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New Challenges, New Tools for Defense Decisionmaking

Author: Stuart E. Johnson

Publisher: Rand Corporation

Published: 2003-03-31

Total Pages: 415

ISBN-13: 0833034103

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It is still easy to underestimate how much the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War?--and then the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001?--transformed the task of American foreign and defense policymaking. In place of predictability (if a sometimes terrifying predictability), the world is now very unpredictable. In place of a single overriding threat and benchmark by which all else could be measured, a number of possible threats have arisen, not all of them states. In place of force-on-force engagements, U.S. defense planners have to assume "asymmetric" threats?--ways not to defeat U.S. power but to render it irrelevant. This book frames the challenges for defense policy that the transformed world engenders, and it sketches new tools for dealing with those challenges?--from new techniques in modeling and gaming, to planning based on capabilities rather than threats, to personnel planning and making use of "best practices" from the private sector.

Book Synopsis New Challenges, New Tools for Defense Decisionmaking by : Stuart E. Johnson

Download or read book New Challenges, New Tools for Defense Decisionmaking written by Stuart E. Johnson and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2003-03-31 with total page 415 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It is still easy to underestimate how much the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War?--and then the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001?--transformed the task of American foreign and defense policymaking. In place of predictability (if a sometimes terrifying predictability), the world is now very unpredictable. In place of a single overriding threat and benchmark by which all else could be measured, a number of possible threats have arisen, not all of them states. In place of force-on-force engagements, U.S. defense planners have to assume "asymmetric" threats?--ways not to defeat U.S. power but to render it irrelevant. This book frames the challenges for defense policy that the transformed world engenders, and it sketches new tools for dealing with those challenges?--from new techniques in modeling and gaming, to planning based on capabilities rather than threats, to personnel planning and making use of "best practices" from the private sector.

New Challenges, New Tools for Defense Decisionmaking

Author: Stuart E. Johnson

Publisher: Rand Corporation

Published: 2003

Total Pages: 415

ISBN-13: 0833032895

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The collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold WarÃ‘and then the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001Ã‘transformed the task of American foreign and defense policymaking. This book outlines the dimensions of that transformation and sketches new tools for dealing with the policy challengesÃ‘from modeling and gaming, to planning based on capabilities rather than threats, to personnel planning and making use of "best practices" from the private sector.

Book Synopsis New Challenges, New Tools for Defense Decisionmaking by : Stuart E. Johnson

Download or read book New Challenges, New Tools for Defense Decisionmaking written by Stuart E. Johnson and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2003 with total page 415 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold WarÃ‘and then the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001Ã‘transformed the task of American foreign and defense policymaking. This book outlines the dimensions of that transformation and sketches new tools for dealing with the policy challengesÃ‘from modeling and gaming, to planning based on capabilities rather than threats, to personnel planning and making use of "best practices" from the private sector.

Implications of Modern Decision Science for Military Decision-support Systems

Author: Paul K. Davis

Publisher: Rand Corporation

Published: 2005

Total Pages: 181

ISBN-13: 0833038087

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A selective review of modern decision science and implications for decision-support systems. The study suggests ways to synthesize lessons from research on heuristics and biases with those from "naturalistic research." It also discusses modern tools, such as increasingly realistic simulations, multiresolution modeling, and exploratory analysis, which can assist decisionmakers in choosing strategies that are flexible, adaptive, and robust.

Book Synopsis Implications of Modern Decision Science for Military Decision-support Systems by : Paul K. Davis

Download or read book Implications of Modern Decision Science for Military Decision-support Systems written by Paul K. Davis and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2005 with total page 181 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A selective review of modern decision science and implications for decision-support systems. The study suggests ways to synthesize lessons from research on heuristics and biases with those from "naturalistic research." It also discusses modern tools, such as increasingly realistic simulations, multiresolution modeling, and exploratory analysis, which can assist decisionmakers in choosing strategies that are flexible, adaptive, and robust.

