Predicting Business Success

Predicting Business Success

Author: Matthew Betts

Publisher: Society for Human Resource Management

Published: 2018

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13: 9781586445379

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We know HR practices have a significant impact on an organization's bottom line, but too often HR leaders fail to demonstrate direct connections to the business metrics that matter most to executives. Predicting Business Success goes beyond the usual slicing and dicing of HR data to show HR professionals how to definitively connect the dots between people data and business outcomes with a straightforward approach for scaling analytics to all leaders and all levels, detailed strategies for collecting key data elements and making talent profiles predictive, and proven guidelines for harnessing data for selection and recruitment, onboarding, employee surveys, training needs, and much more.


Book Synopsis Predicting Business Success by : Matthew Betts

Download or read book Predicting Business Success written by Matthew Betts and published by Society for Human Resource Management. This book was released on 2018 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We know HR practices have a significant impact on an organization's bottom line, but too often HR leaders fail to demonstrate direct connections to the business metrics that matter most to executives. Predicting Business Success goes beyond the usual slicing and dicing of HR data to show HR professionals how to definitively connect the dots between people data and business outcomes with a straightforward approach for scaling analytics to all leaders and all levels, detailed strategies for collecting key data elements and making talent profiles predictive, and proven guidelines for harnessing data for selection and recruitment, onboarding, employee surveys, training needs, and much more.


Predicting Success

Predicting Success

Author: David Lahey

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

Published: 2014-09-22

Total Pages: 192

ISBN-13: 1118985990

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Make the right hires every time, with an analytical approach to talent Predicting Success is a practical guide to finding the perfect member for your team. By applying the principles and tools of human analytics to the workplace, you'll avoid bad culture fits, mismatched skillsets, entitled workers, and other hiring missteps that drain the team of productivity and morale. This book provides guidance toward implementing tools like the Predictive Index®, behavior analytics, hiring assessments, and other practical resources to build your best team and achieve the best outcomes. Written by a human analytics specialist who applies these principles daily, this book is the manager's guide to aligning people with business strategy to find the exact person your team is missing. An avalanche of research describes an evolving business landscape that will soon be populated by workers in jobs that don't fit. This is bad news for both the workers and the companies, as bad hires affect outcomes on the individual and organizational level, and can potentially hinder progress long after the situation has been rectified. Predicting Success is a guide to avoiding that by integrating analytical tools into the hiring process from the start. Hire without the worry of mismatched expectations Apply practical analytics tools to the hiring process Build the right team and avoid disconnected or dissatisfied workers Stop seeing candidates as "chances," and start seeing them as opportunities Analytics has proved to be integral in the finance, tech, marketing, and banking industries, but when applied to talent acquisition, it can build the team that takes the company to the next level. If the future will be full of unhappy workers in underperforming companies, getting out from under that weight ahead of time would confer a major advantage. Predicting Success provides evidence-based strategies that help you find precisely the talent you need.


Book Synopsis Predicting Success by : David Lahey

Download or read book Predicting Success written by David Lahey and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2014-09-22 with total page 192 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Make the right hires every time, with an analytical approach to talent Predicting Success is a practical guide to finding the perfect member for your team. By applying the principles and tools of human analytics to the workplace, you'll avoid bad culture fits, mismatched skillsets, entitled workers, and other hiring missteps that drain the team of productivity and morale. This book provides guidance toward implementing tools like the Predictive Index®, behavior analytics, hiring assessments, and other practical resources to build your best team and achieve the best outcomes. Written by a human analytics specialist who applies these principles daily, this book is the manager's guide to aligning people with business strategy to find the exact person your team is missing. An avalanche of research describes an evolving business landscape that will soon be populated by workers in jobs that don't fit. This is bad news for both the workers and the companies, as bad hires affect outcomes on the individual and organizational level, and can potentially hinder progress long after the situation has been rectified. Predicting Success is a guide to avoiding that by integrating analytical tools into the hiring process from the start. Hire without the worry of mismatched expectations Apply practical analytics tools to the hiring process Build the right team and avoid disconnected or dissatisfied workers Stop seeing candidates as "chances," and start seeing them as opportunities Analytics has proved to be integral in the finance, tech, marketing, and banking industries, but when applied to talent acquisition, it can build the team that takes the company to the next level. If the future will be full of unhappy workers in underperforming companies, getting out from under that weight ahead of time would confer a major advantage. Predicting Success provides evidence-based strategies that help you find precisely the talent you need.


