Unveiling the Effects of Foreign Exchange Interventions: Evidence from the Kyrgyz Republic

Unveiling the Effects of Foreign Exchange Interventions: Evidence from the Kyrgyz Republic

Author: Mr.Tigran Poghosyan

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Published: 2020-10-30

Total Pages: 30

ISBN-13: 9781513560151

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This paper analyzes determinants and consequences of FX interventions in the Kyrgyz Republic. Most of the literature on the topic focuses on advanced and emerging economies and this paper provides new evidence from a low-income country. We find that FX interventions take place in response to movements in the exchange rate and its volatility. There is also evidence of “leaning against the wind”, which is more pronounced for relatively larger FX sales and purchases. The “leaning against the wind” is asymmetric toward FX sales and largely reflects leaning against depreciation of domestic currency. We document a varying degree of de-facto exchange rate stability despite the de-jure floating exchange rate regime. During most of the sample, the exchange rate management index was relatively low in line with the floating exchange rate regime, with the exception of the period from 2018 Q4 until the COVID-19 shock, during which the exchange rate management index was relatively high.


Book Synopsis Unveiling the Effects of Foreign Exchange Interventions: Evidence from the Kyrgyz Republic by : Mr.Tigran Poghosyan

Download or read book Unveiling the Effects of Foreign Exchange Interventions: Evidence from the Kyrgyz Republic written by Mr.Tigran Poghosyan and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2020-10-30 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyzes determinants and consequences of FX interventions in the Kyrgyz Republic. Most of the literature on the topic focuses on advanced and emerging economies and this paper provides new evidence from a low-income country. We find that FX interventions take place in response to movements in the exchange rate and its volatility. There is also evidence of “leaning against the wind”, which is more pronounced for relatively larger FX sales and purchases. The “leaning against the wind” is asymmetric toward FX sales and largely reflects leaning against depreciation of domestic currency. We document a varying degree of de-facto exchange rate stability despite the de-jure floating exchange rate regime. During most of the sample, the exchange rate management index was relatively low in line with the floating exchange rate regime, with the exception of the period from 2018 Q4 until the COVID-19 shock, during which the exchange rate management index was relatively high.

Republic of Moldova: Selected Issues

Republic of Moldova: Selected Issues

Author: International Monetary

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2022-02-23

Total Pages: 79

ISBN-13:

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Selected Issues


Book Synopsis Republic of Moldova: Selected Issues by : International Monetary

Download or read book Republic of Moldova: Selected Issues written by International Monetary and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-02-23 with total page 79 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Selected Issues

Strengthening Monetary Policy Frameworks in the Caucasus and Central Asia

Strengthening Monetary Policy Frameworks in the Caucasus and Central Asia

Author: Mr. Tigran Poghosyan

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2023-08-28

Total Pages: 54

ISBN-13:

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Amidst a global backdrop of persistent post-COVID inflation and spillovers from Russia’s war in Ukraine, the countries of the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) region have faced strong price pressures in recent years. Inflation is estimated to have peaked in early 2023, but still exceeds central bank targets. In particular, core inflation remains stubbornly high reflecting a combination of second-round effects, surges in global energy and food prices, and domestic demand pressures. More broadly, uncertainty and downside risks also weigh on the economic outlook, including due to regional tensions, financial turmoil related to international monetary policy normalization, and a growth slowdown in key trading partners. In this context, CCA countries’ ability to contain inflationary pressures and anchor inflation expectations hinges on the credibility and effectiveness of their monetary policy frameworks. Since gaining independence in the 1990s, countries in the CCA region have made considerable progress in modernizing their monetary policy frameworks. CCA central banks have strengthened their legal frameworks and established broad de-jure independence. Armenia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, and Uzbekistan are transitioning to inflation targeting regimes, while the central banks of Azerbaijan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan rely on the exchange rate as an operational target. However, the post-COVID surge in inflation has highlighted the limitations of current frameworks and triggered a fresh policy debate on the need to strengthen monetary policy effectiveness in the CCA. This paper reviews the CCA region’s monetary policy landscape, highlights challenges in monetary policy design and implementation, and identifies areas that warrant strengthening. It draws on original surveys of country authorities, IMF country teams, and the work by Unsal and others (2022). It uses novel empirical work to analyze monetary policy transmission, the link between foreign exchange interventions and exchange rate dynamics, the drivers of financial de-dollarization, and the effects of central bank communication in the CCA.


Book Synopsis Strengthening Monetary Policy Frameworks in the Caucasus and Central Asia by : Mr. Tigran Poghosyan

Download or read book Strengthening Monetary Policy Frameworks in the Caucasus and Central Asia written by Mr. Tigran Poghosyan and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-08-28 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Amidst a global backdrop of persistent post-COVID inflation and spillovers from Russia’s war in Ukraine, the countries of the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) region have faced strong price pressures in recent years. Inflation is estimated to have peaked in early 2023, but still exceeds central bank targets. In particular, core inflation remains stubbornly high reflecting a combination of second-round effects, surges in global energy and food prices, and domestic demand pressures. More broadly, uncertainty and downside risks also weigh on the economic outlook, including due to regional tensions, financial turmoil related to international monetary policy normalization, and a growth slowdown in key trading partners. In this context, CCA countries’ ability to contain inflationary pressures and anchor inflation expectations hinges on the credibility and effectiveness of their monetary policy frameworks. Since gaining independence in the 1990s, countries in the CCA region have made considerable progress in modernizing their monetary policy frameworks. CCA central banks have strengthened their legal frameworks and established broad de-jure independence. Armenia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, and Uzbekistan are transitioning to inflation targeting regimes, while the central banks of Azerbaijan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan rely on the exchange rate as an operational target. However, the post-COVID surge in inflation has highlighted the limitations of current frameworks and triggered a fresh policy debate on the need to strengthen monetary policy effectiveness in the CCA. This paper reviews the CCA region’s monetary policy landscape, highlights challenges in monetary policy design and implementation, and identifies areas that warrant strengthening. It draws on original surveys of country authorities, IMF country teams, and the work by Unsal and others (2022). It uses novel empirical work to analyze monetary policy transmission, the link between foreign exchange interventions and exchange rate dynamics, the drivers of financial de-dollarization, and the effects of central bank communication in the CCA.

Foreign Exchange Intervention Rules for Central Banks: A Risk-based Framework

Foreign Exchange Intervention Rules for Central Banks: A Risk-based Framework

Author: Romain Lafarguette

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2021-02-12

Total Pages: 33

ISBN-13: 1513569406

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This paper presents a rule for foreign exchange interventions (FXI), designed to preserve financial stability in floating exchange rate arrangements. The FXI rule addresses a market failure: the absence of hedging solution for tail exchange rate risk in the market (i.e. high volatility). Market impairment or overshoot of exchange rate between two equilibria could generate high volatility and threaten financial stability due to unhedged exposure to exchange rate risk in the economy. The rule uses the concept of Value at Risk (VaR) to define FXI triggers. While it provides to the market a hedge against tail risk, the rule allows the exchange rate to smoothly adjust to new equilibria. In addition, the rule is budget neutral over the medium term, encourages a prudent risk management in the market, and is more resilient to speculative attacks than other rules, such as fixed-volatility rules. The empirical methodology is backtested on Banco Mexico’s FXIs data between 2008 and 2016.


Book Synopsis Foreign Exchange Intervention Rules for Central Banks: A Risk-based Framework by : Romain Lafarguette

Download or read book Foreign Exchange Intervention Rules for Central Banks: A Risk-based Framework written by Romain Lafarguette and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-02-12 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents a rule for foreign exchange interventions (FXI), designed to preserve financial stability in floating exchange rate arrangements. The FXI rule addresses a market failure: the absence of hedging solution for tail exchange rate risk in the market (i.e. high volatility). Market impairment or overshoot of exchange rate between two equilibria could generate high volatility and threaten financial stability due to unhedged exposure to exchange rate risk in the economy. The rule uses the concept of Value at Risk (VaR) to define FXI triggers. While it provides to the market a hedge against tail risk, the rule allows the exchange rate to smoothly adjust to new equilibria. In addition, the rule is budget neutral over the medium term, encourages a prudent risk management in the market, and is more resilient to speculative attacks than other rules, such as fixed-volatility rules. The empirical methodology is backtested on Banco Mexico’s FXIs data between 2008 and 2016.

The Relative Effectiveness of Spot and Derivatives Based Intervention

The Relative Effectiveness of Spot and Derivatives Based Intervention

Author: Milan Nedeljkovic

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2017-01-24

Total Pages: 35

ISBN-13: 1475571038

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This paper studies the relative effectiveness of foreign exchange intervention in spot and derivatives markets. We make use of Brazilian data where spot and non-deliverable futures based intervention have been used in tandem for more than a decade. The analysis finds evidence in favor of a significant link between both modes of intervention and the first two moments of the real/dollar exchange rate. As predicted by theory for the case of negligible convertibility risk, the impact of spot market intervention in our baseline sample is strikingly similar to that achieved through futures based intervention worth an equivalent amount in notional principal.


Book Synopsis The Relative Effectiveness of Spot and Derivatives Based Intervention by : Milan Nedeljkovic

Download or read book The Relative Effectiveness of Spot and Derivatives Based Intervention written by Milan Nedeljkovic and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-01-24 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies the relative effectiveness of foreign exchange intervention in spot and derivatives markets. We make use of Brazilian data where spot and non-deliverable futures based intervention have been used in tandem for more than a decade. The analysis finds evidence in favor of a significant link between both modes of intervention and the first two moments of the real/dollar exchange rate. As predicted by theory for the case of negligible convertibility risk, the impact of spot market intervention in our baseline sample is strikingly similar to that achieved through futures based intervention worth an equivalent amount in notional principal.

Inflation Targeting and Exchange Rate Management In Less Developed Countries

Inflation Targeting and Exchange Rate Management In Less Developed Countries

Author: Mr.Marco Airaudo

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2016-03-08

Total Pages: 65

ISBN-13: 1475523165

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We analyze coordination of monetary and exchange rate policy in a two-sector model of a small open economy featuring imperfect substitution between domestic and foreign financial assets. Our central finding is that management of the exchange rate greatly enhances the efficacy of inflation targeting. In a flexible exchange rate system, inflation targeting incurs a high risk of indeterminacy where macroeconomic fluctuations can be driven by self-fulfilling expectations. Moreover, small inflation shocks may escalate into much larger increases in inflation ex post. Both problems disappear when the central bank leans heavily against the wind in a managed float.


Book Synopsis Inflation Targeting and Exchange Rate Management In Less Developed Countries by : Mr.Marco Airaudo

Download or read book Inflation Targeting and Exchange Rate Management In Less Developed Countries written by Mr.Marco Airaudo and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-03-08 with total page 65 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We analyze coordination of monetary and exchange rate policy in a two-sector model of a small open economy featuring imperfect substitution between domestic and foreign financial assets. Our central finding is that management of the exchange rate greatly enhances the efficacy of inflation targeting. In a flexible exchange rate system, inflation targeting incurs a high risk of indeterminacy where macroeconomic fluctuations can be driven by self-fulfilling expectations. Moreover, small inflation shocks may escalate into much larger increases in inflation ex post. Both problems disappear when the central bank leans heavily against the wind in a managed float.

Monetary Policy Transmission in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies

Monetary Policy Transmission in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies

Author: Mr.Luis Brandao-Marques

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2020-02-21

Total Pages: 54

ISBN-13: 1513529730

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Central banks in emerging and developing economies (EMDEs) have been modernizing their monetary policy frameworks, often moving toward inflation targeting (IT). However, questions regarding the strength of monetary policy transmission from interest rates to inflation and output have often stalled progress. We conduct a novel empirical analysis using Jordà’s (2005) approach for 40 EMDEs to shed a light on monetary transmission in these countries. We find that interest rate hikes reduce output growth and inflation, once we explicitly account for the behavior of the exchange rate. Having a modern monetary policy framework—adopting IT and independent and transparent central banks—matters more for monetary transmission than financial development.


Book Synopsis Monetary Policy Transmission in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies by : Mr.Luis Brandao-Marques

Download or read book Monetary Policy Transmission in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies written by Mr.Luis Brandao-Marques and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-02-21 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Central banks in emerging and developing economies (EMDEs) have been modernizing their monetary policy frameworks, often moving toward inflation targeting (IT). However, questions regarding the strength of monetary policy transmission from interest rates to inflation and output have often stalled progress. We conduct a novel empirical analysis using Jordà’s (2005) approach for 40 EMDEs to shed a light on monetary transmission in these countries. We find that interest rate hikes reduce output growth and inflation, once we explicitly account for the behavior of the exchange rate. Having a modern monetary policy framework—adopting IT and independent and transparent central banks—matters more for monetary transmission than financial development.

What Explains Movements in the Peso/Dollar Exchange Rate?

What Explains Movements in the Peso/Dollar Exchange Rate?

Author: Mr.Yi Wu

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 2013-07-18

Total Pages: 22

ISBN-13: 1484393619

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This paper examines the factors affecting the weekly peso/dollar exchange rate movements between 1999 and 2013 using an error correction model. The model fits the historical data well. While copper price is the most important determinant of the peso exchange rate over the long run, other factors including interest rate differential, global financial distress, local pension funds’ derivative position, as well as the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing also affect the peso in the short run. The Central Bank of Chile’s foreign exchange interventions in 2008 and 2011 had a small impact on the peso.


Book Synopsis What Explains Movements in the Peso/Dollar Exchange Rate? by : Mr.Yi Wu

Download or read book What Explains Movements in the Peso/Dollar Exchange Rate? written by Mr.Yi Wu and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-07-18 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the factors affecting the weekly peso/dollar exchange rate movements between 1999 and 2013 using an error correction model. The model fits the historical data well. While copper price is the most important determinant of the peso exchange rate over the long run, other factors including interest rate differential, global financial distress, local pension funds’ derivative position, as well as the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing also affect the peso in the short run. The Central Bank of Chile’s foreign exchange interventions in 2008 and 2011 had a small impact on the peso.

Effectiveness of Central Banks and Their Role in the Global Financial Crisis

Effectiveness of Central Banks and Their Role in the Global Financial Crisis

Author: Shamshad Akhtar

Publisher: Asian Development Bank

Published: 2009-12-01

Total Pages: 318

ISBN-13: 9292547577

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This study examines the role and performance of central banks in low-income countries that have faced a range of domestic and external fragilities, aggravated by the global financial crisis that started in the United States and other advanced economies. It focuses on a select group of developing member countries of the Asian Development Bank in the Caucasus, Central Asia, and South Asia that have been and will continue to be vulnerable to adverse external developments.


Book Synopsis Effectiveness of Central Banks and Their Role in the Global Financial Crisis by : Shamshad Akhtar

Download or read book Effectiveness of Central Banks and Their Role in the Global Financial Crisis written by Shamshad Akhtar and published by Asian Development Bank. This book was released on 2009-12-01 with total page 318 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study examines the role and performance of central banks in low-income countries that have faced a range of domestic and external fragilities, aggravated by the global financial crisis that started in the United States and other advanced economies. It focuses on a select group of developing member countries of the Asian Development Bank in the Caucasus, Central Asia, and South Asia that have been and will continue to be vulnerable to adverse external developments.

Monetary and Currency Policy Management in Asia

Monetary and Currency Policy Management in Asia

Author: Masahiro Kawai

Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing

Published: 2012-01-01

Total Pages: 321

ISBN-13: 0857933353

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Asian economies strengthened their monetary and currency management after the Asian financial crisis of 19971998, and came through the global financial crisis of 20072009 relatively well. Nevertheless, the recent global crisis has presented new challenges. This book develops recommendations for monetary and currency policy in Asian economies aimed at promoting macroeconomic and financial stability in an environment of global economic shocks and volatile capital flows. Monetary and Currency Policy Management in Asia draws lessons from crises and makes concrete macroeconomic policy recommendations aimed at minimizing the impacts of an economic and financial downturn, and setting the stage for an early return to sustainable growth. The focus is on short-term measures related to the cycle. The three main areas addressed are: monetary policy measures, both conventional and unconventional, to achieve both macroeconomic and financial stability; exchange rate policy and foreign exchange reserve management, including the potential for regional cooperation to stabilize currency movements; and ways to ease the constraints on policy resulting from the so-called 'impossible trinity' of fixed exchange rates, open capital accounts and independent monetary policy. This is one of the first books since the global financial crisis to specifically and comprehensively address the implications of the crisis for monetary and currency policy in emerging market economies, especially in Asia. Presenting a broad menu of policy options for financial reform and regulation, the book will be of great interest to finance experts and policymakers in the region as well as academics and researchers of financial and Asian economics as well as economic development.


Book Synopsis Monetary and Currency Policy Management in Asia by : Masahiro Kawai

Download or read book Monetary and Currency Policy Management in Asia written by Masahiro Kawai and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2012-01-01 with total page 321 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Asian economies strengthened their monetary and currency management after the Asian financial crisis of 19971998, and came through the global financial crisis of 20072009 relatively well. Nevertheless, the recent global crisis has presented new challenges. This book develops recommendations for monetary and currency policy in Asian economies aimed at promoting macroeconomic and financial stability in an environment of global economic shocks and volatile capital flows. Monetary and Currency Policy Management in Asia draws lessons from crises and makes concrete macroeconomic policy recommendations aimed at minimizing the impacts of an economic and financial downturn, and setting the stage for an early return to sustainable growth. The focus is on short-term measures related to the cycle. The three main areas addressed are: monetary policy measures, both conventional and unconventional, to achieve both macroeconomic and financial stability; exchange rate policy and foreign exchange reserve management, including the potential for regional cooperation to stabilize currency movements; and ways to ease the constraints on policy resulting from the so-called 'impossible trinity' of fixed exchange rates, open capital accounts and independent monetary policy. This is one of the first books since the global financial crisis to specifically and comprehensively address the implications of the crisis for monetary and currency policy in emerging market economies, especially in Asia. Presenting a broad menu of policy options for financial reform and regulation, the book will be of great interest to finance experts and policymakers in the region as well as academics and researchers of financial and Asian economics as well as economic development.