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This paper explores these issues for Ethiopia utilizing an economy-wide computable general equilibrium (CGE) model based on a detailed social accounting matrix (SAM). We present the results of four alternative investment scenarios -- faster investment in i) cities; ii) crop agriculture; iii) the rural non-farm sector and agro-industry; and iv) livestock. The simulations suggest that investments in cities generate faster economic growth and structural transformation. However, given the large share of the population with incomes linked to agriculture and the rural economy, investments in the rural economy are likely to continue to be more pro-poor than urban public investments through the mid-2020s. After the mid-2020s, investments in cities become more pro-poor. In short, though rapid economic growth and structural transformation have diminished the relative importance of the agricultural sector in Ethiopia’s economy, continued public investments in agriculture and the broader agri-food system remain crucial for equity and poverty alleviation in Ethiopia, as well as for reducing food import dependency.
Book Synopsis Structural change and poverty reduction in Ethiopia: Economy-wide analysis of the evolving role of agriculture by : Dorosh, Paul
Download or read book Structural change and poverty reduction in Ethiopia: Economy-wide analysis of the evolving role of agriculture written by Dorosh, Paul and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2018-09-06 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper explores these issues for Ethiopia utilizing an economy-wide computable general equilibrium (CGE) model based on a detailed social accounting matrix (SAM). We present the results of four alternative investment scenarios -- faster investment in i) cities; ii) crop agriculture; iii) the rural non-farm sector and agro-industry; and iv) livestock. The simulations suggest that investments in cities generate faster economic growth and structural transformation. However, given the large share of the population with incomes linked to agriculture and the rural economy, investments in the rural economy are likely to continue to be more pro-poor than urban public investments through the mid-2020s. After the mid-2020s, investments in cities become more pro-poor. In short, though rapid economic growth and structural transformation have diminished the relative importance of the agricultural sector in Ethiopia’s economy, continued public investments in agriculture and the broader agri-food system remain crucial for equity and poverty alleviation in Ethiopia, as well as for reducing food import dependency.
Economic development transforms an economy from one that is largely agricultural to one that is largely manufacturing and services. Since agriculture currently dominates Ethiopia's economy and employment, however, there is an issue as to what its role should be in getting from here to there. In the normal process of economic growth, non-agricultural sectors grow more rapidly than the agricultural sector. The slower growth of agriculture, its relative decline, concern about the difficulty of modernizing agriculture and pessimism about the potentials for technological change in agriculture suggest to some that agriculture should not be given priority for scarce resources in the interests of rapid overall growth. There is substantial evidence, however, that raising agricultural productivity is possible and that agricultural growth plays a key role in economic growth, particularly in low income countries. Moreover, the Government of Ethiopia is committed to rapid growth of agriculture as a means of accelerating the economic transformation and reducing poverty. This paper examines the implications of this commitment to both growth and reduction in poverty, analyzes the progress underway, and diagnoses the critical elements of change in policy required to reach the objectives. Combining a review of experiences of other developing countries with an analysis of growth multipliers for Ethiopia, the paper argues that a high rate of agricultural growth has far-reaching positive implications for increasing employment and accelerating poverty reduction. High agricultural growth also helps avoid the creation of megacities with large slum populations. In order to achieve this rapid agricultural growth with positive economy-wide linkages, however, it is necessary to engage "middle farmers", large enough to adopt new technologies and produce significant marketed surpluses, but small and numerous enough to have spending patterns that drive a vibrant rural non-farm sector. Finally, public and private investments in road, electricity and telecommunications are also needed to reduce marketing costs and enable growth in rural market towns and secondary cities, and provide social services to rural people. Maintaining a growth rate in agricultural GDP of six percent would provide enough employment growth to contribute to rapid economic transformation of the economy and rapid decline in poverty. Given the low level of crop yields relative to those of other countries with comparable resources, and relative to best farmers and experiment stations, a high rate of growth in agricultural productivity appears to be feasible. Current government policies are generally consistent with attaining continued high agricultural growth rates. However, reforms are needed to accelerate growth in seed production and distribution, and to improve fertilizer distribution and to accelerate growth in fertilizer use.
