Thinking the Other Unthinkable: Disarmament in North Korea and Beyond

Thinking the Other Unthinkable: Disarmament in North Korea and Beyond

Author: Toby Dalton

Publisher:

Published: 2020-07

Total Pages:

ISBN-13: 9781952565038

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Neither the governments attempting to negotiate with North Korea, nor the drafters of the UN Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, define what verifiable elimination of nuclear weapons and associated infrastructure would entail, whether in one country or in all.What model for nuclear disarmament might a nuclear-armed state demand of its adversaries and accept for itself? If states were to commit to dismantle their nuclear arsenals, what would be the key benchmarks for assessing the progressive implementation of such a commitment? Designing sustainable, effective nuclear disarmament-of North Korea or any other nuclear-armed state-requires much more than dismantling warheads and controlling fissile material stocks. Disarming states would need to collectively agree what types and numbers of delivery systems (especially missiles) would be permissible. Both nuclear-armed and non-nuclear-weapon states would need to determine what peaceful nuclear and space activities may remain during and after nuclear disarmament, and under what reassurance/monitoring conditions. At least some states would press for monitored limits on research and development activities vital to building or reconstituting nuclear arsenals. The paper starts from a logic that could inform a denuclearization agreement with North Korea and how to manage its retention of nuclear weapons-related capabilities, including nuclear energy production, conventionally armed ballistic missiles, and a space launch program, among others. The paper then explores comparable political and technical choices that would need to be made in the disarmament of other nuclear-armed states, focusing on six challenges that will shape negotiations on dual-use capabilities and activities that would remain during and after disarmament. Finally, the paper examines challenges in verifying compliance and surveys the often-avoided problem of enforcing disarmament agreements.The authors do not pretend that a particular disarmament roadmap could be charted today; rather they suggest how progress toward disarmament could be defined and assessed in light of challenges that are likely to exist. Thinking through and debating what would be involved in nuclear disarmament-and how it could be done in ways that would not make major warfare between states more likely-can constructively inform policy decisions that states are making now.


Book Synopsis Thinking the Other Unthinkable: Disarmament in North Korea and Beyond by : Toby Dalton

Download or read book Thinking the Other Unthinkable: Disarmament in North Korea and Beyond written by Toby Dalton and published by . This book was released on 2020-07 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Neither the governments attempting to negotiate with North Korea, nor the drafters of the UN Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, define what verifiable elimination of nuclear weapons and associated infrastructure would entail, whether in one country or in all.What model for nuclear disarmament might a nuclear-armed state demand of its adversaries and accept for itself? If states were to commit to dismantle their nuclear arsenals, what would be the key benchmarks for assessing the progressive implementation of such a commitment? Designing sustainable, effective nuclear disarmament-of North Korea or any other nuclear-armed state-requires much more than dismantling warheads and controlling fissile material stocks. Disarming states would need to collectively agree what types and numbers of delivery systems (especially missiles) would be permissible. Both nuclear-armed and non-nuclear-weapon states would need to determine what peaceful nuclear and space activities may remain during and after nuclear disarmament, and under what reassurance/monitoring conditions. At least some states would press for monitored limits on research and development activities vital to building or reconstituting nuclear arsenals. The paper starts from a logic that could inform a denuclearization agreement with North Korea and how to manage its retention of nuclear weapons-related capabilities, including nuclear energy production, conventionally armed ballistic missiles, and a space launch program, among others. The paper then explores comparable political and technical choices that would need to be made in the disarmament of other nuclear-armed states, focusing on six challenges that will shape negotiations on dual-use capabilities and activities that would remain during and after disarmament. Finally, the paper examines challenges in verifying compliance and surveys the often-avoided problem of enforcing disarmament agreements.The authors do not pretend that a particular disarmament roadmap could be charted today; rather they suggest how progress toward disarmament could be defined and assessed in light of challenges that are likely to exist. Thinking through and debating what would be involved in nuclear disarmament-and how it could be done in ways that would not make major warfare between states more likely-can constructively inform policy decisions that states are making now.

