Quantifying Counterfactual Military History

Quantifying Counterfactual Military History

Author: Brennen Fagan

Publisher: CRC Press

Published: 2023-09-27

Total Pages: 239

ISBN-13: 0429948808

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Demonstrates how modern statistical techniques can measure the impact of counterfactual decisions. Examines the importance of counterfactual reasoning for both modern scholars and historical actors. Combines historical narrative, mathematical precision and data to create a straightforward presentation of both factual and counterfactual military history. Provides an original contribution to the debate over the validity and rigour of works of counterfactual history Written in a manner accessible to readers who have no formal training in History or Statistics.


Book Synopsis Quantifying Counterfactual Military History by : Brennen Fagan

Download or read book Quantifying Counterfactual Military History written by Brennen Fagan and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2023-09-27 with total page 239 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Demonstrates how modern statistical techniques can measure the impact of counterfactual decisions. Examines the importance of counterfactual reasoning for both modern scholars and historical actors. Combines historical narrative, mathematical precision and data to create a straightforward presentation of both factual and counterfactual military history. Provides an original contribution to the debate over the validity and rigour of works of counterfactual history Written in a manner accessible to readers who have no formal training in History or Statistics.

Quantifying Counterfactual Military History

Quantifying Counterfactual Military History

Author: Niall J MacKay

Publisher:

Published: 2023-11

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13: 9780429488405

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"Forces shaping human history are complex, but the course of history is undeniably changed on many occasions by conscious acts. These may be premeditated or responsive, calmly calculated or performed under great pressure. They may also be considered to be successful or catastrophic, but how are historians to make such judgments and appeal to evidence in support of their conclusions? Further, and crucially, how exactly are we to distinguish probable unrealized alternatives from improbable ones? This book describes some of the modern statistical techniques that can begin to answer this question, as well as some of the difficulties in doing so. Using simple, well-quantified cases drawn from military history, we claim that statistics can now help us to navigate the near-truths, the envelope around the events with which any meaningful historical analysis must deal, and to quantify the basis of such analysis. Quantifying Counterfactual Military History is intended for a general audience who are interested in learning more about statistical methods both in military history and for wider applications"--


Book Synopsis Quantifying Counterfactual Military History by : Niall J MacKay

Download or read book Quantifying Counterfactual Military History written by Niall J MacKay and published by . This book was released on 2023-11 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Forces shaping human history are complex, but the course of history is undeniably changed on many occasions by conscious acts. These may be premeditated or responsive, calmly calculated or performed under great pressure. They may also be considered to be successful or catastrophic, but how are historians to make such judgments and appeal to evidence in support of their conclusions? Further, and crucially, how exactly are we to distinguish probable unrealized alternatives from improbable ones? This book describes some of the modern statistical techniques that can begin to answer this question, as well as some of the difficulties in doing so. Using simple, well-quantified cases drawn from military history, we claim that statistics can now help us to navigate the near-truths, the envelope around the events with which any meaningful historical analysis must deal, and to quantify the basis of such analysis. Quantifying Counterfactual Military History is intended for a general audience who are interested in learning more about statistical methods both in military history and for wider applications"--

Quantifying Counterfactual Military History

Quantifying Counterfactual Military History

Author: Brennen Fagan

Publisher: CRC Press

Published: 2023

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13: 9780429948787

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"Forces shaping human history are complex, but the course of history is undeniably changed on many occasions by conscious acts. These may be premeditated or responsive, calmly calculated or performed under great pressure. They may also be considered to be successful or catastrophic, but how are historians to make such judgments and appeal to evidence in support of their conclusions? Further, and crucially, how exactly are we to distinguish probable unrealized alternatives from improbable ones? This book describes some of the modern statistical techniques that can begin to answer this question, as well as some of the difficulties in doing so. Using simple, well-quantified cases drawn from military history, we claim that statistics can now help us to navigate the near-truths, the envelope around the events with which any meaningful historical analysis must deal, and to quantify the basis of such analysis. Quantifying Counterfactual Military History is intended for a general audience who are interested in learning more about statistical methods both in military history and for wider applications"--


Book Synopsis Quantifying Counterfactual Military History by : Brennen Fagan

Download or read book Quantifying Counterfactual Military History written by Brennen Fagan and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2023 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Forces shaping human history are complex, but the course of history is undeniably changed on many occasions by conscious acts. These may be premeditated or responsive, calmly calculated or performed under great pressure. They may also be considered to be successful or catastrophic, but how are historians to make such judgments and appeal to evidence in support of their conclusions? Further, and crucially, how exactly are we to distinguish probable unrealized alternatives from improbable ones? This book describes some of the modern statistical techniques that can begin to answer this question, as well as some of the difficulties in doing so. Using simple, well-quantified cases drawn from military history, we claim that statistics can now help us to navigate the near-truths, the envelope around the events with which any meaningful historical analysis must deal, and to quantify the basis of such analysis. Quantifying Counterfactual Military History is intended for a general audience who are interested in learning more about statistical methods both in military history and for wider applications"--

What If?

