The Escape from Balance Sheet Recession and the QE Trap

The Escape from Balance Sheet Recession and the QE Trap

Author: Richard C. Koo

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

Published: 2014-10-27

Total Pages: 353

ISBN-13: 1119028124

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Compare global experiences during the balance sheet recession and find out what is needed for a full recovery The Escape from Balance Sheet Recession and the QE Trap details the many hidden dangers remaining as the world slowly recovers from the balance sheet recession of 2008. Author and leading economist Richard Koo explains the unique political and economic pitfalls that stand in the way of recovery from this rare type of recession that was largely overlooked by economists. Koo anticipated the current predicament in the West long before others and issued warnings in his previous books: Balance Sheet Recession and The Holy Grail of Macroeconomics. This new book illustrates how history is repeating itself in Europe while the United States, which learnt from the Japanese experience, is doing better by avoiding the fiscal cliff. However, because of the liberal dosage of quantitative easing already implemented, the United States, the United Kingdom, and Japan may face a treacherous path to normalcy in what Koo calls the QE Trap. He argues that it is necessary to understand balance sheet recession in order to resolve the Eurozone crisis, particularly the competitiveness problems. Koo issues warnings against those who are too ready to argue for structural reforms when the problems are actually with balance sheets. He re-examines Japan's two decades of experiences with this rare recession and offers an insider view on the Abenomics. On China, readers will gain a very different historical perspective as Koo argues that western commentators have forgotten their own history when they talk about the re-balancing of the Chinese economy. Learn from Japan which experienced the same predicament afflicting the West fifteen years earlier Discover how unwinding of quantitative easing will affect the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, as well as the emerging world Examine solutions to the Eurozone problems caused by two balance sheet recessions eight years apart Gain insight into China's problems from the West's own experiences with urbanisation Koo, who developed the concept of balance sheet recession based on Japan's experience, took the revolution in macroeconomics started by John Maynard Keynes in 1936 to a new height. The Escape from Balance Sheet Recession and the QE Trap offers the world cure for balance sheet recession.


Book Synopsis The Escape from Balance Sheet Recession and the QE Trap by : Richard C. Koo

Download or read book The Escape from Balance Sheet Recession and the QE Trap written by Richard C. Koo and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2014-10-27 with total page 353 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Compare global experiences during the balance sheet recession and find out what is needed for a full recovery The Escape from Balance Sheet Recession and the QE Trap details the many hidden dangers remaining as the world slowly recovers from the balance sheet recession of 2008. Author and leading economist Richard Koo explains the unique political and economic pitfalls that stand in the way of recovery from this rare type of recession that was largely overlooked by economists. Koo anticipated the current predicament in the West long before others and issued warnings in his previous books: Balance Sheet Recession and The Holy Grail of Macroeconomics. This new book illustrates how history is repeating itself in Europe while the United States, which learnt from the Japanese experience, is doing better by avoiding the fiscal cliff. However, because of the liberal dosage of quantitative easing already implemented, the United States, the United Kingdom, and Japan may face a treacherous path to normalcy in what Koo calls the QE Trap. He argues that it is necessary to understand balance sheet recession in order to resolve the Eurozone crisis, particularly the competitiveness problems. Koo issues warnings against those who are too ready to argue for structural reforms when the problems are actually with balance sheets. He re-examines Japan's two decades of experiences with this rare recession and offers an insider view on the Abenomics. On China, readers will gain a very different historical perspective as Koo argues that western commentators have forgotten their own history when they talk about the re-balancing of the Chinese economy. Learn from Japan which experienced the same predicament afflicting the West fifteen years earlier Discover how unwinding of quantitative easing will affect the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, as well as the emerging world Examine solutions to the Eurozone problems caused by two balance sheet recessions eight years apart Gain insight into China's problems from the West's own experiences with urbanisation Koo, who developed the concept of balance sheet recession based on Japan's experience, took the revolution in macroeconomics started by John Maynard Keynes in 1936 to a new height. The Escape from Balance Sheet Recession and the QE Trap offers the world cure for balance sheet recession.


