The Economics and Finance of Commodity Price Shocks

The Economics and Finance of Commodity Price Shocks

Author: Mikidadu Mohammed

Publisher: Routledge

Published: 2021-11-25

Total Pages: 226

ISBN-13: 1000485188

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The behaviour of commodity prices never ceases to marvel economists, financial analysts, industry experts, and policymakers. Unexpected swings in commodity prices used to occur infrequently but have now become a permanent feature of global commodity markets. This book is about modelling commodity price shocks. It is intended to provide insights into the theoretical, conceptual, and empirical modelling of the underlying causes of global commodity price shocks. Three main objectives motivated the writing of this book. First, to provide a variety of modelling frameworks for documenting the frequency and intensity of commodity price shocks. Second, to evaluate existing approaches used for forecasting large movements in future commodity prices. Third, to cover a wide range and aspects of global commodities including currencies, rare–hard–lustrous transition metals, agricultural commodities, energy, and health pandemics. Some attempts have already been made towards modelling commodity price shocks. However, most tend to narrowly focus on a subset of commodity markets, i.e., agricultural commodities market and/or the energy market. In this book, the author moves the needle forward by operationalizing different models, which allow researchers to identify the underlying causes and effects of commodity price shocks. Readers also learn about different commodity price forecasting models. The author presents the topics to readers assuming less prior or specialist knowledge. Thus, the book is accessible to industry analysts, researchers, undergraduate and graduate students in economics and financial economics, academic and professional economists, investors, and financial professionals working in different sectors of the commodity markets. Another advantage of the book’s approach is that readers are not only exposed to several innovative modelling techniques to add to their modelling toolbox but are also exposed to diverse empirical applications of the techniques presented.


Book Synopsis The Economics and Finance of Commodity Price Shocks by : Mikidadu Mohammed

Download or read book The Economics and Finance of Commodity Price Shocks written by Mikidadu Mohammed and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2021-11-25 with total page 226 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The behaviour of commodity prices never ceases to marvel economists, financial analysts, industry experts, and policymakers. Unexpected swings in commodity prices used to occur infrequently but have now become a permanent feature of global commodity markets. This book is about modelling commodity price shocks. It is intended to provide insights into the theoretical, conceptual, and empirical modelling of the underlying causes of global commodity price shocks. Three main objectives motivated the writing of this book. First, to provide a variety of modelling frameworks for documenting the frequency and intensity of commodity price shocks. Second, to evaluate existing approaches used for forecasting large movements in future commodity prices. Third, to cover a wide range and aspects of global commodities including currencies, rare–hard–lustrous transition metals, agricultural commodities, energy, and health pandemics. Some attempts have already been made towards modelling commodity price shocks. However, most tend to narrowly focus on a subset of commodity markets, i.e., agricultural commodities market and/or the energy market. In this book, the author moves the needle forward by operationalizing different models, which allow researchers to identify the underlying causes and effects of commodity price shocks. Readers also learn about different commodity price forecasting models. The author presents the topics to readers assuming less prior or specialist knowledge. Thus, the book is accessible to industry analysts, researchers, undergraduate and graduate students in economics and financial economics, academic and professional economists, investors, and financial professionals working in different sectors of the commodity markets. Another advantage of the book’s approach is that readers are not only exposed to several innovative modelling techniques to add to their modelling toolbox but are also exposed to diverse empirical applications of the techniques presented.


Commodity Price Shocks and Financial Sector Fragility

Commodity Price Shocks and Financial Sector Fragility

Author: Mr.Tidiane Kinda

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2016-02-01

Total Pages: 48

ISBN-13: 1484398939

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This paper investigates the impact of commodity price shocks on financial sector fragility. Using a large sample of 71 commodity exporters among emerging and developing economies, it shows that negative shocks to commodity prices tend to weaken the financial sector, with larger shocks having more pronounced impacts. More specifically, negative commodity price shocks are associated with higher non-performing loans, bank costs and banking crises, while they reduce bank profits, liquidity, and provisions to nonperforming loans. These adverse effects tend to occur in countries with poor quality of governance, weak fiscal space, as well as those that do not have a sovereign wealth fund, do not implement macro-prudential policies and do not have a diversified export base. These findings are robust to a battery of robustness checks.


