The African Continental Free Trade Agreement: Welfare Gains Estimates from a General Equilibrium Model

The African Continental Free Trade Agreement: Welfare Gains Estimates from a General Equilibrium Model

Author: Mr.Lisandro Abrego

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2019-06-07

Total Pages: 32

ISBN-13: 1498314392

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In March 2018, representatives of member countries of the African Union signed the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement. This agreement provides a framework for trade liberalization in goods and services and is expected to eventually cover all African countries. Using a multi-country, multi-sector general equilibrium model based on Costinot and Rodriguez-Clare (2014), we estimate the welfare effects of the AfCFTA for 45 countries in Africa. Three different model specifications—comprising both perfect competition and monopolistic competition—are used. Simulations include full elimination of import tariffs and partial but substantial reduction in non-tariff barriers (NTBs). Results reveal significant potential welfare gains from trade liberalization in Africa. As intra-regional import tariffs in the continent are already low, the bulk of these gains come from lowering NTBs. Overall gains for the continent are broadly similar under the three model specifications used, with considerable variation of potential welfare gains across countries in all model structures.


Book Synopsis The African Continental Free Trade Agreement: Welfare Gains Estimates from a General Equilibrium Model by : Mr.Lisandro Abrego

Download or read book The African Continental Free Trade Agreement: Welfare Gains Estimates from a General Equilibrium Model written by Mr.Lisandro Abrego and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-06-07 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In March 2018, representatives of member countries of the African Union signed the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement. This agreement provides a framework for trade liberalization in goods and services and is expected to eventually cover all African countries. Using a multi-country, multi-sector general equilibrium model based on Costinot and Rodriguez-Clare (2014), we estimate the welfare effects of the AfCFTA for 45 countries in Africa. Three different model specifications—comprising both perfect competition and monopolistic competition—are used. Simulations include full elimination of import tariffs and partial but substantial reduction in non-tariff barriers (NTBs). Results reveal significant potential welfare gains from trade liberalization in Africa. As intra-regional import tariffs in the continent are already low, the bulk of these gains come from lowering NTBs. Overall gains for the continent are broadly similar under the three model specifications used, with considerable variation of potential welfare gains across countries in all model structures.


The African Continental Free Trade Agreement

The African Continental Free Trade Agreement

Author:

Publisher:

Published: 2019

Total Pages: 32

ISBN-13:

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In March 2018, representatives of member countries of the African Union signed the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement. This agreement provides a framework for trade liberalization in goods and services and is expected to eventually cover all African countries. Using a multi-country, multi-sector general equilibrium model based on Costinot and Rodriguez-Clare (2014), we estimate the welfare effects of the AfCFTA for 45 countries in Africa. Three different model specifications—comprising both perfect competition and monopolistic competition—are used. Simulations include full elimination of import tariffs and partial but substantial reduction in non-tariff barriers (NTBs). Results reveal significant potential welfare gains from trade liberalization in Africa. As intra-regional import tariffs in the continent are already low, the bulk of these gains come from lowering NTBs. Overall gains for the continent are broadly similar under the three model specifications used, with considerable variation of potential welfare gains across countries in all model structures.


Book Synopsis The African Continental Free Trade Agreement by :

Download or read book The African Continental Free Trade Agreement written by and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In March 2018, representatives of member countries of the African Union signed the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement. This agreement provides a framework for trade liberalization in goods and services and is expected to eventually cover all African countries. Using a multi-country, multi-sector general equilibrium model based on Costinot and Rodriguez-Clare (2014), we estimate the welfare effects of the AfCFTA for 45 countries in Africa. Three different model specifications—comprising both perfect competition and monopolistic competition—are used. Simulations include full elimination of import tariffs and partial but substantial reduction in non-tariff barriers (NTBs). Results reveal significant potential welfare gains from trade liberalization in Africa. As intra-regional import tariffs in the continent are already low, the bulk of these gains come from lowering NTBs. Overall gains for the continent are broadly similar under the three model specifications used, with considerable variation of potential welfare gains across countries in all model structures.


The African Continental Free Trade Area: Potential Economic Impact and Challenges

The African Continental Free Trade Area: Potential Economic Impact and Challenges

Author: Mr.Lisandro Abrego

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2020-05-13

Total Pages: 41

ISBN-13: 1513542370

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Political momentum towards Africa-wide free trade has been intensifying. In March 2018, over 40 countries signed the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement. Once fully implemented, the AfCFTA is expected to cover all 55 African countries, with a combined GDP of about US$2.2 trillion. This SDN takes stock of recent trade developments in Sub-Saharan Africa and assesses the potential benefits and costs of the AfCFTA, as well as challenges to its successful implementation. In addition to increased trade flows both in existing and new products, the AfCFTA has the potential to generate substantial economic benefits for African countries. These benefits include higher income arising from increased efficiency and productivity from improved resource allocation, higher cross-border investment flows, and technology transfers. Besides lowering import tariffs, to ensure these benefits, African countries will need reduce other trade barriers by making more efficient their customs procedures, reducing their wide infrastructure gaps, and improving their business climates. At the same time, policy measures should be taken to mitigate the differential impact of trade liberalization on certain groups as resources are reallocated in the economy and activities migrate to locations with comparatively lower costs.