Why Startups Fail

Why Startups Fail

Author: Tom Eisenmann

Publisher: Currency

Published: 2021-03-30

Total Pages: 370

ISBN-13: 0593137027

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If you want your startup to succeed, you need to understand why startups fail. “Whether you’re a first-time founder or looking to bring innovation into a corporate environment, Why Startups Fail is essential reading.”—Eric Ries, founder and CEO, LTSE, and New York Times bestselling author of The Lean Startup and The Startup Way Why do startups fail? That question caught Harvard Business School professor Tom Eisenmann by surprise when he realized he couldn’t answer it. So he launched a multiyear research project to find out. In Why Startups Fail, Eisenmann reveals his findings: six distinct patterns that account for the vast majority of startup failures. • Bad Bedfellows. Startup success is thought to rest largely on the founder’s talents and instincts. But the wrong team, investors, or partners can sink a venture just as quickly. • False Starts. In following the oft-cited advice to “fail fast” and to “launch before you’re ready,” founders risk wasting time and capital on the wrong solutions. • False Promises. Success with early adopters can be misleading and give founders unwarranted confidence to expand. • Speed Traps. Despite the pressure to “get big fast,” hypergrowth can spell disaster for even the most promising ventures. • Help Wanted. Rapidly scaling startups need lots of capital and talent, but they can make mistakes that leave them suddenly in short supply of both. • Cascading Miracles. Silicon Valley exhorts entrepreneurs to dream big. But the bigger the vision, the more things that can go wrong. Drawing on fascinating stories of ventures that failed to fulfill their early promise—from a home-furnishings retailer to a concierge dog-walking service, from a dating app to the inventor of a sophisticated social robot, from a fashion brand to a startup deploying a vast network of charging stations for electric vehicles—Eisenmann offers frameworks for detecting when a venture is vulnerable to these patterns, along with a wealth of strategies and tactics for avoiding them. A must-read for founders at any stage of their entrepreneurial journey, Why Startups Fail is not merely a guide to preventing failure but also a roadmap charting the path to startup success.


Book Synopsis Why Startups Fail by : Tom Eisenmann

Download or read book Why Startups Fail written by Tom Eisenmann and published by Currency. This book was released on 2021-03-30 with total page 370 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: If you want your startup to succeed, you need to understand why startups fail. “Whether you’re a first-time founder or looking to bring innovation into a corporate environment, Why Startups Fail is essential reading.”—Eric Ries, founder and CEO, LTSE, and New York Times bestselling author of The Lean Startup and The Startup Way Why do startups fail? That question caught Harvard Business School professor Tom Eisenmann by surprise when he realized he couldn’t answer it. So he launched a multiyear research project to find out. In Why Startups Fail, Eisenmann reveals his findings: six distinct patterns that account for the vast majority of startup failures. • Bad Bedfellows. Startup success is thought to rest largely on the founder’s talents and instincts. But the wrong team, investors, or partners can sink a venture just as quickly. • False Starts. In following the oft-cited advice to “fail fast” and to “launch before you’re ready,” founders risk wasting time and capital on the wrong solutions. • False Promises. Success with early adopters can be misleading and give founders unwarranted confidence to expand. • Speed Traps. Despite the pressure to “get big fast,” hypergrowth can spell disaster for even the most promising ventures. • Help Wanted. Rapidly scaling startups need lots of capital and talent, but they can make mistakes that leave them suddenly in short supply of both. • Cascading Miracles. Silicon Valley exhorts entrepreneurs to dream big. But the bigger the vision, the more things that can go wrong. Drawing on fascinating stories of ventures that failed to fulfill their early promise—from a home-furnishings retailer to a concierge dog-walking service, from a dating app to the inventor of a sophisticated social robot, from a fashion brand to a startup deploying a vast network of charging stations for electric vehicles—Eisenmann offers frameworks for detecting when a venture is vulnerable to these patterns, along with a wealth of strategies and tactics for avoiding them. A must-read for founders at any stage of their entrepreneurial journey, Why Startups Fail is not merely a guide to preventing failure but also a roadmap charting the path to startup success.