Book Synopsis Commodity Price Shocks and Financial Sector Fragility by : Mr.Tidiane Kinda

Download or read book Commodity Price Shocks and Financial Sector Fragility written by Mr.Tidiane Kinda and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-02-01 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates the impact of commodity price shocks on financial sector fragility. Using a large sample of 71 commodity exporters among emerging and developing economies, it shows that negative shocks to commodity prices tend to weaken the financial sector, with larger shocks having more pronounced impacts. More specifically, negative commodity price shocks are associated with higher non-performing loans, bank costs and banking crises, while they reduce bank profits, liquidity, and provisions to nonperforming loans. These adverse effects tend to occur in countries with poor quality of governance, weak fiscal space, as well as those that do not have a sovereign wealth fund, do not implement macro-prudential policies and do not have a diversified export base. These findings are robust to a battery of robustness checks.


Commodity Price Shocks and International Finance

Commodity Price Shocks and International Finance

Author: Pang-hua Kevin Chang

Publisher:

Published: 1988

Total Pages: 314

ISBN-13:

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Book Synopsis Commodity Price Shocks and International Finance by : Pang-hua Kevin Chang

Download or read book Commodity Price Shocks and International Finance written by Pang-hua Kevin Chang and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page 314 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:


Commodity Prices and Markets

Commodity Prices and Markets

Author: Takatoshi Ito

Publisher: University of Chicago Press

Published: 2011-03

Total Pages: 346

ISBN-13: 0226386899

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Fluctuations of commodity prices, most notably of oil, capture considerable attention and have been tied to important economic effects. This book advances our understanding of the consequences of these fluctuations, providing both general analysis and a particular focus on the countries of the Pacific Rim.


Book Synopsis Commodity Prices and Markets by : Takatoshi Ito

Download or read book Commodity Prices and Markets written by Takatoshi Ito and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2011-03 with total page 346 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fluctuations of commodity prices, most notably of oil, capture considerable attention and have been tied to important economic effects. This book advances our understanding of the consequences of these fluctuations, providing both general analysis and a particular focus on the countries of the Pacific Rim.


Commodity Prices and Markets

Commodity Prices and Markets

Author: Takatoshi Ito

Publisher: University of Chicago Press

Published: 2011-02-15

Total Pages: 352

ISBN-13: 0226386902

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Fluctuations of commodity prices, most notably of oil, capture considerable attention and have been tied to important economic effects, such as inflation and low rates of economic growth. Commodity Prices and Markets advances our understanding of the consequences of these fluctuations, providing both general analysis and a particular focus on the countries of the Pacific Rim. The volume addresses three distinct subjects: the difficulties in forecasting commodity prices, the effects of exogenous commodity price shocks on the domestic economy, and the relationship between price shocks and monetary policy. The ability to forecast commodity prices is difficult but of great importance to businesses and governments, and this volume will be invaluable to professionals and policy makers interested in the field.


Book Synopsis Commodity Prices and Markets by : Takatoshi Ito

Download or read book Commodity Prices and Markets written by Takatoshi Ito and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2011-02-15 with total page 352 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fluctuations of commodity prices, most notably of oil, capture considerable attention and have been tied to important economic effects, such as inflation and low rates of economic growth. Commodity Prices and Markets advances our understanding of the consequences of these fluctuations, providing both general analysis and a particular focus on the countries of the Pacific Rim. The volume addresses three distinct subjects: the difficulties in forecasting commodity prices, the effects of exogenous commodity price shocks on the domestic economy, and the relationship between price shocks and monetary policy. The ability to forecast commodity prices is difficult but of great importance to businesses and governments, and this volume will be invaluable to professionals and policy makers interested in the field.