The Holy Grail of Macroeconomics

The Holy Grail of Macroeconomics

Author: Richard C. Koo

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

Published: 2011-11-21

Total Pages: 373

ISBN-13: 1118179188

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The revised edition of this highly acclaimed work presents crucial lessons from Japan's recession that could aid the US and other economies as they struggle to recover from the current financial crisis. This book is about Japan's 15-year long recession and how it affected current theoretical thinking about its causes and cures. It has a detailed explanation on what happened to Japan, but the discoveries made are so far-reaching that a large portion of economics literature will have to be modified to accommodate another half to the macroeconomic spectrum of possibilities that conventional theorists have overlooked. The author developed the idea of yin and yang business cycles where the conventional world of profit maximization is the yang and the world of balance sheet recession, where companies are minimizing debt, is the yin. Once so divided, many varied theories developed in macro economics since the 1930s can be nicely categorized into a single comprehensive theory- The Holy Grail of Macro Economics


Book Synopsis The Holy Grail of Macroeconomics by : Richard C. Koo

Download or read book The Holy Grail of Macroeconomics written by Richard C. Koo and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-11-21 with total page 373 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The revised edition of this highly acclaimed work presents crucial lessons from Japan's recession that could aid the US and other economies as they struggle to recover from the current financial crisis. This book is about Japan's 15-year long recession and how it affected current theoretical thinking about its causes and cures. It has a detailed explanation on what happened to Japan, but the discoveries made are so far-reaching that a large portion of economics literature will have to be modified to accommodate another half to the macroeconomic spectrum of possibilities that conventional theorists have overlooked. The author developed the idea of yin and yang business cycles where the conventional world of profit maximization is the yang and the world of balance sheet recession, where companies are minimizing debt, is the yin. Once so divided, many varied theories developed in macro economics since the 1930s can be nicely categorized into a single comprehensive theory- The Holy Grail of Macro Economics


The Other Half of Macroeconomics and the Fate of Globalization

The Other Half of Macroeconomics and the Fate of Globalization

Author: Richard C. Koo

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

Published: 2018-02-12

Total Pages: 392

ISBN-13: 111948216X

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Get a new perspective from the ‘other half’ of macroeconomics The failure of the vast majority of economists in government, academia and the private sector to predict either the post-2008 Great Recession or the degree of its severity has raised serious credibility issues for the profession. The repeated failures of central banks and other policymakers in all advanced countries to meet their inflation or growth targets in spite of astronomical monetary easing, have left the public rightfully suspicious of the establishment and its economists. The Other Half of Macroeconomics and the Fate of Globalization elucidates what was missing in economics all along and what changes are needed to make the profession relevant to the economic challenges of today. Once the other half of macroeconomics is understood both as a post-bubble phenomenon and as a phase of post-industrial economies, it should be possible for policy makers to devise appropriate measures to overcome difficulties advanced countries are facing today such as stagnation and income inequality. • Shows how it’s possible to devise appropriate policy response to slow wage and productivity growth in these economies • Demonstrates that the effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policy changes as an economy undergoes different stages of development • Argues that tax rules, regulations and even educational system must be revised to match the need of pursued (by emerging nations) countries • Explains the 200-year process of economic development and where that process is taking all of us Inside, Richard C. Koo offers a completely new way of looking at the economic predicament of advanced countries today.


Book Synopsis The Other Half of Macroeconomics and the Fate of Globalization by : Richard C. Koo

Download or read book The Other Half of Macroeconomics and the Fate of Globalization written by Richard C. Koo and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2018-02-12 with total page 392 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Get a new perspective from the ‘other half’ of macroeconomics The failure of the vast majority of economists in government, academia and the private sector to predict either the post-2008 Great Recession or the degree of its severity has raised serious credibility issues for the profession. The repeated failures of central banks and other policymakers in all advanced countries to meet their inflation or growth targets in spite of astronomical monetary easing, have left the public rightfully suspicious of the establishment and its economists. The Other Half of Macroeconomics and the Fate of Globalization elucidates what was missing in economics all along and what changes are needed to make the profession relevant to the economic challenges of today. Once the other half of macroeconomics is understood both as a post-bubble phenomenon and as a phase of post-industrial economies, it should be possible for policy makers to devise appropriate measures to overcome difficulties advanced countries are facing today such as stagnation and income inequality. • Shows how it’s possible to devise appropriate policy response to slow wage and productivity growth in these economies • Demonstrates that the effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policy changes as an economy undergoes different stages of development • Argues that tax rules, regulations and even educational system must be revised to match the need of pursued (by emerging nations) countries • Explains the 200-year process of economic development and where that process is taking all of us Inside, Richard C. Koo offers a completely new way of looking at the economic predicament of advanced countries today.


