The importance of being informed: Forecasting market risk measures for the Russian RTS index future using online data and implied volatility over two decades

The importance of being informed: Forecasting market risk measures for the Russian RTS index future using online data and implied volatility over two decades

Author: Dean Fantazzini

Publisher: Litres

Published: 2022-01-29

Total Pages: 27

ISBN-13: 5042017135

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This paper focuses on the forecasting of market risk measures for the Russian RTS index future, and examines whether augmenting a large class of volatility models with implied volatility and Google Trends data improves the quality of the estimated risk measures. We considered a time sample of daily data from 2006 till 2019, which includes several episodes of large-scale turbulence in the Russian future market. We found that the predictive power of several models did not increase if these two variables were added, but actually decreased.The worst results were obtained when these two variables were added jointly and during periods of high volatility, when parameters estimates became very unstable. Moreover, several models augmented with these variables did not reach numerical convergence. Our empirical evidence shows that, in the case of Russian future markets, TGARCH models with implied volatility and Student’s t errors are better choices if robust market risk measures are of concern.


Book Synopsis The importance of being informed: Forecasting market risk measures for the Russian RTS index future using online data and implied volatility over two decades by : Dean Fantazzini

Download or read book The importance of being informed: Forecasting market risk measures for the Russian RTS index future using online data and implied volatility over two decades written by Dean Fantazzini and published by Litres. This book was released on 2022-01-29 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper focuses on the forecasting of market risk measures for the Russian RTS index future, and examines whether augmenting a large class of volatility models with implied volatility and Google Trends data improves the quality of the estimated risk measures. We considered a time sample of daily data from 2006 till 2019, which includes several episodes of large-scale turbulence in the Russian future market. We found that the predictive power of several models did not increase if these two variables were added, but actually decreased.The worst results were obtained when these two variables were added jointly and during periods of high volatility, when parameters estimates became very unstable. Moreover, several models augmented with these variables did not reach numerical convergence. Our empirical evidence shows that, in the case of Russian future markets, TGARCH models with implied volatility and Student’s t errors are better choices if robust market risk measures are of concern.

Global Value Chains in a Changing World

Global Value Chains in a Changing World

Author: Deborah Kay Elms

Publisher:

Published: 2013

Total Pages: 409

ISBN-13: 9789287038821

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A collection of papers by some of the world's leading specialists on global value chains (GVCs). It examines how GVCs have evolved and the challenges they face in a rapidly changing world. The approach is multi-disciplinary, with contributions from economists, political scientists, supply chain management specialists, practitioners and policy-makers. Co-published with the Fung Global Institute and the Temasek


Book Synopsis Global Value Chains in a Changing World by : Deborah Kay Elms

Download or read book Global Value Chains in a Changing World written by Deborah Kay Elms and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 409 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A collection of papers by some of the world's leading specialists on global value chains (GVCs). It examines how GVCs have evolved and the challenges they face in a rapidly changing world. The approach is multi-disciplinary, with contributions from economists, political scientists, supply chain management specialists, practitioners and policy-makers. Co-published with the Fung Global Institute and the Temasek

International Convergence of Capital Measurement and Capital Standards

International Convergence of Capital Measurement and Capital Standards

Author:

Publisher: Lulu.com

Published: 2004

Total Pages: 294

ISBN-13: 9291316695

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Book Synopsis International Convergence of Capital Measurement and Capital Standards by :

Download or read book International Convergence of Capital Measurement and Capital Standards written by and published by Lulu.com. This book was released on 2004 with total page 294 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

The Financial Crisis Inquiry Report

The Financial Crisis Inquiry Report

Author: Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission

Publisher: Cosimo, Inc.

Published: 2011-05-01

Total Pages: 692

ISBN-13: 1616405414

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The Financial Crisis Inquiry Report, published by the U.S. Government and the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission in early 2011, is the official government report on the United States financial collapse and the review of major financial institutions that bankrupted and failed, or would have without help from the government. The commission and the report were implemented after Congress passed an act in 2009 to review and prevent fraudulent activity. The report details, among other things, the periods before, during, and after the crisis, what led up to it, and analyses of subprime mortgage lending, credit expansion and banking policies, the collapse of companies like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and the federal bailouts of Lehman and AIG. It also discusses the aftermath of the fallout and our current state. This report should be of interest to anyone concerned about the financial situation in the U.S. and around the world.THE FINANCIAL CRISIS INQUIRY COMMISSION is an independent, bi-partisan, government-appointed panel of 10 people that was created to "examine the causes, domestic and global, of the current financial and economic crisis in the United States." It was established as part of the Fraud Enforcement and Recovery Act of 2009. The commission consisted of private citizens with expertise in economics and finance, banking, housing, market regulation, and consumer protection. They examined and reported on "the collapse of major financial institutions that failed or would have failed if not for exceptional assistance from the government."News Dissector DANNY SCHECHTER is a journalist, blogger and filmmaker. He has been reporting on economic crises since the 1980's when he was with ABC News. His film In Debt We Trust warned of the economic meltdown in 2006. He has since written three books on the subject including Plunder: Investigating Our Economic Calamity (Cosimo Books, 2008), and The Crime Of Our Time: Why Wall Street Is Not Too Big to Jail (Disinfo Books, 2011), a companion to his latest film Plunder The Crime Of Our Time. He can be reached online at www.newsdissector.com.


Book Synopsis The Financial Crisis Inquiry Report by : Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission

Download or read book The Financial Crisis Inquiry Report written by Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission and published by Cosimo, Inc.. This book was released on 2011-05-01 with total page 692 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Financial Crisis Inquiry Report, published by the U.S. Government and the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission in early 2011, is the official government report on the United States financial collapse and the review of major financial institutions that bankrupted and failed, or would have without help from the government. The commission and the report were implemented after Congress passed an act in 2009 to review and prevent fraudulent activity. The report details, among other things, the periods before, during, and after the crisis, what led up to it, and analyses of subprime mortgage lending, credit expansion and banking policies, the collapse of companies like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and the federal bailouts of Lehman and AIG. It also discusses the aftermath of the fallout and our current state. This report should be of interest to anyone concerned about the financial situation in the U.S. and around the world.THE FINANCIAL CRISIS INQUIRY COMMISSION is an independent, bi-partisan, government-appointed panel of 10 people that was created to "examine the causes, domestic and global, of the current financial and economic crisis in the United States." It was established as part of the Fraud Enforcement and Recovery Act of 2009. The commission consisted of private citizens with expertise in economics and finance, banking, housing, market regulation, and consumer protection. They examined and reported on "the collapse of major financial institutions that failed or would have failed if not for exceptional assistance from the government."News Dissector DANNY SCHECHTER is a journalist, blogger and filmmaker. He has been reporting on economic crises since the 1980's when he was with ABC News. His film In Debt We Trust warned of the economic meltdown in 2006. He has since written three books on the subject including Plunder: Investigating Our Economic Calamity (Cosimo Books, 2008), and The Crime Of Our Time: Why Wall Street Is Not Too Big to Jail (Disinfo Books, 2011), a companion to his latest film Plunder The Crime Of Our Time. He can be reached online at www.newsdissector.com.

Investing From the Top Down: A Macro Approach to Capital Markets

Investing From the Top Down: A Macro Approach to Capital Markets

Author: Anthony Crescenzi

Publisher: McGraw Hill Professional

Published: 2008-09-14

Total Pages: 302

ISBN-13: 0071641564

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Crescenzi makes frequent appearances on CNBC, Bloomberg, and NBC's “Wall Street Journal Report with Maria Bartiromo” and he has acted as advisor to members of the White House The author is a featured columnist for thestreet.com's” Real Money” and has a strong professional following The book covers all major instruments and investment choices


Book Synopsis Investing From the Top Down: A Macro Approach to Capital Markets by : Anthony Crescenzi

Download or read book Investing From the Top Down: A Macro Approach to Capital Markets written by Anthony Crescenzi and published by McGraw Hill Professional. This book was released on 2008-09-14 with total page 302 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Crescenzi makes frequent appearances on CNBC, Bloomberg, and NBC's “Wall Street Journal Report with Maria Bartiromo” and he has acted as advisor to members of the White House The author is a featured columnist for thestreet.com's” Real Money” and has a strong professional following The book covers all major instruments and investment choices

The Long Shadow of Informality

The Long Shadow of Informality

Author: Franziska Ohnsorge

Publisher: World Bank Publications

Published: 2022-02-09

Total Pages: 397

ISBN-13: 1464817545

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A large percentage of workers and firms operate in the informal economy, outside the line of sight of governments in emerging market and developing economies. This may hold back the recovery in these economies from the deep recessions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic--unless governments adopt a broad set of policies to address the challenges of widespread informality. This study is the first comprehensive analysis of the extent of informality and its implications for a durable economic recovery and for long-term development. It finds that pervasive informality is associated with significantly weaker economic outcomes--including lower government resources to combat recessions, lower per capita incomes, greater poverty, less financial development, and weaker investment and productivity.


Book Synopsis The Long Shadow of Informality by : Franziska Ohnsorge

Download or read book The Long Shadow of Informality written by Franziska Ohnsorge and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2022-02-09 with total page 397 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A large percentage of workers and firms operate in the informal economy, outside the line of sight of governments in emerging market and developing economies. This may hold back the recovery in these economies from the deep recessions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic--unless governments adopt a broad set of policies to address the challenges of widespread informality. This study is the first comprehensive analysis of the extent of informality and its implications for a durable economic recovery and for long-term development. It finds that pervasive informality is associated with significantly weaker economic outcomes--including lower government resources to combat recessions, lower per capita incomes, greater poverty, less financial development, and weaker investment and productivity.

Informality

Informality

Author: Guillermo Perry

Publisher: World Bank Publications

Published: 2007

Total Pages: 270

ISBN-13: 0821370936

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Analyzes informality in Latin America, exploring root causes and reasons for and implications of its growth. This book uses two distinct but complementary lenses. It concludes that reducing informality levels and overcoming the "culture of informality" will require actions to increase aggregate productivity in the economy.


