Trade Costs, Market Integration, and Macroeconomic Volatility

Trade Costs, Market Integration, and Macroeconomic Volatility

Author: Mr.Kanda Naknoi

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2003-03-01

Total Pages: 50

ISBN-13: 145184753X

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This paper examines the effects of trade costs on macroeconomic volatility. We first construct a dynamic, two-country general equilibrium model, where the degree of market integration depends directly on trade costs (transport costs, tariffs, etc.). The model is a extension of Obstfeld and Rogoff (1995). Naturally, a reduction in trade costs leads to more market integration, as the relative price of foreign goods falls and households increase their consumption of imported goods. In addition, with more market integration, the model predicts that the variability of the real exchange rate should fall, while the variability of the trade balance should increase. Trade costs have ambiguous effects on the volatility of other macro variables, such as income and consumption. Finally, we present some empirical findings that provide mixed support for the model's predictions.


Book Synopsis Trade Costs, Market Integration, and Macroeconomic Volatility by : Mr.Kanda Naknoi

Download or read book Trade Costs, Market Integration, and Macroeconomic Volatility written by Mr.Kanda Naknoi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2003-03-01 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the effects of trade costs on macroeconomic volatility. We first construct a dynamic, two-country general equilibrium model, where the degree of market integration depends directly on trade costs (transport costs, tariffs, etc.). The model is a extension of Obstfeld and Rogoff (1995). Naturally, a reduction in trade costs leads to more market integration, as the relative price of foreign goods falls and households increase their consumption of imported goods. In addition, with more market integration, the model predicts that the variability of the real exchange rate should fall, while the variability of the trade balance should increase. Trade costs have ambiguous effects on the volatility of other macro variables, such as income and consumption. Finally, we present some empirical findings that provide mixed support for the model's predictions.

Financial Integration and Macroeconomic Volatility

Financial Integration and Macroeconomic Volatility

Author: Mr.Ayhan Kose

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2003-03-01

Total Pages: 29

ISBN-13: 1451846991

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This paper examines the impact of international financial integration on macroeconomic volatility in a large group of industrial and developing economies over the period 1960-99. We report two major results: First, while the volatility of output growth has, on average, declined in the 1990s relative to the three preceding decades, we also document that, on average, the volatility of consumption growth relative to that of income growth has increased for more financially integrated developing economies in the 1990s. Second, increasing financial openness is associated with rising relative volatility of consumption, but only up to a certain threshold. The benefits of financial integration in terms of improved risk-sharing and consumption-smoothing possibilities appear to accrue only beyond this threshold.


Book Synopsis Financial Integration and Macroeconomic Volatility by : Mr.Ayhan Kose

Download or read book Financial Integration and Macroeconomic Volatility written by Mr.Ayhan Kose and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2003-03-01 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the impact of international financial integration on macroeconomic volatility in a large group of industrial and developing economies over the period 1960-99. We report two major results: First, while the volatility of output growth has, on average, declined in the 1990s relative to the three preceding decades, we also document that, on average, the volatility of consumption growth relative to that of income growth has increased for more financially integrated developing economies in the 1990s. Second, increasing financial openness is associated with rising relative volatility of consumption, but only up to a certain threshold. The benefits of financial integration in terms of improved risk-sharing and consumption-smoothing possibilities appear to accrue only beyond this threshold.

How Do Trade and Financial Integration Affect the Relationship Between Growth and Volatility?

How Do Trade and Financial Integration Affect the Relationship Between Growth and Volatility?

Author: M. Ayhan Kose

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2005

Total Pages: 44

ISBN-13:

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The influential work of Ramey and Ramey (1995) highlighted an empirical relationship that has now come to be regarded as conventional wisdom-that output volatility and growth are negatively correlated. We reexamine this relationship in the context of globalization-a term typically used to describe the phenomenon of growing international trade and financial integration that has intensified since the mid-1980s. Using a comprehensive new data set, we document that, while the basic negative association between growth and volatility has been preserved during the 1990s, both trade and financial integration significantly weaken this negative relationship. Specifically, we find that, in a regression of growth on volatility and other controls, the estimated coefficient on the interaction between volatility and trade integration is significantly positive. We find a similar, although less significant, result for the interaction of financial integration with volatility.


