The capacity of welfare regimes to absorb macro-economic shocks: National differences in the development of unemployment, poverty and the distribution of income in the aftermath of the financial crisis 2008

The capacity of welfare regimes to absorb macro-economic shocks: National differences in the development of unemployment, poverty and the distribution of income in the aftermath of the financial crisis 2008

Author: Verena Maria Mai

Publisher: Anchor Academic Publishing (aap_verlag)

Published: 2014-02-01

Total Pages: 53

ISBN-13: 3954896508

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The financial crisis, which struck the EU countries in 2008, was followed by the severest economic recession since the end of the Second World War. This book illustrates the development of unemployment, poverty and the distribution of income within the social systems of Sweden, Austria and Spain in the aftermath of the financial crisis 2008. Whether one country has been more effective in cushioning the negative impacts of the economic downturn and whether variations in the development of these socio-political indicators are attributable to the different welfare state models, are central to this piece of research. This analysis supports the findings of previous research. Firstly, it could be observed that some societal groups have been more vulnerable to the negative impacts of the financial crisis 2008 than others. Secondly, less developed welfare states have to react in more active ways to crises compared to countries which have the schemes already implemented before an economic downturn shows its consequences.


Book Synopsis The capacity of welfare regimes to absorb macro-economic shocks: National differences in the development of unemployment, poverty and the distribution of income in the aftermath of the financial crisis 2008 by : Verena Maria Mai

Download or read book The capacity of welfare regimes to absorb macro-economic shocks: National differences in the development of unemployment, poverty and the distribution of income in the aftermath of the financial crisis 2008 written by Verena Maria Mai and published by Anchor Academic Publishing (aap_verlag). This book was released on 2014-02-01 with total page 53 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The financial crisis, which struck the EU countries in 2008, was followed by the severest economic recession since the end of the Second World War. This book illustrates the development of unemployment, poverty and the distribution of income within the social systems of Sweden, Austria and Spain in the aftermath of the financial crisis 2008. Whether one country has been more effective in cushioning the negative impacts of the economic downturn and whether variations in the development of these socio-political indicators are attributable to the different welfare state models, are central to this piece of research. This analysis supports the findings of previous research. Firstly, it could be observed that some societal groups have been more vulnerable to the negative impacts of the financial crisis 2008 than others. Secondly, less developed welfare states have to react in more active ways to crises compared to countries which have the schemes already implemented before an economic downturn shows its consequences.


Resilience of European welfare regimes against the negative impacts of the financial crisis 2008

Resilience of European welfare regimes against the negative impacts of the financial crisis 2008

Author: Verena Mai

Publisher: GRIN Verlag

Published: 2013-05-27

Total Pages: 53

ISBN-13: 3656430985

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Bachelor Thesis from the year 2012 in the subject Politics - Region: Western Europe, grade: 1,0, Vienna University of Economics and Business (Institut für Sozialpolitik), language: English, abstract: The financial crisis, which struck the EU countries in 2008, was followed by the severest economic recession since the end of the Second World War, involving a significant drop in GDP (negative economic growth) for most of them. Output growth has turned negative or stagnated in several countries, the impact on labour markets has led to rising unemployment rates and public debt and deficits have soared. In the aftermath of the crisis countries were confronted with a deteriorating social context, which is due to the severity of the economic downturn, the worsening job situation and the increased unemployment. This has resulted in a heightened need for social protection while at the same time making it more difficult to finance. The crisis has highlighted the role of social protection as a social buffer and an economic stabilizer that cushions the impact of recessions. Social benefits have been an essential element of national crisis response in the countries of the European Union. Social security programmes not only act as an important component of the crisis „exit strategy“, helping to revitalize the economy but they also protect the most vulnerable part of society. One of the lessons that can be learned from the crisis is that countries and their inhabitants are differently exposed to economic shocks due to the variations in the design of social security that they are covered with. This consideration is essential to analysis because, as Őzdemir et al (2010) point out, the origins of the crisis can be spotted in the financial sector, where income levels tend to be relatively high. Nevertheless, there is piecemeal evidence that the most vulnerable in society have to struggle most with the negative consequences of the crisis. This work examines the capacity of specific types of welfare states, classified mainly according to Esping-Andersen’s concept, to absorb macro-economic shocks – in particular with reference to the most vulnerable parts of society. Which social policy challenges arise in Sweden, Austria and Spain and which differences in the economic and socio-political impacts of the crisis can be identified? The question regarding the ability of a system to handle external disturbances gains importance, as one of the main claims after the outbreak of the financial crisis is to improve our political, economical and societal systems to become more resistant or resilient.


