Forecast

Forecast

Author: Mark Buchanan

Publisher: A&C Black

Published: 2013-01-01

Total Pages: 273

ISBN-13: 1408827379

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Positive feedback--when A produces B, which in turn produces even more A--drives not only abrupt climate changes, but also disruptive events in economics and finance, from asset bubbles to debt crises, bank runs, even corporate corruption. But economists, with few exceptions, have ignored this reality for fifty years, holding on to the unreasonable belief in the wisdom of the market. It's past time to be asking how markets really work. Can we replace economic magical thinking with a better means of predicting what the financial future holds, in order to prepare for--or even avoid--the next extreme economic event? Here, physicist and acclaimed science writer Mark Buchanan answers these questions and more in a master lesson on a smarter economics, which accepts that markets act much like weather. Market instability is as natural--and dangerous--as a prairie twister. With Buchanan's help, perhaps we can better govern the markets and weather their storms.


Book Synopsis Forecast by : Mark Buchanan

Download or read book Forecast written by Mark Buchanan and published by A&C Black. This book was released on 2013-01-01 with total page 273 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Positive feedback--when A produces B, which in turn produces even more A--drives not only abrupt climate changes, but also disruptive events in economics and finance, from asset bubbles to debt crises, bank runs, even corporate corruption. But economists, with few exceptions, have ignored this reality for fifty years, holding on to the unreasonable belief in the wisdom of the market. It's past time to be asking how markets really work. Can we replace economic magical thinking with a better means of predicting what the financial future holds, in order to prepare for--or even avoid--the next extreme economic event? Here, physicist and acclaimed science writer Mark Buchanan answers these questions and more in a master lesson on a smarter economics, which accepts that markets act much like weather. Market instability is as natural--and dangerous--as a prairie twister. With Buchanan's help, perhaps we can better govern the markets and weather their storms.

The Weather Machine

The Weather Machine

Author: Andrew Blum

Publisher: HarperCollins

Published: 2019-06-25

Total Pages: 256

ISBN-13: 1443438618

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From the acclaimed author of Tubes, a lively and surprising tour through the global network that predicts our weather, the people behind it, and what it reveals about our climate and our planet The weather is the foundation of our daily lives. It’s a staple of small talk, the app on our smartphones, and often the first thing we check each morning. Yet, behind all these humble interactions is the largest and most elaborate piece of infrastructure human beings have ever constructed—a triumph of both science and global cooperation. But what is the weather machine, and who created it? In The Weather Machine, Andrew Blum takes readers on a fascinating journey through the people, places, and tools of forecasting, exploring how the weather went from something we simply observed to something we could actually predict. As he travels across the planet, he visits some of the oldest and most important weather stations and watches the newest satellites blast off. He explores the dogged efforts of forecasters to create a supercomputer model of the atmosphere, while trying to grasp the ongoing relevance of TV weather forecasters. In the increasingly unpredictable world of climate change, correctly understanding the weather is vital. Written with the sharp wit and infectious curiosity Andrew Blum is known for, The Weather Machine pulls back the curtain on a universal part of our everyday lives, illuminating our changing relationships with technology, the planet, and our global community.


Book Synopsis The Weather Machine by : Andrew Blum

Download or read book The Weather Machine written by Andrew Blum and published by HarperCollins. This book was released on 2019-06-25 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From the acclaimed author of Tubes, a lively and surprising tour through the global network that predicts our weather, the people behind it, and what it reveals about our climate and our planet The weather is the foundation of our daily lives. It’s a staple of small talk, the app on our smartphones, and often the first thing we check each morning. Yet, behind all these humble interactions is the largest and most elaborate piece of infrastructure human beings have ever constructed—a triumph of both science and global cooperation. But what is the weather machine, and who created it? In The Weather Machine, Andrew Blum takes readers on a fascinating journey through the people, places, and tools of forecasting, exploring how the weather went from something we simply observed to something we could actually predict. As he travels across the planet, he visits some of the oldest and most important weather stations and watches the newest satellites blast off. He explores the dogged efforts of forecasters to create a supercomputer model of the atmosphere, while trying to grasp the ongoing relevance of TV weather forecasters. In the increasingly unpredictable world of climate change, correctly understanding the weather is vital. Written with the sharp wit and infectious curiosity Andrew Blum is known for, The Weather Machine pulls back the curtain on a universal part of our everyday lives, illuminating our changing relationships with technology, the planet, and our global community.

