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Real-time Forecasts of Economic Activity for Latin American Economies

Author: Mr.Philip Liu

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2011-04-01

Total Pages: 27

ISBN-13: 1455254290

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Macroeconomic policy decisions in real-time are based the assessment of current and future economic conditions. These assessments are made difficult by the presence of incomplete and noisy data. The problem is more acute for emerging market economies, where most economic data are released infrequently with a (sometimes substantial) lag. This paper evaluates "nowcasts" and forecasts of real GDP growth using five alternative models for ten Latin American countries. The results indicate that the flow of monthly data helps to improve forecast accuracy, and the dynamic factor model consistently produces more accurate nowcasts and forecasts relative to other model specifications, across most of the countries we consider.

Book Synopsis Real-time Forecasts of Economic Activity for Latin American Economies by : Mr.Philip Liu

Download or read book Real-time Forecasts of Economic Activity for Latin American Economies written by Mr.Philip Liu and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-04-01 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Macroeconomic policy decisions in real-time are based the assessment of current and future economic conditions. These assessments are made difficult by the presence of incomplete and noisy data. The problem is more acute for emerging market economies, where most economic data are released infrequently with a (sometimes substantial) lag. This paper evaluates "nowcasts" and forecasts of real GDP growth using five alternative models for ten Latin American countries. The results indicate that the flow of monthly data helps to improve forecast accuracy, and the dynamic factor model consistently produces more accurate nowcasts and forecasts relative to other model specifications, across most of the countries we consider.

Economic Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean

Author: Norman Loayza

Publisher: World Bank Publications

Published: 2005-01-01

Total Pages: 169

ISBN-13: 0821360914

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Several countries in Latin America and the Caribbean are suffering severe economic downturns and the success of market-oriented reforms is being called into question. This report seeks to contribute to the debate by examining the nature of economic growth in the region. The aim is threefold: to describe the basic characteristics of growth; explain differences across countries and to forecast changes over the next decade.

Book Synopsis Economic Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean by : Norman Loayza

Download or read book Economic Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean written by Norman Loayza and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2005-01-01 with total page 169 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Several countries in Latin America and the Caribbean are suffering severe economic downturns and the success of market-oriented reforms is being called into question. This report seeks to contribute to the debate by examining the nature of economic growth in the region. The aim is threefold: to describe the basic characteristics of growth; explain differences across countries and to forecast changes over the next decade.

The Economy in the Time of Covid-19

Author: World Bank

Publisher: World Bank Publications

Published: 2020-04-12

Total Pages: 64

ISBN-13: 1464815704

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After a period of rapid economic growth associated with high commodity prices, the region had entered a phase of lackluster performance. Recent developments, including a new oil price shock, and the outbreak of the Covid-19 epidemic will push the region into recession. Many countries are struggling to contain the spread of the Covid-19 epidemic while avoiding a dramatic decline in economic activity. The report analyzes how to think about this tradeoff. It estimates the potential health costs, assesses the effectiveness of diverse containment strategies, and discusses how large the economic cost could be. The current crisis is unprecedented because it combines a fall in global demand, tighter financial conditions and a major supply shock. The response needs to consider how to socialize the losses, how to prevent a collapse of the financial sector, how to protect jobs and livelihoods, and how to manage and divest the assets that will inevitably end up in the hands of the state.

Book Synopsis The Economy in the Time of Covid-19 by : World Bank

Download or read book The Economy in the Time of Covid-19 written by World Bank and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2020-04-12 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: After a period of rapid economic growth associated with high commodity prices, the region had entered a phase of lackluster performance. Recent developments, including a new oil price shock, and the outbreak of the Covid-19 epidemic will push the region into recession. Many countries are struggling to contain the spread of the Covid-19 epidemic while avoiding a dramatic decline in economic activity. The report analyzes how to think about this tradeoff. It estimates the potential health costs, assesses the effectiveness of diverse containment strategies, and discusses how large the economic cost could be. The current crisis is unprecedented because it combines a fall in global demand, tighter financial conditions and a major supply shock. The response needs to consider how to socialize the losses, how to prevent a collapse of the financial sector, how to protect jobs and livelihoods, and how to manage and divest the assets that will inevitably end up in the hands of the state.

Semiannual Report of the Latin America And Caribbean Region Fall, 2020

Author: World Bank

Publisher: World Bank Publications

Published: 2020-10-09

Total Pages: 76

ISBN-13: 1464816506

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Latin America and the Caribbean was hit hard by the Covid-19 pandemic, which arrived on the back of years of disappointing economic growth and limited social progress, and after a wave of social unrest. This report reviews the impacts of the crisis as well as the policy responses by countries, which often involved sizeable social transfers. It also presents growth forecasts, and quarterly growth estimates based on satellite imagery. With countries experiencing a diverse mix of health costs and economic costs, the report analyzes how the effectiveness of containment policies, and their impact on economic activity, differ between richer and poorer countries. It also assesses the cost of staying healthy in normal times, showing how it is affected by the structure of the domestic pharmaceutical sector and by the effectiveness of public procurement of medicines. As the region may have to live with the virus for a while, four policy directions are proposed for discussion.

