Mr. Taylor and the Central Bank: Two Inference Exercises

Mr. Taylor and the Central Bank: Two Inference Exercises

Author: Francesco Luna

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2019-02-15

Total Pages: 16

ISBN-13: 1484397029

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Many observers argue that the world has changed after the latest financial crisis. If that is the case, monetary policy and the process informing it will have to be reconsidered and “learned” anew by all stakeholders. Perhaps, a new Taylor rule will emerge. A “Taylor rule” is predicated upon two successful inference exercises: one by the researcher who is interested in identifying the Central Bank’s behavior and one by the Central Bank, which tries to infer how the economy works and interacts with its monetary policy interventions. Because of certain granularities imposed by institutional arrangements and the need for transparent communication in policy making, this paper proposes an analytical framework based on computability theory to model these inference exercises and to assess their general possibility of success. So, is it possible to infer/learn the central bank’s policy rule? The answer is a qualified positive and depends on the “complexity” of the economy and on the quality of information. As for policy implications, the results show that transparency and understandable “reaction functions” will go a long way in fostering learnability.


Book Synopsis Mr. Taylor and the Central Bank: Two Inference Exercises by : Francesco Luna

Download or read book Mr. Taylor and the Central Bank: Two Inference Exercises written by Francesco Luna and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-02-15 with total page 16 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Many observers argue that the world has changed after the latest financial crisis. If that is the case, monetary policy and the process informing it will have to be reconsidered and “learned” anew by all stakeholders. Perhaps, a new Taylor rule will emerge. A “Taylor rule” is predicated upon two successful inference exercises: one by the researcher who is interested in identifying the Central Bank’s behavior and one by the Central Bank, which tries to infer how the economy works and interacts with its monetary policy interventions. Because of certain granularities imposed by institutional arrangements and the need for transparent communication in policy making, this paper proposes an analytical framework based on computability theory to model these inference exercises and to assess their general possibility of success. So, is it possible to infer/learn the central bank’s policy rule? The answer is a qualified positive and depends on the “complexity” of the economy and on the quality of information. As for policy implications, the results show that transparency and understandable “reaction functions” will go a long way in fostering learnability.

Mr. Taylor and the Central Bank: Two Inference Exercises

Mr. Taylor and the Central Bank: Two Inference Exercises

Author: Francesco Luna

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2019-02-15

Total Pages: 16

ISBN-13: 1498301290

DOWNLOAD EBOOK

Many observers argue that the world has changed after the latest financial crisis. If that is the case, monetary policy and the process informing it will have to be reconsidered and “learned” anew by all stakeholders. Perhaps, a new Taylor rule will emerge. A “Taylor rule” is predicated upon two successful inference exercises: one by the researcher who is interested in identifying the Central Bank’s behavior and one by the Central Bank, which tries to infer how the economy works and interacts with its monetary policy interventions. Because of certain granularities imposed by institutional arrangements and the need for transparent communication in policy making, this paper proposes an analytical framework based on computability theory to model these inference exercises and to assess their general possibility of success. So, is it possible to infer/learn the central bank’s policy rule? The answer is a qualified positive and depends on the “complexity” of the economy and on the quality of information. As for policy implications, the results show that transparency and understandable “reaction functions” will go a long way in fostering learnability.


Book Synopsis Mr. Taylor and the Central Bank: Two Inference Exercises by : Francesco Luna

Download or read book Mr. Taylor and the Central Bank: Two Inference Exercises written by Francesco Luna and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-02-15 with total page 16 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Many observers argue that the world has changed after the latest financial crisis. If that is the case, monetary policy and the process informing it will have to be reconsidered and “learned” anew by all stakeholders. Perhaps, a new Taylor rule will emerge. A “Taylor rule” is predicated upon two successful inference exercises: one by the researcher who is interested in identifying the Central Bank’s behavior and one by the Central Bank, which tries to infer how the economy works and interacts with its monetary policy interventions. Because of certain granularities imposed by institutional arrangements and the need for transparent communication in policy making, this paper proposes an analytical framework based on computability theory to model these inference exercises and to assess their general possibility of success. So, is it possible to infer/learn the central bank’s policy rule? The answer is a qualified positive and depends on the “complexity” of the economy and on the quality of information. As for policy implications, the results show that transparency and understandable “reaction functions” will go a long way in fostering learnability.

The Handbook of Global Shadow Banking, Volume I

The Handbook of Global Shadow Banking, Volume I

Author: Luc Nijs

Publisher: Springer Nature

Published: 2020-06-30

Total Pages: 822

ISBN-13: 3030347435

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This global handbook provides an up-to-date and comprehensive overview of shadow banking, or market-based finance as it has been recently coined. Engaging in financial intermediary services outside of normal regulatory parameters, the shadow banking sector was arguably a critical factor in causing the 2007-2009 financial crisis. This volume focuses specifically on shadow banking activities, risk, policy and regulatory issues. It evaluates the nexus between policy design and regulatory output around the world, paying attention to the concept of risk in all its dimensions—the legal, financial, market, economic and monetary perspectives. Particular attention is given to spillover risk, contagion risk and systemic risk and their positioning and relevance in shadow banking activities. Newly introduced and incoming policies are evaluated in detail, as well as how risk is managed, observed and assessed, and how new regulation can potentially create new sources of risk. Volume I concludes with analysis of what will and still needs to happen in the event of another crisis. Proposing innovative suggestions for improvement, including a novel Pigovian tax to tame financial and systemic risks, this handbook is a must-read for professionals and policy-makers within the banking sector, as well as those researching economics and finance.


Book Synopsis The Handbook of Global Shadow Banking, Volume I by : Luc Nijs

Download or read book The Handbook of Global Shadow Banking, Volume I written by Luc Nijs and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-06-30 with total page 822 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This global handbook provides an up-to-date and comprehensive overview of shadow banking, or market-based finance as it has been recently coined. Engaging in financial intermediary services outside of normal regulatory parameters, the shadow banking sector was arguably a critical factor in causing the 2007-2009 financial crisis. This volume focuses specifically on shadow banking activities, risk, policy and regulatory issues. It evaluates the nexus between policy design and regulatory output around the world, paying attention to the concept of risk in all its dimensions—the legal, financial, market, economic and monetary perspectives. Particular attention is given to spillover risk, contagion risk and systemic risk and their positioning and relevance in shadow banking activities. Newly introduced and incoming policies are evaluated in detail, as well as how risk is managed, observed and assessed, and how new regulation can potentially create new sources of risk. Volume I concludes with analysis of what will and still needs to happen in the event of another crisis. Proposing innovative suggestions for improvement, including a novel Pigovian tax to tame financial and systemic risks, this handbook is a must-read for professionals and policy-makers within the banking sector, as well as those researching economics and finance.

How Do Central Banks Talk?

How Do Central Banks Talk?

Author: Alan S. Blinder

Publisher: Centre for Economic Policy Research

Published: 2001

Total Pages: 150

ISBN-13: 9781898128601

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Not long ago, secrecy was the byword in central banking circles, but now the unmistakable trend is towards greater openness and transparency. This, the third Geneva Report on the World Economy, describes and evaluates some of the changes in how central banks talk to the markets, to the press, and to the public. The report first assesses the case for transparency ? defined as providing sufficient information for the public to understand the policy regime ? and concludes that it is very strong, based on both policy effectiveness and democratic accountability. It then examines what should be the content of communication and argues that central banks ought to spell out their long-run objectives and methods. It then investigates the link between the decision-making process and central bank communication, drawing a distinction between individualistic and collegial committees. The report concludes with a review of the communications strategies of some of the main central banks.


Book Synopsis How Do Central Banks Talk? by : Alan S. Blinder

Download or read book How Do Central Banks Talk? written by Alan S. Blinder and published by Centre for Economic Policy Research. This book was released on 2001 with total page 150 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Not long ago, secrecy was the byword in central banking circles, but now the unmistakable trend is towards greater openness and transparency. This, the third Geneva Report on the World Economy, describes and evaluates some of the changes in how central banks talk to the markets, to the press, and to the public. The report first assesses the case for transparency ? defined as providing sufficient information for the public to understand the policy regime ? and concludes that it is very strong, based on both policy effectiveness and democratic accountability. It then examines what should be the content of communication and argues that central banks ought to spell out their long-run objectives and methods. It then investigates the link between the decision-making process and central bank communication, drawing a distinction between individualistic and collegial committees. The report concludes with a review of the communications strategies of some of the main central banks.

The Spectator

The Spectator

Author:

Publisher:

Published: 1853

Total Pages: 1378

ISBN-13:

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A weekly review of politics, literature, theology, and art.


Book Synopsis The Spectator by :

Download or read book The Spectator written by and published by . This book was released on 1853 with total page 1378 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A weekly review of politics, literature, theology, and art.

The Annalist

The Annalist

Author:

Publisher:

Published: 1935

Total Pages: 994

ISBN-13:

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Book Synopsis The Annalist by :

Download or read book The Annalist written by and published by . This book was released on 1935 with total page 994 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Indian Economy: Empirical Analysis On Monetary And Financial Issues In India

Indian Economy: Empirical Analysis On Monetary And Financial Issues In India

Author: Shigeyuki Hamori

Publisher: World Scientific

Published: 2014-09-05

Total Pages: 175

ISBN-13: 981457192X

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India's financial sector has undergone significant changes following the start of the economic liberalization in the early 1990s. In addition to providing important information on monetary and financial issues in India, this book also provides examples to analyze a developing economy by using macro-financial data. The book also focuses on three main topics, that is, monetary policy, financial markets and finance-poverty nexus, and provides new insights into these issues by applying some recently developed quantitative techniques.