Quantitative Easing

Quantitative Easing

Author: Jonathan Ashworth

Publisher:

Published: 2020-06-30

Total Pages: 192

ISBN-13: 9781788212229

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This book offers a thorough and perspicacious analysis of quantitative easing, which has become a recovery method of last resort. While it was successful in stimulating growth, this strategy remains controversial and continues to promote widespread debate in economics, financial, and political economy circless.


Book Synopsis Quantitative Easing by : Jonathan Ashworth

Download or read book Quantitative Easing written by Jonathan Ashworth and published by . This book was released on 2020-06-30 with total page 192 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book offers a thorough and perspicacious analysis of quantitative easing, which has become a recovery method of last resort. While it was successful in stimulating growth, this strategy remains controversial and continues to promote widespread debate in economics, financial, and political economy circless.


Pursued Economy

Pursued Economy

Author: Richard C. Koo

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

Published: 2022-08-01

Total Pages: 516

ISBN-13: 1119984270

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In Pursued Economy: Understanding and Overcoming the Challenging New Realities for Advanced Economies, celebrated economist and thought leader Richard C. Koo dives deep into the failure of traditional economic solutions to address the economic and social problems of post-Great Recession and post-pandemic economies. Starting with the original concepts of balance sheet recessions and global competition for capital, the author explains why the Great Recession lasted for so long and why well-intentioned policies that worked so well in the past are no longer working today. Readers will discover that advanced economies moved from what the author calls the "golden era" to the "pursued era" of economic development long ago, but the policy debate in these countries continues to be informed by golden era assumptions that are no longer relevant but are still taught in universities. That mismatch has led to an over-reliance on monetary policy and an under-reliance on fiscal policy that are distorting economies and worsening inequality in a profoundly transformed world. With many real-world examples from the author's extensive involvement in the policy debate on economic, banking and trade issues in several countries, including the U.S., the book describes the correct policy mix in the pursued era as distinct from that in the golden era. It also explains the challenges central banks face in fighting inflation after a decade of over-reliance on monetary policy that flooded the world’s economies with unprecedented liquidity. Instead of simply assuming the existence of "trend growth rates", this book tackles the issue of economic growth head-on so as to elucidate the symmetry between the drivers of growth and the drivers of recession. It also argues that the fundamental disconnect between free trade and free capital movements must be addressed in order to maximize the gains from globalization while minimizing its costs. Written in simple language and with a great sense of urgency, Pursued Economy should be of interest to anyone who is concerned about the global economy, financial stability and geopolitics.


Book Synopsis Pursued Economy by : Richard C. Koo

Download or read book Pursued Economy written by Richard C. Koo and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2022-08-01 with total page 516 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In Pursued Economy: Understanding and Overcoming the Challenging New Realities for Advanced Economies, celebrated economist and thought leader Richard C. Koo dives deep into the failure of traditional economic solutions to address the economic and social problems of post-Great Recession and post-pandemic economies. Starting with the original concepts of balance sheet recessions and global competition for capital, the author explains why the Great Recession lasted for so long and why well-intentioned policies that worked so well in the past are no longer working today. Readers will discover that advanced economies moved from what the author calls the "golden era" to the "pursued era" of economic development long ago, but the policy debate in these countries continues to be informed by golden era assumptions that are no longer relevant but are still taught in universities. That mismatch has led to an over-reliance on monetary policy and an under-reliance on fiscal policy that are distorting economies and worsening inequality in a profoundly transformed world. With many real-world examples from the author's extensive involvement in the policy debate on economic, banking and trade issues in several countries, including the U.S., the book describes the correct policy mix in the pursued era as distinct from that in the golden era. It also explains the challenges central banks face in fighting inflation after a decade of over-reliance on monetary policy that flooded the world’s economies with unprecedented liquidity. Instead of simply assuming the existence of "trend growth rates", this book tackles the issue of economic growth head-on so as to elucidate the symmetry between the drivers of growth and the drivers of recession. It also argues that the fundamental disconnect between free trade and free capital movements must be addressed in order to maximize the gains from globalization while minimizing its costs. Written in simple language and with a great sense of urgency, Pursued Economy should be of interest to anyone who is concerned about the global economy, financial stability and geopolitics.