The Weather of the Pacific Northwest

The Weather of the Pacific Northwest

Author: Cliff Mass

Publisher: University of Washington Press

Published: 2021-09-12

Total Pages: 314

ISBN-13: 0295748451

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Powerful Pacific storms strike the region. Otherworldly lenticular clouds often cap Mount Rainier. Rain shadows create sunny skies while torrential rain falls a few miles away. The Pineapple Express brings tropical moisture and warmth during Northwest winters. The Pacific Northwest produces some of the most distinctive and variable weather in North America, which is described with colorful and evocative language in this book. Atmospheric scientist and blogger Cliff Mass, known for his ability to make complex science readily accessible to all, shares eyewitness accounts, historical episodes, and the latest meteorological knowledge. This updated, extensively illustrated, and expanded new edition features: • A new chapter on the history of wildfires and their impact on air quality • Analysis of recent floods and storms, including the Oso landslide of 2014, the 2016 “Ides of October” windstorm, and the tornado that damaged 250 homes in Port Orchard on the Kitsap Peninsula in 2018 • Fresh insight on local weather phenomena such as “The Blob” • Updates on the latest technological advances used in forecasting • A new chapter on the meteorology of British Columbia Highly readable and packed with useful scientific information, this indispensable guide is a go-to resource for outdoor enthusiasts, boaters, gardeners, and anyone who wants to understand and appreciate the complex and fascinating meteorology of the region.


Book Synopsis The Weather of the Pacific Northwest by : Cliff Mass

Download or read book The Weather of the Pacific Northwest written by Cliff Mass and published by University of Washington Press. This book was released on 2021-09-12 with total page 314 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Powerful Pacific storms strike the region. Otherworldly lenticular clouds often cap Mount Rainier. Rain shadows create sunny skies while torrential rain falls a few miles away. The Pineapple Express brings tropical moisture and warmth during Northwest winters. The Pacific Northwest produces some of the most distinctive and variable weather in North America, which is described with colorful and evocative language in this book. Atmospheric scientist and blogger Cliff Mass, known for his ability to make complex science readily accessible to all, shares eyewitness accounts, historical episodes, and the latest meteorological knowledge. This updated, extensively illustrated, and expanded new edition features: • A new chapter on the history of wildfires and their impact on air quality • Analysis of recent floods and storms, including the Oso landslide of 2014, the 2016 “Ides of October” windstorm, and the tornado that damaged 250 homes in Port Orchard on the Kitsap Peninsula in 2018 • Fresh insight on local weather phenomena such as “The Blob” • Updates on the latest technological advances used in forecasting • A new chapter on the meteorology of British Columbia Highly readable and packed with useful scientific information, this indispensable guide is a go-to resource for outdoor enthusiasts, boaters, gardeners, and anyone who wants to understand and appreciate the complex and fascinating meteorology of the region.

Completing the Forecast

Completing the Forecast

Author: National Research Council

Publisher: National Academies Press

Published: 2006-10-09

Total Pages: 124

ISBN-13: 0309180538

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Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of weather, seasonal climate, and hydrological prediction, and no forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty. Effective communication of uncertainty helps people better understand the likelihood of a particular event and improves their ability to make decisions based on the forecast. Nonetheless, for decades, users of these forecasts have been conditioned to receive incomplete information about uncertainty. They have become used to single-valued (deterministic) forecasts (e.g., "the high temperature will be 70 degrees Farenheit 9 days from now") and applied their own experience in determining how much confidence to place in the forecast. Most forecast products from the public and private sectors, including those from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service, continue this deterministic legacy. Fortunately, the National Weather Service and others in the prediction community have recognized the need to view uncertainty as a fundamental part of forecasts. By partnering with other segments of the community to understand user needs, generate relevant and rich informational products, and utilize effective communication vehicles, the National Weather Service can take a leading role in the transition to widespread, effective incorporation of uncertainty information into predictions. "Completing the Forecast" makes recommendations to the National Weather Service and the broader prediction community on how to make this transition.


Book Synopsis Completing the Forecast by : National Research Council

Download or read book Completing the Forecast written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2006-10-09 with total page 124 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of weather, seasonal climate, and hydrological prediction, and no forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty. Effective communication of uncertainty helps people better understand the likelihood of a particular event and improves their ability to make decisions based on the forecast. Nonetheless, for decades, users of these forecasts have been conditioned to receive incomplete information about uncertainty. They have become used to single-valued (deterministic) forecasts (e.g., "the high temperature will be 70 degrees Farenheit 9 days from now") and applied their own experience in determining how much confidence to place in the forecast. Most forecast products from the public and private sectors, including those from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service, continue this deterministic legacy. Fortunately, the National Weather Service and others in the prediction community have recognized the need to view uncertainty as a fundamental part of forecasts. By partnering with other segments of the community to understand user needs, generate relevant and rich informational products, and utilize effective communication vehicles, the National Weather Service can take a leading role in the transition to widespread, effective incorporation of uncertainty information into predictions. "Completing the Forecast" makes recommendations to the National Weather Service and the broader prediction community on how to make this transition.