Predicting Business Success

Predicting Business Success

Author: Matthew Betts

Publisher:

Published: 2018

Total Pages:

ISBN-13: 9781586445386

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Book Synopsis Predicting Business Success by : Matthew Betts

Download or read book Predicting Business Success written by Matthew Betts and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:


Predicting Success in Business

Predicting Success in Business

Author: Frank Jefferson Williams

Publisher:

Published: 1959

Total Pages: 248

ISBN-13:

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Book Synopsis Predicting Success in Business by : Frank Jefferson Williams

Download or read book Predicting Success in Business written by Frank Jefferson Williams and published by . This book was released on 1959 with total page 248 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:


Predicting Market Success

Predicting Market Success

Author: Robert Passikoff

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

Published: 2006-12-15

Total Pages: 256

ISBN-13: 0470088796

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Praise for Predicting Market Success "Predicting Market Success has come at the right time for major companies. The value of understanding the dimensions of your brand's unique appeal and strength of preference is indispensable for brand strategy today. This book is well worth your time." —Joseph T. Plummer, Chief Research OfficerThe Advertising Research Foundation "In the competitive world of branding, understanding what drives consumer loyalty is the cornerstone of a brand's continued success. Passikoff's market-driven insights on how to obtain, analyze, and utilize loyalty metrics will help you make strategic, brand-enhancing decisions." —Seth M. Siegel, Cochairman, The Beanstalk Group "Passikoff is the guy who can explain to me why people buy certain things from certain companies, even though other things by other companies seem just as good. With his great feel for pop culture and almost philosophical outlook, he understands what makes consumers tick-and stick." —Lenore Skenazy, syndicated columnist "Loyalty is a key component of the strength of a brand and brand equity, and Passikoff understands loyalty like few others. In this book, he captures the essence of loyalty and branding in a practical way-showing how loyalty drives profitability." —Erich Joachimsthaler, Chairman, Vivaldi Partners "If you want a business book that will make you feel justified, complimented, and comfortable, don't read this. If you want a book to challenge your beliefs about brand marketing right down to the core, you can't afford not to." —John Gaffney, Executive Editor, Peppers & Rogers Group


Book Synopsis Predicting Market Success by : Robert Passikoff

Download or read book Predicting Market Success written by Robert Passikoff and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2006-12-15 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Praise for Predicting Market Success "Predicting Market Success has come at the right time for major companies. The value of understanding the dimensions of your brand's unique appeal and strength of preference is indispensable for brand strategy today. This book is well worth your time." —Joseph T. Plummer, Chief Research OfficerThe Advertising Research Foundation "In the competitive world of branding, understanding what drives consumer loyalty is the cornerstone of a brand's continued success. Passikoff's market-driven insights on how to obtain, analyze, and utilize loyalty metrics will help you make strategic, brand-enhancing decisions." —Seth M. Siegel, Cochairman, The Beanstalk Group "Passikoff is the guy who can explain to me why people buy certain things from certain companies, even though other things by other companies seem just as good. With his great feel for pop culture and almost philosophical outlook, he understands what makes consumers tick-and stick." —Lenore Skenazy, syndicated columnist "Loyalty is a key component of the strength of a brand and brand equity, and Passikoff understands loyalty like few others. In this book, he captures the essence of loyalty and branding in a practical way-showing how loyalty drives profitability." —Erich Joachimsthaler, Chairman, Vivaldi Partners "If you want a business book that will make you feel justified, complimented, and comfortable, don't read this. If you want a book to challenge your beliefs about brand marketing right down to the core, you can't afford not to." —John Gaffney, Executive Editor, Peppers & Rogers Group