Financial Crisis, Bank Behaviour and Credit Crunch

Financial Crisis, Bank Behaviour and Credit Crunch

Author: Stefania P.S. Rossi

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2015-07-29

Total Pages: 193

ISBN-13: 3319174134

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​This book explores some relevant distortions and market failures in financial and banking markets caused by the recent financial crisis and offers important insights to policymakers as well. After having introduced the reader to the economic background behind the origin of the present financial turmoil, the book proposes a distinct angle to look at some macro and microeconomic aspects. The volume discusses whether and to what extent policies, implemented by governments and monetary authorities to countervail bank defaults and avoid a disastrous financial instability, have in some way determined opportunistic conducts (moral hazard), changes in banks’ behaviour, distortive incentives and market failures. Furthermore, the book offers a viewpoint on the effects of the evolution of regulation for the banking sector. Finally, the book assesses how the increase in the cost of funding and the shrinking in credit supply (credit crunch) has modified the financial structure of small and medium firms. To illustrate this, some specific cases at Italian regional level are examined.


Book Synopsis Financial Crisis, Bank Behaviour and Credit Crunch by : Stefania P.S. Rossi

Download or read book Financial Crisis, Bank Behaviour and Credit Crunch written by Stefania P.S. Rossi and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-07-29 with total page 193 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: ​This book explores some relevant distortions and market failures in financial and banking markets caused by the recent financial crisis and offers important insights to policymakers as well. After having introduced the reader to the economic background behind the origin of the present financial turmoil, the book proposes a distinct angle to look at some macro and microeconomic aspects. The volume discusses whether and to what extent policies, implemented by governments and monetary authorities to countervail bank defaults and avoid a disastrous financial instability, have in some way determined opportunistic conducts (moral hazard), changes in banks’ behaviour, distortive incentives and market failures. Furthermore, the book offers a viewpoint on the effects of the evolution of regulation for the banking sector. Finally, the book assesses how the increase in the cost of funding and the shrinking in credit supply (credit crunch) has modified the financial structure of small and medium firms. To illustrate this, some specific cases at Italian regional level are examined.


Rethinking Fiscal Policy after the Crisis

Rethinking Fiscal Policy after the Crisis

Author: Ľudovít Ódor

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 2017-05-18

Total Pages: 615

ISBN-13: 1107160588

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After the financial crisis, what important lessons can we learn from fiscal policy? This book provides an answer to this question.


Book Synopsis Rethinking Fiscal Policy after the Crisis by : Ľudovít Ódor

Download or read book Rethinking Fiscal Policy after the Crisis written by Ľudovít Ódor and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2017-05-18 with total page 615 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: After the financial crisis, what important lessons can we learn from fiscal policy? This book provides an answer to this question.


