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Modernizing the Framework for Fiscal Policy and Public Debt Sustainability Analysis

Author: International Monetary Fund

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2011-05-08

Total Pages: 59

ISBN-13: 1498338631

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Modernizing the framework for fiscal policy and public debt sustainability analysis (DSA) has become necessary, particularly in light of the recent crisis and rising sustainability concerns in some advanced economies. While recognizing the inherently challenging nature of such analysis, this paper highlights areas where improvements are needed and makes both general and specific proposals on how this could be achieved. It also proposes to move to a risk-based approach to DSAs for all market-access countries, where the depth and extent of analysis would be commensurate with concerns regarding sustainability, while a reasonable level of standardization would be maintained.

Book Synopsis Modernizing the Framework for Fiscal Policy and Public Debt Sustainability Analysis by : International Monetary Fund

Download or read book Modernizing the Framework for Fiscal Policy and Public Debt Sustainability Analysis written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-05-08 with total page 59 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Modernizing the framework for fiscal policy and public debt sustainability analysis (DSA) has become necessary, particularly in light of the recent crisis and rising sustainability concerns in some advanced economies. While recognizing the inherently challenging nature of such analysis, this paper highlights areas where improvements are needed and makes both general and specific proposals on how this could be achieved. It also proposes to move to a risk-based approach to DSAs for all market-access countries, where the depth and extent of analysis would be commensurate with concerns regarding sustainability, while a reasonable level of standardization would be maintained.

Quantifying the Sustainability of Public Debt

Author: Cansın Kemal Can

Publisher: Cambridge Scholars Publishing

Published: 2021-06-09

Total Pages: 156

ISBN-13: 1527570789

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Despite its beneficial aspects, public debt can be hazardous for macroeconomic performance should it reach unrepayable levels as a consequence of snowballing explosive trends. Failure to monitor the existing trend in public debt in order to detect such divergences from the stable path, and the lack of an adaptive public financial management can potentially culminate in a public debt crisis whose disruptive economic impacts can permeate all sectors of the economy very swiftly. However, public debt sustainability is a vague concept with no straightforward operational definitions. In addition, its multi-faceted nature is an impediment for the implementation of real-world appraisal of the fiscal posture from a stability viewpoint. As such, quantifying the public debt sustainability is essential for overhauling the fiscal policies so as to avoid a potential debt crisis stemming from malfunctioning fiscal policies. This book provides the reader with a practical and straightforward framework that outlines a tool for undertaking public debt sustainability analysis. In order to guide further empirical investigations, the discussion in this book is underpinned by a real-world application of the model which highlights the practical aspects of the tool with reference to time-varying empirical evidence from a developing country.

Book Synopsis Quantifying the Sustainability of Public Debt by : Cansın Kemal Can

Download or read book Quantifying the Sustainability of Public Debt written by Cansın Kemal Can and published by Cambridge Scholars Publishing. This book was released on 2021-06-09 with total page 156 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Despite its beneficial aspects, public debt can be hazardous for macroeconomic performance should it reach unrepayable levels as a consequence of snowballing explosive trends. Failure to monitor the existing trend in public debt in order to detect such divergences from the stable path, and the lack of an adaptive public financial management can potentially culminate in a public debt crisis whose disruptive economic impacts can permeate all sectors of the economy very swiftly. However, public debt sustainability is a vague concept with no straightforward operational definitions. In addition, its multi-faceted nature is an impediment for the implementation of real-world appraisal of the fiscal posture from a stability viewpoint. As such, quantifying the public debt sustainability is essential for overhauling the fiscal policies so as to avoid a potential debt crisis stemming from malfunctioning fiscal policies. This book provides the reader with a practical and straightforward framework that outlines a tool for undertaking public debt sustainability analysis. In order to guide further empirical investigations, the discussion in this book is underpinned by a real-world application of the model which highlights the practical aspects of the tool with reference to time-varying empirical evidence from a developing country.

Staff Guidance Note for Public Debt Sustainability Analysis in Market-Access Countries

Author: International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2013-05-06

Total Pages: 55

ISBN-13: 1498341845

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The framework for fiscal policy and public debt sustainability analysis (DSA) in market-access countries (MACs) was reviewed by the Executive Board in August 2011.1 The review responded to shortcomings in identifying fiscal vulnerabilities and assessing risks to debt sustainability against the backdrop of increased concerns over fiscal policy and public debt sustainability in many advanced economies.

