Stochastic Epidemic Models and Their Statistical Analysis

Stochastic Epidemic Models and Their Statistical Analysis

Author: Hakan Andersson

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2012-12-06

Total Pages: 140

ISBN-13: 1461211581

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The present lecture notes describe stochastic epidemic models and methods for their statistical analysis. Our aim is to present ideas for such models, and methods for their analysis; along the way we make practical use of several probabilistic and statistical techniques. This will be done without focusing on any specific disease, and instead rigorously analyzing rather simple models. The reader of these lecture notes could thus have a two-fold purpose in mind: to learn about epidemic models and their statistical analysis, and/or to learn and apply techniques in probability and statistics. The lecture notes require an early graduate level knowledge of probability and They introduce several techniques which might be new to students, but our statistics. intention is to present these keeping the technical level at a minlmum. Techniques that are explained and applied in the lecture notes are, for example: coupling, diffusion approximation, random graphs, likelihood theory for counting processes, martingales, the EM-algorithm and MCMC methods. The aim is to introduce and apply these techniques, thus hopefully motivating their further theoretical treatment. A few sections, mainly in Chapter 5, assume some knowledge of weak convergence; we hope that readers not familiar with this theory can understand the these parts at a heuristic level. The text is divided into two distinct but related parts: modelling and estimation.


Book Synopsis Stochastic Epidemic Models and Their Statistical Analysis by : Hakan Andersson

Download or read book Stochastic Epidemic Models and Their Statistical Analysis written by Hakan Andersson and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 140 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The present lecture notes describe stochastic epidemic models and methods for their statistical analysis. Our aim is to present ideas for such models, and methods for their analysis; along the way we make practical use of several probabilistic and statistical techniques. This will be done without focusing on any specific disease, and instead rigorously analyzing rather simple models. The reader of these lecture notes could thus have a two-fold purpose in mind: to learn about epidemic models and their statistical analysis, and/or to learn and apply techniques in probability and statistics. The lecture notes require an early graduate level knowledge of probability and They introduce several techniques which might be new to students, but our statistics. intention is to present these keeping the technical level at a minlmum. Techniques that are explained and applied in the lecture notes are, for example: coupling, diffusion approximation, random graphs, likelihood theory for counting processes, martingales, the EM-algorithm and MCMC methods. The aim is to introduce and apply these techniques, thus hopefully motivating their further theoretical treatment. A few sections, mainly in Chapter 5, assume some knowledge of weak convergence; we hope that readers not familiar with this theory can understand the these parts at a heuristic level. The text is divided into two distinct but related parts: modelling and estimation.

Stochastic Epidemic Models with Inference

Stochastic Epidemic Models with Inference

Author: Tom Britton

Publisher: Springer Nature

Published: 2019-11-30

Total Pages: 474

ISBN-13: 3030309002

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Focussing on stochastic models for the spread of infectious diseases in a human population, this book is the outcome of a two-week ICPAM/CIMPA school on "Stochastic models of epidemics" which took place in Ziguinchor, Senegal, December 5–16, 2015. The text is divided into four parts, each based on one of the courses given at the school: homogeneous models (Tom Britton and Etienne Pardoux), two-level mixing models (David Sirl and Frank Ball), epidemics on graphs (Viet Chi Tran), and statistics for epidemic models (Catherine Larédo). The CIMPA school was aimed at PhD students and Post Docs in the mathematical sciences. Parts (or all) of this book can be used as the basis for traditional or individual reading courses on the topic. For this reason, examples and exercises (some with solutions) are provided throughout.


Book Synopsis Stochastic Epidemic Models with Inference by : Tom Britton

Download or read book Stochastic Epidemic Models with Inference written by Tom Britton and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2019-11-30 with total page 474 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Focussing on stochastic models for the spread of infectious diseases in a human population, this book is the outcome of a two-week ICPAM/CIMPA school on "Stochastic models of epidemics" which took place in Ziguinchor, Senegal, December 5–16, 2015. The text is divided into four parts, each based on one of the courses given at the school: homogeneous models (Tom Britton and Etienne Pardoux), two-level mixing models (David Sirl and Frank Ball), epidemics on graphs (Viet Chi Tran), and statistics for epidemic models (Catherine Larédo). The CIMPA school was aimed at PhD students and Post Docs in the mathematical sciences. Parts (or all) of this book can be used as the basis for traditional or individual reading courses on the topic. For this reason, examples and exercises (some with solutions) are provided throughout.