Book Synopsis Resilience of European welfare regimes against the negative impacts of the financial crisis 2008 by : Verena Mai

Download or read book Resilience of European welfare regimes against the negative impacts of the financial crisis 2008 written by Verena Mai and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2013-05-27 with total page 53 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bachelor Thesis from the year 2012 in the subject Politics - Region: Western Europe, grade: 1,0, Vienna University of Economics and Business (Institut für Sozialpolitik), language: English, abstract: The financial crisis, which struck the EU countries in 2008, was followed by the severest economic recession since the end of the Second World War, involving a significant drop in GDP (negative economic growth) for most of them. Output growth has turned negative or stagnated in several countries, the impact on labour markets has led to rising unemployment rates and public debt and deficits have soared. In the aftermath of the crisis countries were confronted with a deteriorating social context, which is due to the severity of the economic downturn, the worsening job situation and the increased unemployment. This has resulted in a heightened need for social protection while at the same time making it more difficult to finance. The crisis has highlighted the role of social protection as a social buffer and an economic stabilizer that cushions the impact of recessions. Social benefits have been an essential element of national crisis response in the countries of the European Union. Social security programmes not only act as an important component of the crisis „exit strategy“, helping to revitalize the economy but they also protect the most vulnerable part of society. One of the lessons that can be learned from the crisis is that countries and their inhabitants are differently exposed to economic shocks due to the variations in the design of social security that they are covered with. This consideration is essential to analysis because, as Őzdemir et al (2010) point out, the origins of the crisis can be spotted in the financial sector, where income levels tend to be relatively high. Nevertheless, there is piecemeal evidence that the most vulnerable in society have to struggle most with the negative consequences of the crisis. This work examines the capacity of specific types of welfare states, classified mainly according to Esping-Andersen’s concept, to absorb macro-economic shocks – in particular with reference to the most vulnerable parts of society. Which social policy challenges arise in Sweden, Austria and Spain and which differences in the economic and socio-political impacts of the crisis can be identified? The question regarding the ability of a system to handle external disturbances gains importance, as one of the main claims after the outbreak of the financial crisis is to improve our political, economical and societal systems to become more resistant or resilient.


Global Youth Unemployment

Global Youth Unemployment

Author: Ross Fergusson

Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing

Published: 2021-04-30

Total Pages: 296

ISBN-13: 1789900425

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This timely book introduces a fresh perspective on youth unemployment by analysing it as a global phenomenon. Ross Fergusson and Nicola Yeates argue that only by incorporating analysis of the dynamics of the global economy and global governance can we make convincing, comprehensive sense of these developments. The authors present substantial new evidence spanning a century pointing to the strong relationships between youth unemployment, globalisation, economic crises and consequent harms to young people’s social and economic welfare worldwide. The book notably encompasses data and analysis spanning the Global South as well as the Global North.


Book Synopsis Global Youth Unemployment by : Ross Fergusson

Download or read book Global Youth Unemployment written by Ross Fergusson and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2021-04-30 with total page 296 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This timely book introduces a fresh perspective on youth unemployment by analysing it as a global phenomenon. Ross Fergusson and Nicola Yeates argue that only by incorporating analysis of the dynamics of the global economy and global governance can we make convincing, comprehensive sense of these developments. The authors present substantial new evidence spanning a century pointing to the strong relationships between youth unemployment, globalisation, economic crises and consequent harms to young people’s social and economic welfare worldwide. The book notably encompasses data and analysis spanning the Global South as well as the Global North.