Book Synopsis Staff Guidance Note for Public Debt Sustainability Analysis in Market-Access Countries by : International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.

Download or read book Staff Guidance Note for Public Debt Sustainability Analysis in Market-Access Countries written by International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-05-06 with total page 55 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The framework for fiscal policy and public debt sustainability analysis (DSA) in market-access countries (MACs) was reviewed by the Executive Board in August 2011.1 The review responded to shortcomings in identifying fiscal vulnerabilities and assessing risks to debt sustainability against the backdrop of increased concerns over fiscal policy and public debt sustainability in many advanced economies.

Public Debt Sustainability Under Uncertainty

Author: Rossen Rozenov

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2017-03-13

Total Pages: 28

ISBN-13: 1475587023

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The paper offers an approach to assessing the sustainability of public debt taking into account the effect of fiscal policy on output, as well as uncertainty in the model parameters and system dynamics. Uncertainty is specified in general terms, and the analysis is based on the notion of invariant sets. Examples are provided to illustrate how the method can be applied in practice.

Book Synopsis Public Debt Sustainability Under Uncertainty by : Rossen Rozenov

Download or read book Public Debt Sustainability Under Uncertainty written by Rossen Rozenov and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-03-13 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper offers an approach to assessing the sustainability of public debt taking into account the effect of fiscal policy on output, as well as uncertainty in the model parameters and system dynamics. Uncertainty is specified in general terms, and the analysis is based on the notion of invariant sets. Examples are provided to illustrate how the method can be applied in practice.

Review of The Debt Sustainability Framework For Market Access Countries

Author: International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2021-02-03

Total Pages: 124

ISBN-13: 1513568329

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A careful review has revealed significant scope to modernize and better align the MAC DSA with its objectives and the IMF’s lending framework. This note proposes replacing the current framework with a new methodology based on risk assessments at three different horizons. Extensive testing has shown that the proposed framework has much better predictive accuracy than the current one. In addition to predicting sovereign stress, the framework can be used to derive statements about debt stabilization under current policies and about debt sustainability.

Book Synopsis Review of The Debt Sustainability Framework For Market Access Countries by : International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department

Download or read book Review of The Debt Sustainability Framework For Market Access Countries written by International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-02-03 with total page 124 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A careful review has revealed significant scope to modernize and better align the MAC DSA with its objectives and the IMF’s lending framework. This note proposes replacing the current framework with a new methodology based on risk assessments at three different horizons. Extensive testing has shown that the proposed framework has much better predictive accuracy than the current one. In addition to predicting sovereign stress, the framework can be used to derive statements about debt stabilization under current policies and about debt sustainability.

A Stochastic Framework for Public Debt Sustainability Analysis

Author: Gabriel Di Bella

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2008-03

Total Pages: 32

ISBN-13:

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This paper proposes a framework for public debt sustainability analysis (DSA) that is complementary to that generally used by IFIs. The DSA in this paper has three components: (i) an integrated and consistent accounting framework for the Consolidated Public Sector (CPS); (ii) the estimation of an appropriate, and country-specific debt threshold, following the approach proposed by Reinhart, Rogoff and Savastano (2003); and (iii) a method for the calculation of the CPS primary balance to achieve the desired debt targets, without resorting to ad-hoc assumptions for the values of the macroeconomic variables during the planning horizon, in the spirit of Garcia and Rigobon (2004) and Celasun, Debrun and Ostry (2006). The paper uses this approach to analyze the sustainability of the Dominican Republic's Public Debt.

Book Synopsis A Stochastic Framework for Public Debt Sustainability Analysis by : Gabriel Di Bella

Download or read book A Stochastic Framework for Public Debt Sustainability Analysis written by Gabriel Di Bella and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2008-03 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper proposes a framework for public debt sustainability analysis (DSA) that is complementary to that generally used by IFIs. The DSA in this paper has three components: (i) an integrated and consistent accounting framework for the Consolidated Public Sector (CPS); (ii) the estimation of an appropriate, and country-specific debt threshold, following the approach proposed by Reinhart, Rogoff and Savastano (2003); and (iii) a method for the calculation of the CPS primary balance to achieve the desired debt targets, without resorting to ad-hoc assumptions for the values of the macroeconomic variables during the planning horizon, in the spirit of Garcia and Rigobon (2004) and Celasun, Debrun and Ostry (2006). The paper uses this approach to analyze the sustainability of the Dominican Republic's Public Debt.