Book Synopsis How Do Trade and Financial Integration Affect the Relationship Between Growth and Volatility? by : M. Ayhan Kose

Download or read book How Do Trade and Financial Integration Affect the Relationship Between Growth and Volatility? written by M. Ayhan Kose and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2005 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The influential work of Ramey and Ramey (1995) highlighted an empirical relationship that has now come to be regarded as conventional wisdom-that output volatility and growth are negatively correlated. We reexamine this relationship in the context of globalization-a term typically used to describe the phenomenon of growing international trade and financial integration that has intensified since the mid-1980s. Using a comprehensive new data set, we document that, while the basic negative association between growth and volatility has been preserved during the 1990s, both trade and financial integration significantly weaken this negative relationship. Specifically, we find that, in a regression of growth on volatility and other controls, the estimated coefficient on the interaction between volatility and trade integration is significantly positive. We find a similar, although less significant, result for the interaction of financial integration with volatility.

Globalisation and Macroeconomic Volatility

Globalisation and Macroeconomic Volatility

Author: Michael Böhl

Publisher: Europaischer Hochschulverlag Gmbh & Company Kg

Published: 2009

Total Pages: 72

ISBN-13: 9783941482180

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Does globalisation affect economic stability? And if so, how? The interest of the book is in supposed effects of globalisation on macroeconomic volatility. Globalisation in economic terms can be defined as international integration of goods and factor markets. During the last decades, goods trade and financial flows have risen strikingly. Macroeconomic volatility can refer to several aggregates such as output and its components, prices and employment. During the "Great Moderation," variability of economic growth and inflation rates has changed significantly. The first part focuses on the possible effect of international goods market integration on output volatility. Three candidate mechanisms are theoretically introduced and empirically tested. Those channels relate to external risk, offshoring and sudden stops. The second part describes other potential determinants of output volatility, such as the international integration of financial markets, monetary and fiscal policy, and shocks. Each determinant is theoretically described and empirically revised. The importance of globalisation relative to other sources in affecting output volatility is evaluated. The summarised findings of the analysis: A careful thesis about effects of globalisation on output volatility should be differentiated along several dimensions. Firstly, globalisation of goods and financial markets must be distinguished. Secondly, even for international goods trade various mechanisms affect the volatility of output differently. Thirdly, for each channel the direction and weight of the effect depend on country characteristics. In a conclusion the author offers alternative ways of interpretation for economic policy.


Book Synopsis Globalisation and Macroeconomic Volatility by : Michael Böhl

Download or read book Globalisation and Macroeconomic Volatility written by Michael Böhl and published by Europaischer Hochschulverlag Gmbh & Company Kg. This book was released on 2009 with total page 72 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Does globalisation affect economic stability? And if so, how? The interest of the book is in supposed effects of globalisation on macroeconomic volatility. Globalisation in economic terms can be defined as international integration of goods and factor markets. During the last decades, goods trade and financial flows have risen strikingly. Macroeconomic volatility can refer to several aggregates such as output and its components, prices and employment. During the "Great Moderation," variability of economic growth and inflation rates has changed significantly. The first part focuses on the possible effect of international goods market integration on output volatility. Three candidate mechanisms are theoretically introduced and empirically tested. Those channels relate to external risk, offshoring and sudden stops. The second part describes other potential determinants of output volatility, such as the international integration of financial markets, monetary and fiscal policy, and shocks. Each determinant is theoretically described and empirically revised. The importance of globalisation relative to other sources in affecting output volatility is evaluated. The summarised findings of the analysis: A careful thesis about effects of globalisation on output volatility should be differentiated along several dimensions. Firstly, globalisation of goods and financial markets must be distinguished. Secondly, even for international goods trade various mechanisms affect the volatility of output differently. Thirdly, for each channel the direction and weight of the effect depend on country characteristics. In a conclusion the author offers alternative ways of interpretation for economic policy.