Proceedings of the 6th International Conference on Economic Management and Green Development

Proceedings of the 6th International Conference on Economic Management and Green Development

Author: Xiaolong Li

Publisher: Springer Nature

Published: 2023-06-27

Total Pages: 1647

ISBN-13: 9811978263

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This proceedings book, together with the conference, looks forward to spark inspirations and promote collaborations. International Conference on Economic Management and Green Development (ICEMGD) is an annual conference aiming at bringing together researchers from the fields of economics, business management, public administration, and green development for the sharing of research methods and theoretical breakthroughs. The proceedings consist of papers accepted by the 6th ICEMGD, which are carefully selected and reviewed by professional reviewers from corresponding research fields and the editing committee of the conference. The papers have a diverse range of topics situated at the intersecting field of economic management, public administration, and green development. ICEMGD is working to provide a platform for international participants from fields like macro- and microeconomics, international economics, finance, agricultural economics, health economics, business management and marketing strategies, regional development studies, social governance, and sustainable development. The proceedings will be of interest to researchers, academics, professionals, and policy makers in the field of economic management, public administration, and development studies.


Book Synopsis Proceedings of the 6th International Conference on Economic Management and Green Development by : Xiaolong Li

Download or read book Proceedings of the 6th International Conference on Economic Management and Green Development written by Xiaolong Li and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2023-06-27 with total page 1647 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This proceedings book, together with the conference, looks forward to spark inspirations and promote collaborations. International Conference on Economic Management and Green Development (ICEMGD) is an annual conference aiming at bringing together researchers from the fields of economics, business management, public administration, and green development for the sharing of research methods and theoretical breakthroughs. The proceedings consist of papers accepted by the 6th ICEMGD, which are carefully selected and reviewed by professional reviewers from corresponding research fields and the editing committee of the conference. The papers have a diverse range of topics situated at the intersecting field of economic management, public administration, and green development. ICEMGD is working to provide a platform for international participants from fields like macro- and microeconomics, international economics, finance, agricultural economics, health economics, business management and marketing strategies, regional development studies, social governance, and sustainable development. The proceedings will be of interest to researchers, academics, professionals, and policy makers in the field of economic management, public administration, and development studies.


Labour Law and Social Progress

Labour Law and Social Progress

Author: Roger Blanpain

Publisher: Kluwer Law International B.V.

Published: 2016-04-22

Total Pages: 346

ISBN-13: 904116748X

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For forty years the international watchword has been deregulation of labour law and of social security. Now, however, the rise in unemployment and lack of employment security, the dizzying inequality gulf, and the environmental disasters and mass migrations caused by this deregulation are generating an impetus that defines social justice no longer merely in terms of the equitable distribution of resources, but also – and often primarily – in terms of the just recognition of persons. This collection of incisive essays recognizes that the growing interdependence of all of the people of the earth demands that labour rights are understood as an aspect of human rights, and thus envisaged at the international level. Contributions by twenty outstanding labour law scholars from a range of countries worldwide provide in-depth analysis of such aspects of the debate as the following: – collective action in the interests of market effectiveness as well as fair outcomes for workers; - right to strike; - resilience of trade unions and collective bargaining as mechanisms of labour market regulation; - importance of national policy, despite the influence of global market forces, in shaping national outcomes; - work as the locus of the relationship between humans and nature; - search for a legal foundation for corporate social responsibility; - litigation as an alternative to collective bargaining; - the role of collective labour relations for immigrants and disabled people; - lessons that developed countries could learn from mechanisms pioneered in developing countries in coping with conditions of austerity; and - the trap of soft law and of declarations of intent that weigh lightly in the face of the power of the interests at play in international trade. The essays take stock of the dimensions of the current situation and also explore paths leading to a better achievement of social justice in labour law. These essays recognize that economic development and the pursuit of social justice are interwoven in a quest for social progress that includes mechanisms designed to eliminate unjustifiable inequality. For lawyers and other parties committed to the emerging political will to not only respect fundamental rights, but more broadly improve labour and environmental protection, this book opens abundant avenues that can be pursued in practice and in policy. The volume is based on a selection of papers presented at the 21st World Congress of the International Society for Labour and Social Security Law in Cape Town in 2015.


