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Volatility Spillovers and Contagion from Mature to Emerging Stock Markets

Author: John Beirne

Publisher:

Published: 2009

Total Pages: 42

ISBN-13:

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This paper examines volatility spillovers from mature to emerging stock markets and tests for changes in the transmission mechanism-contagion-during turbulences in mature markets. Tri-variate GARCH-BEKK models of returns in global (mature), regional, and local markets are estimated for 41 emerging market economies (EMEs), with a dummy capturing parameter shifts during turbulent episodes. LR tests suggest that mature markets influence conditional variances in many emerging markets. Moreover, spillover parameters change during turbulent episodes. Conditional variances in most EMEs rise during these episodes, but there is only limited evidence of shifts in conditional correlations between mature and emerging markets.

Book Synopsis Volatility Spillovers and Contagion from Mature to Emerging Stock Markets by : John Beirne

Download or read book Volatility Spillovers and Contagion from Mature to Emerging Stock Markets written by John Beirne and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines volatility spillovers from mature to emerging stock markets and tests for changes in the transmission mechanism-contagion-during turbulences in mature markets. Tri-variate GARCH-BEKK models of returns in global (mature), regional, and local markets are estimated for 41 emerging market economies (EMEs), with a dummy capturing parameter shifts during turbulent episodes. LR tests suggest that mature markets influence conditional variances in many emerging markets. Moreover, spillover parameters change during turbulent episodes. Conditional variances in most EMEs rise during these episodes, but there is only limited evidence of shifts in conditional correlations between mature and emerging markets.

Volatility Spillovers and Contagion from Mature to Emerging Stock Markets

Author: John Beirne

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Published: 2008-12-01

Total Pages: 40

ISBN-13: 9781451871449

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Book Synopsis Volatility Spillovers and Contagion from Mature to Emerging Stock Markets by : John Beirne

Download or read book Volatility Spillovers and Contagion from Mature to Emerging Stock Markets written by John Beirne and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2008-12-01 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines volatility spillovers from mature to emerging stock markets and tests for changes in the transmission mechanism-contagion-during turbulences in mature markets. Tri-variate GARCH-BEKK models of returns in global (mature), regional, and local markets are estimated for 41 emerging market economies (EMEs), with a dummy capturing parameter shifts during turbulent episodes. LR tests suggest that mature markets influence conditional variances in many emerging markets. Moreover, spillover parameters change during turbulent episodes. Conditional variances in most EMEs rise during these episodes, but there is only limited evidence of shifts in conditional correlations between mature and emerging markets.

Dynamics of Contagion and Spillover Effects

Author: Rakesh Shahani

Publisher:

Published: 2020

Total Pages: 18

ISBN-13:

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The present study makes an attempt to investigate the dynamics of contagion and spillover of volatility amongst stock markets of five economies which include three developed nations; US , UK and Japan and two Asian emerging economies viz. India and China The period of study is eleven years; Jan 1, 2009-Dec 31, 2019 and the data is collected for daily closing prices of the indices. The study makes a distinction between contagion and spillover whereby a shock is considered spillover if its impact is seen with a lag of one period only and no more lags after the shock has occurred, while contagion is a residual transmission after accounting for all other transmissions including spillover(Masson, P. (1998) ; Dungey, M. and Martin, V.L. (2007)) The results of the study revealed that there was substantial contagion and information flows from one market to another , be it developed or emerging . Further although US markets continue to play a major role in deciding the direction of markets, the importance of other markets has increased over the years. Further, US market on its own now appears to look for clues from both developed and emerging markets including India and China. On the other hand , the stock market of UK follows the return movement and volatility mainly from US markets. The two emerging markets of Asia, India and China observe a lot of co-movement in returns with spillovers being linked to the developed markets which includes US as global market and Japan as regional market. The study also tested for pre-conditions of stationarity, autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity and the model was modified wherever necessary in order to make the results of the study robust.