Strategy in the Second Nuclear Age

Strategy in the Second Nuclear Age

Author: Toshi Yoshihara

Publisher: Georgetown University Press

Published: 2012-12-01

Total Pages: 258

ISBN-13: 1589019296

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A “second nuclear age” has begun in the post-Cold War world. Created by the expansion of nuclear arsenals and new proliferation in Asia, it has changed the familiar nuclear geometry of the Cold War. Increasing potency of nuclear arsenals in China, India, and Pakistan, the nuclear breakout in North Korea, and the potential for more states to cross the nuclear-weapons threshold from Iran to Japan suggest that the second nuclear age of many competing nuclear powers has the potential to be even less stable than the first. Strategy in the Second Nuclear Age assembles a group of distinguished scholars to grapple with the matter of how the United States, its allies, and its friends must size up the strategies, doctrines, and force structures currently taking shape if they are to design responses that reinforce deterrence amid vastly more complex strategic circumstances. By focusing sharply on strategy—that is, on how states use doomsday weaponry for political gain—the book distinguishes itself from familiar net assessments emphasizing quantifiable factors like hardware, technical characteristics, and manpower. While the emphasis varies from chapter to chapter, contributors pay special heed to the logistical, technological, and social dimensions of strategy alongside the specifics of force structure and operations. They never lose sight of the human factor—the pivotal factor in diplomacy, strategy, and war.


Book Synopsis Strategy in the Second Nuclear Age by : Toshi Yoshihara

Download or read book Strategy in the Second Nuclear Age written by Toshi Yoshihara and published by Georgetown University Press. This book was released on 2012-12-01 with total page 258 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A “second nuclear age” has begun in the post-Cold War world. Created by the expansion of nuclear arsenals and new proliferation in Asia, it has changed the familiar nuclear geometry of the Cold War. Increasing potency of nuclear arsenals in China, India, and Pakistan, the nuclear breakout in North Korea, and the potential for more states to cross the nuclear-weapons threshold from Iran to Japan suggest that the second nuclear age of many competing nuclear powers has the potential to be even less stable than the first. Strategy in the Second Nuclear Age assembles a group of distinguished scholars to grapple with the matter of how the United States, its allies, and its friends must size up the strategies, doctrines, and force structures currently taking shape if they are to design responses that reinforce deterrence amid vastly more complex strategic circumstances. By focusing sharply on strategy—that is, on how states use doomsday weaponry for political gain—the book distinguishes itself from familiar net assessments emphasizing quantifiable factors like hardware, technical characteristics, and manpower. While the emphasis varies from chapter to chapter, contributors pay special heed to the logistical, technological, and social dimensions of strategy alongside the specifics of force structure and operations. They never lose sight of the human factor—the pivotal factor in diplomacy, strategy, and war.

War with China

War with China

Author: David C. Gompert

Publisher: Rand Corporation

Published: 2016-07-05

Total Pages: 116

ISBN-13: 0833091557

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A Sino-U.S. war could take various, and unintended, paths. Because intense, reciprocal conventional counterforce attacks could inflict heavy losses and costs on both sides, leaders need options and channels to contain and terminate fighting.


Book Synopsis War with China by : David C. Gompert

Download or read book War with China written by David C. Gompert and published by Rand Corporation. This book was released on 2016-07-05 with total page 116 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A Sino-U.S. war could take various, and unintended, paths. Because intense, reciprocal conventional counterforce attacks could inflict heavy losses and costs on both sides, leaders need options and channels to contain and terminate fighting.

Toward New Thinking about Our Changed and Changing World

Toward New Thinking about Our Changed and Changing World

Author: Brad Roberts

Publisher:

Published: 2020-10-15

Total Pages:

ISBN-13: 9781952565045

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The Center for Global Security Research (CGSR) was founded in 1994 to serve as a bridge between the technical and policy communities. Its core mission is to ensure that each community has some understanding of the perspectives and priorities of the other. In its first decade, the Center focused heavily on defining the realm of the necessary and possible for cooperative threat reduction with the post-Soviet states. In its second decade, the Center's interests expanded to include proliferation and nonproliferation. In 2015, it set out on a new course. In order to come to terms with a changed and changing security environment, it re-focused on the new issues of deterrence, assurance, and strategic stability. This change followed in part from the conviction of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory leadership that the Laboratory needed to do more to strengthen "the bridge" on these topics. In 2015 we framed a new analytical approach built around five thrust areas:1.Major Power Rivalry and Deterrence 2.Regional Challengers and Challenges 3.Toward Integrated Strategic Deterrence 4.The Future of Cooperative Measures to Reduce Nuclear/Strategic Dangers 5.The Future of Long-Term Competitive Strategies In each area, we then sketched out some high-level framing questions. Over the following five years, CGSR convened 45 two-day workshops and hosted 116 speakers. It issued 20 major publications and scores of research surveys and workshop summaries. It has built a student program and put more than 100 research associates to work. It has kept stakeholders involved in defining and executing its program of work. It also expanded its mission to put a new focus on encouraging the development of emerging communities of interest.This report summarizes key insights gained over this five-year period. It is comprehensive in approach. But it is not exhaustive. Instead, this report attempts to provide a coherent set of answers to the high-level framing question, as derived from that work. These should be thought of as initial hypotheses, subject to further inquiry and analysis. The report backs these up with a select discussion of aspects of our work bearing on those answers.


Book Synopsis Toward New Thinking about Our Changed and Changing World by : Brad Roberts

Download or read book Toward New Thinking about Our Changed and Changing World written by Brad Roberts and published by . This book was released on 2020-10-15 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Center for Global Security Research (CGSR) was founded in 1994 to serve as a bridge between the technical and policy communities. Its core mission is to ensure that each community has some understanding of the perspectives and priorities of the other. In its first decade, the Center focused heavily on defining the realm of the necessary and possible for cooperative threat reduction with the post-Soviet states. In its second decade, the Center's interests expanded to include proliferation and nonproliferation. In 2015, it set out on a new course. In order to come to terms with a changed and changing security environment, it re-focused on the new issues of deterrence, assurance, and strategic stability. This change followed in part from the conviction of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory leadership that the Laboratory needed to do more to strengthen "the bridge" on these topics. In 2015 we framed a new analytical approach built around five thrust areas:1.Major Power Rivalry and Deterrence 2.Regional Challengers and Challenges 3.Toward Integrated Strategic Deterrence 4.The Future of Cooperative Measures to Reduce Nuclear/Strategic Dangers 5.The Future of Long-Term Competitive Strategies In each area, we then sketched out some high-level framing questions. Over the following five years, CGSR convened 45 two-day workshops and hosted 116 speakers. It issued 20 major publications and scores of research surveys and workshop summaries. It has built a student program and put more than 100 research associates to work. It has kept stakeholders involved in defining and executing its program of work. It also expanded its mission to put a new focus on encouraging the development of emerging communities of interest.This report summarizes key insights gained over this five-year period. It is comprehensive in approach. But it is not exhaustive. Instead, this report attempts to provide a coherent set of answers to the high-level framing question, as derived from that work. These should be thought of as initial hypotheses, subject to further inquiry and analysis. The report backs these up with a select discussion of aspects of our work bearing on those answers.

Thinking about the Unthinkable in the 1980s

Thinking about the Unthinkable in the 1980s

Author: Herman Kahn

Publisher: New York : Simon and Schuster

Published: 1984

Total Pages: 270

ISBN-13:

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In this reconsideration of his controversial study Thinking about the Unthinkable (1962), Kahn addresses deterrence concepts and specific arms control issues which are likely to remain at the forefront of the nuclear debate. Taking into account the political, technical and moral developments of the past 20 years, he argues that since nuclear weapons exist and cannot be disinvented, it is crucial to maintain a militarily strong United States, while making every effort to enhance deterrence. He believes that for a government to pursue deterrence at any cost, without contingency plans, is not only irresponsible but immoral; and that the only justification for maintaining a nuclear arsenal is to deter, balance or correct the use of nuclear weapons by others. ISBN 0-671-47544-4 : $16.95.


Book Synopsis Thinking about the Unthinkable in the 1980s by : Herman Kahn

Download or read book Thinking about the Unthinkable in the 1980s written by Herman Kahn and published by New York : Simon and Schuster. This book was released on 1984 with total page 270 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this reconsideration of his controversial study Thinking about the Unthinkable (1962), Kahn addresses deterrence concepts and specific arms control issues which are likely to remain at the forefront of the nuclear debate. Taking into account the political, technical and moral developments of the past 20 years, he argues that since nuclear weapons exist and cannot be disinvented, it is crucial to maintain a militarily strong United States, while making every effort to enhance deterrence. He believes that for a government to pursue deterrence at any cost, without contingency plans, is not only irresponsible but immoral; and that the only justification for maintaining a nuclear arsenal is to deter, balance or correct the use of nuclear weapons by others. ISBN 0-671-47544-4 : $16.95.