Book Synopsis Labour Law and Social Progress by : Roger Blanpain

Download or read book Labour Law and Social Progress written by Roger Blanpain and published by Kluwer Law International B.V.. This book was released on 2016-04-22 with total page 346 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For forty years the international watchword has been deregulation of labour law and of social security. Now, however, the rise in unemployment and lack of employment security, the dizzying inequality gulf, and the environmental disasters and mass migrations caused by this deregulation are generating an impetus that defines social justice no longer merely in terms of the equitable distribution of resources, but also – and often primarily – in terms of the just recognition of persons. This collection of incisive essays recognizes that the growing interdependence of all of the people of the earth demands that labour rights are understood as an aspect of human rights, and thus envisaged at the international level. Contributions by twenty outstanding labour law scholars from a range of countries worldwide provide in-depth analysis of such aspects of the debate as the following: – collective action in the interests of market effectiveness as well as fair outcomes for workers; - right to strike; - resilience of trade unions and collective bargaining as mechanisms of labour market regulation; - importance of national policy, despite the influence of global market forces, in shaping national outcomes; - work as the locus of the relationship between humans and nature; - search for a legal foundation for corporate social responsibility; - litigation as an alternative to collective bargaining; - the role of collective labour relations for immigrants and disabled people; - lessons that developed countries could learn from mechanisms pioneered in developing countries in coping with conditions of austerity; and - the trap of soft law and of declarations of intent that weigh lightly in the face of the power of the interests at play in international trade. The essays take stock of the dimensions of the current situation and also explore paths leading to a better achievement of social justice in labour law. These essays recognize that economic development and the pursuit of social justice are interwoven in a quest for social progress that includes mechanisms designed to eliminate unjustifiable inequality. For lawyers and other parties committed to the emerging political will to not only respect fundamental rights, but more broadly improve labour and environmental protection, this book opens abundant avenues that can be pursued in practice and in policy. The volume is based on a selection of papers presented at the 21st World Congress of the International Society for Labour and Social Security Law in Cape Town in 2015.


International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis

International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis

Author: Laurent Ferrara

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2018-06-13

Total Pages: 298

ISBN-13: 3319790757

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This book collects selected articles addressing several currently debated issues in the field of international macroeconomics. They focus on the role of the central banks in the debate on how to come to terms with the long-term decline in productivity growth, insufficient aggregate demand, high economic uncertainty and growing inequalities following the global financial crisis. Central banks are of considerable importance in this debate since understanding the sluggishness of the recovery process as well as its implications for the natural interest rate are key to assessing output gaps and the monetary policy stance. The authors argue that a more dynamic domestic and external aggregate demand helps to raise the inflation rate, easing the constraint deriving from the zero lower bound and allowing monetary policy to depart from its current ultra-accommodative position. Beyond macroeconomic factors, the book also discusses a supportive financial environment as a precondition for the rebound of global economic activity, stressing that understanding capital flows is a prerequisite for economic-policy decisions.


Book Synopsis International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis by : Laurent Ferrara

Download or read book International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis written by Laurent Ferrara and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-06-13 with total page 298 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book collects selected articles addressing several currently debated issues in the field of international macroeconomics. They focus on the role of the central banks in the debate on how to come to terms with the long-term decline in productivity growth, insufficient aggregate demand, high economic uncertainty and growing inequalities following the global financial crisis. Central banks are of considerable importance in this debate since understanding the sluggishness of the recovery process as well as its implications for the natural interest rate are key to assessing output gaps and the monetary policy stance. The authors argue that a more dynamic domestic and external aggregate demand helps to raise the inflation rate, easing the constraint deriving from the zero lower bound and allowing monetary policy to depart from its current ultra-accommodative position. Beyond macroeconomic factors, the book also discusses a supportive financial environment as a precondition for the rebound of global economic activity, stressing that understanding capital flows is a prerequisite for economic-policy decisions.