Limiting Currency Volatility to Stimulate Goods Market Integration

Limiting Currency Volatility to Stimulate Goods Market Integration

Author: David C. Parsley

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2001-12

Total Pages: 38

ISBN-13:

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This paper empirically studies the effect of instrumental and institutional stabilization of the exchange rate on the integration of goods markets. An instrumental stabilization of the exchange rate is accomplished through intervention in the foreign exchange market, or by monetary policies. An institutional stabilization, is an adoption a currency board or a common currency. In contrast to the literature that employs data on the volume of trade, an important novelty of this paper is the use of a 3-dimensional panel of prices of 95 very disaggregated goods (e.g., light bulbs) in 83 cities from around the world from 1990 to 2000. We find that goods market integration is increasing over time and is inversely related to distance, exchange rate variability, and tariff barriers. In addition, the impact of an institutional stabilization of the exchange rate provides a stimulus to goods market integration that goes far beyond an instrumental stabilization. Among the institutional arrangements, long-term currency unions demonstrate greater integration than more recent currency boards. All of them can improve their integration further relative to a U.S. benchmark.


Book Synopsis Limiting Currency Volatility to Stimulate Goods Market Integration by : David C. Parsley

Download or read book Limiting Currency Volatility to Stimulate Goods Market Integration written by David C. Parsley and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2001-12 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper empirically studies the effect of instrumental and institutional stabilization of the exchange rate on the integration of goods markets. An instrumental stabilization of the exchange rate is accomplished through intervention in the foreign exchange market, or by monetary policies. An institutional stabilization, is an adoption a currency board or a common currency. In contrast to the literature that employs data on the volume of trade, an important novelty of this paper is the use of a 3-dimensional panel of prices of 95 very disaggregated goods (e.g., light bulbs) in 83 cities from around the world from 1990 to 2000. We find that goods market integration is increasing over time and is inversely related to distance, exchange rate variability, and tariff barriers. In addition, the impact of an institutional stabilization of the exchange rate provides a stimulus to goods market integration that goes far beyond an instrumental stabilization. Among the institutional arrangements, long-term currency unions demonstrate greater integration than more recent currency boards. All of them can improve their integration further relative to a U.S. benchmark.

The Gains and Pains of Financial Integration and Trade Liberalization

The Gains and Pains of Financial Integration and Trade Liberalization

Author: Rajib Bhattacharyya

Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing

Published: 2019-11-26

Total Pages: 201

ISBN-13: 1838670068

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Geared towards policy makers, researchers, academics, and business and management professionals, The Gains and Pains of Financial Integration and Trade Liberalization helps readers develop new theories and models for analysing the future trends in finance and trade-related issues.


Book Synopsis The Gains and Pains of Financial Integration and Trade Liberalization by : Rajib Bhattacharyya

Download or read book The Gains and Pains of Financial Integration and Trade Liberalization written by Rajib Bhattacharyya and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2019-11-26 with total page 201 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Geared towards policy makers, researchers, academics, and business and management professionals, The Gains and Pains of Financial Integration and Trade Liberalization helps readers develop new theories and models for analysing the future trends in finance and trade-related issues.

Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade Flows--Some New Evidence

Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade Flows--Some New Evidence

Author: International Monetary Fund

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2004-05-19

Total Pages: 132

ISBN-13: 1498330282

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Book Synopsis Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade Flows--Some New Evidence by : International Monetary Fund

Download or read book Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade Flows--Some New Evidence written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2004-05-19 with total page 132 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: NULL

International Financial Market Integration

International Financial Market Integration

Author: Stanley R. Stansell

Publisher: Wiley-Blackwell

Published: 1993-01-01

Total Pages: 404

ISBN-13: 9781557862662

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The rapid growth of international financial markets and their increasing integration has created a unique set of problems in the understanding of international finance. This important new book surveys the many aspects of financial market integration. The markets examined range from those of developed countries such as the US, Japan, and European countries to less developed countries. A section on the emerging markets in the CIS and Baltic States has also been included. Areas covered include capital market segmentation, an examination of the US, Hong Kong, and Singapore markets, the foreign and domestic balance sheet strategies of US banks, international financial market integration and commercial banks, the European monetary system, international integration of the CIS and Baltic States emanating from the USSR, an overview of Japanese finance, international transmission of stock market movements, and international capital markets. International Financial Market Integration is a comprehensive and valuable reference for academics, graduate students, and researchers in international finance.