Epidemic Models

Epidemic Models

Author: Denis Mollison

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 1995-07-13

Total Pages: 458

ISBN-13: 9780521475365

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Surveys the state of epidemic modelling, resulting from the NATO Advanced Workshop at the Newton Institute in 1993.


Book Synopsis Epidemic Models by : Denis Mollison

Download or read book Epidemic Models written by Denis Mollison and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1995-07-13 with total page 458 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Surveys the state of epidemic modelling, resulting from the NATO Advanced Workshop at the Newton Institute in 1993.

Epidemic Modelling

Epidemic Modelling

Author: D. J. Daley

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 1999-04-13

Total Pages: 160

ISBN-13: 9780521640794

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This is a general introduction to the mathematical modelling of diseases.


Book Synopsis Epidemic Modelling by : D. J. Daley

Download or read book Epidemic Modelling written by D. J. Daley and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1999-04-13 with total page 160 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is a general introduction to the mathematical modelling of diseases.

Mathematical and Statistical Estimation Approaches in Epidemiology

Mathematical and Statistical Estimation Approaches in Epidemiology

Author: Gerardo Chowell

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2009-06-06

Total Pages: 367

ISBN-13: 9048123135

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Mathematical and Statistical Estimation Approaches in Epidemiology compiles t- oretical and practical contributions of experts in the analysis of infectious disease epidemics in a single volume. Recent collections have focused in the analyses and simulation of deterministic and stochastic models whose aim is to identify and rank epidemiological and social mechanisms responsible for disease transmission. The contributions in this volume focus on the connections between models and disease data with emphasis on the application of mathematical and statistical approaches that quantify model and data uncertainty. The book is aimed at public health experts, applied mathematicians and sci- tists in the life and social sciences, particularly graduate or advanced undergraduate students, who are interested not only in building and connecting models to data but also in applying and developing methods that quantify uncertainty in the context of infectious diseases. Chowell and Brauer open this volume with an overview of the classical disease transmission models of Kermack-McKendrick including extensions that account for increased levels of epidemiological heterogeneity. Their theoretical tour is followed by the introduction of a simple methodology for the estimation of, the basic reproduction number,R . The use of this methodology 0 is illustrated, using regional data for 1918–1919 and 1968 in uenza pandemics.


Book Synopsis Mathematical and Statistical Estimation Approaches in Epidemiology by : Gerardo Chowell

Download or read book Mathematical and Statistical Estimation Approaches in Epidemiology written by Gerardo Chowell and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2009-06-06 with total page 367 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Mathematical and Statistical Estimation Approaches in Epidemiology compiles t- oretical and practical contributions of experts in the analysis of infectious disease epidemics in a single volume. Recent collections have focused in the analyses and simulation of deterministic and stochastic models whose aim is to identify and rank epidemiological and social mechanisms responsible for disease transmission. The contributions in this volume focus on the connections between models and disease data with emphasis on the application of mathematical and statistical approaches that quantify model and data uncertainty. The book is aimed at public health experts, applied mathematicians and sci- tists in the life and social sciences, particularly graduate or advanced undergraduate students, who are interested not only in building and connecting models to data but also in applying and developing methods that quantify uncertainty in the context of infectious diseases. Chowell and Brauer open this volume with an overview of the classical disease transmission models of Kermack-McKendrick including extensions that account for increased levels of epidemiological heterogeneity. Their theoretical tour is followed by the introduction of a simple methodology for the estimation of, the basic reproduction number,R . The use of this methodology 0 is illustrated, using regional data for 1918–1919 and 1968 in uenza pandemics.

Mathematical Tools for Understanding Infectious Disease Dynamics

Mathematical Tools for Understanding Infectious Disease Dynamics

Author: Odo Diekmann

Publisher: Princeton University Press

Published: 2013

Total Pages: 516

ISBN-13: 0691155399

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This book explains how to translate biological assumptions into mathematics to construct useful and consistent models, and how to use the biological interpretation and mathematical reasoning to analyze these models. It shows how to relate models to data through statistical inference, and how to gain important insights into infectious disease dynamics by translating mathematical results back to biology.