The Monocle Book of the Nordics

The Monocle Book of the Nordics

Author: Tyler Brule

Publisher: National Geographic Books

Published: 2022-04-12

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13: 0500971218

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The Monocle team heads north in this celebration of all things Nordic. This heavily illustrated book from Monocle is a celebration of the Nordic region, featuring some surprises, quirks—and maybe a sauna or two— along the way. Monocle’s journalists, editors, and photographers have returned time and again to all corners of northern Europe for insights, inspiration, and ideas for living better. This book isn’t about hammering the overhyped hygge trend or fussing over foamy food. Much the opposite—it’s about a shared but distinct set of values that have helped these nations excel in quiet diplomacy, thoughtful design, and reasoned debate. Monocle looks beyond the clichés and uncovers the people, companies, and stories that help the Nordic region rank highly in everything from art and architecture to eating well. Far from lumping these different nations together, the Monocle team will highlight the people, places and products that show the Nordics in all their nuances: lessons we can all learn from makers in Norway’s high north or retailers reaching higher in Reykjavík; the firms building bridges in Denmark or selling Swedish soft power abroad. The world can learn a lot from these northern countries and The Monocle Book of the Nordics is the ideal place to start.


Book Synopsis The Monocle Book of the Nordics by : Tyler Brule

Download or read book The Monocle Book of the Nordics written by Tyler Brule and published by National Geographic Books. This book was released on 2022-04-12 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Monocle team heads north in this celebration of all things Nordic. This heavily illustrated book from Monocle is a celebration of the Nordic region, featuring some surprises, quirks—and maybe a sauna or two— along the way. Monocle’s journalists, editors, and photographers have returned time and again to all corners of northern Europe for insights, inspiration, and ideas for living better. This book isn’t about hammering the overhyped hygge trend or fussing over foamy food. Much the opposite—it’s about a shared but distinct set of values that have helped these nations excel in quiet diplomacy, thoughtful design, and reasoned debate. Monocle looks beyond the clichés and uncovers the people, companies, and stories that help the Nordic region rank highly in everything from art and architecture to eating well. Far from lumping these different nations together, the Monocle team will highlight the people, places and products that show the Nordics in all their nuances: lessons we can all learn from makers in Norway’s high north or retailers reaching higher in Reykjavík; the firms building bridges in Denmark or selling Swedish soft power abroad. The world can learn a lot from these northern countries and The Monocle Book of the Nordics is the ideal place to start.

Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers

Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers

Author: Mr.Olivier J. Blanchard

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2013-01-03

Total Pages: 43

ISBN-13: 1475576447

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This paper investigates the relation between growth forecast errors and planned fiscal consolidation during the crisis. We find that, in advanced economies, stronger planned fiscal consolidation has been associated with lower growth than expected, with the relation being particularly strong, both statistically and economically, early in the crisis. A natural interpretation is that fiscal multipliers were substantially higher than implicitly assumed by forecasters. The weaker relation in more recent years may reflect in part learning by forecasters and in part smaller multipliers than in the early years of the crisis.


Book Synopsis Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers by : Mr.Olivier J. Blanchard

Download or read book Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers written by Mr.Olivier J. Blanchard and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-01-03 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates the relation between growth forecast errors and planned fiscal consolidation during the crisis. We find that, in advanced economies, stronger planned fiscal consolidation has been associated with lower growth than expected, with the relation being particularly strong, both statistically and economically, early in the crisis. A natural interpretation is that fiscal multipliers were substantially higher than implicitly assumed by forecasters. The weaker relation in more recent years may reflect in part learning by forecasters and in part smaller multipliers than in the early years of the crisis.