What If?

Author: Robert Cowley

Publisher:

Published: 1999

Total Pages: 395

ISBN-13: 9780425186138

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Book Synopsis What If? by : Robert Cowley

Download or read book What If? written by Robert Cowley and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 395 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Some Suggested Source Readings for New Dimensions in Military History

Some Suggested Source Readings for New Dimensions in Military History

Author: US Army Military History Institute

Publisher:

Published: 1977

Total Pages: 112

ISBN-13:

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Book Synopsis Some Suggested Source Readings for New Dimensions in Military History by : US Army Military History Institute

Download or read book Some Suggested Source Readings for New Dimensions in Military History written by US Army Military History Institute and published by . This book was released on 1977 with total page 112 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Why the Axis Lost

Why the Axis Lost

Author: John Arquilla

Publisher: McFarland

Published: 2020-02-28

Total Pages: 225

ISBN-13: 1476674523

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The factors leading to the defeat of the Axis Powers in World War II have been debated for decades. One prevalent view is that overwhelming Allied superiority in materials and manpower doomed the Axis. Another holds that key strategic and tactical blunders lost the war--from Hitler halting his panzers outside Dunkirk, allowing more than 300,000 trapped Allied soldiers to escape, to Admiral Yamamoto falling into the trap set by the U.S. Navy at Midway. Providing a fresh perspective on the war, this study challenges both views and offers an alternative explanation: the Germans, Japanese and Italians made poor design choices in ships, planes, tanks and information security--before and during the war--that forced them to fight with weapons and systems that were too soon outmatched by the Allies. The unprecedented arms race of World War II posed a fundamental "design challenge" the Axis powers sometimes met but never mastered.


Book Synopsis Why the Axis Lost by : John Arquilla

Download or read book Why the Axis Lost written by John Arquilla and published by McFarland. This book was released on 2020-02-28 with total page 225 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The factors leading to the defeat of the Axis Powers in World War II have been debated for decades. One prevalent view is that overwhelming Allied superiority in materials and manpower doomed the Axis. Another holds that key strategic and tactical blunders lost the war--from Hitler halting his panzers outside Dunkirk, allowing more than 300,000 trapped Allied soldiers to escape, to Admiral Yamamoto falling into the trap set by the U.S. Navy at Midway. Providing a fresh perspective on the war, this study challenges both views and offers an alternative explanation: the Germans, Japanese and Italians made poor design choices in ships, planes, tanks and information security--before and during the war--that forced them to fight with weapons and systems that were too soon outmatched by the Allies. The unprecedented arms race of World War II posed a fundamental "design challenge" the Axis powers sometimes met but never mastered.

Statistical Issues in Drug Development

Statistical Issues in Drug Development

Author: Stephen S. Senn

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

Published: 2008-02-28

Total Pages: 523

ISBN-13: 9780470723579

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Drug development is the process of finding and producingtherapeutically useful pharmaceuticals, turning them into safe andeffective medicine, and producing reliable information regardingthe appropriate dosage and dosing intervals. With regulatoryauthorities demanding increasingly higher standards in suchdevelopments, statistics has become an intrinsic and criticalelement in the design and conduct of drug development programmes. Statistical Issues in Drug Development presents anessential and thought provoking guide to the statistical issues andcontroversies involved in drug development. This highly readable second edition has been updated toinclude: Comprehensive coverage of the design and interpretation ofclinical trials. Expanded sections on missing data, equivalence, meta-analysisand dose finding. An examination of both Bayesian and frequentist methods. A new chapter on pharmacogenomics and expanded coverage ofpharmaco-epidemiology and pharmaco-economics. Coverage of the ICH guidelines, in particular ICH E9,Statistical Principles for Clinical Trials. It is hoped that the book will stimulate dialogue betweenstatisticians and life scientists working within the pharmaceuticalindustry. The accessible and wide-ranging coverage make itessential reading for both statisticians and non-statisticiansworking in the pharmaceutical industry, regulatory bodies andmedical research institutes. There is also much to benefitundergraduate and postgraduate students whose courses include amedical statistics component.