Book Synopsis Agriculture and the Economic Transformation of Ethiopia by : John W. Mellor
Download or read book Agriculture and the Economic Transformation of Ethiopia written by John W. Mellor and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economic development transforms an economy from one that is largely agricultural to one that is largely manufacturing and services. Since agriculture currently dominates Ethiopia's economy and employment, however, there is an issue as to what its role should be in getting from here to there. In the normal process of economic growth, non-agricultural sectors grow more rapidly than the agricultural sector. The slower growth of agriculture, its relative decline, concern about the difficulty of modernizing agriculture and pessimism about the potentials for technological change in agriculture suggest to some that agriculture should not be given priority for scarce resources in the interests of rapid overall growth. There is substantial evidence, however, that raising agricultural productivity is possible and that agricultural growth plays a key role in economic growth, particularly in low income countries. Moreover, the Government of Ethiopia is committed to rapid growth of agriculture as a means of accelerating the economic transformation and reducing poverty. This paper examines the implications of this commitment to both growth and reduction in poverty, analyzes the progress underway, and diagnoses the critical elements of change in policy required to reach the objectives. Combining a review of experiences of other developing countries with an analysis of growth multipliers for Ethiopia, the paper argues that a high rate of agricultural growth has far-reaching positive implications for increasing employment and accelerating poverty reduction. High agricultural growth also helps avoid the creation of megacities with large slum populations. In order to achieve this rapid agricultural growth with positive economy-wide linkages, however, it is necessary to engage "middle farmers", large enough to adopt new technologies and produce significant marketed surpluses, but small and numerous enough to have spending patterns that drive a vibrant rural non-farm sector. Finally, public and private investments in road, electricity and telecommunications are also needed to reduce marketing costs and enable growth in rural market towns and secondary cities, and provide social services to rural people. Maintaining a growth rate in agricultural GDP of six percent would provide enough employment growth to contribute to rapid economic transformation of the economy and rapid decline in poverty. Given the low level of crop yields relative to those of other countries with comparable resources, and relative to best farmers and experiment stations, a high rate of growth in agricultural productivity appears to be feasible. Current government policies are generally consistent with attaining continued high agricultural growth rates. However, reforms are needed to accelerate growth in seed production and distribution, and to improve fertilizer distribution and to accelerate growth in fertilizer use.
Book Synopsis Structural change, fundamentals, and growth: a framework and case studies by : McMillan, Margaret
Download or read book Structural change, fundamentals, and growth: a framework and case studies written by McMillan, Margaret and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2017-05-11 with total page 323 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Ethiopia has experienced impressive agricultural growth and poverty reduction, stemming in part from substantial public investments in agriculture. Yet, the agriculture sector now faces increasing land and water constraints along with other challenges to growth. Ethiopia’s Agrifood System: Past Trends, Present Challenges, and Future Scenarios presents a forward-looking analysis of Ethiopia’s agrifood system in the context of a rapidly changing economy. Growth in the agriculture sector remains essential to continued poverty reduction in Ethiopia and will depend on sustained investment in the agrifood system, especially private sector investment. Many of the policies for a successful agricultural and rural development strategy for Ethiopia are relevant for other African countries, as well. Ethiopia’s Agrifood System should be a valuable resource for policymakers, development specialists, and others concerned with economic development in Africa south of the Sahara.
Book Synopsis Ethiopia's agrifood system: Past trends, present challenges, and future scenarios: Synopsis by : Dorosh, Paul A., ed.