Book Synopsis Indian Economy: Empirical Analysis On Monetary And Financial Issues In India by : Shigeyuki Hamori

Download or read book Indian Economy: Empirical Analysis On Monetary And Financial Issues In India written by Shigeyuki Hamori and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2014-09-05 with total page 175 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: India's financial sector has undergone significant changes following the start of the economic liberalization in the early 1990s. In addition to providing important information on monetary and financial issues in India, this book also provides examples to analyze a developing economy by using macro-financial data. The book also focuses on three main topics, that is, monetary policy, financial markets and finance-poverty nexus, and provides new insights into these issues by applying some recently developed quantitative techniques.

Costs of Sovereign Defaults: Restructuring Strategies, Bank Distress and the Capital Inflow-Credit Channel

Costs of Sovereign Defaults: Restructuring Strategies, Bank Distress and the Capital Inflow-Credit Channel

Author: Mr.Tamon Asonuma

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2019-03-25

Total Pages: 91

ISBN-13: 1498303250

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Sovereign debt restructurings are associated with declines in GDP, investment, bank credit, and capital flows. The transmission channels and associated output and banking sector costs depend on whether the restructuring takes place preemptively, without missing payments to creditors, or whether it takes place after a default has occurred. Post-default restructurings are associated with larger declines in bank credit, an increase in lending interest rates, and a higher likelihood of triggering a banking crisis than pre-emptive restructurings. Our local projection estimates show large declines in GDP, investment, and credit amplified by severe sudden stops and transmitted through a “capital inflow-credit channel”.


Book Synopsis Costs of Sovereign Defaults: Restructuring Strategies, Bank Distress and the Capital Inflow-Credit Channel by : Mr.Tamon Asonuma

Download or read book Costs of Sovereign Defaults: Restructuring Strategies, Bank Distress and the Capital Inflow-Credit Channel written by Mr.Tamon Asonuma and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-03-25 with total page 91 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Sovereign debt restructurings are associated with declines in GDP, investment, bank credit, and capital flows. The transmission channels and associated output and banking sector costs depend on whether the restructuring takes place preemptively, without missing payments to creditors, or whether it takes place after a default has occurred. Post-default restructurings are associated with larger declines in bank credit, an increase in lending interest rates, and a higher likelihood of triggering a banking crisis than pre-emptive restructurings. Our local projection estimates show large declines in GDP, investment, and credit amplified by severe sudden stops and transmitted through a “capital inflow-credit channel”.

Leaning Against the Wind: A Cost-Benefit Analysis for an Integrated Policy Framework

Leaning Against the Wind: A Cost-Benefit Analysis for an Integrated Policy Framework

Author: Mr.Luis Brandao-Marques

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2020-07-07

Total Pages: 59

ISBN-13: 1513549650

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This paper takes a new approach to assess the costs and benefits of using different policy tools—macroprudential, monetary, foreign exchange interventions, and capital flow management—in response to changes in financial conditions. The approach evaluates net benefits of policies using quadratic loss functions, estimating policy effects on the full distribution of future output growth and inflation with quantile regressions. Tightening macroprudential policy dampens downside risks to growth stemming from loose financial conditions, and is beneficial in net terms. By contrast, tightening monetary policy entails net losses, calling for caution in the use of monetary policy to “lean against the wind.” These findings hold when policies are used in response to easing global financial conditions. Buying foreign-exchange or tightening capital controls has small net benefits.


Book Synopsis Leaning Against the Wind: A Cost-Benefit Analysis for an Integrated Policy Framework by : Mr.Luis Brandao-Marques

Download or read book Leaning Against the Wind: A Cost-Benefit Analysis for an Integrated Policy Framework written by Mr.Luis Brandao-Marques and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-07-07 with total page 59 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper takes a new approach to assess the costs and benefits of using different policy tools—macroprudential, monetary, foreign exchange interventions, and capital flow management—in response to changes in financial conditions. The approach evaluates net benefits of policies using quadratic loss functions, estimating policy effects on the full distribution of future output growth and inflation with quantile regressions. Tightening macroprudential policy dampens downside risks to growth stemming from loose financial conditions, and is beneficial in net terms. By contrast, tightening monetary policy entails net losses, calling for caution in the use of monetary policy to “lean against the wind.” These findings hold when policies are used in response to easing global financial conditions. Buying foreign-exchange or tightening capital controls has small net benefits.

The New Age

The New Age

Author: Arthur Moore

Publisher:

Published: 1924

Total Pages: 336

ISBN-13:

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Book Synopsis The New Age by : Arthur Moore

Download or read book The New Age written by Arthur Moore and published by . This book was released on 1924 with total page 336 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: