Understanding Mesoscale Error Growth and Predictability

Understanding Mesoscale Error Growth and Predictability

Author: Michael A. Kuypers

Publisher:

Published: 2000-06

Total Pages: 115

ISBN-13: 9781423537328

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Technological advances have made atmospheric mesoscale modeling at very fine resolutions readily available to a great number of organizations. Though initial operational results show some skill with respect to synoptic scale forecasts, many of the problems associated with mesoscale error growth and predictability have been ignored. Understanding mesoscale error is critical to accurately interpreting mesoscale model results and output from tactical decision aids (TDA's). This study examines mesoscale error growth and predictability through controlled numerical model experiments. A known "true" atmosphere is created through the use of the US Navy's Coupled Oceanographic/ Atmospheric Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS). Virtual observations are randomly sampled from this atmosphere to provide data for ingest into forecasts using the NCARIPenn State MM5 mesoscale model. Forecast results for ten cases are compared against the "true" atmospheric solution and error statistics are calculated for wind speed and geopotential height fields. Results show how error growth and predictability are affected by different variables such as boundary conditions, weather regime, sample size and sample distribution. A scale separation of error is also performed in order to assess the impact of synoptic scale error on mesoscale error.


Book Synopsis Understanding Mesoscale Error Growth and Predictability by : Michael A. Kuypers

Download or read book Understanding Mesoscale Error Growth and Predictability written by Michael A. Kuypers and published by . This book was released on 2000-06 with total page 115 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Technological advances have made atmospheric mesoscale modeling at very fine resolutions readily available to a great number of organizations. Though initial operational results show some skill with respect to synoptic scale forecasts, many of the problems associated with mesoscale error growth and predictability have been ignored. Understanding mesoscale error is critical to accurately interpreting mesoscale model results and output from tactical decision aids (TDA's). This study examines mesoscale error growth and predictability through controlled numerical model experiments. A known "true" atmosphere is created through the use of the US Navy's Coupled Oceanographic/ Atmospheric Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS). Virtual observations are randomly sampled from this atmosphere to provide data for ingest into forecasts using the NCARIPenn State MM5 mesoscale model. Forecast results for ten cases are compared against the "true" atmospheric solution and error statistics are calculated for wind speed and geopotential height fields. Results show how error growth and predictability are affected by different variables such as boundary conditions, weather regime, sample size and sample distribution. A scale separation of error is also performed in order to assess the impact of synoptic scale error on mesoscale error.


Dynamics and Predictability of Large-Scale, High-Impact Weather and Climate Events

Dynamics and Predictability of Large-Scale, High-Impact Weather and Climate Events

Author: Jianping Li

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Published: 2016-03-24

Total Pages: 371

ISBN-13: 1316467740

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Based largely on an International Commission on Dynamical Meteorology (ICDM) workshop, this timely volume, written by leading researchers in the field, covers a range of important research issues related to high-impact weather and extreme climate events. Dynamical linkages between these extremes and various atmospheric and ocean phenomena are examined, including Atlantic Multidecadal, North Atlantic, and Madden–Julian Oscillations; Annular Modes; tropical cyclones; and Asian monsoons. This book also examines the predictability of high-impact weather and extreme climate events on multiple time scales. Highlighting recent research and new advances in the field, this book enhances understanding of dynamical and physical processes associated with these events to help managers and policy makers make informed decisions to manage risk and prevent or mitigate disasters. It also provides guidance on future research directions in atmospheric science, meteorology, climate science, and weather forecasting, for experts and young scientists.


Book Synopsis Dynamics and Predictability of Large-Scale, High-Impact Weather and Climate Events by : Jianping Li

Download or read book Dynamics and Predictability of Large-Scale, High-Impact Weather and Climate Events written by Jianping Li and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2016-03-24 with total page 371 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Based largely on an International Commission on Dynamical Meteorology (ICDM) workshop, this timely volume, written by leading researchers in the field, covers a range of important research issues related to high-impact weather and extreme climate events. Dynamical linkages between these extremes and various atmospheric and ocean phenomena are examined, including Atlantic Multidecadal, North Atlantic, and Madden–Julian Oscillations; Annular Modes; tropical cyclones; and Asian monsoons. This book also examines the predictability of high-impact weather and extreme climate events on multiple time scales. Highlighting recent research and new advances in the field, this book enhances understanding of dynamical and physical processes associated with these events to help managers and policy makers make informed decisions to manage risk and prevent or mitigate disasters. It also provides guidance on future research directions in atmospheric science, meteorology, climate science, and weather forecasting, for experts and young scientists.