Download or read book Ethiopia's agrifood system: Past trends, present challenges, and future scenarios: Synopsis written by Dorosh, Paul A., ed. and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2020-09-14 with total page 4 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Ethiopia has experienced impressive agricultural growth and poverty reduction, stemming in part from substantial public investments in agriculture. Yet, the agriculture sector now faces increasing land and water constraints along with other challenges to growth. Ethiopia’s Agrifood System: Past Trends, Present Challenges, and Future Scenarios presents a forward-looking analysis of Ethiopia’s agrifood system in the context of a rapidly changing economy. Growth in the agriculture sector remains essential to continued poverty reduction in Ethiopia and will depend on sustained investment in the agrifood system, especially private sector investment. Many of the policies for a successful agricultural and rural development strategy for Ethiopia are relevant for other African countries, as well. Ethiopia’s Agrifood System should be a valuable resource for policymakers, development specialists, and others concerned with economic development in Africa south of the Sahara.
Ethiopia has experienced impressive agricultural growth and poverty reduction, stemming in part from substantial public investments in agriculture. Yet, the agriculture sector now faces increasing land and water constraints along with other challenges to growth. Ethiopia’s Agrifood System: Past Trends, Present Challenges, and Future Scenarios presents a forward-looking analysis of Ethiopia’s agrifood system in the context of a rapidly changing economy. Growth in the agriculture sector remains essential to continued poverty reduction in Ethiopia and will depend on sustained investment in the agrifood system, especially private sector investment. Many of the policies for a successful agricultural and rural development strategy for Ethiopia are relevant for other African countries, as well. Ethiopia’s Agrifood System should be a valuable resource for policymakers, development specialists, and others concerned with economic development in Africa south of the Sahara.
Book Synopsis Ethiopia's agrifood system: Past trends, present challenges, and future scenarios by : Dorosh, Paul A., ed.
Download or read book Ethiopia's agrifood system: Past trends, present challenges, and future scenarios written by Dorosh, Paul A., ed. and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2020-09-14 with total page 520 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Ethiopia has experienced impressive agricultural growth and poverty reduction, stemming in part from substantial public investments in agriculture. Yet, the agriculture sector now faces increasing land and water constraints along with other challenges to growth. Ethiopia’s Agrifood System: Past Trends, Present Challenges, and Future Scenarios presents a forward-looking analysis of Ethiopia’s agrifood system in the context of a rapidly changing economy. Growth in the agriculture sector remains essential to continued poverty reduction in Ethiopia and will depend on sustained investment in the agrifood system, especially private sector investment. Many of the policies for a successful agricultural and rural development strategy for Ethiopia are relevant for other African countries, as well. Ethiopia’s Agrifood System should be a valuable resource for policymakers, development specialists, and others concerned with economic development in Africa south of the Sahara.
"This paper investigates whether the Ethiopian economy is undergoing a virtuous process of structural change. In particular, it assesses the relative contributions of within-sector and between-sector productivity to output per capita growth. Based on data disaggregated into eight sectors for the period 1996-2011, the analysis suggests that the structure of output has changed considerably - redominantly from agriculture to services - but changes in the composition of employment have lagged behind. Labor productivity growth has been strong across most sectors, albeit mainly driven by within-sector productivity improvements. Nonetheless, the pace of structural change is accelerating and its relative contribution to output growth is increasing"--Abstract.
Book Synopsis Structural Change in Ethiopia by : Pedro Martins
Download or read book Structural Change in Ethiopia written by Pedro Martins and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This paper investigates whether the Ethiopian economy is undergoing a virtuous process of structural change. In particular, it assesses the relative contributions of within-sector and between-sector productivity to output per capita growth. Based on data disaggregated into eight sectors for the period 1996-2011, the analysis suggests that the structure of output has changed considerably - redominantly from agriculture to services - but changes in the composition of employment have lagged behind. Labor productivity growth has been strong across most sectors, albeit mainly driven by within-sector productivity improvements. Nonetheless, the pace of structural change is accelerating and its relative contribution to output growth is increasing"--Abstract.
A joint FAO and World Bank study which shows how the farming systems approach can be used to identify priorities for the reduction of hunger and poverty in the main farming systems of the six major developing regions of the world.