Public Debt Sustainability

Author: Barry W. Poulson

Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield

Published: 2022-01-04

Total Pages: 389

ISBN-13: 1666902578

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As countries recover from the coronavirus pandemic, they are confronted with an even more challenging debt crisis. Xavier Debrun argues in the foreword that in deciding where we go from here that there is no longer a consensus regarding the optimum design and enforcement of fiscal rules. Rather we must address a series of questions and challenges to the conventional wisdom. This book provides an opportunity for scholars to explore these questions from an international perspective, with reference to European countries, and emerging nations as well as the United States.

Book Synopsis Public Debt Sustainability by : Barry W. Poulson

Download or read book Public Debt Sustainability written by Barry W. Poulson and published by Rowman & Littlefield. This book was released on 2022-01-04 with total page 389 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As countries recover from the coronavirus pandemic, they are confronted with an even more challenging debt crisis. Xavier Debrun argues in the foreword that in deciding where we go from here that there is no longer a consensus regarding the optimum design and enforcement of fiscal rules. Rather we must address a series of questions and challenges to the conventional wisdom. This book provides an opportunity for scholars to explore these questions from an international perspective, with reference to European countries, and emerging nations as well as the United States.

Public Debt Sustainability in Developing Asia

Author: Benno Ferrarini

Publisher: Routledge

Published: 2012-11-12

Total Pages: 227

ISBN-13: 1136199896

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Addressing the Global Financial Crisis required fiscal intervention on a substantial scale by governments around the world. The consequent build up of public debt, in particular its sustainability, have moved centre stage in the policy debate. If the Asia Pacific region is to continue to serve as an engine for global growth its public debt must be sustainable. The book addresses this issue for Asia Pacific as a whole as well as for three of the most dynamic economies in the region: China, India and Vietnam. The book begins with a discussion of the reasons why there is increased attention on debt related issues and outline the contents of the volume. The book also includes fiscal indicators for Developing Member Countries (DMCs) as categorized by the Asian Development Bank (ADB). Debt sustainability for these countries is assessed through extant approaches and with the most updated data sources. It also surveys the extant literature on debt sustainability, outlining the main issues related to debt sustainability and discusses the key implications for the application of debt sustainability analysis in developing Asia. The book highlights the importance of doing individual country studies in view of wide variations in definitions of public expenditure, revenues, contingent liabilities, government structures (e.g. federal), and the like as well as in the impact of debt on interest rates. It provides in-depth debt sustainability analyses of China, India and Vietnam. The book is a comprehensive analytical and empirical update of the sustainability public debt in developing Asia. It breakes new ground in that various characteristics of the sustainability that have not yet been explored in the literature which, nevertheless, are crucial to understanding it. As a consequence, the policy analysis is based on firmer footings than in the extant literature and should prove useful to graduate students, researchers as well as policymakers.

Book Synopsis Public Debt Sustainability in Developing Asia by : Benno Ferrarini

Download or read book Public Debt Sustainability in Developing Asia written by Benno Ferrarini and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2012-11-12 with total page 227 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Addressing the Global Financial Crisis required fiscal intervention on a substantial scale by governments around the world. The consequent build up of public debt, in particular its sustainability, have moved centre stage in the policy debate. If the Asia Pacific region is to continue to serve as an engine for global growth its public debt must be sustainable. The book addresses this issue for Asia Pacific as a whole as well as for three of the most dynamic economies in the region: China, India and Vietnam. The book begins with a discussion of the reasons why there is increased attention on debt related issues and outline the contents of the volume. The book also includes fiscal indicators for Developing Member Countries (DMCs) as categorized by the Asian Development Bank (ADB). Debt sustainability for these countries is assessed through extant approaches and with the most updated data sources. It also surveys the extant literature on debt sustainability, outlining the main issues related to debt sustainability and discusses the key implications for the application of debt sustainability analysis in developing Asia. The book highlights the importance of doing individual country studies in view of wide variations in definitions of public expenditure, revenues, contingent liabilities, government structures (e.g. federal), and the like as well as in the impact of debt on interest rates. It provides in-depth debt sustainability analyses of China, India and Vietnam. The book is a comprehensive analytical and empirical update of the sustainability public debt in developing Asia. It breakes new ground in that various characteristics of the sustainability that have not yet been explored in the literature which, nevertheless, are crucial to understanding it. As a consequence, the policy analysis is based on firmer footings than in the extant literature and should prove useful to graduate students, researchers as well as policymakers.