Mountain Weather Research and Forecasting

Mountain Weather Research and Forecasting

Author: Fotini K. Chow

Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media

Published: 2012-08-30

Total Pages: 760

ISBN-13: 9400740980

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This book provides readers with a broad understanding of the fundamental principles driving atmospheric flow over complex terrain and provides historical context for recent developments and future direction for researchers and forecasters. The topics in this book are expanded from those presented at the Mountain Weather Workshop, which took place in Whistler, British Columbia, Canada, August 5-8, 2008. The inspiration for the workshop came from the American Meteorological Society (AMS) Mountain Meteorology Committee and was designed to bridge the gap between the research and forecasting communities by providing a forum for extended discussion and joint education. For academic researchers, this book provides some insight into issues important to the forecasting community. For the forecasting community, this book provides training on fundamentals of atmospheric processes over mountainous regions, which are notoriously difficult to predict. The book also helps to provide a better understanding of current research and forecast challenges, including the latest contributions and advancements to the field. The book begins with an overview of mountain weather and forecasting chal- lenges specific to complex terrain, followed by chapters that focus on diurnal mountain/valley flows that develop under calm conditions and dynamically-driven winds under strong forcing. The focus then shifts to other phenomena specific to mountain regions: Alpine foehn, boundary layer and air quality issues, orographic precipitation processes, and microphysics parameterizations. Having covered the major physical processes, the book shifts to observation and modelling techniques used in mountain regions, including model configuration and parameterizations such as turbulence, and model applications in operational forecasting. The book concludes with a discussion of the current state of research and forecasting in complex terrain, including a vision of how to bridge the gap in the future.


Book Synopsis Mountain Weather Research and Forecasting by : Fotini K. Chow

Download or read book Mountain Weather Research and Forecasting written by Fotini K. Chow and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-08-30 with total page 760 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides readers with a broad understanding of the fundamental principles driving atmospheric flow over complex terrain and provides historical context for recent developments and future direction for researchers and forecasters. The topics in this book are expanded from those presented at the Mountain Weather Workshop, which took place in Whistler, British Columbia, Canada, August 5-8, 2008. The inspiration for the workshop came from the American Meteorological Society (AMS) Mountain Meteorology Committee and was designed to bridge the gap between the research and forecasting communities by providing a forum for extended discussion and joint education. For academic researchers, this book provides some insight into issues important to the forecasting community. For the forecasting community, this book provides training on fundamentals of atmospheric processes over mountainous regions, which are notoriously difficult to predict. The book also helps to provide a better understanding of current research and forecast challenges, including the latest contributions and advancements to the field. The book begins with an overview of mountain weather and forecasting chal- lenges specific to complex terrain, followed by chapters that focus on diurnal mountain/valley flows that develop under calm conditions and dynamically-driven winds under strong forcing. The focus then shifts to other phenomena specific to mountain regions: Alpine foehn, boundary layer and air quality issues, orographic precipitation processes, and microphysics parameterizations. Having covered the major physical processes, the book shifts to observation and modelling techniques used in mountain regions, including model configuration and parameterizations such as turbulence, and model applications in operational forecasting. The book concludes with a discussion of the current state of research and forecasting in complex terrain, including a vision of how to bridge the gap in the future.


Mesoscale Meteorology and Forecasting

Mesoscale Meteorology and Forecasting

Author: Peter Ray

Publisher: Springer

Published: 2015-03-30

Total Pages: 803

ISBN-13: 1935704206

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This book is a collection of selected lectures presented at the ‘Intensive Course on Mesoscale Meteorology and Forecasting’ in Boulder, USA, in 1984. It includes mesoscale classifications, observing techniques and systems, internally generated circulations, mesoscale convective systems, externally forced circulations, modeling and short-range forecasting techniques. This is a highly illustrated book and comprehensive work, including extensive bibliographic references. It is aimed at graduates in meteorology and for professionals working in the field.


Book Synopsis Mesoscale Meteorology and Forecasting by : Peter Ray

Download or read book Mesoscale Meteorology and Forecasting written by Peter Ray and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-03-30 with total page 803 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is a collection of selected lectures presented at the ‘Intensive Course on Mesoscale Meteorology and Forecasting’ in Boulder, USA, in 1984. It includes mesoscale classifications, observing techniques and systems, internally generated circulations, mesoscale convective systems, externally forced circulations, modeling and short-range forecasting techniques. This is a highly illustrated book and comprehensive work, including extensive bibliographic references. It is aimed at graduates in meteorology and for professionals working in the field.


Advances in Geophysics

Advances in Geophysics

Author:

Publisher: Academic Press

Published: 1985-10-30

Total Pages: 429

ISBN-13: 9780080568584

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Advances in Geophysics


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Download or read book Advances in Geophysics written by and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 1985-10-30 with total page 429 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Advances in Geophysics


When Weather Matters

When Weather Matters

Author: National Research Council

Publisher: National Academies Press

Published: 2010-11-09

Total Pages: 199

ISBN-13: 0309177022

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The past 15 years have seen marked progress in observing, understanding, and predicting weather. At the same time, the United States has failed to match or surpass progress in operational numerical weather prediction achieved by other nations and failed to realize its prediction potential; as a result, the nation is not mitigating weather impacts to the extent possible. This book represents a sense of the weather community as guided by the discussions of a Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate community workshop held in summer 2009. The book puts forth the committee's judgment on the most pressing high level, weather-focused research challenges and research to operations needs, and makes corresponding recommendations. The book addresses issues including observations, global non-hydrostatic coupled modeling, data assimilation, probabilistic forecasting, and quantitative precipitation and hydrologic forecasting. The book also identifies three important, emerging issues-predictions of very high impact weather, urban meteorology, and renewable energy development-not recognized or emphasized in previous studies. Cutting across all of these challenges is a set of socioeconomic issues, whose importance and emphasis-while increasing-has been undervalued and underemphasized in the past and warrants greater recognition and priority today.