Book Synopsis Dynamics of Contagion and Spillover Effects by : Rakesh Shahani

Download or read book Dynamics of Contagion and Spillover Effects written by Rakesh Shahani and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 18 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The present study makes an attempt to investigate the dynamics of contagion and spillover of volatility amongst stock markets of five economies which include three developed nations; US , UK and Japan and two Asian emerging economies viz. India and China The period of study is eleven years; Jan 1, 2009-Dec 31, 2019 and the data is collected for daily closing prices of the indices. The study makes a distinction between contagion and spillover whereby a shock is considered spillover if its impact is seen with a lag of one period only and no more lags after the shock has occurred, while contagion is a residual transmission after accounting for all other transmissions including spillover(Masson, P. (1998) ; Dungey, M. and Martin, V.L. (2007)) The results of the study revealed that there was substantial contagion and information flows from one market to another , be it developed or emerging . Further although US markets continue to play a major role in deciding the direction of markets, the importance of other markets has increased over the years. Further, US market on its own now appears to look for clues from both developed and emerging markets including India and China. On the other hand , the stock market of UK follows the return movement and volatility mainly from US markets. The two emerging markets of Asia, India and China observe a lot of co-movement in returns with spillovers being linked to the developed markets which includes US as global market and Japan as regional market. The study also tested for pre-conditions of stationarity, autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity and the model was modified wherever necessary in order to make the results of the study robust.

Market Deregulations, Volatility and Spillover Effects

Author: Duc Khuong Nguyen

Publisher:

Published: 2007

Total Pages:

ISBN-13:

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This paper investigates the impact of stock market liberalizations on the volatility of emerging markets and volatility spillover effects between these markets and stock markets of the United Stated and Japan. First, our results reinforce previous findings in that emerging markets tend to generate higher volatility than developed markets. Moreover, some of the sudden changes in emerging market volatility appeared to be often associated with financial liberalizations. However, when we explicitly test the relationships between financial liberalization and volatility using regression analysis, we found conflicting results about the sign of financial liberalization effects. Second, we found that stock volatility is substantially transmitted among sample markets, especially between emerging markets of the same geographical location. It is also demonstrated that the multilateral transmission of volatility only increases slightly after liberalization programs. Finally, it is worth notifying that shocks to volatility in emerging markets, rather than those to volatility in the US and Japanese markets constitute a dominant source of return variability in foreign stock markets.

Book Synopsis Market Deregulations, Volatility and Spillover Effects by : Duc Khuong Nguyen

Download or read book Market Deregulations, Volatility and Spillover Effects written by Duc Khuong Nguyen and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates the impact of stock market liberalizations on the volatility of emerging markets and volatility spillover effects between these markets and stock markets of the United Stated and Japan. First, our results reinforce previous findings in that emerging markets tend to generate higher volatility than developed markets. Moreover, some of the sudden changes in emerging market volatility appeared to be often associated with financial liberalizations. However, when we explicitly test the relationships between financial liberalization and volatility using regression analysis, we found conflicting results about the sign of financial liberalization effects. Second, we found that stock volatility is substantially transmitted among sample markets, especially between emerging markets of the same geographical location. It is also demonstrated that the multilateral transmission of volatility only increases slightly after liberalization programs. Finally, it is worth notifying that shocks to volatility in emerging markets, rather than those to volatility in the US and Japanese markets constitute a dominant source of return variability in foreign stock markets.

Volatility and Predictability in National Stock Markets

Author: Anthony J. Richards

Publisher: International Monetary Fund

Published: 1996-04

Total Pages: 52

ISBN-13:

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This paper examines the evidence for the common assertion that the volatility of emerging stock markets has increased as a result of the liberalization of markets. A range of measures suggests that there has been no generalized increase in volatility in recent years; indeed, it appears that volatility may have tended to fall rather than rise on average. The paper also tests for the predictability of long-horizon returns in emerging markets. While there is evidence for positive autocorrelation in returns at horizons of one or two quarters, the autocorrelations appear to turn negative at horizons of a year or more. However, the magnitude of the apparent return reversals is not that much larger than reversals in some mature markets. One interpretation of the results would be that emerging markets have not consistently been subject to fads or bubbles, or at least no more so than in some industrial countries. In general, the liberalization and broadening of emerging markets should lead to a reduction in return volatility as risk is spread among a larger number of investors.