Book Synopsis Semiannual Report of the Latin America And Caribbean Region Fall, 2020 by : World Bank

Download or read book Semiannual Report of the Latin America And Caribbean Region Fall, 2020 written by World Bank and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2020-10-09 with total page 76 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Latin America and the Caribbean was hit hard by the Covid-19 pandemic, which arrived on the back of years of disappointing economic growth and limited social progress, and after a wave of social unrest. This report reviews the impacts of the crisis as well as the policy responses by countries, which often involved sizeable social transfers. It also presents growth forecasts, and quarterly growth estimates based on satellite imagery. With countries experiencing a diverse mix of health costs and economic costs, the report analyzes how the effectiveness of containment policies, and their impact on economic activity, differ between richer and poorer countries. It also assesses the cost of staying healthy in normal times, showing how it is affected by the structure of the domestic pharmaceutical sector and by the effectiveness of public procurement of medicines. As the region may have to live with the virus for a while, four policy directions are proposed for discussion.

Latin America

Author: Ms.Dora M. Iakova

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2014-12-23

Total Pages: 270

ISBN-13: 1484301544

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Over the past fifteen years countries in Latin America made tremendous progress in strengthening their economies and improving living standards. Although output fell temporarily during the global financial crisis, most economies staged a rapid recovery. However, economic activity across the region has been cooling off and the region is facing a more challenging period ahead. This book argues that Latin America can rise to the challenge, and policymakers in the region are already implementing reforms in education, energy, and other sectors. More is needed, and more is possible, in Latin America’s quest to continue to improve living standards.

Book Synopsis Latin America by : Ms.Dora M. Iakova

Download or read book Latin America written by Ms.Dora M. Iakova and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-12-23 with total page 270 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the past fifteen years countries in Latin America made tremendous progress in strengthening their economies and improving living standards. Although output fell temporarily during the global financial crisis, most economies staged a rapid recovery. However, economic activity across the region has been cooling off and the region is facing a more challenging period ahead. This book argues that Latin America can rise to the challenge, and policymakers in the region are already implementing reforms in education, energy, and other sectors. More is needed, and more is possible, in Latin America’s quest to continue to improve living standards.

The Use of High-frequency Indicators in Short-term Forecasting Models: The Case of Latin American and Caribbean Countries

Author: Sandra Manuelito

Publisher:

Published:

Total Pages:

ISBN-13:

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The importance of sound and accurate early estimates of economic activity is of utmost importance to national economic authorities at the time of the decision-making process, and to the various agents involved in the economic analysis and follow up of the short-term economic prospects. In this context, the availability of short-term forecasts for quarterly GDP growth rates becomes highly relevant. In Latin America and the Caribbean an increasing amount of countries is producing high frequency economic data, and there has been an increasing interest by national authorities to use this data to improve economic analyses and short-term economic forecasts. This article discusses the use of the now casting methodology applied to Latin American and Caribbean countries with the objective of generating more accurate quarterly GDP growth forecasts. The results show that, for the short-term, this methodology produces accurate and reliable estimates although results at the country level depend very much on the amount and quality of the data available, as well as on its timeliness.

Book Synopsis The Use of High-frequency Indicators in Short-term Forecasting Models: The Case of Latin American and Caribbean Countries by : Sandra Manuelito

Download or read book The Use of High-frequency Indicators in Short-term Forecasting Models: The Case of Latin American and Caribbean Countries written by Sandra Manuelito and published by . This book was released on with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The importance of sound and accurate early estimates of economic activity is of utmost importance to national economic authorities at the time of the decision-making process, and to the various agents involved in the economic analysis and follow up of the short-term economic prospects. In this context, the availability of short-term forecasts for quarterly GDP growth rates becomes highly relevant. In Latin America and the Caribbean an increasing amount of countries is producing high frequency economic data, and there has been an increasing interest by national authorities to use this data to improve economic analyses and short-term economic forecasts. This article discusses the use of the now casting methodology applied to Latin American and Caribbean countries with the objective of generating more accurate quarterly GDP growth forecasts. The results show that, for the short-term, this methodology produces accurate and reliable estimates although results at the country level depend very much on the amount and quality of the data available, as well as on its timeliness.