Super Founders

Super Founders

Author: Ali Tamaseb

Publisher: PublicAffairs

Published: 2021-05-18

Total Pages: 280

ISBN-13: 1541768418

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Super Founders uses a data-driven approach to understand what really differentiates billion-dollar startups from the rest—revealing that nearly everything we thought was true about them is false! Ali Tamaseb has spent thousands of hours manually amassing what may be the largest dataset ever collected on startups, comparing billion-dollar startups with those that failed to become one—30,000 data points on nearly every factor: number of competitors, market size, the founder’s age, his or her university’s ranking, quality of investors, fundraising time, and many, many more. And what he found looked far different than expected. Just to mention a few: Most unicorn founders had no industry experience; There's no disadvantage to being a solo founder or to being a non-technical CEO; Less than 15% went through any kind of accelerator program; Over half had strong competitors when starting--being first to market with an idea does not actually matter. You will also hear the stories of the early days of billion-dollar startups first-hand. The book includes exclusive interviews with the founders/investors of Zoom, Instacart, PayPal, Nest, Github, Flatiron Health, Kite Pharma, Facebook, Stripe, Airbnb, YouTube, LinkedIn, Lyft, DoorDash, Coinbase, and Square, venture capital investors like Elad Gil, Peter Thiel, Alfred Lin from Sequoia Capital and Keith Rabois of Founders Fund, as well as previously untold stories about the early days of ByteDance (TikTok), WhatsApp, Dropbox, Discord, DiDi, Flipkart, Instagram, Careem, Peloton, and SpaceX. Packed with counterintuitive insights and inside stories from people who have built massively successful companies, Super Founders is a paradigm-shifting and actionable guide for entrepreneurs, investors, and anyone interested in what makes a startup successful.


Book Synopsis Super Founders by : Ali Tamaseb

Download or read book Super Founders written by Ali Tamaseb and published by PublicAffairs. This book was released on 2021-05-18 with total page 280 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Super Founders uses a data-driven approach to understand what really differentiates billion-dollar startups from the rest—revealing that nearly everything we thought was true about them is false! Ali Tamaseb has spent thousands of hours manually amassing what may be the largest dataset ever collected on startups, comparing billion-dollar startups with those that failed to become one—30,000 data points on nearly every factor: number of competitors, market size, the founder’s age, his or her university’s ranking, quality of investors, fundraising time, and many, many more. And what he found looked far different than expected. Just to mention a few: Most unicorn founders had no industry experience; There's no disadvantage to being a solo founder or to being a non-technical CEO; Less than 15% went through any kind of accelerator program; Over half had strong competitors when starting--being first to market with an idea does not actually matter. You will also hear the stories of the early days of billion-dollar startups first-hand. The book includes exclusive interviews with the founders/investors of Zoom, Instacart, PayPal, Nest, Github, Flatiron Health, Kite Pharma, Facebook, Stripe, Airbnb, YouTube, LinkedIn, Lyft, DoorDash, Coinbase, and Square, venture capital investors like Elad Gil, Peter Thiel, Alfred Lin from Sequoia Capital and Keith Rabois of Founders Fund, as well as previously untold stories about the early days of ByteDance (TikTok), WhatsApp, Dropbox, Discord, DiDi, Flipkart, Instagram, Careem, Peloton, and SpaceX. Packed with counterintuitive insights and inside stories from people who have built massively successful companies, Super Founders is a paradigm-shifting and actionable guide for entrepreneurs, investors, and anyone interested in what makes a startup successful.


Predicting Success

Predicting Success

Author: David Lahey

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

Published: 2014-10-13

Total Pages: 192

ISBN-13: 1118985974

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Make the right hires every time, with an analytical approach to talent Predicting Success is a practical guide to finding the perfect member for your team. By applying the principles and tools of human analytics to the workplace, you'll avoid bad culture fits, mismatched skillsets, entitled workers, and other hiring missteps that drain the team of productivity and morale. This book provides guidance toward implementing tools like the Predictive Index®, behavior analytics, hiring assessments, and other practical resources to build your best team and achieve the best outcomes. Written by a human analytics specialist who applies these principles daily, this book is the manager's guide to aligning people with business strategy to find the exact person your team is missing. An avalanche of research describes an evolving business landscape that will soon be populated by workers in jobs that don't fit. This is bad news for both the workers and the companies, as bad hires affect outcomes on the individual and organizational level, and can potentially hinder progress long after the situation has been rectified. Predicting Success is a guide to avoiding that by integrating analytical tools into the hiring process from the start. Hire without the worry of mismatched expectations Apply practical analytics tools to the hiring process Build the right team and avoid disconnected or dissatisfied workers Stop seeing candidates as "chances," and start seeing them as opportunities Analytics has proved to be integral in the finance, tech, marketing, and banking industries, but when applied to talent acquisition, it can build the team that takes the company to the next level. If the future will be full of unhappy workers in underperforming companies, getting out from under that weight ahead of time would confer a major advantage. Predicting Success provides evidence-based strategies that help you find precisely the talent you need.