Book Synopsis Volatility and Predictability in National Stock Markets by : Anthony J. Richards

Download or read book Volatility and Predictability in National Stock Markets written by Anthony J. Richards and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1996-04 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the evidence for the common assertion that the volatility of emerging stock markets has increased as a result of the liberalization of markets. A range of measures suggests that there has been no generalized increase in volatility in recent years; indeed, it appears that volatility may have tended to fall rather than rise on average. The paper also tests for the predictability of long-horizon returns in emerging markets. While there is evidence for positive autocorrelation in returns at horizons of one or two quarters, the autocorrelations appear to turn negative at horizons of a year or more. However, the magnitude of the apparent return reversals is not that much larger than reversals in some mature markets. One interpretation of the results would be that emerging markets have not consistently been subject to fads or bubbles, or at least no more so than in some industrial countries. In general, the liberalization and broadening of emerging markets should lead to a reduction in return volatility as risk is spread among a larger number of investors.

Modeling Volatility Spillover Effects Between Developed Stock Markets and Asian Emerging Stock Markets

Author: Yanan Li

Publisher:

Published: 2013

Total Pages:

ISBN-13:

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Book Synopsis Modeling Volatility Spillover Effects Between Developed Stock Markets and Asian Emerging Stock Markets by : Yanan Li

Download or read book Modeling Volatility Spillover Effects Between Developed Stock Markets and Asian Emerging Stock Markets written by Yanan Li and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Structural Breaks in Volatility Spillovers Between International Financial Markets

Author: Robert Maderitsch

Publisher:

Published: 2015

Total Pages:

ISBN-13:

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This paper conducts an investigation of volatility transmission between stock markets in Hong Kong, Europe and the United States covering the time period from 2000 up to 2011. Using intradaily data we compute realized volatility time series for the three markets and employ a Heterogeneous Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model as our baseline econometric specification. Motivated by the presence of various crisis events contained in our sample, we detect time-variation and structural breaks in volatility spillovers. Particularly during the financial crisis of 2007, we find effects consistent with the notion of contagion, suggesting strong and sudden increases in the cross-market synchronization of chronologically succeeding volatilities. Investigating the role of mean breaks and conditional heteroskedasticity in the realized volatilities, however, we find the latter to be the main driver of breaks in volatility spillovers. Taking the volatility of realized volatilities into account, we find no evidence of contagion anymore.

Book Synopsis Structural Breaks in Volatility Spillovers Between International Financial Markets by : Robert Maderitsch

Download or read book Structural Breaks in Volatility Spillovers Between International Financial Markets written by Robert Maderitsch and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper conducts an investigation of volatility transmission between stock markets in Hong Kong, Europe and the United States covering the time period from 2000 up to 2011. Using intradaily data we compute realized volatility time series for the three markets and employ a Heterogeneous Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model as our baseline econometric specification. Motivated by the presence of various crisis events contained in our sample, we detect time-variation and structural breaks in volatility spillovers. Particularly during the financial crisis of 2007, we find effects consistent with the notion of contagion, suggesting strong and sudden increases in the cross-market synchronization of chronologically succeeding volatilities. Investigating the role of mean breaks and conditional heteroskedasticity in the realized volatilities, however, we find the latter to be the main driver of breaks in volatility spillovers. Taking the volatility of realized volatilities into account, we find no evidence of contagion anymore.

Comment on 'price Volatility and Volume Spillovers Between the Tokyo and New York Stock Markets'

Author: Allan William Kleidon

Publisher:

Published: 1994

Total Pages: 18

ISBN-13:

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Book Synopsis Comment on 'price Volatility and Volume Spillovers Between the Tokyo and New York Stock Markets' by : Allan William Kleidon

Download or read book Comment on 'price Volatility and Volume Spillovers Between the Tokyo and New York Stock Markets' written by Allan William Kleidon and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page 18 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

The Dynamics of Stock Market Volatility An Analysis of Spillover Effect in Asian Market

Author: Shah Arjun

Publisher: Arjun Shah

Published: 2023-02-28

Total Pages: 0

ISBN-13: 9784939733451

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Stock markets serve as the economic barometers. The relationship between the two capital markets can be studied as a proxy to understand the relation between the two economies. The movement of stock market not only reflects the nation's economic condition but also the confidence level the domestic and foreign investors have in an economy. The increase in integration between the global economies has resulted in convergence and co movement. The purpose of this study is to examine the presence of volatility and test the uniformity in the extent of volatility, to investigate the possible contagion effect between the selected developed and emerging market, to check for the spillover effect between the Indian stock market and the other five sampled markets and finally inspect the relationship between the volume and volatility in the capital markets of Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore, India, China and Philippines. Stratified- convenience sampling technique is used to pick the samples and daily index values are taken from the major index of these countries for a period of seven years. The time series data were tested for stationarity and normality using ADF, PP tests and Jarque-Bera test. Returns, SD, ARIMA, ARCH, GARCH, BEKK-GARCH, Granger causality test, VAR model and Variance decomposition techniques are used for the analysis.