The Other Half of Macroeconomics and the Fate of Globalization

The Other Half of Macroeconomics and the Fate of Globalization

Author: Richard C. Koo

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

Published: 2018-02-12

Total Pages: 320

ISBN-13: 1119482135

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Get a new perspective from the ‘other half’ of macroeconomics The failure of the vast majority of economists in government, academia and the private sector to predict either the post-2008 Great Recession or the degree of its severity has raised serious credibility issues for the profession. The repeated failures of central banks and other policymakers in all advanced countries to meet their inflation or growth targets in spite of astronomical monetary easing, have left the public rightfully suspicious of the establishment and its economists. The Other Half of Macroeconomics and the Fate of Globalization elucidates what was missing in economics all along and what changes are needed to make the profession relevant to the economic challenges of today. Once the other half of macroeconomics is understood both as a post-bubble phenomenon and as a phase of post-industrial economies, it should be possible for policy makers to devise appropriate measures to overcome difficulties advanced countries are facing today such as stagnation and income inequality. • Shows how it’s possible to devise appropriate policy response to slow wage and productivity growth in these economies • Demonstrates that the effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policy changes as an economy undergoes different stages of development • Argues that tax rules, regulations and even educational system must be revised to match the need of pursued (by emerging nations) countries • Explains the 200-year process of economic development and where that process is taking all of us Inside, Richard C. Koo offers a completely new way of looking at the economic predicament of advanced countries today.


Book Synopsis The Other Half of Macroeconomics and the Fate of Globalization by : Richard C. Koo

Download or read book The Other Half of Macroeconomics and the Fate of Globalization written by Richard C. Koo and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2018-02-12 with total page 320 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Get a new perspective from the ‘other half’ of macroeconomics The failure of the vast majority of economists in government, academia and the private sector to predict either the post-2008 Great Recession or the degree of its severity has raised serious credibility issues for the profession. The repeated failures of central banks and other policymakers in all advanced countries to meet their inflation or growth targets in spite of astronomical monetary easing, have left the public rightfully suspicious of the establishment and its economists. The Other Half of Macroeconomics and the Fate of Globalization elucidates what was missing in economics all along and what changes are needed to make the profession relevant to the economic challenges of today. Once the other half of macroeconomics is understood both as a post-bubble phenomenon and as a phase of post-industrial economies, it should be possible for policy makers to devise appropriate measures to overcome difficulties advanced countries are facing today such as stagnation and income inequality. • Shows how it’s possible to devise appropriate policy response to slow wage and productivity growth in these economies • Demonstrates that the effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policy changes as an economy undergoes different stages of development • Argues that tax rules, regulations and even educational system must be revised to match the need of pursued (by emerging nations) countries • Explains the 200-year process of economic development and where that process is taking all of us Inside, Richard C. Koo offers a completely new way of looking at the economic predicament of advanced countries today.


How to Combat Recession

How to Combat Recession

Author: Laurence Seidman

Publisher: Oxford University Press

Published: 2018-05-07

Total Pages: 224

ISBN-13: 0190462183

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Recessions are a recurring phenomenon and there are repeated debates about how to combat them when the crisis hits and after the economy begins to grow again. Laurence Seidman argues that currently we are not ready to combat the next recession. A recession involves a plunge in aggregate demand for goods and services which compels producers to cut production and employment. Fortunately, a large boost in demand can be achieved by a large fiscal stimulus-primarily a temporary large increase in tax rebates for households plus several fiscal supplements. But fiscal stimulus has always involved a large increase in government debt, something Congress understandably resists. The assumption that a large fiscal stimulus requires an increase in government debt is false, Seidman asserts in this thought-provoking book. In fact, it is astonishingly easy to implement even a very large fiscal stimulus without any increase in government debt. All it takes is for Congress to enact a fiscal stimulus and the Federal Reserve to make a transfer (not loan) to the Treasury roughly equal to the fiscal stimulus so the Treasury doesn't have to borrow. Stimulus-without-debt consists of a transfer (not loan) from the Federal Reserve to the Treasury so that the Treasury does not have to borrow to finance fiscal stimulus enacted by Congress. Seidman explains all aspects of this new way to combat recession, "stimulus-without-debt." He presents evidence that fiscal stimulus works in a recession-it increases aggregate demand which stimulates production and employment. He explains why the fiscal stimulus should consist primarily of tax rebates for households plus several fiscal supplements. His analysis covers basic foundations as well as implications for inflation, central banks, and how to address secular stagnation. When the next recession hits, we will be ready to combat it if we know how to use fiscal stimulus without increasing government debt. Seidman shows us how.