The Economics and Finance of Commodity Price Shocks

The Economics and Finance of Commodity Price Shocks

Author: Mikidadu Mohammed

Publisher: Routledge

Published: 2021-11-25

Total Pages: 215

ISBN-13: 1000485129

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The behaviour of commodity prices never ceases to marvel economists, financial analysts, industry experts, and policymakers. Unexpected swings in commodity prices used to occur infrequently but have now become a permanent feature of global commodity markets. This book is about modelling commodity price shocks. It is intended to provide insights into the theoretical, conceptual, and empirical modelling of the underlying causes of global commodity price shocks. Three main objectives motivated the writing of this book. First, to provide a variety of modelling frameworks for documenting the frequency and intensity of commodity price shocks. Second, to evaluate existing approaches used for forecasting large movements in future commodity prices. Third, to cover a wide range and aspects of global commodities including currencies, rare–hard–lustrous transition metals, agricultural commodities, energy, and health pandemics. Some attempts have already been made towards modelling commodity price shocks. However, most tend to narrowly focus on a subset of commodity markets, i.e., agricultural commodities market and/or the energy market. In this book, the author moves the needle forward by operationalizing different models, which allow researchers to identify the underlying causes and effects of commodity price shocks. Readers also learn about different commodity price forecasting models. The author presents the topics to readers assuming less prior or specialist knowledge. Thus, the book is accessible to industry analysts, researchers, undergraduate and graduate students in economics and financial economics, academic and professional economists, investors, and financial professionals working in different sectors of the commodity markets. Another advantage of the book’s approach is that readers are not only exposed to several innovative modelling techniques to add to their modelling toolbox but are also exposed to diverse empirical applications of the techniques presented.


Book Synopsis The Economics and Finance of Commodity Price Shocks by : Mikidadu Mohammed

Download or read book The Economics and Finance of Commodity Price Shocks written by Mikidadu Mohammed and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2021-11-25 with total page 215 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The behaviour of commodity prices never ceases to marvel economists, financial analysts, industry experts, and policymakers. Unexpected swings in commodity prices used to occur infrequently but have now become a permanent feature of global commodity markets. This book is about modelling commodity price shocks. It is intended to provide insights into the theoretical, conceptual, and empirical modelling of the underlying causes of global commodity price shocks. Three main objectives motivated the writing of this book. First, to provide a variety of modelling frameworks for documenting the frequency and intensity of commodity price shocks. Second, to evaluate existing approaches used for forecasting large movements in future commodity prices. Third, to cover a wide range and aspects of global commodities including currencies, rare–hard–lustrous transition metals, agricultural commodities, energy, and health pandemics. Some attempts have already been made towards modelling commodity price shocks. However, most tend to narrowly focus on a subset of commodity markets, i.e., agricultural commodities market and/or the energy market. In this book, the author moves the needle forward by operationalizing different models, which allow researchers to identify the underlying causes and effects of commodity price shocks. Readers also learn about different commodity price forecasting models. The author presents the topics to readers assuming less prior or specialist knowledge. Thus, the book is accessible to industry analysts, researchers, undergraduate and graduate students in economics and financial economics, academic and professional economists, investors, and financial professionals working in different sectors of the commodity markets. Another advantage of the book’s approach is that readers are not only exposed to several innovative modelling techniques to add to their modelling toolbox but are also exposed to diverse empirical applications of the techniques presented.


Branching Networks and Geographic Contagion of Commodity Price Shocks

Branching Networks and Geographic Contagion of Commodity Price Shocks

Author: Teng Wang

Publisher:

Published: 2020

Total Pages:

ISBN-13:

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Book Synopsis Branching Networks and Geographic Contagion of Commodity Price Shocks by : Teng Wang

Download or read book Branching Networks and Geographic Contagion of Commodity Price Shocks written by Teng Wang and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:


Commodity Price Shocks and Imperfectly Credible Macroeconomic Policies in Commodity-Exporting Small Open Economies

Commodity Price Shocks and Imperfectly Credible Macroeconomic Policies in Commodity-Exporting Small Open Economies

Author: Juan Pablo Medina Guzman

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2014-02-13

Total Pages: 43

ISBN-13: 1484306392

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In this paper, we analyze how lack of credibility and transparency of monetary and fiscal policies undermines the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies to isolate the economy from commodity price fluctuations. We develop a general equilibrium model for a commodity-exporting economy where macro policies are conducted through rules. We show that the responses of output, aggregate demand, and inflation to an increase in commodity price are magnified when these rules are imperfectly credible and lack transparency. If policies are imperfectly credible, then transparency helps private agents to learn the systematic behavior of the autorities, reducing the effects of commodity prices shocks. Coherent with the model, we show cross-country evidence that monetary policy transparency and fiscal credibility reduce the incidence of export price volatility on output volatility. Also, our results indicate that having an explicit fiscal rule and an inflation targeting regime contribute to isolate the economy from terms of trade fluctuations.