Fiscal Sustainability in Theory and Practice

Author: Craig Burnside

Publisher: World Bank Publications

Published: 2005

Total Pages: 312

ISBN-13: 9780821358740

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Topics discussed in this publication include: an introduction to theoretical and practical aspects of fiscal sustainability; theoretical prerequisites for fiscal sustainability analysis; debt indicators in the measurement of vulnerability; cyclical adjustment of budget surplus; pro-cyclical fiscal policy using Mexico's fiscal accounts as a case study; fiscal rules and the experience of Chile; currency crises and models for deal with financing costs.

Book Synopsis Fiscal Sustainability in Theory and Practice by : Craig Burnside

Download or read book Fiscal Sustainability in Theory and Practice written by Craig Burnside and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2005 with total page 312 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Topics discussed in this publication include: an introduction to theoretical and practical aspects of fiscal sustainability; theoretical prerequisites for fiscal sustainability analysis; debt indicators in the measurement of vulnerability; cyclical adjustment of budget surplus; pro-cyclical fiscal policy using Mexico's fiscal accounts as a case study; fiscal rules and the experience of Chile; currency crises and models for deal with financing costs.

Restoring Public Debt Sustainability

Author: George Kopits

Publisher: Oxford University Press

Published: 2013-10

Total Pages: 300

ISBN-13: 0199644470

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Restoring Public Debt Sustainability represents the first comprehensive survey of a new generation of independent fiscal institutions, established to promote transparency in public finances through real-time monitoring of the soundness of budgetary policymaking. The chapters, written by heads of the institutions, as well as distinguished policy analysts and academics, explore the rationale and experience of these fiscal watchdogs. Consequently, useful lessons and implications are drawn for the design and practical operation of such institutions. The timeliness of the volume is underscored by the potential role of fiscal watchdogs in containing the public debt crisis that has engulfed a number of countries. Specifically, the recent proliferation of these institutions has been largely in response to the need for enhancing policy credibility of highly indebted governments in financial markets, and for strengthening the quality of economic governance-especially in the current European context. The first part of the book deals with key analytical and institutional issues: the political environment, the scope and limits of these institutions, and a comparison to delegation of monetary policymaking to an independent body. The second part contains case studies of institutions that were born as a result of domestic developments. The third part presents the experience of institutions in Sweden, Hungary, and the United Kingdom, whose origins can be traced directly or indirectly to an earlier or a recent external financial crisis. The chapters are written from a multidisciplinary (economic, financial, political, legal) perspective, intended for academics, researchers, and practitioners alike.

Book Synopsis Restoring Public Debt Sustainability by : George Kopits

Download or read book Restoring Public Debt Sustainability written by George Kopits and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2013-10 with total page 300 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Restoring Public Debt Sustainability represents the first comprehensive survey of a new generation of independent fiscal institutions, established to promote transparency in public finances through real-time monitoring of the soundness of budgetary policymaking. The chapters, written by heads of the institutions, as well as distinguished policy analysts and academics, explore the rationale and experience of these fiscal watchdogs. Consequently, useful lessons and implications are drawn for the design and practical operation of such institutions. The timeliness of the volume is underscored by the potential role of fiscal watchdogs in containing the public debt crisis that has engulfed a number of countries. Specifically, the recent proliferation of these institutions has been largely in response to the need for enhancing policy credibility of highly indebted governments in financial markets, and for strengthening the quality of economic governance-especially in the current European context. The first part of the book deals with key analytical and institutional issues: the political environment, the scope and limits of these institutions, and a comparison to delegation of monetary policymaking to an independent body. The second part contains case studies of institutions that were born as a result of domestic developments. The third part presents the experience of institutions in Sweden, Hungary, and the United Kingdom, whose origins can be traced directly or indirectly to an earlier or a recent external financial crisis. The chapters are written from a multidisciplinary (economic, financial, political, legal) perspective, intended for academics, researchers, and practitioners alike.