Book Synopsis International Financial Market Integration by : Stanley R. Stansell

Download or read book International Financial Market Integration written by Stanley R. Stansell and published by Wiley-Blackwell. This book was released on 1993-01-01 with total page 404 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The rapid growth of international financial markets and their increasing integration has created a unique set of problems in the understanding of international finance. This important new book surveys the many aspects of financial market integration. The markets examined range from those of developed countries such as the US, Japan, and European countries to less developed countries. A section on the emerging markets in the CIS and Baltic States has also been included. Areas covered include capital market segmentation, an examination of the US, Hong Kong, and Singapore markets, the foreign and domestic balance sheet strategies of US banks, international financial market integration and commercial banks, the European monetary system, international integration of the CIS and Baltic States emanating from the USSR, an overview of Japanese finance, international transmission of stock market movements, and international capital markets. International Financial Market Integration is a comprehensive and valuable reference for academics, graduate students, and researchers in international finance.

International Financial Integration

International Financial Integration

Author: Mr.Gian Milesi-Ferretti

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2003-04-01

Total Pages: 46

ISBN-13: 1451850905

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In recent decades, the foreign assets and liabilities of advanced economies have grown rapidly relative to GDP, with the increase in gross cross-holdings far exceeding changes in the size of net positions. Moreover, the portfolio equity and FDI categories have grown in importance relative to international debt stocks. This paper describes the broad trends in international financial integration for a sample of industrial countries and seeks to explain the cross-country and time-series variation in the size of international balance sheets. It also examines the behavior of the rates of return on foreign assets and liabilities, relating them to "market" returns.


Book Synopsis International Financial Integration by : Mr.Gian Milesi-Ferretti

Download or read book International Financial Integration written by Mr.Gian Milesi-Ferretti and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2003-04-01 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In recent decades, the foreign assets and liabilities of advanced economies have grown rapidly relative to GDP, with the increase in gross cross-holdings far exceeding changes in the size of net positions. Moreover, the portfolio equity and FDI categories have grown in importance relative to international debt stocks. This paper describes the broad trends in international financial integration for a sample of industrial countries and seeks to explain the cross-country and time-series variation in the size of international balance sheets. It also examines the behavior of the rates of return on foreign assets and liabilities, relating them to "market" returns.

Effects of Financial Globalization on Developing Countries

Effects of Financial Globalization on Developing Countries

Author: Mr.Ayhan Kose

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2003-09-03

Total Pages: 68

ISBN-13: 9781589062214

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This study provides a candid, systematic, and critical review of recent evidence on this complex subject. Based on a review of the literature and some new empirical evidence, it finds that (1) in spite of an apparently strong theoretical presumption, it is difficult to detect a strong and robust causal relationship between financial integration and economic growth; (2) contrary to theoretical predictions, financial integration appears to be associated with increases in consumption volatility (both in absolute terms and relative to income volatility) in many developing countries; and (3) there appear to be threshold effects in both of these relationships, which may be related to absorptive capacity. Some recent evidence suggests that sound macroeconomic frameworks and, in particular, good governance are both quantitatively and qualitatively important in affecting developing countries’ experiences with financial globalization.


Book Synopsis Effects of Financial Globalization on Developing Countries by : Mr.Ayhan Kose

Download or read book Effects of Financial Globalization on Developing Countries written by Mr.Ayhan Kose and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2003-09-03 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study provides a candid, systematic, and critical review of recent evidence on this complex subject. Based on a review of the literature and some new empirical evidence, it finds that (1) in spite of an apparently strong theoretical presumption, it is difficult to detect a strong and robust causal relationship between financial integration and economic growth; (2) contrary to theoretical predictions, financial integration appears to be associated with increases in consumption volatility (both in absolute terms and relative to income volatility) in many developing countries; and (3) there appear to be threshold effects in both of these relationships, which may be related to absorptive capacity. Some recent evidence suggests that sound macroeconomic frameworks and, in particular, good governance are both quantitatively and qualitatively important in affecting developing countries’ experiences with financial globalization.