Abolishing Nuclear Weapons

Abolishing Nuclear Weapons

Author: George Perkovich

Publisher: Routledge

Published: 2017-10-03

Total Pages: 152

ISBN-13: 1351225960

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Nuclear disarmament is firmly back on the international agenda. But almost all current thinking on the subject is focused on the process of reducing the number of weapons from thousands to hundreds. This rigorous analysis examines the challenges that exist to abolishing nuclear weapons completely, and suggests what can be done now to start overcoming them. The paper argues that the difficulties of 'getting to zero' must not preclude many steps being taken in that direction. It thus begins by examining steps that nuclear-armed states could take in cooperation with others to move towards a world in which the task of prohibiting nuclear weapons could be realistically envisaged. The remainder of the paper focuses on the more distant prospect of prohibiting nuclear weapons, beginning with the challenge of verifying the transition from low numbers to zero. It moves on to examine how the civilian nuclear industry could be managed in a nuclear-weapons-free world so as to prevent rearmament. The paper then considers what political-security conditions would be required to make a nuclear-weapons ban enforceable and explores how enforcement might work in practice. Finally, it addresses the latent capability to produce nuclear weapons that would inevitably exist after abolition, and asks whether this is a barrier to disarmament, or whether it can be managed to meet the security needs of a world newly free of the bomb.


Book Synopsis Abolishing Nuclear Weapons by : George Perkovich

Download or read book Abolishing Nuclear Weapons written by George Perkovich and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2017-10-03 with total page 152 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Nuclear disarmament is firmly back on the international agenda. But almost all current thinking on the subject is focused on the process of reducing the number of weapons from thousands to hundreds. This rigorous analysis examines the challenges that exist to abolishing nuclear weapons completely, and suggests what can be done now to start overcoming them. The paper argues that the difficulties of 'getting to zero' must not preclude many steps being taken in that direction. It thus begins by examining steps that nuclear-armed states could take in cooperation with others to move towards a world in which the task of prohibiting nuclear weapons could be realistically envisaged. The remainder of the paper focuses on the more distant prospect of prohibiting nuclear weapons, beginning with the challenge of verifying the transition from low numbers to zero. It moves on to examine how the civilian nuclear industry could be managed in a nuclear-weapons-free world so as to prevent rearmament. The paper then considers what political-security conditions would be required to make a nuclear-weapons ban enforceable and explores how enforcement might work in practice. Finally, it addresses the latent capability to produce nuclear weapons that would inevitably exist after abolition, and asks whether this is a barrier to disarmament, or whether it can be managed to meet the security needs of a world newly free of the bomb.

Five Myths about Nuclear Weapons

Five Myths about Nuclear Weapons

Author: Ward Wilson

Publisher: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt

Published: 2013

Total Pages: 205

ISBN-13: 054785787X

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Expanded from an article that created a stir in foreign policy circles, this book shows why five central arguments promoting nuclear weapons are, in essence, myths.


Book Synopsis Five Myths about Nuclear Weapons by : Ward Wilson

Download or read book Five Myths about Nuclear Weapons written by Ward Wilson and published by Houghton Mifflin Harcourt. This book was released on 2013 with total page 205 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Expanded from an article that created a stir in foreign policy circles, this book shows why five central arguments promoting nuclear weapons are, in essence, myths.

Thinking about the Unthinkable

Thinking about the Unthinkable

Author: Herman Kahn

Publisher:

Published: 1968

Total Pages: 290

ISBN-13:

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Book Synopsis Thinking about the Unthinkable by : Herman Kahn

Download or read book Thinking about the Unthinkable written by Herman Kahn and published by . This book was released on 1968 with total page 290 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

