure timely completion of construction projects in good quality and within budget, which in turn results in more efficient and often more sustainable practices. The book is divided into four parts. The first section features a primer on risk management practices as they pertain to the construction industry. The second part dives in to describe risk management in selected developing countries, including Malaysia, Qatar, Saudi-Arabia, South Africa, Sri-Lanka and Tanzania, as well as the city of Hong Kong. The third section describes the construction risk management practices of a selection of more developed countries with known risk management institutes and established practices of risk management. These countries include Australia, Canada, Sweden and United States of America. The fourth part offers a general overview of the definition, concepts and process of risk management based on reviewed literature. It also discusses the benefits of effective risk management to clients and to project teams, especially from the perspective of ensuring sustainability. This last section also summarizes the risk management practices in both developing and developed countries for the purpose of improving the practices in the former by learning from the latter.
Download or read book Risk Management Practices in Construction written by Ayodeji E. Oke and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2023-07-26 with total page 184 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume describes risk management practices in the construction industry in selected countries, with an emphasis on developing countries and how these countries can learn from the practices in more developed ones. Risk management in the construction industry can be difficult to understand due to the various complex procedures that are involved and to the unique concerns and contexts associated with each project. The industry has been a key contributor to the economic and social development of many countries of the world and is increasingly incorporating sustainability into its practices. However it is plagued by various risks that can affect the quality, cost, time and overall sustainability of projects. Therefore, there is need to effectively manage risk in order to ensure timely completion of construction projects in good quality and within budget, which in turn results in more efficient and often more sustainable practices. The book is divided into four parts. The first section features a primer on risk management practices as they pertain to the construction industry. The second part dives in to describe risk management in selected developing countries, including Malaysia, Qatar, Saudi-Arabia, South Africa, Sri-Lanka and Tanzania, as well as the city of Hong Kong. The third section describes the construction risk management practices of a selection of more developed countries with known risk management institutes and established practices of risk management. These countries include Australia, Canada, Sweden and United States of America. The fourth part offers a general overview of the definition, concepts and process of risk management based on reviewed literature. It also discusses the benefits of effective risk management to clients and to project teams, especially from the perspective of ensuring sustainability. This last section also summarizes the risk management practices in both developing and developed countries for the purpose of improving the practices in the former by learning from the latter.