Book Synopsis Farming Systems and Poverty by : John A. Dixon
Download or read book Farming Systems and Poverty written by John A. Dixon and published by Food & Agriculture Org.. This book was released on 2001 with total page 424 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A joint FAO and World Bank study which shows how the farming systems approach can be used to identify priorities for the reduction of hunger and poverty in the main farming systems of the six major developing regions of the world.
Despite a rapidly growing enthusiasm around applications of information and communications technologies (ICTs) to smallholder agriculture in developing countries, there are still many questions on the effectiveness of ICT-based approaches. This study assesses the effects of videomediated agricultural extension service provision on farmers’ knowledge and adoption of improved agricultural technologies and practices in Ethiopia. The study focuses on a program piloted by the Government of Ethiopia and Digital Green and poses three questions. First, to what extent does video-mediated extension lead to increased uptake of improved agricultural technologies and practices by smallholder farmers? Second, is video-mediated extension targeted at both spouses of the household more effective than when only targeted at the (typically male) household head? Third, how cost-effective is a video-mediated approach to extension provision? The study explores these questions with a randomized controlled trial designed to evaluate the video-mediated approach as applied to three priority crops (teff, wheat, maize) and three technologies (row planting, precise seeding rates, and urea dressing). The trial was implemented in 347 kebeles (village clusters) during the 2017 meher (rainy) season in Ethiopia’s four most agriculturally important regional states. Analysis of data from our surveys of 2,422 households and 896 extension agents indicates that the video-mediated approach is more effective than the conventional approach in achieving several key outcomes. Specifically, we find that videomediated extension reaches a wider audience than the conventional approach and leads to higher levels of agricultural knowledge and uptake of technologies in those kebeles randomly assigned to the program. While our results do point to greater participation and greater knowledge of female spouses in kebeles where both male and female spouses were targeted by the program, we do not find clear evidence that the more inclusive approach translated into higher uptake of the subject technologies and practices. Finally, we find that the video-mediated approach becomes less costly as the scale of operation increases.
Book Synopsis Accelerating technical change through video-mediated agricultural extension: Evidence from Ethiopia by : Abate, Gashaw T.
Download or read book Accelerating technical change through video-mediated agricultural extension: Evidence from Ethiopia written by Abate, Gashaw T. and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on with total page 74 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Despite a rapidly growing enthusiasm around applications of information and communications technologies (ICTs) to smallholder agriculture in developing countries, there are still many questions on the effectiveness of ICT-based approaches. This study assesses the effects of videomediated agricultural extension service provision on farmers’ knowledge and adoption of improved agricultural technologies and practices in Ethiopia. The study focuses on a program piloted by the Government of Ethiopia and Digital Green and poses three questions. First, to what extent does video-mediated extension lead to increased uptake of improved agricultural technologies and practices by smallholder farmers? Second, is video-mediated extension targeted at both spouses of the household more effective than when only targeted at the (typically male) household head? Third, how cost-effective is a video-mediated approach to extension provision? The study explores these questions with a randomized controlled trial designed to evaluate the video-mediated approach as applied to three priority crops (teff, wheat, maize) and three technologies (row planting, precise seeding rates, and urea dressing). The trial was implemented in 347 kebeles (village clusters) during the 2017 meher (rainy) season in Ethiopia’s four most agriculturally important regional states. Analysis of data from our surveys of 2,422 households and 896 extension agents indicates that the video-mediated approach is more effective than the conventional approach in achieving several key outcomes. Specifically, we find that videomediated extension reaches a wider audience than the conventional approach and leads to higher levels of agricultural knowledge and uptake of technologies in those kebeles randomly assigned to the program. While our results do point to greater participation and greater knowledge of female spouses in kebeles where both male and female spouses were targeted by the program, we do not find clear evidence that the more inclusive approach translated into higher uptake of the subject technologies and practices. Finally, we find that the video-mediated approach becomes less costly as the scale of operation increases.