Book Synopsis The African Continental Free Trade Area: Potential Economic Impact and Challenges by : Mr.Lisandro Abrego

Download or read book The African Continental Free Trade Area: Potential Economic Impact and Challenges written by Mr.Lisandro Abrego and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-05-13 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Political momentum towards Africa-wide free trade has been intensifying. In March 2018, over 40 countries signed the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement. Once fully implemented, the AfCFTA is expected to cover all 55 African countries, with a combined GDP of about US$2.2 trillion. This SDN takes stock of recent trade developments in Sub-Saharan Africa and assesses the potential benefits and costs of the AfCFTA, as well as challenges to its successful implementation. In addition to increased trade flows both in existing and new products, the AfCFTA has the potential to generate substantial economic benefits for African countries. These benefits include higher income arising from increased efficiency and productivity from improved resource allocation, higher cross-border investment flows, and technology transfers. Besides lowering import tariffs, to ensure these benefits, African countries will need reduce other trade barriers by making more efficient their customs procedures, reducing their wide infrastructure gaps, and improving their business climates. At the same time, policy measures should be taken to mitigate the differential impact of trade liberalization on certain groups as resources are reallocated in the economy and activities migrate to locations with comparatively lower costs.


The African Continental Free Trade Area

The African Continental Free Trade Area

Author: World Bank

Publisher: World Bank Publications

Published: 2020-09-28

Total Pages: 161

ISBN-13: 1464815607

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The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement will create the largest free trade area in the world, measured by the number of countries participating. The pact will connect 1.3 billion people across 55 countries with a combined GDP valued at $3.4 trillion. It has the potential to lift 30 million people out of extreme poverty by 2035. But achieving its full potential will depend on putting in place significant policy reforms and trade facilitation measures. The scope of the agreement is considerable. It will reduce tariffs among member countries and cover policy areas, such as trade facilitation and services, as well as regulatory measures, such as sanitary standards and technical barriers to trade. It will complement existing subregional economic communities and trade agreements by offering a continent-wide regulatory framework and by regulating policy areas—such as investment and intellectual property rights protection—that have not been covered in most subregional agreements. The African Continental Free Trade Area: Economic and Distributional Effects quantifies the long-term implications of the agreement for growth, trade, poverty reduction, and employment. Its analysis goes beyond that in previous studies that have largely focused on tariff and nontariff barriers in goods—by including the effects of services and trade facilitation measures, as well as the distributional impacts on poverty, employment, and wages of female and male workers. It is designed to guide policy makers as they develop and implement the extensive range of reforms needed to realize the substantial rewards that the agreement offers. The analysis shows that full implementation of AfCFTA could boost income by 7 percent, or nearly $450 billion, in 2014 prices and market exchange rates. The agreement would also significantly expand African trade—particularly intraregional trade in manufacturing. In addition, it would increase employment opportunities and wages for unskilled workers and help close the wage gap between men and women.


Book Synopsis The African Continental Free Trade Area by : World Bank

Download or read book The African Continental Free Trade Area written by World Bank and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2020-09-28 with total page 161 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement will create the largest free trade area in the world, measured by the number of countries participating. The pact will connect 1.3 billion people across 55 countries with a combined GDP valued at $3.4 trillion. It has the potential to lift 30 million people out of extreme poverty by 2035. But achieving its full potential will depend on putting in place significant policy reforms and trade facilitation measures. The scope of the agreement is considerable. It will reduce tariffs among member countries and cover policy areas, such as trade facilitation and services, as well as regulatory measures, such as sanitary standards and technical barriers to trade. It will complement existing subregional economic communities and trade agreements by offering a continent-wide regulatory framework and by regulating policy areas—such as investment and intellectual property rights protection—that have not been covered in most subregional agreements. The African Continental Free Trade Area: Economic and Distributional Effects quantifies the long-term implications of the agreement for growth, trade, poverty reduction, and employment. Its analysis goes beyond that in previous studies that have largely focused on tariff and nontariff barriers in goods—by including the effects of services and trade facilitation measures, as well as the distributional impacts on poverty, employment, and wages of female and male workers. It is designed to guide policy makers as they develop and implement the extensive range of reforms needed to realize the substantial rewards that the agreement offers. The analysis shows that full implementation of AfCFTA could boost income by 7 percent, or nearly $450 billion, in 2014 prices and market exchange rates. The agreement would also significantly expand African trade—particularly intraregional trade in manufacturing. In addition, it would increase employment opportunities and wages for unskilled workers and help close the wage gap between men and women.


Assessing Regional Integration in Africa V

Assessing Regional Integration in Africa V

Author:

Publisher: UN

Published: 2012

Total Pages: 166

ISBN-13:

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The fifth of the series (ARIA/V) has come at a time of renewed enthusiasm for shortening the period of the vision of the Abuja Treaty. Its overall objective is to provide an analytical research publication that defines frameworks for African Governments, the African Union and the Regional Economic Communities, towards accelerating the establishment of the African Common Market through: the speedy removal of all tariff and non-tariff barriers, obstacles to free movement of people, investments and factors of production in general across Africa, and through fast-tracking the creation of an African continental Free Trade Area


Book Synopsis Assessing Regional Integration in Africa V by :

Download or read book Assessing Regional Integration in Africa V written by and published by UN. This book was released on 2012 with total page 166 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The fifth of the series (ARIA/V) has come at a time of renewed enthusiasm for shortening the period of the vision of the Abuja Treaty. Its overall objective is to provide an analytical research publication that defines frameworks for African Governments, the African Union and the Regional Economic Communities, towards accelerating the establishment of the African Common Market through: the speedy removal of all tariff and non-tariff barriers, obstacles to free movement of people, investments and factors of production in general across Africa, and through fast-tracking the creation of an African continental Free Trade Area


Methodology for Impact Assessment of Free Trade Agreements

Methodology for Impact Assessment of Free Trade Agreements

Author: Michael G. Plummer

Publisher: Asian Development Bank

Published: 2011-02-01

Total Pages: 194

ISBN-13: 9290921978

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This publication displays the menu for choice of available methods to evaluate the impact of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs). It caters mainly to policy makers from developing countries and aims to equip them with some economic knowledge and techniques that will enable them to conduct their own economic evaluation studies on existing or future FTAs, or to critically re-examine the results of impact assessment studies conducted by others, at the very least.


Book Synopsis Methodology for Impact Assessment of Free Trade Agreements by : Michael G. Plummer

Download or read book Methodology for Impact Assessment of Free Trade Agreements written by Michael G. Plummer and published by Asian Development Bank. This book was released on 2011-02-01 with total page 194 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This publication displays the menu for choice of available methods to evaluate the impact of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs). It caters mainly to policy makers from developing countries and aims to equip them with some economic knowledge and techniques that will enable them to conduct their own economic evaluation studies on existing or future FTAs, or to critically re-examine the results of impact assessment studies conducted by others, at the very least.


Economic Development in Africa Report 2021

Economic Development in Africa Report 2021

Author: UNITED NATIONS CONFERENCE ON TRADE AND DEVELOPMENT.

Publisher:

Published: 2022-01-07

Total Pages: 220

ISBN-13: 9789211130041

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The African Continental Free Trade Area is expected to be a game changer for development ambitions in Africa.


Book Synopsis Economic Development in Africa Report 2021 by : UNITED NATIONS CONFERENCE ON TRADE AND DEVELOPMENT.

Download or read book Economic Development in Africa Report 2021 written by UNITED NATIONS CONFERENCE ON TRADE AND DEVELOPMENT. and published by . This book was released on 2022-01-07 with total page 220 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The African Continental Free Trade Area is expected to be a game changer for development ambitions in Africa.


NAFTA to USMCA: What is Gained?

NAFTA to USMCA: What is Gained?

Author: Mary E. Burfisher

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2019-03-26

Total Pages: 34

ISBN-13: 1498303285

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The United States – Mexico – Canada Agreement (USMCA) was signed on November 30, 2018 and aims to replace and modernize the North-American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). This paper uses a global, multisector, computable-general-equilibrium model to provide an analytical assessment of five key provisions in the new agreement, including tighter rules of origin in the automotive, textiles and apparel sectors, more liberalized agricultural trade, and other trade facilitation measures. The results show that together these provisions would adversely affect trade in the automotive, textiles and apparel sectors, while generating modest aggregate gains in terms of welfare, mostly driven by improved goods market access, with a negligible effect on real GDP. The welfare benefits from USMCA would be greatly enhanced with the elimination of U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from Canada and Mexico and the elimination of the Canadian and Mexican import surtaxes imposed after the U.S. tariffs were put in place.