Book Synopsis Commodity Price Shocks and Imperfectly Credible Macroeconomic Policies in Commodity-Exporting Small Open Economies by : Juan Pablo Medina Guzman

Download or read book Commodity Price Shocks and Imperfectly Credible Macroeconomic Policies in Commodity-Exporting Small Open Economies written by Juan Pablo Medina Guzman and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-02-13 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper, we analyze how lack of credibility and transparency of monetary and fiscal policies undermines the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies to isolate the economy from commodity price fluctuations. We develop a general equilibrium model for a commodity-exporting economy where macro policies are conducted through rules. We show that the responses of output, aggregate demand, and inflation to an increase in commodity price are magnified when these rules are imperfectly credible and lack transparency. If policies are imperfectly credible, then transparency helps private agents to learn the systematic behavior of the autorities, reducing the effects of commodity prices shocks. Coherent with the model, we show cross-country evidence that monetary policy transparency and fiscal credibility reduce the incidence of export price volatility on output volatility. Also, our results indicate that having an explicit fiscal rule and an inflation targeting regime contribute to isolate the economy from terms of trade fluctuations.


The Influence of Commodity Price Shocks on Share Prices

The Influence of Commodity Price Shocks on Share Prices

Author: Philipp Heilmann

Publisher: GRIN Verlag

Published: 2012-03-19

Total Pages: 69

ISBN-13: 3656153639

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Seminar paper from the year 2011 in the subject Economics - Finance, grade: 1,3, University of Groningen (Faculty of Economics and Business), language: English, abstract: This paper analyses the influence of commodity price shocks on companies' firm value. Two timeframes of shocks on the commodities copper, aluminium as well as two rare earth elements, neodymium and lanthanum, were studied on their effects on stock prices. Companies have been selected according to their industry, their size, country of origin and commodity exposure. Unique issues in this work are the focus on commodity price shocks and the pre- selection of companies, where the chosen commodities are assumingly key input factors. Therefore this paper attempts to shed new light on the importance of commodity price exposure for the firm value of companies.


Book Synopsis The Influence of Commodity Price Shocks on Share Prices by : Philipp Heilmann

Download or read book The Influence of Commodity Price Shocks on Share Prices written by Philipp Heilmann and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2012-03-19 with total page 69 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Seminar paper from the year 2011 in the subject Economics - Finance, grade: 1,3, University of Groningen (Faculty of Economics and Business), language: English, abstract: This paper analyses the influence of commodity price shocks on companies' firm value. Two timeframes of shocks on the commodities copper, aluminium as well as two rare earth elements, neodymium and lanthanum, were studied on their effects on stock prices. Companies have been selected according to their industry, their size, country of origin and commodity exposure. Unique issues in this work are the focus on commodity price shocks and the pre- selection of companies, where the chosen commodities are assumingly key input factors. Therefore this paper attempts to shed new light on the importance of commodity price exposure for the firm value of companies.


Commodity Price Movements and Banking Crises

Commodity Price Movements and Banking Crises

Author: Mr.Markus Eberhardt

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2018-07-06

Total Pages: 53

ISBN-13: 1484367820

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We develop an empirical model to predict banking crises in a sample of 60 low-income countries (LICs) over the 1981-2015 period. Given the recent emergence of financial sector stress associated with low commodity prices in several LICs, we assign price movements in primary commodities a key role in our model. Accounting for changes in commodity prices significantly increases the predictive power of the model. The commodity price effect is economically substantial and robust to the inclusion of a wide array of potential drivers of banking crises. We confirm that net capital inflows increase the likelihood of a crisis; however, in contrast to recent findings for advanced and emerging economies, credit growth and capital flow surges play no significant role in predicting banking crises in LICs.


Book Synopsis Commodity Price Movements and Banking Crises by : Mr.Markus Eberhardt

Download or read book Commodity Price Movements and Banking Crises written by Mr.Markus Eberhardt and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-07-06 with total page 53 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We develop an empirical model to predict banking crises in a sample of 60 low-income countries (LICs) over the 1981-2015 period. Given the recent emergence of financial sector stress associated with low commodity prices in several LICs, we assign price movements in primary commodities a key role in our model. Accounting for changes in commodity prices significantly increases the predictive power of the model. The commodity price effect is economically substantial and robust to the inclusion of a wide array of potential drivers of banking crises. We confirm that net capital inflows increase the likelihood of a crisis; however, in contrast to recent findings for advanced and emerging economies, credit growth and capital flow surges play no significant role in predicting banking crises in LICs.