El Salvador

Author: International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2018-06-07

Total Pages: 79

ISBN-13: 1484359798

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This Selected Issues paper proposes a simple nowcast model for an early assessment of the Salvadorian economy. The exercise is based on a bridge model, which is one of the many tools available for nowcasting. For El Salvador, the bridge model exploits information for the period 2005–17 from a large set of variables that are published earlier and at higher frequency than the variable of interest, in this case quarterly GDP. The estimated GDP growth rate in the 4th quarter of 2017 is 2.4 percent year-over-year, leading to an average GDP growth rate of 2.3 percent in 2017. This is in line with the GDP growth implied by the official statistics released two months later, in March 23, 2018.

Book Synopsis El Salvador by : International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Download or read book El Salvador written by International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-06-07 with total page 79 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Selected Issues paper proposes a simple nowcast model for an early assessment of the Salvadorian economy. The exercise is based on a bridge model, which is one of the many tools available for nowcasting. For El Salvador, the bridge model exploits information for the period 2005–17 from a large set of variables that are published earlier and at higher frequency than the variable of interest, in this case quarterly GDP. The estimated GDP growth rate in the 4th quarter of 2017 is 2.4 percent year-over-year, leading to an average GDP growth rate of 2.3 percent in 2017. This is in line with the GDP growth implied by the official statistics released two months later, in March 23, 2018.

Issues in General Economic Research and Application: 2013 Edition

Author:

Publisher: ScholarlyEditions

Published: 2013-05-01

Total Pages: 1193

ISBN-13: 1490109501

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Issues in General Economic Research and Application: 2013 Edition is a ScholarlyEditions™ book that delivers timely, authoritative, and comprehensive information about Theoretical Economics. The editors have built Issues in General Economic Research and Application: 2013 Edition on the vast information databases of ScholarlyNews.™ You can expect the information about Theoretical Economics in this book to be deeper than what you can access anywhere else, as well as consistently reliable, authoritative, informed, and relevant. The content of Issues in General Economic Research and Application: 2013 Edition has been produced by the world’s leading scientists, engineers, analysts, research institutions, and companies. All of the content is from peer-reviewed sources, and all of it is written, assembled, and edited by the editors at ScholarlyEditions™ and available exclusively from us. You now have a source you can cite with authority, confidence, and credibility. More information is available at http://www.ScholarlyEditions.com/.

Book Synopsis Issues in General Economic Research and Application: 2013 Edition by :

Download or read book Issues in General Economic Research and Application: 2013 Edition written by and published by ScholarlyEditions. This book was released on 2013-05-01 with total page 1193 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Issues in General Economic Research and Application: 2013 Edition is a ScholarlyEditions™ book that delivers timely, authoritative, and comprehensive information about Theoretical Economics. The editors have built Issues in General Economic Research and Application: 2013 Edition on the vast information databases of ScholarlyNews.™ You can expect the information about Theoretical Economics in this book to be deeper than what you can access anywhere else, as well as consistently reliable, authoritative, informed, and relevant. The content of Issues in General Economic Research and Application: 2013 Edition has been produced by the world’s leading scientists, engineers, analysts, research institutions, and companies. All of the content is from peer-reviewed sources, and all of it is written, assembled, and edited by the editors at ScholarlyEditions™ and available exclusively from us. You now have a source you can cite with authority, confidence, and credibility. More information is available at http://www.ScholarlyEditions.com/.

Modeling Economic Growth in Contemporary India

Author: Bruno S. Sergi

Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing

Published: 2024-07-22

Total Pages: 353

ISBN-13: 1803827513

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This volume focuses on core topics of economic disruption caused by the Covid-19 pandemic: changes in socio-cultural relationships, behavioural patterns and psychological attitudes governing human interaction, and government policies to stabilize the Indian economy and contribute to sustainable growth.

Book Synopsis Modeling Economic Growth in Contemporary India by : Bruno S. Sergi

Download or read book Modeling Economic Growth in Contemporary India written by Bruno S. Sergi and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2024-07-22 with total page 353 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume focuses on core topics of economic disruption caused by the Covid-19 pandemic: changes in socio-cultural relationships, behavioural patterns and psychological attitudes governing human interaction, and government policies to stabilize the Indian economy and contribute to sustainable growth.

The Economies of Latin America

Author: César Yáñez

Publisher: Routledge

Published: 2015-10-06

Total Pages: 257

ISBN-13: 1317320891

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The economic backwardness of Latin America and the Caribbean has long been discussed, but seldom been the subject of such a wide-ranging quantitative study. The twelve essays in this collection present a twenty-first-century analysis of a long-term issue, providing extensive geographical coverage and allowing reinterpretations of the past.

Book Synopsis The Economies of Latin America by : César Yáñez

Download or read book The Economies of Latin America written by César Yáñez and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2015-10-06 with total page 257 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The economic backwardness of Latin America and the Caribbean has long been discussed, but seldom been the subject of such a wide-ranging quantitative study. The twelve essays in this collection present a twenty-first-century analysis of a long-term issue, providing extensive geographical coverage and allowing reinterpretations of the past.