Causes and Consequences of Income Inequality

Causes and Consequences of Income Inequality

Author: Ms.Era Dabla-Norris

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2015-06-15

Total Pages: 39

ISBN-13: 1513547437

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This paper analyzes the extent of income inequality from a global perspective, its drivers, and what to do about it. The drivers of inequality vary widely amongst countries, with some common drivers being the skill premium associated with technical change and globalization, weakening protection for labor, and lack of financial inclusion in developing countries. We find that increasing the income share of the poor and the middle class actually increases growth while a rising income share of the top 20 percent results in lower growth—that is, when the rich get richer, benefits do not trickle down. This suggests that policies need to be country specific but should focus on raising the income share of the poor, and ensuring there is no hollowing out of the middle class. To tackle inequality, financial inclusion is imperative in emerging and developing countries while in advanced economies, policies should focus on raising human capital and skills and making tax systems more progressive.


Book Synopsis Causes and Consequences of Income Inequality by : Ms.Era Dabla-Norris

Download or read book Causes and Consequences of Income Inequality written by Ms.Era Dabla-Norris and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-06-15 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyzes the extent of income inequality from a global perspective, its drivers, and what to do about it. The drivers of inequality vary widely amongst countries, with some common drivers being the skill premium associated with technical change and globalization, weakening protection for labor, and lack of financial inclusion in developing countries. We find that increasing the income share of the poor and the middle class actually increases growth while a rising income share of the top 20 percent results in lower growth—that is, when the rich get richer, benefits do not trickle down. This suggests that policies need to be country specific but should focus on raising the income share of the poor, and ensuring there is no hollowing out of the middle class. To tackle inequality, financial inclusion is imperative in emerging and developing countries while in advanced economies, policies should focus on raising human capital and skills and making tax systems more progressive.


The Global Social Crisis

The Global Social Crisis

Author: United Nations

Publisher: UN

Published: 2011

Total Pages: 136

ISBN-13:

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During 2008-2009, the world experienced its worst financial and economic crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s. The crisis followed the effects of the food and fuel price hikes in 2007 and 2008. In 2009, global output contracted by 2 per cent. This 2011 Report on the World Social Situation reviews the ongoing adverse social consequences of these crises after an overview of its causes and transmission.


Book Synopsis The Global Social Crisis by : United Nations

Download or read book The Global Social Crisis written by United Nations and published by UN. This book was released on 2011 with total page 136 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: During 2008-2009, the world experienced its worst financial and economic crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s. The crisis followed the effects of the food and fuel price hikes in 2007 and 2008. In 2009, global output contracted by 2 per cent. This 2011 Report on the World Social Situation reviews the ongoing adverse social consequences of these crises after an overview of its causes and transmission.


The Financial Crisis Inquiry Report

The Financial Crisis Inquiry Report

Author: Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission

Publisher: Cosimo, Inc.

Published: 2011-05-01

Total Pages: 692

ISBN-13: 1616405414

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The Financial Crisis Inquiry Report, published by the U.S. Government and the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission in early 2011, is the official government report on the United States financial collapse and the review of major financial institutions that bankrupted and failed, or would have without help from the government. The commission and the report were implemented after Congress passed an act in 2009 to review and prevent fraudulent activity. The report details, among other things, the periods before, during, and after the crisis, what led up to it, and analyses of subprime mortgage lending, credit expansion and banking policies, the collapse of companies like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and the federal bailouts of Lehman and AIG. It also discusses the aftermath of the fallout and our current state. This report should be of interest to anyone concerned about the financial situation in the U.S. and around the world.THE FINANCIAL CRISIS INQUIRY COMMISSION is an independent, bi-partisan, government-appointed panel of 10 people that was created to "examine the causes, domestic and global, of the current financial and economic crisis in the United States." It was established as part of the Fraud Enforcement and Recovery Act of 2009. The commission consisted of private citizens with expertise in economics and finance, banking, housing, market regulation, and consumer protection. They examined and reported on "the collapse of major financial institutions that failed or would have failed if not for exceptional assistance from the government."News Dissector DANNY SCHECHTER is a journalist, blogger and filmmaker. He has been reporting on economic crises since the 1980's when he was with ABC News. His film In Debt We Trust warned of the economic meltdown in 2006. He has since written three books on the subject including Plunder: Investigating Our Economic Calamity (Cosimo Books, 2008), and The Crime Of Our Time: Why Wall Street Is Not Too Big to Jail (Disinfo Books, 2011), a companion to his latest film Plunder The Crime Of Our Time. He can be reached online at www.newsdissector.com.