Forecast Verification

Forecast Verification

Author: Ian T. Jolliffe

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons

Published: 2011-12-30

Total Pages: 316

ISBN-13: 0470660716

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Forecast Verification: A Practioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science, 2nd Edition provides an indispensible guide to this area of active research by combining depth of information with a range of topics to appeal both to professional practitioners and researchers and postgraduates. The editors have succeeded in presenting chapters by a variety of the leading experts in the field while still retaining a cohesive and highly accessible style. The book balances explanations of concepts with clear and useful discussion of the main application areas. Reviews of first edition: "This book will provide a good reference, and I recommend it especially for developers and evaluators of statistical forecast systems." (Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society; April 2004) "...a good mixture of theory and practical applications...well organized and clearly written..." (Royal Statistical Society, Vol.168, No.1, January 2005) NEW to the second edition: Completely updated chapter on the Verification of Spatial Forecasts taking account of the wealth of new research in the area New separate chapters on Probability Forecasts and Ensemble Forecasts Includes new chapter on Forecasts of Extreme Events and Warnings Includes new chapter on Seasonal and Climate Forecasts Includes new Appendix on Verification Software Cover image credit: The triangle of barplots shows a novel use of colour for visualizing probability forecasts of ternary categories – see Fig 6b of Jupp et al. 2011, On the visualisation, verification and recalibration of ternary probabilistic forecasts, Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. (in press).


Book Synopsis Forecast Verification by : Ian T. Jolliffe

Download or read book Forecast Verification written by Ian T. Jolliffe and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-12-30 with total page 316 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecast Verification: A Practioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science, 2nd Edition provides an indispensible guide to this area of active research by combining depth of information with a range of topics to appeal both to professional practitioners and researchers and postgraduates. The editors have succeeded in presenting chapters by a variety of the leading experts in the field while still retaining a cohesive and highly accessible style. The book balances explanations of concepts with clear and useful discussion of the main application areas. Reviews of first edition: "This book will provide a good reference, and I recommend it especially for developers and evaluators of statistical forecast systems." (Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society; April 2004) "...a good mixture of theory and practical applications...well organized and clearly written..." (Royal Statistical Society, Vol.168, No.1, January 2005) NEW to the second edition: Completely updated chapter on the Verification of Spatial Forecasts taking account of the wealth of new research in the area New separate chapters on Probability Forecasts and Ensemble Forecasts Includes new chapter on Forecasts of Extreme Events and Warnings Includes new chapter on Seasonal and Climate Forecasts Includes new Appendix on Verification Software Cover image credit: The triangle of barplots shows a novel use of colour for visualizing probability forecasts of ternary categories – see Fig 6b of Jupp et al. 2011, On the visualisation, verification and recalibration of ternary probabilistic forecasts, Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. (in press).

Monthly Weather Review

Monthly Weather Review

Author:

Publisher:

Published: 1898

Total Pages: 436

ISBN-13:

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Book Synopsis Monthly Weather Review by :

Download or read book Monthly Weather Review written by and published by . This book was released on 1898 with total page 436 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Operations of the Navy Wartime Long Range Forecast Unit

Operations of the Navy Wartime Long Range Forecast Unit

Author: United States. Naval Operations Office (Navy Department)

Publisher:

Published: 1947

Total Pages: 28

ISBN-13:

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Book Synopsis Operations of the Navy Wartime Long Range Forecast Unit by : United States. Naval Operations Office (Navy Department)

Download or read book Operations of the Navy Wartime Long Range Forecast Unit written by United States. Naval Operations Office (Navy Department) and published by . This book was released on 1947 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Representation of warm conveyor belts in sub-seasonal forecast models and the link to Atlantic-European weather regimes

Representation of warm conveyor belts in sub-seasonal forecast models and the link to Atlantic-European weather regimes

Author: Wandel, Jan Lucas

Publisher: KIT Scientific Publishing

Published: 2023-05-25

Total Pages: 256

ISBN-13: 3731512491

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This study systematically investigates the representation of warm conveyor belts (WCBs) in large reforecast data sets of different numerical weather prediction models and evaluates the role of WCBs for the onset and life cycle of Atlantic-European weather regimes. The results emphasize the importance of accurate forecast of WCBs for sub-seasonal prediction on time scales beyond two weeks and tie the low forecast skill of blocked weather regimes over Europe to misrepresented WCBs.


Book Synopsis Representation of warm conveyor belts in sub-seasonal forecast models and the link to Atlantic-European weather regimes by : Wandel, Jan Lucas

Download or read book Representation of warm conveyor belts in sub-seasonal forecast models and the link to Atlantic-European weather regimes written by Wandel, Jan Lucas and published by KIT Scientific Publishing. This book was released on 2023-05-25 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study systematically investigates the representation of warm conveyor belts (WCBs) in large reforecast data sets of different numerical weather prediction models and evaluates the role of WCBs for the onset and life cycle of Atlantic-European weather regimes. The results emphasize the importance of accurate forecast of WCBs for sub-seasonal prediction on time scales beyond two weeks and tie the low forecast skill of blocked weather regimes over Europe to misrepresented WCBs.