The Paradox of Power

The Paradox of Power

Author: David C. Gompert

Publisher: Government Printing Office

Published: 2020

Total Pages: 236

ISBN-13: 9780160915734

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The second half of the 20th century featured a strategic competition between the United States and the Soviet Union. That competition avoided World War III in part because during the 1950s, scholars like Henry Kissinger, Thomas Schelling, Herman Kahn, and Albert Wohlstetter analyzed the fundamental nature of nuclear deterrence. Decades of arms control negotiations reinforced these early notions of stability and created a mutual understanding that allowed U.S.-Soviet competition to proceed without armed conflict. The first half of the 21st century will be dominated by the relationship between the United States and China. That relationship is likely to contain elements of both cooperation and competition. Territorial disputes such as those over Taiwan and the South China Sea will be an important feature of this competition, but both are traditional disputes, and traditional solutions suggest themselves. A more difficult set of issues relates to U.S.-Chinese competition and cooperation in three domains in which real strategic harm can be inflicted in the current era: nuclear, space, and cyber. Just as a clearer understanding of the fundamental principles of nuclear deterrence maintained adequate stability during the Cold War, a clearer understanding of the characteristics of these three domains can provide the underpinnings of strategic stability between the United States and China in the decades ahead. That is what this book is about.


Book Synopsis The Paradox of Power by : David C. Gompert

Download or read book The Paradox of Power written by David C. Gompert and published by Government Printing Office. This book was released on 2020 with total page 236 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The second half of the 20th century featured a strategic competition between the United States and the Soviet Union. That competition avoided World War III in part because during the 1950s, scholars like Henry Kissinger, Thomas Schelling, Herman Kahn, and Albert Wohlstetter analyzed the fundamental nature of nuclear deterrence. Decades of arms control negotiations reinforced these early notions of stability and created a mutual understanding that allowed U.S.-Soviet competition to proceed without armed conflict. The first half of the 21st century will be dominated by the relationship between the United States and China. That relationship is likely to contain elements of both cooperation and competition. Territorial disputes such as those over Taiwan and the South China Sea will be an important feature of this competition, but both are traditional disputes, and traditional solutions suggest themselves. A more difficult set of issues relates to U.S.-Chinese competition and cooperation in three domains in which real strategic harm can be inflicted in the current era: nuclear, space, and cyber. Just as a clearer understanding of the fundamental principles of nuclear deterrence maintained adequate stability during the Cold War, a clearer understanding of the characteristics of these three domains can provide the underpinnings of strategic stability between the United States and China in the decades ahead. That is what this book is about.

The Nuclear Taboo

The Nuclear Taboo

Author: Nina Tannenwald

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 2007-12-20

Total Pages: 472

ISBN-13: 9780521524285

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Why have nuclear weapons not been used since Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945? Nina Tannenwald disputes the conventional answer of 'deterrence' in favour of what she calls a nuclear taboo - a widespread inhibition on using nuclear weapons - which has arisen in global politics. Drawing on newly released archival sources, Tannenwald traces the rise of the nuclear taboo, the forces that produced it, and its influence, particularly on US leaders. She analyzes four critical instances where US leaders considered using nuclear weapons (Japan 1945, the Korean War, the Vietnam War, and the Gulf War 1991) and examines how the nuclear taboo has repeatedly dissuaded US and other world leaders from resorting to these 'ultimate weapons'. Through a systematic analysis, Tannenwald challenges conventional conceptions of deterrence and offers a compelling argument on the moral bases of nuclear restraint as well as an important insight into how nuclear war can be avoided in the future.


Book Synopsis The Nuclear Taboo by : Nina Tannenwald

Download or read book The Nuclear Taboo written by Nina Tannenwald and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2007-12-20 with total page 472 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Why have nuclear weapons not been used since Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945? Nina Tannenwald disputes the conventional answer of 'deterrence' in favour of what she calls a nuclear taboo - a widespread inhibition on using nuclear weapons - which has arisen in global politics. Drawing on newly released archival sources, Tannenwald traces the rise of the nuclear taboo, the forces that produced it, and its influence, particularly on US leaders. She analyzes four critical instances where US leaders considered using nuclear weapons (Japan 1945, the Korean War, the Vietnam War, and the Gulf War 1991) and examines how the nuclear taboo has repeatedly dissuaded US and other world leaders from resorting to these 'ultimate weapons'. Through a systematic analysis, Tannenwald challenges conventional conceptions of deterrence and offers a compelling argument on the moral bases of nuclear restraint as well as an important insight into how nuclear war can be avoided in the future.