Teff is the staple food of Ethiopia and its biggest cash crop. Teff is nutritious and well adapted to the growing conditions in Ethiopia, but little has been invested to improve the crop’s productivity or to expand domestic or international markets. Given high levels of poverty and food insecurity in Ethiopia, coupled with the large dependency on agriculture, agricultural transformation is a critical development goal. Identifying opportunities to improve agricultural performance, and confronting the challenges to doing so, is essential. The Economics of Teff: Exploring Ethiopia’s Biggest Cash Crop examines the potential of teff and offers recommendations on how to increase production and expand markets in order to benefit both farmers and consumers.
Book Synopsis The economics of teff: Exploring Ethiopia’s biggest cash crop: Synopsis by : Minten, Bart
Download or read book The economics of teff: Exploring Ethiopia’s biggest cash crop: Synopsis written by Minten, Bart and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2018-07-19 with total page 4 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Teff is the staple food of Ethiopia and its biggest cash crop. Teff is nutritious and well adapted to the growing conditions in Ethiopia, but little has been invested to improve the crop’s productivity or to expand domestic or international markets. Given high levels of poverty and food insecurity in Ethiopia, coupled with the large dependency on agriculture, agricultural transformation is a critical development goal. Identifying opportunities to improve agricultural performance, and confronting the challenges to doing so, is essential. The Economics of Teff: Exploring Ethiopia’s Biggest Cash Crop examines the potential of teff and offers recommendations on how to increase production and expand markets in order to benefit both farmers and consumers.
Ethiopia has experienced rapid economic growth since 2005. Real gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an average rate of 10.5 per cent per annum for the period between 2004-05 and 2013-14. Public investment in key infrastructure and interventions in the agriculture sector have made important contributions to GDP growth. This growth has been accompanied by a process of capital deepening and signs of structural shift away from traditional and primary sectors towards secondary and tertiary sectors. Both processes of high growth and structural shift have important implications for poverty reduction and income distribution. One potential channel through which these influences work is the labour market. The indications of structural transformation that Ethiopia has shown in the last decade, including a continuous decline in the role of agriculture and rise in that of services, have led to reallocation of jobs and labour from low-productivity agriculture to more productive industrial-in particular the construction sub-sector, and service sectors. The rise in total factor productivity, overall increase in labour force participation rate, and fall in the labour share of the agriculture sector are indicative of the nature and extent of structural shift in the Ethiopian economy. A more durable shift of economic activities towards the manufacturing sector is expected to follow the rising trend in investment in the sector. This study explores the impact of the high economic growth and slow but unmistakable structural change on a number of economic outcomes working through the labour market. The growth opportunities and challenges of the Ethiopian economy are also discussed.
Book Synopsis Ethiopia by : Yared Seid
Download or read book Ethiopia written by Yared Seid and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Ethiopia has experienced rapid economic growth since 2005. Real gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an average rate of 10.5 per cent per annum for the period between 2004-05 and 2013-14. Public investment in key infrastructure and interventions in the agriculture sector have made important contributions to GDP growth. This growth has been accompanied by a process of capital deepening and signs of structural shift away from traditional and primary sectors towards secondary and tertiary sectors. Both processes of high growth and structural shift have important implications for poverty reduction and income distribution. One potential channel through which these influences work is the labour market. The indications of structural transformation that Ethiopia has shown in the last decade, including a continuous decline in the role of agriculture and rise in that of services, have led to reallocation of jobs and labour from low-productivity agriculture to more productive industrial-in particular the construction sub-sector, and service sectors. The rise in total factor productivity, overall increase in labour force participation rate, and fall in the labour share of the agriculture sector are indicative of the nature and extent of structural shift in the Ethiopian economy. A more durable shift of economic activities towards the manufacturing sector is expected to follow the rising trend in investment in the sector. This study explores the impact of the high economic growth and slow but unmistakable structural change on a number of economic outcomes working through the labour market. The growth opportunities and challenges of the Ethiopian economy are also discussed.