Book Synopsis How to Combat Recession by : Laurence Seidman

Download or read book How to Combat Recession written by Laurence Seidman and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2018-05-07 with total page 224 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recessions are a recurring phenomenon and there are repeated debates about how to combat them when the crisis hits and after the economy begins to grow again. Laurence Seidman argues that currently we are not ready to combat the next recession. A recession involves a plunge in aggregate demand for goods and services which compels producers to cut production and employment. Fortunately, a large boost in demand can be achieved by a large fiscal stimulus-primarily a temporary large increase in tax rebates for households plus several fiscal supplements. But fiscal stimulus has always involved a large increase in government debt, something Congress understandably resists. The assumption that a large fiscal stimulus requires an increase in government debt is false, Seidman asserts in this thought-provoking book. In fact, it is astonishingly easy to implement even a very large fiscal stimulus without any increase in government debt. All it takes is for Congress to enact a fiscal stimulus and the Federal Reserve to make a transfer (not loan) to the Treasury roughly equal to the fiscal stimulus so the Treasury doesn't have to borrow. Stimulus-without-debt consists of a transfer (not loan) from the Federal Reserve to the Treasury so that the Treasury does not have to borrow to finance fiscal stimulus enacted by Congress. Seidman explains all aspects of this new way to combat recession, "stimulus-without-debt." He presents evidence that fiscal stimulus works in a recession-it increases aggregate demand which stimulates production and employment. He explains why the fiscal stimulus should consist primarily of tax rebates for households plus several fiscal supplements. His analysis covers basic foundations as well as implications for inflation, central banks, and how to address secular stagnation. When the next recession hits, we will be ready to combat it if we know how to use fiscal stimulus without increasing government debt. Seidman shows us how.


Paper Dragons

Paper Dragons

Author: Walden Bello

Publisher: Zed Books Ltd.

Published: 2019-08-15

Total Pages: 334

ISBN-13: 1786995999

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Emerging relatively unscathed from the banking crisis of 2008, China has been viewed as a model of both rampant success and fiscal stability. But beneath the surface lies a network of fissures that look likely to erupt into the next big financial crash. A bloated real-estate sector, roller-coaster stock market, and rapidly growing shadow-banking sector have all coalesced to create a perfect storm: one that is in danger of taking the rest of the world’s economy with it. Walden Bello traces our recent history of financial crises – from the bursting of Japan’s ‘bubble economy’ in 1990 to Wall Street in 2008 – taking in their political and human ramifications such as rising inequality and environmental degradation. He not only predicts that China might be the site of the next crash, but that under neoliberalism this will simply keep happening. The only way that we can stop this cycle, Bello argues, is through a fundamental change in the ways that we organise: a shift to cooperative enterprise, respectful of the environment, and which fractures the twin legacies of imperialism and capitalism. Insightful, erudite and passionate, Paper Dragons is a must-read for anyone wishing to prevent the next financial meltdown.


Book Synopsis Paper Dragons by : Walden Bello

Download or read book Paper Dragons written by Walden Bello and published by Zed Books Ltd.. This book was released on 2019-08-15 with total page 334 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Emerging relatively unscathed from the banking crisis of 2008, China has been viewed as a model of both rampant success and fiscal stability. But beneath the surface lies a network of fissures that look likely to erupt into the next big financial crash. A bloated real-estate sector, roller-coaster stock market, and rapidly growing shadow-banking sector have all coalesced to create a perfect storm: one that is in danger of taking the rest of the world’s economy with it. Walden Bello traces our recent history of financial crises – from the bursting of Japan’s ‘bubble economy’ in 1990 to Wall Street in 2008 – taking in their political and human ramifications such as rising inequality and environmental degradation. He not only predicts that China might be the site of the next crash, but that under neoliberalism this will simply keep happening. The only way that we can stop this cycle, Bello argues, is through a fundamental change in the ways that we organise: a shift to cooperative enterprise, respectful of the environment, and which fractures the twin legacies of imperialism and capitalism. Insightful, erudite and passionate, Paper Dragons is a must-read for anyone wishing to prevent the next financial meltdown.