Defense Modeling, Simulation, and Analysis

Author: National Research Council

Publisher: National Academies Press

Published: 2006-09-22

Total Pages: 96

ISBN-13: 0309180732

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Modeling, simulation, and analysis (MS&A) is a crucial tool for military affairs. MS&A is one of the announced pillars of a strategy for transforming the U.S. military. Yet changes in the enterprise of MS&A have not kept pace with the new demands arising from rapid changes in DOD processes and missions or with the rapid changes in the technology available to meet those demands. To help address those concerns, DOD asked the NRC to identify shortcomings in current practice of MS&A and suggest where and how they should be resolved. This report provides an assessment of the changing mission of DOD and environment in which it must operate, an identification of high-level opportunities for MS&A research to address the expanded mission, approaches for improving the interface between MS&A practitioners and decision makers, a discussion of training and continuing education of MS&A practitioners, and an examination of the need for coordinated military science research to support MS&A.

Book Synopsis Defense Modeling, Simulation, and Analysis by : National Research Council

Download or read book Defense Modeling, Simulation, and Analysis written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2006-09-22 with total page 96 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Modeling, simulation, and analysis (MS&A) is a crucial tool for military affairs. MS&A is one of the announced pillars of a strategy for transforming the U.S. military. Yet changes in the enterprise of MS&A have not kept pace with the new demands arising from rapid changes in DOD processes and missions or with the rapid changes in the technology available to meet those demands. To help address those concerns, DOD asked the NRC to identify shortcomings in current practice of MS&A and suggest where and how they should be resolved. This report provides an assessment of the changing mission of DOD and environment in which it must operate, an identification of high-level opportunities for MS&A research to address the expanded mission, approaches for improving the interface between MS&A practitioners and decision makers, a discussion of training and continuing education of MS&A practitioners, and an examination of the need for coordinated military science research to support MS&A.

How Much Is Enough?

Author: Alain C. Enthoven

Publisher: Rand Corporation

Published: 2005-10-18

Total Pages: 395

ISBN-13: 0833048147

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Originally published in 1971, and now published with a new foreword, this is a book of enduring value and lasting relevance. The authors detail the application, history, and controversies surrounding the Planning, Programming, and Budgeting System (PPBS), used to evaluate military needs and to choose among alternatives for meeting those needs.

Book Synopsis How Much Is Enough? by : Alain C. Enthoven

Download or read book How Much Is Enough? written by Alain C. Enthoven and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2005-10-18 with total page 395 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Originally published in 1971, and now published with a new foreword, this is a book of enduring value and lasting relevance. The authors detail the application, history, and controversies surrounding the Planning, Programming, and Budgeting System (PPBS), used to evaluate military needs and to choose among alternatives for meeting those needs.

Global Trends 2040

Author: National Intelligence Council

Publisher: Cosimo Reports

Published: 2021-03

Total Pages: 158

ISBN-13: 9781646794973

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"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.

Book Synopsis Global Trends 2040 by : National Intelligence Council

Download or read book Global Trends 2040 written by National Intelligence Council and published by Cosimo Reports. This book was released on 2021-03 with total page 158 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.

Decision-making for Defense

Author: Charles Johnston Hitch

Publisher: Univ of California Press

Published: 1967

Total Pages: 83

ISBN-13:

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Book Synopsis Decision-making for Defense by : Charles Johnston Hitch

Download or read book Decision-making for Defense written by Charles Johnston Hitch and published by Univ of California Press. This book was released on 1967 with total page 83 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

A New Direction for China's Defense Industry

Author: Evan S. Medeiros

Publisher: Rand Corporation

Published: 2005-12-19

Total Pages: 331

ISBN-13: 0833040790

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Since the early 1980s, a prominent and consistent conclusion drawn from research on China's defense-industrial complex has been that China's defense-production capabilities are rife with weaknesses and limitations. This study argues for an alternative approach: From the vantage point of 2005, it is time to shift the focus of current research to the gradual improvements in and the future potential of China's defense-industrial complex. The study found that China's defense sectors are designing and producing a wide range of increasingly advanced weapons that, in the short term, are relevant to a possible conflict over Taiwan but also to China's long-term military presence in Asia. Part of a larger RAND Project AIR FORCE study on Chinese military modernization, this study examines the current and future capabilities of China's defense industry. The goals of this study are to 1.

Book Synopsis A New Direction for China's Defense Industry by : Evan S. Medeiros

Download or read book A New Direction for China's Defense Industry written by Evan S. Medeiros and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2005-12-19 with total page 331 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since the early 1980s, a prominent and consistent conclusion drawn from research on China's defense-industrial complex has been that China's defense-production capabilities are rife with weaknesses and limitations. This study argues for an alternative approach: From the vantage point of 2005, it is time to shift the focus of current research to the gradual improvements in and the future potential of China's defense-industrial complex. The study found that China's defense sectors are designing and producing a wide range of increasingly advanced weapons that, in the short term, are relevant to a possible conflict over Taiwan but also to China's long-term military presence in Asia. Part of a larger RAND Project AIR FORCE study on Chinese military modernization, this study examines the current and future capabilities of China's defense industry. The goals of this study are to 1.