Book Synopsis Mathematical Tools for Understanding Infectious Disease Dynamics by : Odo Diekmann

Download or read book Mathematical Tools for Understanding Infectious Disease Dynamics written by Odo Diekmann and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2013 with total page 516 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book explains how to translate biological assumptions into mathematics to construct useful and consistent models, and how to use the biological interpretation and mathematical reasoning to analyze these models. It shows how to relate models to data through statistical inference, and how to gain important insights into infectious disease dynamics by translating mathematical results back to biology.

Stochastic Population and Epidemic Models

Stochastic Population and Epidemic Models

Author: Linda J. S. Allen

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2015-08-20

Total Pages: 47

ISBN-13: 331921554X

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This monograph provides a summary of the basic theory of branching processes for single-type and multi-type processes. Classic examples of population and epidemic models illustrate the probability of population or epidemic extinction obtained from the theory of branching processes. The first chapter develops the branching process theory, while in the second chapter two applications to population and epidemic processes of single-type branching process theory are explored. The last two chapters present multi-type branching process applications to epidemic models, and then continuous-time and continuous-state branching processes with applications. In addition, several MATLAB programs for simulating stochastic sample paths are provided in an Appendix. These notes originated as part of a lecture series on Stochastics in Biological Systems at the Mathematical Biosciences Institute in Ohio, USA. Professor Linda Allen is a Paul Whitfield Horn Professor of Mathematics in the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at Texas Tech University, USA.


Book Synopsis Stochastic Population and Epidemic Models by : Linda J. S. Allen

Download or read book Stochastic Population and Epidemic Models written by Linda J. S. Allen and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-08-20 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This monograph provides a summary of the basic theory of branching processes for single-type and multi-type processes. Classic examples of population and epidemic models illustrate the probability of population or epidemic extinction obtained from the theory of branching processes. The first chapter develops the branching process theory, while in the second chapter two applications to population and epidemic processes of single-type branching process theory are explored. The last two chapters present multi-type branching process applications to epidemic models, and then continuous-time and continuous-state branching processes with applications. In addition, several MATLAB programs for simulating stochastic sample paths are provided in an Appendix. These notes originated as part of a lecture series on Stochastics in Biological Systems at the Mathematical Biosciences Institute in Ohio, USA. Professor Linda Allen is a Paul Whitfield Horn Professor of Mathematics in the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at Texas Tech University, USA.

Epidemics

Epidemics

Author: Ottar N. Bjørnstad

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2018-10-30

Total Pages: 312

ISBN-13: 3319974874

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This book is designed to be a practical study in infectious disease dynamics. The book offers an easy to follow implementation and analysis of mathematical epidemiology. The book focuses on recent case studies in order to explore various conceptual, mathematical, and statistical issues. The dynamics of infectious diseases shows a wide diversity of pattern. Some have locally persistent chains-of-transmission, others persist spatially in ‘consumer-resource metapopulations’. Some infections are prevalent among the young, some among the old and some are age-invariant. Temporally, some diseases have little variation in prevalence, some have predictable seasonal shifts and others exhibit violent epidemics that may be regular or irregular in their timing. Models and ‘models-with-data’ have proved invaluable for understanding and predicting this diversity, and thence help improve intervention and control. Using mathematical models to understand infectious disease dynamics has a very rich history in epidemiology. The field has seen broad expansions of theories as well as a surge in real-life application of mathematics to dynamics and control of infectious disease. The chapters of Epidemics: Models and Data using R have been organized in a reasonably logical way: Chapters 1-10 is a mix and match of models, data and statistics pertaining to local disease dynamics; Chapters 11-13 pertains to spatial and spatiotemporal dynamics; Chapter 14 highlights similarities between the dynamics of infectious disease and parasitoid-host dynamics; Finally, Chapters 15 and 16 overview additional statistical methodology useful in studies of infectious disease dynamics. This book can be used as a guide for working with data, models and ‘models-and-data’ to understand epidemics and infectious disease dynamics in space and time.


Book Synopsis Epidemics by : Ottar N. Bjørnstad

Download or read book Epidemics written by Ottar N. Bjørnstad and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-10-30 with total page 312 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is designed to be a practical study in infectious disease dynamics. The book offers an easy to follow implementation and analysis of mathematical epidemiology. The book focuses on recent case studies in order to explore various conceptual, mathematical, and statistical issues. The dynamics of infectious diseases shows a wide diversity of pattern. Some have locally persistent chains-of-transmission, others persist spatially in ‘consumer-resource metapopulations’. Some infections are prevalent among the young, some among the old and some are age-invariant. Temporally, some diseases have little variation in prevalence, some have predictable seasonal shifts and others exhibit violent epidemics that may be regular or irregular in their timing. Models and ‘models-with-data’ have proved invaluable for understanding and predicting this diversity, and thence help improve intervention and control. Using mathematical models to understand infectious disease dynamics has a very rich history in epidemiology. The field has seen broad expansions of theories as well as a surge in real-life application of mathematics to dynamics and control of infectious disease. The chapters of Epidemics: Models and Data using R have been organized in a reasonably logical way: Chapters 1-10 is a mix and match of models, data and statistics pertaining to local disease dynamics; Chapters 11-13 pertains to spatial and spatiotemporal dynamics; Chapter 14 highlights similarities between the dynamics of infectious disease and parasitoid-host dynamics; Finally, Chapters 15 and 16 overview additional statistical methodology useful in studies of infectious disease dynamics. This book can be used as a guide for working with data, models and ‘models-and-data’ to understand epidemics and infectious disease dynamics in space and time.

Stochastic Epidemic Models with Inference

Stochastic Epidemic Models with Inference

Author: Tom Britton

Publisher:

Published: 2019

Total Pages: 477

ISBN-13: 9783030309015

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Focussing on stochastic models for the spread of infectious diseases in a human population, this book is the outcome of a two-week ICPAM/CIMPA school on "Stochastic models of epidemics" which took place in Ziguinchor, Senegal, December 5-16, 2015. The text is divided into four parts, each based on one of the courses given at the school: homogeneous models (Tom Britton and Etienne Pardoux), two-level mixing models (David Sirl and Frank Ball), epidemics on graphs (Viet Chi Tran), and statistics for epidemic models (Catherine Larédo). The CIMPA school was aimed at PhD students and Post Docs in the mathematical sciences. Parts (or all) of this book can be used as the basis for traditional or individual reading courses on the topic. For this reason, examples and exercises (some with solutions) are provided throughout.


Book Synopsis Stochastic Epidemic Models with Inference by : Tom Britton

Download or read book Stochastic Epidemic Models with Inference written by Tom Britton and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 477 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Focussing on stochastic models for the spread of infectious diseases in a human population, this book is the outcome of a two-week ICPAM/CIMPA school on "Stochastic models of epidemics" which took place in Ziguinchor, Senegal, December 5-16, 2015. The text is divided into four parts, each based on one of the courses given at the school: homogeneous models (Tom Britton and Etienne Pardoux), two-level mixing models (David Sirl and Frank Ball), epidemics on graphs (Viet Chi Tran), and statistics for epidemic models (Catherine Larédo). The CIMPA school was aimed at PhD students and Post Docs in the mathematical sciences. Parts (or all) of this book can be used as the basis for traditional or individual reading courses on the topic. For this reason, examples and exercises (some with solutions) are provided throughout.

Epidemic Modelling

Epidemic Modelling

Author: Daryl J. Daley

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 1999

Total Pages: 230

ISBN-13: 9780521014670

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This is a general introduction to the mathematical techniques needed to understand epidemiology. It begins with an historical outline of some disease statistics, before describing simple deterministic and stochastic models.


Book Synopsis Epidemic Modelling by : Daryl J. Daley

Download or read book Epidemic Modelling written by Daryl J. Daley and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1999 with total page 230 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is a general introduction to the mathematical techniques needed to understand epidemiology. It begins with an historical outline of some disease statistics, before describing simple deterministic and stochastic models.