Book Synopsis Predicting Success by : David Lahey

Download or read book Predicting Success written by David Lahey and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2014-10-13 with total page 192 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Make the right hires every time, with an analytical approach to talent Predicting Success is a practical guide to finding the perfect member for your team. By applying the principles and tools of human analytics to the workplace, you'll avoid bad culture fits, mismatched skillsets, entitled workers, and other hiring missteps that drain the team of productivity and morale. This book provides guidance toward implementing tools like the Predictive Index®, behavior analytics, hiring assessments, and other practical resources to build your best team and achieve the best outcomes. Written by a human analytics specialist who applies these principles daily, this book is the manager's guide to aligning people with business strategy to find the exact person your team is missing. An avalanche of research describes an evolving business landscape that will soon be populated by workers in jobs that don't fit. This is bad news for both the workers and the companies, as bad hires affect outcomes on the individual and organizational level, and can potentially hinder progress long after the situation has been rectified. Predicting Success is a guide to avoiding that by integrating analytical tools into the hiring process from the start. Hire without the worry of mismatched expectations Apply practical analytics tools to the hiring process Build the right team and avoid disconnected or dissatisfied workers Stop seeing candidates as "chances," and start seeing them as opportunities Analytics has proved to be integral in the finance, tech, marketing, and banking industries, but when applied to talent acquisition, it can build the team that takes the company to the next level. If the future will be full of unhappy workers in underperforming companies, getting out from under that weight ahead of time would confer a major advantage. Predicting Success provides evidence-based strategies that help you find precisely the talent you need.


New Trends in Banking Management

New Trends in Banking Management

Author: Constantin Zopounidis

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2012-12-06

Total Pages: 309

ISBN-13: 3642574785

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During the last decades the globalization, the intensified competition and the rapid changes in the socio-economic and technological environment had a major impact on the global economic, financial and business environments. Within this environment, it is clear that banking institutions worldwide face new challenges and increasing risks, as well as increasing business potentials. The recent experience shows that achieving a sustainable development of the banking system is not only of interest to the banking institutions themselves, but it is also directly related to the development of the whole business and economic environment, both at regional and international level. The variety of new banking products that is constantly being developed to accommodate the increased customer needs (firms, organizations, individuals, etc.) provides a clear indication of the changes that the banking industry has undergone during the last two decades. The establishment of new products of innovative processes and instruments for their requires the implementation efficient management. The implementation of such processes and instruments is closely related to a variety of disciplines, advanced quantitative analysis for risk management, information technology, quality management, etc. The implementation ofthese approaches in banking management is in accordance with the finding that empirical procedures are no longer adequate to address the increasing complexity of the banking industry.


Book Synopsis New Trends in Banking Management by : Constantin Zopounidis

Download or read book New Trends in Banking Management written by Constantin Zopounidis and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 309 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: During the last decades the globalization, the intensified competition and the rapid changes in the socio-economic and technological environment had a major impact on the global economic, financial and business environments. Within this environment, it is clear that banking institutions worldwide face new challenges and increasing risks, as well as increasing business potentials. The recent experience shows that achieving a sustainable development of the banking system is not only of interest to the banking institutions themselves, but it is also directly related to the development of the whole business and economic environment, both at regional and international level. The variety of new banking products that is constantly being developed to accommodate the increased customer needs (firms, organizations, individuals, etc.) provides a clear indication of the changes that the banking industry has undergone during the last two decades. The establishment of new products of innovative processes and instruments for their requires the implementation efficient management. The implementation of such processes and instruments is closely related to a variety of disciplines, advanced quantitative analysis for risk management, information technology, quality management, etc. The implementation ofthese approaches in banking management is in accordance with the finding that empirical procedures are no longer adequate to address the increasing complexity of the banking industry.


Superforecasting

Superforecasting

Author: Philip E. Tetlock

Publisher: Crown

Published: 2015-09-29

Total Pages: 352

ISBN-13: 080413670X

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NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.


Book Synopsis Superforecasting by : Philip E. Tetlock

Download or read book Superforecasting written by Philip E. Tetlock and published by Crown. This book was released on 2015-09-29 with total page 352 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.