Theory and Methods for Supporting High Level Military Decisionmaking

Author: Paul K. Davis

Publisher: Rand Corporation

Published: 2007

Total Pages: 106

ISBN-13: 0833040391

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This report describes an approach to high-level decision support for a Joint Forces Air Component Commander in combat operations or a Chief of Staff in defense planning. Its central theme is the fundamental importance of dealing effectively with uncertainty, whether in effects-based operations, building the Air Force's Commander's Predictive Environment, or planning future forces with the methods of capabilities-based planning. Because many features of the future cannot be predicted with reasonable confidence, it is better to proceed with the expectation of surprise developments and to have skill in recognizing adaptations and making them than it is to treat uncertainty merely as an annoyance. This report sketches the framework of a high-level decision-support environment that is top-down, expresses concepts in simple and intuitive language, deals explicitly with risk and uncertainty, and provides the capability for decisionmakers to readily discover and question the bases for key assumptions and assessments. It can accommodate both "rational-analytic" and "naturalistic" decisionmakers, allowing them to produce strategies that are flexible, adaptive, and robust (FAR). Two explicit methods and their related tools are described. The first involves portfolio-style thinking and analysis, a good mechanism for balancing risks and other considerations in choosing a course of action. The second is a novel modification of foresight exercises that addresses the need to include humans effectively in dealing with uncertainty. A more extensive discussion of available methods and enabling technologies is also presented, along with some recommendations about investment priorities.

Book Synopsis Theory and Methods for Supporting High Level Military Decisionmaking by : Paul K. Davis

Download or read book Theory and Methods for Supporting High Level Military Decisionmaking written by Paul K. Davis and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2007 with total page 106 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report describes an approach to high-level decision support for a Joint Forces Air Component Commander in combat operations or a Chief of Staff in defense planning. Its central theme is the fundamental importance of dealing effectively with uncertainty, whether in effects-based operations, building the Air Force's Commander's Predictive Environment, or planning future forces with the methods of capabilities-based planning. Because many features of the future cannot be predicted with reasonable confidence, it is better to proceed with the expectation of surprise developments and to have skill in recognizing adaptations and making them than it is to treat uncertainty merely as an annoyance. This report sketches the framework of a high-level decision-support environment that is top-down, expresses concepts in simple and intuitive language, deals explicitly with risk and uncertainty, and provides the capability for decisionmakers to readily discover and question the bases for key assumptions and assessments. It can accommodate both "rational-analytic" and "naturalistic" decisionmakers, allowing them to produce strategies that are flexible, adaptive, and robust (FAR). Two explicit methods and their related tools are described. The first involves portfolio-style thinking and analysis, a good mechanism for balancing risks and other considerations in choosing a course of action. The second is a novel modification of foresight exercises that addresses the need to include humans effectively in dealing with uncertainty. A more extensive discussion of available methods and enabling technologies is also presented, along with some recommendations about investment priorities.

Analysis, Analysis Practices, and Implications for Modeling and Simulation

Author: Paul K. Davis

Publisher: Rand Corporation

Published: 2007

Total Pages: 89

ISBN-13: 0833041266

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An examination of analysis and analysis practices for defense planning, the paper1s purpose is to delineate priorities for the way ahead, i.e., for investments and other actions to ensure that future models and simulations will serve the needs of decisionmakers. The analysis in question is accomplished for Quadrennial Reviews and for continuing work on capability assessments, requirements analysis, and program analysis.

Book Synopsis Analysis, Analysis Practices, and Implications for Modeling and Simulation by : Paul K. Davis

Download or read book Analysis, Analysis Practices, and Implications for Modeling and Simulation written by Paul K. Davis and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2007 with total page 89 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An examination of analysis and analysis practices for defense planning, the paper1s purpose is to delineate priorities for the way ahead, i.e., for investments and other actions to ensure that future models and simulations will serve the needs of decisionmakers. The analysis in question is accomplished for Quadrennial Reviews and for continuing work on capability assessments, requirements analysis, and program analysis.