Book Synopsis The Financial Crisis Inquiry Report by : Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission

Download or read book The Financial Crisis Inquiry Report written by Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission and published by Cosimo, Inc.. This book was released on 2011-05-01 with total page 692 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Financial Crisis Inquiry Report, published by the U.S. Government and the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission in early 2011, is the official government report on the United States financial collapse and the review of major financial institutions that bankrupted and failed, or would have without help from the government. The commission and the report were implemented after Congress passed an act in 2009 to review and prevent fraudulent activity. The report details, among other things, the periods before, during, and after the crisis, what led up to it, and analyses of subprime mortgage lending, credit expansion and banking policies, the collapse of companies like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and the federal bailouts of Lehman and AIG. It also discusses the aftermath of the fallout and our current state. This report should be of interest to anyone concerned about the financial situation in the U.S. and around the world.THE FINANCIAL CRISIS INQUIRY COMMISSION is an independent, bi-partisan, government-appointed panel of 10 people that was created to "examine the causes, domestic and global, of the current financial and economic crisis in the United States." It was established as part of the Fraud Enforcement and Recovery Act of 2009. The commission consisted of private citizens with expertise in economics and finance, banking, housing, market regulation, and consumer protection. They examined and reported on "the collapse of major financial institutions that failed or would have failed if not for exceptional assistance from the government."News Dissector DANNY SCHECHTER is a journalist, blogger and filmmaker. He has been reporting on economic crises since the 1980's when he was with ABC News. His film In Debt We Trust warned of the economic meltdown in 2006. He has since written three books on the subject including Plunder: Investigating Our Economic Calamity (Cosimo Books, 2008), and The Crime Of Our Time: Why Wall Street Is Not Too Big to Jail (Disinfo Books, 2011), a companion to his latest film Plunder The Crime Of Our Time. He can be reached online at www.newsdissector.com.


Shock Waves

Shock Waves

Author: Stephane Hallegatte

Publisher: World Bank Publications

Published: 2015-11-23

Total Pages: 227

ISBN-13: 1464806748

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Ending poverty and stabilizing climate change will be two unprecedented global achievements and two major steps toward sustainable development. But the two objectives cannot be considered in isolation: they need to be jointly tackled through an integrated strategy. This report brings together those two objectives and explores how they can more easily be achieved if considered together. It examines the potential impact of climate change and climate policies on poverty reduction. It also provides guidance on how to create a “win-win†? situation so that climate change policies contribute to poverty reduction and poverty-reduction policies contribute to climate change mitigation and resilience building. The key finding of the report is that climate change represents a significant obstacle to the sustained eradication of poverty, but future impacts on poverty are determined by policy choices: rapid, inclusive, and climate-informed development can prevent most short-term impacts whereas immediate pro-poor, emissions-reduction policies can drastically limit long-term ones.


Book Synopsis Shock Waves by : Stephane Hallegatte

Download or read book Shock Waves written by Stephane Hallegatte and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2015-11-23 with total page 227 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Ending poverty and stabilizing climate change will be two unprecedented global achievements and two major steps toward sustainable development. But the two objectives cannot be considered in isolation: they need to be jointly tackled through an integrated strategy. This report brings together those two objectives and explores how they can more easily be achieved if considered together. It examines the potential impact of climate change and climate policies on poverty reduction. It also provides guidance on how to create a “win-win†? situation so that climate change policies contribute to poverty reduction and poverty-reduction policies contribute to climate change mitigation and resilience building. The key finding of the report is that climate change represents a significant obstacle to the sustained eradication of poverty, but future impacts on poverty are determined by policy choices: rapid, inclusive, and climate-informed development can prevent most short-term impacts whereas immediate pro-poor, emissions-reduction policies can drastically limit long-term ones.