Book Synopsis The Dynamics of Stock Market Volatility An Analysis of Spillover Effect in Asian Market by : Shah Arjun

Download or read book The Dynamics of Stock Market Volatility An Analysis of Spillover Effect in Asian Market written by Shah Arjun and published by Arjun Shah. This book was released on 2023-02-28 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Stock markets serve as the economic barometers. The relationship between the two capital markets can be studied as a proxy to understand the relation between the two economies. The movement of stock market not only reflects the nation's economic condition but also the confidence level the domestic and foreign investors have in an economy. The increase in integration between the global economies has resulted in convergence and co movement. The purpose of this study is to examine the presence of volatility and test the uniformity in the extent of volatility, to investigate the possible contagion effect between the selected developed and emerging market, to check for the spillover effect between the Indian stock market and the other five sampled markets and finally inspect the relationship between the volume and volatility in the capital markets of Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore, India, China and Philippines. Stratified- convenience sampling technique is used to pick the samples and daily index values are taken from the major index of these countries for a period of seven years. The time series data were tested for stationarity and normality using ADF, PP tests and Jarque-Bera test. Returns, SD, ARIMA, ARCH, GARCH, BEKK-GARCH, Granger causality test, VAR model and Variance decomposition techniques are used for the analysis.

Time Varying Volatility Indexes and Their Determinants

Author: Nalin Prasad

Publisher:

Published: 2014

Total Pages: 43

ISBN-13:

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This paper investigates volatility spillovers across 16 stock markets of both advanced and emerging economies using the spillover index methodology put forward by Diebold and Yilmaz (2012). Realised volatility as defined by Andersen et al (2003) calculated from high frequency data form the basis on which these spillovers are calculated. They are compared with spillovers based on the volatility estimators put forward by Garman and Klass (1980), Parkinson (1980) and the univariate GARCH methodology (Bollerslev, 1986) used in many previous studies. We find that the time series of total spillovers is similar regardless of the volatility proxy used and spillovers increased dramatically during the global financial crisis of 2008 and the European sovereign debt crisis that followed. More differences arise when comparing directional spillovers to and from individual stock markets, particularly when using GARCH based estimations. We find that the larger stock markets from the advanced western economies, particularly the US, dominate volatility transmission to other markets. Emerging markets such as China, India and Brazil are still relatively isolated and contribute less to global volatility spillovers, though their contribution has increased considerably after 2006. We investigate potential determinants of net spillovers between markets and find that the level of volatility in one market relative to that in other markets is the most important factor in increasing spillovers transmitted.

Book Synopsis Time Varying Volatility Indexes and Their Determinants by : Nalin Prasad

Download or read book Time Varying Volatility Indexes and Their Determinants written by Nalin Prasad and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates volatility spillovers across 16 stock markets of both advanced and emerging economies using the spillover index methodology put forward by Diebold and Yilmaz (2012). Realised volatility as defined by Andersen et al (2003) calculated from high frequency data form the basis on which these spillovers are calculated. They are compared with spillovers based on the volatility estimators put forward by Garman and Klass (1980), Parkinson (1980) and the univariate GARCH methodology (Bollerslev, 1986) used in many previous studies. We find that the time series of total spillovers is similar regardless of the volatility proxy used and spillovers increased dramatically during the global financial crisis of 2008 and the European sovereign debt crisis that followed. More differences arise when comparing directional spillovers to and from individual stock markets, particularly when using GARCH based estimations. We find that the larger stock markets from the advanced western economies, particularly the US, dominate volatility transmission to other markets. Emerging markets such as China, India and Brazil are still relatively isolated and contribute less to global volatility spillovers, though their contribution has increased considerably after 2006. We investigate potential determinants of net spillovers between markets and find that the level of volatility in one market relative to that in other markets is the most important factor in increasing spillovers transmitted.