Book Synopsis NAFTA to USMCA: What is Gained? by : Mary E. Burfisher

Download or read book NAFTA to USMCA: What is Gained? written by Mary E. Burfisher and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-03-26 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The United States – Mexico – Canada Agreement (USMCA) was signed on November 30, 2018 and aims to replace and modernize the North-American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). This paper uses a global, multisector, computable-general-equilibrium model to provide an analytical assessment of five key provisions in the new agreement, including tighter rules of origin in the automotive, textiles and apparel sectors, more liberalized agricultural trade, and other trade facilitation measures. The results show that together these provisions would adversely affect trade in the automotive, textiles and apparel sectors, while generating modest aggregate gains in terms of welfare, mostly driven by improved goods market access, with a negligible effect on real GDP. The welfare benefits from USMCA would be greatly enhanced with the elimination of U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from Canada and Mexico and the elimination of the Canadian and Mexican import surtaxes imposed after the U.S. tariffs were put in place.


Economic Integration in the Maghreb

Economic Integration in the Maghreb

Author: Mr.Alexei P Kireyev

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2019-02-13

Total Pages: 47

ISBN-13: 1484378377

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Individual countries of the Maghreb have achieved substantial progress on trade, but, as a region they remain the least integrated in the world. The share of intraregional trade is less than 5 percent of their total trade, substantially lower than in all other regional trading blocs around the world. Geopolitical considerations and restrictive economic policies have stifled regional integration. Economic policies have been guided by country-level considerations, with little attention to the region, and are not coordinated. Restrictions on trade and capital flows remain substantial and constrain regional integration for the private sector.


Book Synopsis Economic Integration in the Maghreb by : Mr.Alexei P Kireyev

Download or read book Economic Integration in the Maghreb written by Mr.Alexei P Kireyev and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-02-13 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Individual countries of the Maghreb have achieved substantial progress on trade, but, as a region they remain the least integrated in the world. The share of intraregional trade is less than 5 percent of their total trade, substantially lower than in all other regional trading blocs around the world. Geopolitical considerations and restrictive economic policies have stifled regional integration. Economic policies have been guided by country-level considerations, with little attention to the region, and are not coordinated. Restrictions on trade and capital flows remain substantial and constrain regional integration for the private sector.


Africa-EU Relations and the African Continental Free Trade Area

Africa-EU Relations and the African Continental Free Trade Area

Author: Leon Mwamba Tshimpaka

Publisher: Springer Nature

Published: 2024

Total Pages: 303

ISBN-13: 3031579925

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This book examines the establishment and implementation of the AfCFTA, which is the largest free trade area globally, covering 54 African countries. It explores how this initiative has the potential to reshape Africa-EU relations by promoting intra-African trade, economic integration, and diversification, as well as inter-regional trade. Both continents have potential to serve as global actors in reshaping the global order in ways that can affect how multilateralism foster inclusive development. However, whether this will happen would be a function of how the EU and AU define their interests and relationship. Leon Mwamba Tshimpaka is Senior Postdoctoral Research Fellow in the Centre for the Study of Governance Innovation (GovInn) and the SARChI Research Chair in the Political Economy of Migration in the SADC Region in the Department of Political Sciences of the University of Pretoria, South Africa. Samuel Ojo Oloruntoba is Assistant Professor at the Institute of African Studies, Carleton University, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada and Honorary Professor at the Thabo Mbeki African School of Public and International Affairs, University of South Africa, where he was previously an Associate Professor. .


Book Synopsis Africa-EU Relations and the African Continental Free Trade Area by : Leon Mwamba Tshimpaka

Download or read book Africa-EU Relations and the African Continental Free Trade Area written by Leon Mwamba Tshimpaka and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2024 with total page 303 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book examines the establishment and implementation of the AfCFTA, which is the largest free trade area globally, covering 54 African countries. It explores how this initiative has the potential to reshape Africa-EU relations by promoting intra-African trade, economic integration, and diversification, as well as inter-regional trade. Both continents have potential to serve as global actors in reshaping the global order in ways that can affect how multilateralism foster inclusive development. However, whether this will happen would be a function of how the EU and AU define their interests and relationship. Leon Mwamba Tshimpaka is Senior Postdoctoral Research Fellow in the Centre for the Study of Governance Innovation (GovInn) and the SARChI Research Chair in the Political Economy of Migration in the SADC Region in the Department of Political Sciences of the University of Pretoria, South Africa. Samuel Ojo Oloruntoba is Assistant Professor at the Institute of African Studies, Carleton University, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada and Honorary Professor at the Thabo Mbeki African School of Public and International Affairs, University of South Africa, where he was previously an Associate Professor. .