Book Synopsis Informality by : Guillermo Perry

Download or read book Informality written by Guillermo Perry and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2007 with total page 270 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Analyzes informality in Latin America, exploring root causes and reasons for and implications of its growth. This book uses two distinct but complementary lenses. It concludes that reducing informality levels and overcoming the "culture of informality" will require actions to increase aggregate productivity in the economy.

Global Economic Prospects, January 2017

Global Economic Prospects, January 2017

Author: World Bank Group

Publisher: World Bank Publications

Published: 2017-03-01

Total Pages: 272

ISBN-13: 1464810176

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Stagnant global trade, subdued investment, and heightened policy uncertainty marked another difficult year for the world economy. A subdued recovery is expected for 2017, with receding obstacles to activity in commodity exporters and solid domestic demand in commodity importers. Weak investment is weighing on medium-term prospects across many emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs). Although fiscal stimulus in major economies, if implemented, may boost global growth above expectations, risks to growth forecasts remain tilted to the downside. Important downside risks stem from heightened policy uncertainty in major economies. Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report. On a semiannual basis (January and June), it examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on developing countries. The report includes analysis of topical policy challenges faced by developing countries through in-depth research in the January edition and shorter analytical pieces in the June edition.


Book Synopsis Global Economic Prospects, January 2017 by : World Bank Group

Download or read book Global Economic Prospects, January 2017 written by World Bank Group and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2017-03-01 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Stagnant global trade, subdued investment, and heightened policy uncertainty marked another difficult year for the world economy. A subdued recovery is expected for 2017, with receding obstacles to activity in commodity exporters and solid domestic demand in commodity importers. Weak investment is weighing on medium-term prospects across many emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs). Although fiscal stimulus in major economies, if implemented, may boost global growth above expectations, risks to growth forecasts remain tilted to the downside. Important downside risks stem from heightened policy uncertainty in major economies. Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report. On a semiannual basis (January and June), it examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on developing countries. The report includes analysis of topical policy challenges faced by developing countries through in-depth research in the January edition and shorter analytical pieces in the June edition.

Trade Competitiveness Diagnostic Toolkit

Trade Competitiveness Diagnostic Toolkit

Author: Jose Guilherme Reis

Publisher: World Bank Publications

Published: 2012-03-12

Total Pages: 221

ISBN-13: 0821389386

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This toolkit provides a framework, guidelines, and practical tools for conducting an analysis of a country's trade competitiveness in terms of growth and share performance, diversification, and quality.


Book Synopsis Trade Competitiveness Diagnostic Toolkit by : Jose Guilherme Reis

Download or read book Trade Competitiveness Diagnostic Toolkit written by Jose Guilherme Reis and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2012-03-12 with total page 221 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This toolkit provides a framework, guidelines, and practical tools for conducting an analysis of a country's trade competitiveness in terms of growth and share performance, diversification, and quality.

Renminbi Internationalization

Renminbi Internationalization

Author: Barry Eichengreen

Publisher: Brookings Institution Press

Published: 2015-02-11

Total Pages: 401

ISBN-13: 0815726120

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A Brookings Institution Press and Asian Development Bank Institute publication Meet the next global currency: the Chinese renminbi, or the "redback." Following the global financial crisis of 2008, China's major monetary policy objective is the internationalization of the renminbi, that is, to create an inter-national role for its currency akin to the international role currently played by the U.S. dollar. Renminbi internationalization is a hot topic, for good reason. It is, essentially, a window onto the Chinese government's aspirations and the larger process of economic and financial transformation. Making the renminbi a global currency requires rebalancing the Chinese economy, developing the country's financial markets and opening them to the rest of the world, and moving to a more flexible exchange rate. In other words, the internationalization of the renminbi is a monetary and financial issue with much broader supra-monetary and financial implications. This book offers a new perspective on the larger issues of economic, financial, and institutional change in what will eventually be the world's largest economy.


Book Synopsis Renminbi Internationalization by : Barry Eichengreen

Download or read book Renminbi Internationalization written by Barry Eichengreen and published by Brookings Institution Press. This book was released on 2015-02-11 with total page 401 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A Brookings Institution Press and Asian Development Bank Institute publication Meet the next global currency: the Chinese renminbi, or the "redback." Following the global financial crisis of 2008, China's major monetary policy objective is the internationalization of the renminbi, that is, to create an inter-national role for its currency akin to the international role currently played by the U.S. dollar. Renminbi internationalization is a hot topic, for good reason. It is, essentially, a window onto the Chinese government's aspirations and the larger process of economic and financial transformation. Making the renminbi a global currency requires rebalancing the Chinese economy, developing the country's financial markets and opening them to the rest of the world, and moving to a more flexible exchange rate. In other words, the internationalization of the renminbi is a monetary and financial issue with much broader supra-monetary and financial implications. This book offers a new perspective on the larger issues of economic, financial, and institutional change in what will eventually be the world's largest economy.