Book Synopsis Statistical Issues in Drug Development by : Stephen S. Senn

Download or read book Statistical Issues in Drug Development written by Stephen S. Senn and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2008-02-28 with total page 523 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Drug development is the process of finding and producingtherapeutically useful pharmaceuticals, turning them into safe andeffective medicine, and producing reliable information regardingthe appropriate dosage and dosing intervals. With regulatoryauthorities demanding increasingly higher standards in suchdevelopments, statistics has become an intrinsic and criticalelement in the design and conduct of drug development programmes. Statistical Issues in Drug Development presents anessential and thought provoking guide to the statistical issues andcontroversies involved in drug development. This highly readable second edition has been updated toinclude: Comprehensive coverage of the design and interpretation ofclinical trials. Expanded sections on missing data, equivalence, meta-analysisand dose finding. An examination of both Bayesian and frequentist methods. A new chapter on pharmacogenomics and expanded coverage ofpharmaco-epidemiology and pharmaco-economics. Coverage of the ICH guidelines, in particular ICH E9,Statistical Principles for Clinical Trials. It is hoped that the book will stimulate dialogue betweenstatisticians and life scientists working within the pharmaceuticalindustry. The accessible and wide-ranging coverage make itessential reading for both statisticians and non-statisticiansworking in the pharmaceutical industry, regulatory bodies andmedical research institutes. There is also much to benefitundergraduate and postgraduate students whose courses include amedical statistics component.

Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics

Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics

Author: Philip E. Tetlock

Publisher: Princeton University Press

Published: 2020-06-30

Total Pages: 355

ISBN-13: 0691215073

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Political scientists often ask themselves what might have been if history had unfolded differently: if Stalin had been ousted as General Party Secretary or if the United States had not dropped the bomb on Japan. Although scholars sometimes scoff at applying hypothetical reasoning to world politics, the contributors to this volume--including James Fearon, Richard Lebow, Margaret Levi, Bruce Russett, and Barry Weingast--find such counterfactual conjectures not only useful, but necessary for drawing causal inferences from historical data. Given the importance of counterfactuals, it is perhaps surprising that we lack standards for evaluating them. To fill this gap, Philip Tetlock and Aaron Belkin propose a set of criteria for distinguishing plausible from implausible counterfactual conjectures across a wide range of applications. The contributors to this volume make use of these and other criteria to evaluate counterfactuals that emerge in diverse methodological contexts including comparative case studies, game theory, and statistical analysis. Taken together, these essays go a long way toward establishing a more nuanced and rigorous framework for assessing counterfactual arguments about world politics in particular and about the social sciences more broadly.


Book Synopsis Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics by : Philip E. Tetlock

Download or read book Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics written by Philip E. Tetlock and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2020-06-30 with total page 355 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Political scientists often ask themselves what might have been if history had unfolded differently: if Stalin had been ousted as General Party Secretary or if the United States had not dropped the bomb on Japan. Although scholars sometimes scoff at applying hypothetical reasoning to world politics, the contributors to this volume--including James Fearon, Richard Lebow, Margaret Levi, Bruce Russett, and Barry Weingast--find such counterfactual conjectures not only useful, but necessary for drawing causal inferences from historical data. Given the importance of counterfactuals, it is perhaps surprising that we lack standards for evaluating them. To fill this gap, Philip Tetlock and Aaron Belkin propose a set of criteria for distinguishing plausible from implausible counterfactual conjectures across a wide range of applications. The contributors to this volume make use of these and other criteria to evaluate counterfactuals that emerge in diverse methodological contexts including comparative case studies, game theory, and statistical analysis. Taken together, these essays go a long way toward establishing a more nuanced and rigorous framework for assessing counterfactual arguments about world politics in particular and about the social sciences more broadly.

Base Nation

Base Nation

Author: David Vine

Publisher: Macmillan

Published: 2015-08-25

Total Pages: 433

ISBN-13: 1627791698

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American military bases encircle the globe; from Italy to the Indian Ocean, from Japan to Honduras. The far-reaching story of the perils of the U. S. military bases and what these bases say about America today.


Book Synopsis Base Nation by : David Vine

Download or read book Base Nation written by David Vine and published by Macmillan. This book was released on 2015-08-25 with total page 433 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: American military bases encircle the globe; from Italy to the Indian Ocean, from Japan to Honduras. The far-reaching story of the perils of the U. S. military bases and what these bases say about America today.

Codebreakers

Codebreakers

Author: Francis Harry Hinsley

Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA

Published: 2001

Total Pages: 368

ISBN-13: 9780192801326

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The story of Bletchley Park, the successful intelligence operation that cracked Germany's Enigma Code. Photos.


Book Synopsis Codebreakers by : Francis Harry Hinsley

Download or read book Codebreakers written by Francis Harry Hinsley and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 2001 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The story of Bletchley Park, the successful intelligence operation that cracked Germany's Enigma Code. Photos.