Book Synopsis When Weather Matters by : National Research Council

Download or read book When Weather Matters written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2010-11-09 with total page 199 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The past 15 years have seen marked progress in observing, understanding, and predicting weather. At the same time, the United States has failed to match or surpass progress in operational numerical weather prediction achieved by other nations and failed to realize its prediction potential; as a result, the nation is not mitigating weather impacts to the extent possible. This book represents a sense of the weather community as guided by the discussions of a Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate community workshop held in summer 2009. The book puts forth the committee's judgment on the most pressing high level, weather-focused research challenges and research to operations needs, and makes corresponding recommendations. The book addresses issues including observations, global non-hydrostatic coupled modeling, data assimilation, probabilistic forecasting, and quantitative precipitation and hydrologic forecasting. The book also identifies three important, emerging issues-predictions of very high impact weather, urban meteorology, and renewable energy development-not recognized or emphasized in previous studies. Cutting across all of these challenges is a set of socioeconomic issues, whose importance and emphasis-while increasing-has been undervalued and underemphasized in the past and warrants greater recognition and priority today.


Monthly Weather Review

Monthly Weather Review

Author:

Publisher:

Published: 2007

Total Pages: 1652

ISBN-13:

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Book Synopsis Monthly Weather Review by :

Download or read book Monthly Weather Review written by and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 1652 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:


Predictability of Fluid Motions

Predictability of Fluid Motions

Author: American Institute of Physics

Publisher: American Institute of Physics

Published: 1984

Total Pages: 640

ISBN-13:

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Book Synopsis Predictability of Fluid Motions by : American Institute of Physics

Download or read book Predictability of Fluid Motions written by American Institute of Physics and published by American Institute of Physics. This book was released on 1984 with total page 640 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:


Encyclopedia of Atmospheric Sciences

Encyclopedia of Atmospheric Sciences

Author: Gerald R. North

Publisher: Elsevier

Published: 2014-09-14

Total Pages: 2874

ISBN-13: 0123822262

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Encyclopedia of Atmospheric Sciences, Second Edition, Six Volume Set is an authoritative resource covering all aspects of atmospheric sciences, including both theory and applications. With more than 320 articles and 1,600 figures and photographs, this revised version of the award-winning first edition offers comprehensive coverage of this important field. The six volumes in this set contain broad-ranging articles on topics such as atmospheric chemistry, biogeochemical cycles, boundary layers, clouds, general circulation, global change, mesoscale meteorology, ozone, radar, satellite remote sensing, and weather prediction. The Encyclopedia is an ideal resource for academia, government, and industry in the fields of atmospheric, ocean, and environmental sciences. It is written at a level that allows undergraduate students to understand the material, while providing active researchers with the latest information in the field. Covers all aspects of atmospheric sciences—including both theory and applications Presents more than 320 articles and more than 1,600 figures and photographs Broad-ranging articles include topics such as atmospheric chemistry, biogeochemical cycles, boundary layers, clouds, general circulation, global change, mesoscale meteorology, ozone, radar, satellite remote sensing, and weather prediction An ideal resource for academia, government, and industry in the fields of atmospheric, ocean, and environmental sciences


Book Synopsis Encyclopedia of Atmospheric Sciences by : Gerald R. North

Download or read book Encyclopedia of Atmospheric Sciences written by Gerald R. North and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2014-09-14 with total page 2874 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Encyclopedia of Atmospheric Sciences, Second Edition, Six Volume Set is an authoritative resource covering all aspects of atmospheric sciences, including both theory and applications. With more than 320 articles and 1,600 figures and photographs, this revised version of the award-winning first edition offers comprehensive coverage of this important field. The six volumes in this set contain broad-ranging articles on topics such as atmospheric chemistry, biogeochemical cycles, boundary layers, clouds, general circulation, global change, mesoscale meteorology, ozone, radar, satellite remote sensing, and weather prediction. The Encyclopedia is an ideal resource for academia, government, and industry in the fields of atmospheric, ocean, and environmental sciences. It is written at a level that allows undergraduate students to understand the material, while providing active researchers with the latest information in the field. Covers all aspects of atmospheric sciences—including both theory and applications Presents more than 320 articles and more than 1,600 figures and photographs Broad-ranging articles include topics such as atmospheric chemistry, biogeochemical cycles, boundary layers, clouds, general circulation, global change, mesoscale meteorology, ozone, radar, satellite remote sensing, and weather prediction An ideal resource for academia, government, and industry in the fields of atmospheric, ocean, and environmental sciences


Nowcasting II

Nowcasting II

Author: B. Battrick

Publisher:

Published: 1984

Total Pages: 548

ISBN-13:

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Book Synopsis Nowcasting II by : B. Battrick

Download or read book Nowcasting II written by B. Battrick and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 548 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: